Latitudinal gradients in butterfly population variability are influenced by landscape heterogeneity

Ecography

Volumn 37, Issue 9, 2014, Pages 863-871

  Oliver, Tom H ^a   Stefanescu, Constanti ^b,c   Páramo, Ferran ^b   Brereton, Tom ^d   Roy, David B ^a  

^a CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^b Butterfl y Monitoring Scheme Museu Granollers Ciències Naturals   (Spain)

^c CREAF   (Spain)

^d BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84906795032     PISSN: 09067590     EISSN: 16000587     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.00608     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Ashton S. et al. 2009. Effects of temperature and elevation on habitat use by a rare mountain butterfly: implications for species' responses to climate change. - Ecol. Entomol. 34: 437-446.
2. Bates D. et al. 2008. lme4: linear mixed-effects models using S4 classes. - R package ver. 0.999375-20, < http://lme4.r-forge.r-project.org/ >.
3. Bjørnstad O. N. 2009. ncf: spatial nonparametric covariance functions. - R package ver. 1.1-3, < http://CRAN.R-project.org/package = ncf >.
4. Bjørnstad O. N. and Grenfell B. T. 2001. Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. - Science 293: 638-643.
5. Chapman J. W. et al. 2012. Seasonal migration to high latitudes results in major reproductive benefits in an insect. - Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109: 14924-14929.
6. Curnutt S. et al. 1996. Population variability of sparrows in space and time. - Oikos 76: 131-144.
7. Davies Z. G. et al. 2006. Changing habitat associations of a thermally constrained species, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly, in response to climate warming. - J. Anim. Ecol. 75: 247-256.
8. Della-Marta P. et al. 2007. Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. - J. Geophys. Res. 112: D15103.
9. Ehrlich P. R. et al. 1980. Extinction, reduction, stability and increase: the responses of checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas) populations to the California drought. - Oecologia 46: 101-105.
10. Fernàndez-Chacón A. et al. 2013. Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features. - J. Anim. Ecol. 83: 276-285.
11. Fuller R. M. et al. 2002. The UK Land Cover Map 2000: construction of a parcel-based vector map from satellite images. - Cartogr. J. 39: 15-25.
12. Gaston K. J. 2003. Range edges. - In: Harvey P. and May R. (eds), The structure and dynamics of geographic ranges. Oxford Univ. Press, pp. 20-65.
13. Giorgi F. and Lionello P. 2008. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. - Global Planet Change 63: 90-104.
14. Hadfield J. D. 2010. MCMC methods for multi-response generalised linear mixed models: the MCMCglmm R package. - J. Stat. Softw. 33: 1-22.
15. Hampe A. and Petit R. J. 2005. Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. - Ecol. Lett. 8: 461-467.
16. Hanski I. and Tiainen J. 1989. Bird ecology and Taylor's variance-mean regression. - Ann. Zool. Fenn. 26: 213-217.
17. Hansson L. and Hentonnen H. 1985. Gradients in density variations of small rodents: the importance of latitude and snow cover. - Oecologia 67: 394: 402.
18. Hawkins B. A. and Porter E. E. 2003. Water-energy balance and the geographic pattern of species richness of western Palearctic butterflies. - Ecol. Entomol. 28: 678-686.
19. Heller N. E. and Zavaleta E. S. 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. - Biol. Conserv. 142: 14-32.
20. Hopkins J. J. et al. 2007. Conserving biodiversity in a changing climate: guidance on building capacity to adapt. - Defra.
21. Hutchinson G. E. 1957. Concluding remarks. - Cold Spring Harbour Symp. Quant. Biol. 22: 415-427.
22. Inchausti P. and Halley J. 2003. On the relation between temporal variability and persistence time in animal populations. - J. Anim. Ecol. 72: 899-908.
23. IUCN 2011. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2011.1. - < www.iucnredlist.org >.
24. Kindvall O. 1995. The impact of extreme weather on habitat preference and survival in a metapopulation of the bush cricket Metrioptera bicolor in Sweden. - Biol. Conserv. 73: 51-58.
25. Kindvall O. 1996. Habitat heterogeneity and survival in a bush cricket metapopulation. - Ecology 77: 207-214.
26. Krebs J. R. 1999. Species diversity measures. - In: Krebs J. R. (ed.), Ecological methodology. Addison Wesley Longman, pp. 410-455.
27. Kudrna O. et al. 2011. Distribution atlas of butterflies in Europe. - GfS.
28. Lande R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. - Am. Nat. 142: 911-927.
29. Lennon J. J. et al. 2002. Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas? - Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 11: 103-114.
30. Lepš J. 1993. Taylor's power law and the measurement of variation in the size of populations in space and time. - Oikos 68: 349-356.
31. McArdle B. H. et al. 1990. Variation in the size of animal populations. - J. Anim. Ecol. 59: 439-454.
32. McLaughlin J. F. et al. 2002. The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly. - Oecologia 132: 538-548.
33. Morris D. G. and Flavin R. W. 1990. A digital terrain model for hydrology. - Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling Vol. 1, pp. 250-262.
34. Nicholson A. J. 1933. The balance of animal populations. - J. Anim. Ecol. 2: 131-178.
35. Oliver T. H. et al. 2009. Changes in habitat specificity of species at their climatic range boundaries. - Ecol. Lett. 12: 1091-1102.
36. Oliver T. H. et al. 2010. Heterogeneous landscapes promote population stability. - Ecol. Lett. 13: 473-484.
37. Oliver T. H. et al. 2012a. Population density but not stability can be predicted from species distribution models. - J. Appl. Ecol. 49: 581-590.
38. Oliver T. H. et al. 2012b. Reduced variability in range-edge butterfly populations over three decades of climate warming. - Global Change Biol. 18: 1531-1539.
39. Pimm S. and Redfearn A. 1988. The variability of population densities. - Nature 334: 613-614.
40. Pimm S. L. et al. 1988. On the risk of extinction. - Am. Nat. 132: 757-785.
41. Pollard E. and Yates T. J. 1993. Monitoring butterflies for ecology and conservation. - Chapman and Hall.
42. Pollard E. and Rothery P. 1994. A simple stochastic model of resource-limited populations. - Oikos 69: 287-294.
43. Powney G. D. et al. 2010. Synchrony of butterfly populations across species' geographic ranges. - Oikos 119: 1690-1696.
44. Rosenberg N. J. 1974. Microclimate: the biological environment. - Wiley Interscience.
45. Roslin T. et al. 2009. Some like it hot: microclimatic variation affects the abundance of a critically endangered dung beetle. - Insect Conserv. Divers. 2: 232-241.
46. Rothery P. and Roy D. B. 2001. Application of generalized additive models to butterfly transect count data. - J. Appl. Stat. 28: 897-909.
47. Roy D. B. et al. 2001. Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change. - J. Anim. Ecol. 70: 201-217.
48. Settele J. and Kühn E. 2009. Insect conservation. - Science 325: 41-42.
49. Settele J. et al. 2008. Climatic risk atlas of European butterflies. - Pensoft Publishers.
50. Stefanescu C. et al. 2011. Determinants of species richness in generalist and specialist Mediterranean butterflies: the negative synergistic forces of climate and habitat change. - Ecography 33: 1-11.
51. Stefanescu C. et al. 2013. Multi-generational long-distance migration of insects: studying the painted lady butterfly in the Western Palaearctic. - Ecography 36: 474-486.
52. Suggitt A. J. et al. 2011. Habitat microclimates drive fine- scale variation in extreme temperatures. - Oikos 120: 1-8.
53. Suggitt A. J. et al. 2012. Habitat associations of species show consistent but weak responses to climate. - Biol. Lett. 8: 590-593.
54. Sutcliffe O. et al. 1997. Correlated extinctions, colonisations and population fluctuations in a highly connected ringlet butterfly metapopulation. - Oecologia 109: 235-241.
55. Taylor L. R. 1961. Aggregation, variance and the mean. - Nature 189: 732-735.
56. Thomas J. A. et al. 1994. Increased fluctuations of butterfly populations towards the northern edges of species' ranges. - Ecography 17: 215-220.
57. Weiss S. B et al. 1988. Sun, slope, and butterflies: topographic determinants of habitat quality for Euphydyras editha. - Ecology 69: 1486-1496.