Modeling the evolution of riparian woodlands facing climate change in three european rivers with contrasting flow regimes

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 10, 2014, Pages

  Rivaes, Rui P ^a   Rodríguez González, Patricia M ^a   Ferreira, Maria Teresa ^a   Pinheiro, António N ^b   Politti, Emilio ^c   Egger, Gregory ^c   García Arias, Alicia ^d   Francés, Felix ^d  

^a Universidade de Lisboa   (Portugal)

^b INSTITUTO SUPERIOR TÉCNICO   (Portugal)

^c Environmental Consulting Klagenfurt   (Austria)

^d UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA DE VALÈNCIA   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; EUROPE; FLOODING; FOREST; HYDROLOGY; RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEM; RIVER; SHEAR STRESS; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; WATER FLOW; WATER TABLE; WATERSHED; ECOSYSTEM; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; EUROPE; FORESTS; HYDROLOGY; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RIVERS; SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84908190435     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110200     Document Type: Article

References (110)

1. Bach W (1976) Global air pollution and climatic change.Reviews of Geophysics 14:429-474.
2. Benton GS (1970) Carbon dioxide and its role in climate change. National Academy of Sciences. pp. 898-899.
3. Hansen J, Johnson D, Lacis A, Lebedeff S, Lee P, et al. (1981) Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Science 213: 957-966.
4. Lovelock JE (1971) Air pollution and climatic change. Atmospheric Environment (1967) 5: 403-411.
5. IPCC (2008) Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Team CW, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A, editors. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 104 p.
6. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, et al. (2007) Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, et al., editors. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. pp. 747-845.
7. Alcamo J, Moreno JM, Nováky B, Bindi M, Corobov R, et al. (2007) Europe. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, editors. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 541-580.
8. Christensen J, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change 81: 7-30.
9. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, et al. (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, et al., editors. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdon and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. pp. 848-940.
10. Schneider C, Laizé CLR, Acreman MC, Flörke M (2013) How will climate change modify flow regimes in Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 325-339.
11. Nijssen B, O'Donnell G, Hamlet A, Lettenmaier D (2001) Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change. Climatic Change 50: 143-175.
12. Serrat-Capdevila A, Valdés JB, Pérez JG, Baird K, Mata LJ, et al. (2007) Modeling climate change impacts-and uncertainty-on the hydrology of a riparian system: The San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora). Journal of Hydrology 347: 48-66.
13. Serrat-Capdevila A, Scott RL, James Shuttleworth W, Valdés JB (2011) Estimating evapotranspiration under warmer climates: Insights from a semiarid riparian system. Journal of Hydrology 399: 1-11.
14. Verzano K, Menzel L (2007) Snow conditions in mountains and climate change-a global view. In: Marks D, Hock R, Lehning M, Hayashi M, Gurney R, editors; Perugia, IT. IAHS Proceedings and Reports. pp. 147-154.
15. Alcamo J, Flörke M, Märker M (2007) Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal 52: 247-275.
16. Murray SJ, Foster PN, Prentice IC (2012) Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology 448-449: 14-29.
17. Poff LN, Allan JD, Bain MB, Karr JR, Prestegaard KL, et al. (1997) The natural flow regime. Bioscience 47: 769-784.
18. Lloyd NJ, Quinn G, Thoms MC, Arthington AH, Gawne B, et al. (2004) Does flow modification cause geomorphological and ecological response in rivers? A literature review from an Australian perspective. Technical report 1/2004. Canberra, Australia: CRC for Freshwater Ecology. 0975164202. 57 p. http://www.library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/director?id=V1114450.
19. Poff LN, Zimmerman JKH (2010) Ecological responses to altered flow regimes: a literature review to inform the science and management of environmental flows. Freshwater Biology 55: 11.
20. Stromberg JC, Lite SJ, Dixon MD (2010) Effects of stream flow patterns on riparian vegetation of a semiarid river: implications for a changing climate. River Research and Applications 26: 712-729.
21. Jenkins M (2003) Prospects for Biodiversity. Science 302: 1175-1177.
22. Costanza R, d'Arge R, de Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, et al. (1997) The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387: 253-260.
23. Perry LG, Andersen DC, Reynolds LV, Nelson SM, Shafroth PB (2012) Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America. Global Change Biology 18: 821-842.
24. Karrenberg S, Edwards PJ, Kollmann J (2002) The life history of Salicaceae living in the active zone of floodplains. Freshwater Biology 47: 733-748.
25. Merritt DM, Scott ML, Poff LN, Auble GT, Lytle DA (2010) Theory, methods and tools for determining environmental flows for riparian vegetation: riparian vegetation-flow response guilds. Freshwater Biology 55: 206-225.
26. Rood SB, Braatne JH, Hughes FMR (2003) Ecophysiology of riparian cottonwoods: stream flow dependency, water relations and restoration. Tree Physiology 23: 1113-1124.
27. Junk WJ, Bayley PB, Sparks RE (1989) The Flood Pulse Concept in River-Floodplain Systems. In: Dodge DP, editor. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. pp. 110-127.
28. Naiman RJ, Décamps H (1997) The ecology of interfaces: Riparian zones. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28: 621-658.
29. NRC NRC (2002) Riparian Areas: Functions and Strategies for Management. Washington, D.C., USA: The National Academies Press. 444 p.
30. McClain M, Boyer E, Dent L, Gergel S, Grimm N, et al. (2003) Biogeochemical Hot Spots and Hot Moments at the Interface of Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems. Ecosystems 6: 301-312.
31. Tockner K, Stanford J (2002) Riverine flood plains: present state and future trends. Environmental Conservation 29: 308-330.
32. Tockner K, Bunn SE, Gordon C, Naiman RJ, Quinn GP, et al. (2008) Flood plains: critically threatened ecosystems. In: Polunin NVC, editor. Aquatic Ecosystems: trends and global prospects. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. pp. 482.
33. Broadmeadow S, Nisbet TR (2004) The effects of riparian forest management on the freshwater environment: a literature review of best management practice. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 8: 286-305.
34. Naiman RJ, Decamps H, Pollock M (1993) The Role of Riparian Corridors in Maintaining Regional Biodiversity. Ecological Applications 3: 209-212.
35. Casatti L, Teresa FB, Gonçalves-Souza T, Bessa E, Manzotti AR, et al. (2012) From forests to cattail: how does the riparian zone influence stream fish? Neotropical Ichthyology 10: 205-214.
36. Blackwell MSA, Maltby E, editors (2006) How to use floodplains for flood risk reduction. Luxembourg, Belgium: European Communities. 144 p.
37. Daily GC, editor (1997) Nature's Services-Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Washington D. C., USA: Island press. 392 p.
38. Berges SA (2009) Ecosystem services of riparian areas: stream bank stability and avian habitat. Ames, Iowa, USA: Iowa State University. 106 p.
39. Flather CH, Cordell HK (1995) Outdoor Recreation: Historical and Anticipated Trends. In: Knight RL, Gutzwiller KJ, editors. Wildlife and Recreationists-Coexistence through management and research. Washington D. C., USA: Island press. pp. 372.
40. Holmes TP, Bergstrom JC, Huszar E, Kask SB, Orr Iii F (2004) Contingent valuation, net marginal benefits, and the scale of riparian ecosystem restoration. Ecological Economics 49: 19-30.
41. Naiman RJ, Bilby RE, Bisson PA (2000) Riparian Ecology and Management in the Pacific Coastal Rain Forest. Bioscience 50: 996-1011.
42. Nehlsen W, Williams JE, Lichatowich JA (1991) Pacific Salmon at the Crossroads: Stocks at Risk from California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington. Fisheries 16: 4-21.
43. Loučková B (2012) Vegetation-landform assemblages along selected rivers in the Czech Republic, a decade after a 500-year flood event. River Research and Applications 28: 1275-1288.
44. Stromberg JC, Tluczek MGF, Hazelton AF, Ajami H (2010) A century of riparian forest expansion following extreme disturbance: Spatio-temporal change in Populus/Salix/Tamarix forests along the Upper San Pedro River, Arizona, USA. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 1181-1198.
45. Wohl E, Angermeier PL, Bledsoe B, Kondolf GM, MacDonnell L, et al. (2005) River restoration. Water Resources Research 41: W10301.
46. Auble G, Scott M, Friedman J (2005) Use of individualistic streamflow-vegetation relations along the Fremont River, Utah, USA to assess impacts of flow alteration on wetland and riparian areas. Wetlands 25: 143-154.
47. Camporeale C, Ridolfi L (2006) Riparian vegetation distribution induced by river flow variability: A stochastic approach. Water Resources Research 42: W10415.
48. Dixon MD, Turner MG (2006) Simulated recruitment of riparian trees and shrubs under natural and regulated flow regimes on the Wisconsin River, USA. River Research and Applications 22: 1057-1083.
49. Orellana F, Verma P, Loheide SP II, Daly E (2012) Monitoring and modeling water-vegetation interactions in groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Reviews of Geophysics 50: RG3003.
50. Primack AB (2000) Simulation of climate-change effects on riparian vegetation in the Pere Marquette River, Michigan. Wetlands 20: 538-547.
51. Tealdi S, Camporeale C, Ridolfi L (2013) Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 318: 13-21.
52. Winemiller KO, Flecker AS, Hoeinghaus DJ (2010) Patch dynamics and environmental heterogeneity in lotic ecosystems. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 29: 84-99.
53. Politti E, Egger G, Angermann K, Blamauer B, Klösch M, et al. (2011) Evaluating climate change impacts on Alpine floodplain vegetation. In: C. . Chomette & Steiger E, editor; 15-17 June; Clermont-Ferrand, France. pp. 177-182.
54. Rivaes R, Rodríguez-González PM, Albuquerque A, Pinheiro AN, Egger G, et al. (2012) Climate change impacts on Mediterranean riparian vegetation; 5th International Perspective on Water Resources & the Environment (IPWE 2012). January 4th-7th; Marrakech, Morocco.
55. Mader H, Steidl T, Wimmer R (1996) Abflußregime österreichischer Fließgewässer. Wien, AUT: Umweltbundesamt. 192 p.
56. Mearns LO, Hulme M, Carter TR, Leemans R, Lal M, et al. (2001) Climate Scenario Development. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, et al., editors. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. pp. 739-768.
57. Nakicenovik N, Swart R, editors (2000) Emission Scenarios-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 570 p.
58. Santos FD, Forbes K, Moita R, editors (2002) Climate Change in Portugal, Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures-SIAM project. Lisbon, Portugal: Gradiva. 454 p.
59. Stanzel P, Nachtnebel HP (2010) Mögliche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den Wasserhaushalt und die Wasserkraftnutzung in Osterreich. Osterreichische Wasser-und Abfallwirtschaft 62: 180-187.
60. Moreno JM, Aguiló E, Alonso S, Cobelas MA, Anadón R, et al. (2005) A Preliminary Assessment of the Impacts in Spain due to the Effects of Climate Change. Madrid, SP: Ministerio del Medio Ambiente.
61. Santos FD, Miranda P, editors (2006) Alterações climáticas em Portugal cenários, impactos e medidas de adaptação, Projecto SIAM II. Lisbon, Portugal: Gradiva. 506 p.
62. Crawford NH, Linsley RK (1966) Digital simulation in hydrology: Stanford Watershed Model IV. Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University. 210 p.
63. Linsley RK, Crawford NH (1960) Computation of a synthetic streamflow record on a digital computer. International Association of Scientific Hydrology 5: 526-538.
64. Hernández L (2007) Efectos del Cambio Climático en los Sistemas Complejos de Recursos Hídricos. Aplicación a la Cuenca del Jucar. Valenvia, SP: Universidad Politécnica de Valencia.
65. Benjankar R, Egger G, Jorde K, Goodwin P, Glenn NF (2011) Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA. Journal of Environmental Management 92: 3058-3070.
66. Stanley EH, Powers SM, Lottig NR (2010) The evolving legacy of disturbance in stream ecology: concepts, contributions, and coming challenges. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 29: 67-83.
67. Stromberg JC (2001) Restoration of riparian vegetation in the south-western United States: importance of flow regimes and fluvial dynamism. Journal of Arid Environments 49: 17.
68. Lake PS (2000) Disturbance, patchiness, and diversity in streams. The North American Benthological Society 19: 573-592.
69. Resh VH, Brown AV, Covich AP, Gurtz ME, Li HW, et al. (1988) The Role of Disturbance in Stream Ecology. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 7: 433-455.
70. White PS (1979) Pattern, process, and natural disturbance in vegetation. The Botanical Review 45: 229-299.
71. Tockner K, Malard F, Ward JV (2000) An extension of the flood pulse concept. Hydrological processes 14: 2861-2883.
72. Benjankar R, Egger G, Jorde K (2009) Development of a dynamic floodplain vegetation model for the Kootenai river, USA: concept and methodology. 7th ISE and 8th HIC.
73. Egger G, Politti E, Woo H, Cho K, Park M, et al. (2011) A dynamic vegetation model as a tool for ecological impact assessments of dam operation. Journal of Hydro-environment Research 6: 151-161.
74. García-Arias A, Francés F, Andrés-Doménech I, Vallés F, Garófano-Gómez V, et al. (2011) Modeling the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of Mediterranean riparian vegetation in a reach of the Mijares River (Spain). In: C. Chomette & Steiger E, editor; EUROMECH Colloquium 523. 15-17 June; Clermont-Ferrand, France. pp. 153-157.
75. García-Arias A, Francés F, Ferreira T, Egger G, Martínez-Capel F, et al. (2013) Implementing a dynamic riparian vegetation model in three European river systems. Ecohydrology 6: 635-651.
76. Rivaes R, Rodríguez-González PM, Albuquerque A, Pinheiro AN, Egger G, et al. (2013) Riparian vegetation responses to altered flow regimes driven by climate change in Mediterranean rivers. Ecohydrology 6: 413-424.
77. RIPFLOW (2011) Riparian vegetation modelling for the assessment of environmental flow regimes and climate change impacts within the WFD. 238 p. http://www.iiama.upv.es/RipFlow/publications/08-RIPFLOW%20Project%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf.
78. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, AT: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
79. Bendix J, Hupp CR (2000) Hydrological and geomorphological impacts on riparian plant communities. Hydrological processes 14: 2977-2990.
80. Johnson WC (1999) Response of Riparian Vegetation to Streamflow Regulation and Land Use in the Great Plains. Great Plains Research Vol. 9: pp.-357-369.
81. Tabacchi E, Correll DL, Hauer R, Pinay G, Planty-Tabacchi A-M, et al. (1998) Development, maintenance and role of riparian vegetation in the river landscape. Freshwater Biology 40: 497-516.
82. Pardé M (1955) Fleuves et rivières. Paris: Armand Colin. 241 p.
83. L'vovich MI ( 1979) World water resources and their future. Chelsea, Michigan, USA: American Geophysical Union. 415 p.
84. Wrzesiński D (2013) Uncertainty of flow regime characteristics of rivers in europe. QUAESTIONES GEOGRAPHICAE 32: 43-53.
85. Friedman JM, Lee VJ (2002) Extreme floods, channel change, and riparian forests along ephemeral streams. Ecological Monographs 72: 16.
86. Whited DC, Lorang MS, Harner MJ, Hauner FR, Kimball JS, et al. (2007) Climate, hydrologic disturbance, and succession: drivers of floodplain pattern. Ecology 88: 940-953.
87. Gurnell A (2014) Plants as river system engineers. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 39: 4-25.
88. Camporeale C, Perucca E, Ridolfi L, Gurnell AM (2013) MODELING THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN RIVER MORPHODYNAMICS AND RIPARIAN VEGETATION. Reviews of Geophysics 51: 379-414.
89. Gurnell AM, Bertoldi W, Corenblit D (2012) Changing river channels: The roles of hydrological processes, plants and pioneer fluvial landforms in humid temperate, mixed load, gravel bed rivers. Earth-Science Reviews 111: 129-141.
90. Corenblit D, Baas ACW, Bornette G, Darrozes J, Delmotte S, et al. (2011) Feedbacks between geomorphology and biota controlling Earth surface processes and landforms: A review of foundation concepts and current understandings. Earth-Science Reviews 106: 307-331.
91. Corenblit D, Tabacchi E, Steiger J, Gurnell AM (2007) Reciprocal interactions and adjustments between fluvial landforms and vegetation dynamics in river corridors: A review of complementary approaches. Earth-Science Reviews 84: 56-86.
92. Politti E, Egger G, Angermann K, Rivaes R, Blamauer B, et al. (2014) Evaluating climate change impacts on Alpine floodplain vegetation. Hydro-biologia: 1-19.
93. Auble G, Scott M (1998) Fluvial disturbance patches and cottonwood recruitment along the upper Missouri River, Montana. Wetlands 18: 546-556.
94. Johnson SL, Swanson FJ, Grant GE, Wondzell SM (2000) Riparian forest disturbances by a mountain flood - the influence of floated wood. Hydrological processes 14: 3031-3050.
95. Aguiar FC, Ferreira MT (2005) Human-disturbed landscapes: effects on composition and integrity of riparian woody vegetation in the Tagus River basin, Portugal. Environmental Conservation 32: 30-41.
96. Ferreira MT, Aguiar CF, Nogueira C (2005) Changes in riparian woods over space and time: Influence of environment and land use. Forest Ecology and Management 212: 145-159.
97. Pettit NE, Froend RH, Davies PM (2001) Identifying the natural flow regime and the relationship with riparian vegetation for two contrasting western Australian rivers. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management 17: 201-215.
98. Shafroth PB, Stromberg JC, Patten DT (2002) Riparian vegetation response to altered disturbance and stress regimes. Ecological Applications 12: 107-123.
99. Stromberg JC, Tiller R, Richter B (1996) Effects of Groundwater Decline on Riparian Vegetation of Semiarid Regions: The San Pedro, Arizona. Ecological Applications 6: 113-131.
100. Stromberg JC, Lite SJ, Marler R, Paradzick C, Shafroth PB, et al. (2007) Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: the Tamarix case. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16: 381-393.
101. Frederick KD, Major DC (1997) Climate Change and Water Resources. Climatic Change 37: 7-23.
102. Hoffman MT, Rohde RF (2011) Rivers Through Time: Historical Changes in the Riparian Vegetation of the Semi-Arid, Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa in Response to Climate and Land Use. Journal of the History of Biology 44: 59-80.
103. Schneider C, Flörke M, Geerling G, Duel H, Grygoruk M, et al. (2011) The future of European floodplain wetlands under a changing climate. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2: 106-122.
104. Tague C, Seaby L, Hope A (2009) Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies. Climate Change 93: 137-155.
105. Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH, editors (1996) Climate Change 1995-Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. 879 p.
106. Hultine KR, Bush SE (2011) Ecohydrological consequences of non-native riparian vegetation in the southwestern United States: A review from an ecophysiological perspective. Water Resources Research 47: W07542.
107. Hutchinson GE (1953) The Concept of Pattern in Ecology. Proceedings of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia 105: 1-12.
108. Muneepeerakul R, Rinaldo A, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2007) Effects of river flow scaling properties on riparian width and vegetation biomass. Water Resources Research 43: W12406.
109. Gran K, Paola C (2001) Riparian vegetation controls on braided stream dynamics. Water Resources Research 37: 3275-3283.
110. Johnson WC (2002) Riparian vegetation diversity along regulated rivers: contribution of novel and relict habitats. Freshwater Biology 47: 749-759.