The future of European floodplain wetlands under a changing climate

Journal of Water and Climate Change

Volumn 2, Issue 2-3, 2011, Pages 106-122

  Schneider, Christof ^a   Flörke, Martina ^a   Geerling, Gertjan ^b   Duel, Harm ^b   Grygoruk, Mateusz ^c   Okruszko, Tomasz ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KASSEL   (Germany)

^b DELTARES   (Netherlands)

^c WARSAW UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES   (Poland)

Author keywords

Climate change; Ecological impacts; Floodplain wetlands; Floods; Partial duration series; WaterGAP

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS; CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE; CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS; FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION; FLOODPLAIN WETLANDS; PARTIAL DURATION SERIES; WATERGAP;

BANKS (BODIES OF WATER); BIODIVERSITY; CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGY; FISH; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WETLANDS;

FLOODS;

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOLOGICAL IMPACT; FLOODPLAIN; HUMAN ACTIVITY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; RIVER DISCHARGE; WETLAND;

BENELUX; ENGLAND; FRANCE; SPAIN; UNITED KINGDOM;

AVES; VERTEBRATA;

EID: 80052931067     PISSN: 20402244     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2011.020     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Adamowski, K., Liang, G. C. & Patry, G. G. 1998 Annual maxima and partial duration flood series analysis by parametric and non-parametric methods. Hydrol. Processes 12, 1685-1699.
2. Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T. & Siebert, S. 2003 Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 317-337.
3. Alcamo, J., Flörke, M. & Märker, M. 2007 Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climate changes. Hydrol. Sci. J. 52, 247-275.
4. Amoros, C. & Wade, P. M. 1996 Ecological successions. In: Fluvial Hydrosystems (G. Petts & C. Amoros). Chapman & Hall, London, pp. 211-241.
5. Arnell, N. W. 1999 Climate change and global water resources. Glob. Environ. Change 9, 31-49.
6. Ashkar, F. & Rousselle, J. 1983 Some remarks on the truncation used in partial flood series models. Water Resour. Res. 19, 477-480.
7. Begueria, S. 2005 Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related to the choice of the threshold value. J. Hydrol. 303, 215-230.
8. Bunn, S. E. & Arthington, A. H. 2002 Basic principles and ecological consequences of altered flow regimes for aquatic biodiversity. Environ Manage 30, 492-507.
9. Burkhart, M. 2001 River corridor plants (Stromtalpflanzen) in Central European lowland: a review of a poorly understood plant distribution pattern. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 10, 449-468.
10. Casanova, M. T. & Brock, M. A. 2000 How do depth, duration and frequency of flooding influence the establishment of wetland plant communities? Plant Ecol 147, 237-250.
11. Castro, J. M. & Jackson, P. L. 2001 Bankfull discharge recurrence intervals and regional hydraulic geometry relationships: patterns in the Pacific Northwest, USA. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 37, 1249-1262.
12. Choulakian, V., El-Jabi, N. & Moussi, J. 1990 On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena. Stoch. Hydrol. Hydraul. 4, 217-226.
13. Christensen, J. H. & Christensen, O. B. 2007 A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Clim. Change 81, 7-30.
14. Commission of the European Community (CEC) 1992 Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora. Official journal of the European communities No L 206/7.
15. Cunnane, C. 1979 A note on the Poisson assumption in partial duration series models. Water Resour. Res. 15, 489-494.
16. Dankers, R. & Feyen, L. 2008 Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 113, 1-17.
17. Davison, A. C. & Smith, R. L. 1990 Models for exceedances over high thresholds. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 52, 393-442.
18. Deidda, R. & Puliga, M. 2009 Performances of some parameter estimator of the generalized Pareto distribution over rounded-off samples. Phys. Chem. Earth. 34, 626-634.
19. Döll, P. & Lehner, B. 2002 Validation of a new global 30-min drainage direction map. J. Hydrol. 258, 214-231.
20. Döll, P., Kaspar, F. & Lehner, B. 2003 A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation. J. Hydrol. 270, 105-134.
21. Dunne, T. & Leopold, L. B. 1978 Water in Environmental Planning. W.H. Freeman and Company, New York, pp. 33-490.
22. Dury, G. H. 1977 Underfit streams: retrospect, perspect and prospect. In: River Channel Changes (K. J. Gregory, ed.) pp. 281-293.
23. EEA (European Environment Agency) 2004 Corine Land Cover 2000 - Mapping a decade of change Document Actions. Tech. Rep. Brochure No 4/2004.
24. Flörke, M. & Alcamo, J. 2005 European outlook on water use. Technical Report prepared for the European Environment Agency. Kongens Nytorv. 6. DK-1050. Copenhagen, DK Available from: http//scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/reports/fol949029, 2005.
25. Frederick, K. D. & Major, D. C. 1997 Climate change and water resources. Clim. Change 37, 7-23.
26. Geerling, G. W., Ragas, A. M. J., Leuven, R. S. E. W., van den Berg, J. H., Breedveld, M., Liefhebber, D. & Smits, A. J. M. 2006 Succession and rejuvenation in floodplains along the river Allier (France). Hydrobiologica 565, 71-86.
27. Geng, S., Penning, F. W. T. & Supit, I. 1986 A simple method for generating daily rainfall data. Agric. For. Meteor. 36, 363-376.
28. Gerard, M., El Kahloun, M., Rymen, J., Beauchard, O. & Meire, P. 2008 Importance of mowing and flood frequency in promoting species richness in restored floodplains. J. Appl. Ecol. 45, 1780-1789.
29. Glenz, C., Schlaepfer, R., Iorgulescu, I. & Kienast, F. 2006 Flooding tolerance of Central European tree and shrub species. Forest Ecol. Manage. 235, 1-13.
30. Harman, W. A., Jennings, G. D., Patterson, J. M., Clinton, D. R., Slate, L. O., Jessup, A. G., Everhart, J. R. & Smith, R. E. 1999 Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships for North Carolina streams. In: Proceedings of the Wildland Hydrology Symposium (D. S. Olsen, J. P. Potyondy & M. T. Bozeman, eds.). American Water Resources Association.
31. Henrichs, T. & Kaspar, F. 2001 Baseline-A: A reference scenario of global change. In: Eurowasser: Model-Based Assessment of European Water Resources and Hydrology in The Face of Global Change (B. Lehner, T. Henrichs, P. Döll & J. Alcamo, eds.). Kassel World Water Series - Report No. 5, 4.1-4.8. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel.
32. Hosking, J. R. M. & Wallis, J. R. 1987 Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalized pareto distribution. Technometrics 29, 339-349.
33. Hughes, F. M. R. 1997 Floodplain biogeomorphology. Prog. Physic. Geog. 21, 501-529.
34. IPCC 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2001 - The Scientific Basis (J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. MaskellC. A. Johnson, eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
35. IPCC 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis (S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller, eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
36. Jenkins, M. 2003 Prospects for biodiversity. Science 302, 1175-1177.
37. Junk, W. J., Bayley, P. B. & Sparks, R. E. 1989 The flood pulse concept in river-floodplain systems. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 106, 110-127.
38. Kite, G. W. 1977 Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, CO.
39. Kundzewicz, Z., Mata, L., Arnell, N., DÄoll, P., Kabat, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z. & Shiklomanov, I. 2007 Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
40. Lang, M., Ouarda, T. B. M. J. & Bobee, B. 1999 Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modelling. J. Hydrol. 225, 103-117.
41. Langbein, W. B. 1949 Annual floods and the partial duration series. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 30, 879-881.
42. Langhans, S. D. & Tockner, K. 2006 The role of timing, duration, and frequency of inundation in controlling leaf litter decomposition in a river-floodplain ecosystem (Tagliamento, northeastern Italy). Oecologia 147, 501-509.
43. Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T. & Kaspar, F. 2006 Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: A continental, integrated analysis. Clim. Change 75, 273-299.
44. Lehner, B., Verdin, K. & Jarvis, A. 2008 New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 89, 93-94.
45. Leopold, L. B., Wolman, M. G. & Miller, J. P. 1964 Fluvial Processes in Geomorphology. Dover Publications (reprinted 1995).
46. Lindholm, M., Hessen, D. O., Mosepele, K. & Wolski, P. 2007 Food webs and energy fluxes on a seasonal floodplain: The influence of flood size. Wetlands 27, 775-784.
47. Madsen, H., Rasmussen, P. F. & Rosbjerg, D. 1997 Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events 1. At-site modeling. Water Resour. Res. 33, 747-757.
48. Malmqvist, B. & Rundle, S. 2002 Threats to the running water ecosystem of the world. Environ. Conserv. 29, 134-153.
49. Marston, R. A., Girel, J., Pautou, G., Piegay, H., Bravard, J.-P. & Arneson, C. 2001 Channel metamorphosis, floodplain disturbance, and vegetation development: Ain River, France. Geomorphology 13, 121-131.
50. Merritt, D. M., Scott, M. L., Poff, N. L., Auble, G. T. & Lytle, D. A. 2009 Theory, methods and tools for determining environmental flows for riparian vegetation: riparian vegetation-flow response guilds. Freshw. Biol. 55, 206-225.
51. Mitchell, T. D. & Jones, P. D. 2005 An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 693-712.
52. Mitchell, T. D., Carter, T. R., Jones, P. D., Hulme, M. & New, M. 2004 A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901- 2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 55.
53. Mosley, M. P. 1981 Semi-determinate hydraulic geometry of river channels, South Island, New Zealand. Earth Surf Proc Land 6, 127-137.
54. Navratil, O., Albert, M. B., Herouin, E. & Gresillon, J. M. 2006 Determination of bankfull discharge magnitude and frequency: comparison of methods on 16 gravel-bed river reaches. Earth Surf Proc Land 31, 1345-1363.
55. Nguyen, V. T. V. 2002 On modelling of extreme hydrologic processes. In: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Non-Structural Measures for Water Management Problems, London, Ontario. October 18-20, 2001. UNESCO IHP-V Technical Documents in Hydrology No. 56, 167-180.
56. Nilsson, C., Reidy, C. A., Dynesius, M. & Revenga, C. 2005 Fragmentation and flow regulation of the world's large river systems. Science 308, 405-408.
57. Petit, F. & Pauquet, A. 1997 Bankfull discharge recurrence interval in gravel-bed rivers. Earth Surf. Proc. Land. 22, 685-693.
58. Petts, G. E. 2000 A perspective on the abiotic processes sustaining the ecological integrity of running waters. Hydrobiologia 422-423, 15-27.
59. Petts, G. E. & Amoros, C. 1996 Fluvial Hydrosystems. Chapman and Hall, London.
60. Pickands, J. 1975 Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann. Stat. 3, 119-131.
61. Predick, K. I. & Turner, M. G. 2008 Landscape configuration and flood frequency influence invasive shrubs in floodplain forests of the Wisconsin River (USA). J. Ecol. 96, 91-102.
62. Prudhomme, C. & Davies, H. 2009 Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the uk. part 1: baseline climate. Clim. Change 93, 177-195.
63. Richter, B. D. & Richter, H. E. 2000 Prescribing flood regimes to sustain riparian ecosystems along meandering rivers. Conserv. Biol. 14, 1467-1478.
64. Rosbjerg, D., Madsen, H. & Rasmussen, P. F. 1992 Prediction in partial duration series with generalized pareto-distributed exceedances. Water Resour. Res. 28, 3001-3010.
65. Shane, R. M. & Lynn, W. R. 1964 Mathematical model for flood risk evaluation. J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 90 (HY6), 1-20.
66. Sweet, W. V. & Geratz, J. W. 2003 Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships and recurrence intervals for North Carolina's coastal plain. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 39, 861-871.
67. Tockner, K., Malard, F. & Ward, J. V. 2000 An extention of the flood pulse concept. Hydrol. Proc. 14, 2861-2883.
68. Todorovic, P. & Zelenhasic, E. 1970 A stochastic model for flood analysis. Water Resour. Res. 6, 1641-1648.
69. Van de Wolfshaar, K. E., Ruizeveld De Winter, A. C., Straatsma, M. W., Van den, N. G. M. & de Leeuw, J. J. 2010 Estimating spawning habitat availability in flooded areas of the river Waal, the Netherlands. River Res. Appl. 26, 487-498.
70. Van Eck, W. H. J. M., Van der Steeg, H. M., Blom, C. W. P. M. & De Kroon, H. 2004 Is tolerance to summer flooding correlated with distribution patterns in river floodplains? A comparative study of 20 terrestrial grassland species. Oikos 107 (2), 393.
71. Van Geest, G. J., Wolters, H., Roozen, F. C. J. M., Coops, H., Roijackers, R. M. M., Buijse, A. D. & Scheffer, M. 2005 Waterlevel fluctuations affect macrophyte richness in floodplain lakes. Hydrobiologica 539, 239-248.
72. Van Looy, K. & Meire, P. 2009 A conservation paradox for riparian habitats and river corridor species. J. Nat. Conserv. 17, 33-46.
73. Verzano, K. & Menzel, L. 2009 Snow conditions in mountains and climate change - a global view. In: Hydrology in Mountain Regions: Observations, Processes and Dynamics (Proceedings of Symposium HS1003 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007), pp. 147-154.
74. Verzano, K., Hunger, M. & Döll, P. 2005 Simulating river flow velocity on global scale. Adv. Geosci. 5, 133-136.
75. Wang, Q. J. 1991 The POT model described by the generalized Pareto distribution with Poisson arrival rate. J. Hydrol. 129, 263-280.
76. Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O. & Best, M. 2010 The WATCH Forcing Data 1958-2001: A meteorological forcing dataset for land surface- and hydrological-models. WATCH Technical Report 22. Available from: http://www.eu-watch.org
77. Williams, G. P. 1978 Bankfull discharge of rivers. Water Resour. Res. 14, 1141-1153.
78. Woodyer, K. D. 1968 Bankfull frequency in Rivers. J. Hydrol. 6, 114-142.