Fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies in a time of climate change

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volumn 1322, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 92-109

  Tingley, Morgan W ^a   Darling, Emily S ^b   Wilcove, David S ^a,c  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^c PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Conservation; Multiple stressors; Prioritization; Vulnerability

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; COARSE FILTER; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FILTER; FINE FILTER; LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY; SPECIES CONSERVATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION; MULTIPLE STRESSORS; PRIORITIZATION; VULNERABILITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ENVIRONMENT;

EID: 84906089032     PISSN: 00778923     EISSN: 17496632     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12484     Document Type: Article

References (125)

1. Bottrill, M.C. et al. 2008. Is conservation triage just smart decision making? Trends Ecol. Evol. 23: 649-654.
2. Barnosky, A.D. et al. 2012. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature 486: 52-58.
3. Heller, N.E. & E.S. Zavaleta 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol. Conserv. 142: 14-32.
4. Noss, R.F. 1987. From plant communities to landscapes in conservation inventories: a look at the nature conservancy (USA). Biol. Conserv. 41: 11-37.
5. Margules, C.R. & R.L. Pressey 2000. Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405: 243-253.
6. Myers, N., R.A. Mittermeier, C.G. Mittermeier, et al. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403: 853-858.
7. Olson, D.M. & E. Dinerstein 1998. The Global 200: a representation approach to conserving the Earth's most biologically valuable ecoregions. Conserv. Biol. 12: 502-515.
8. Mittermeier, R.A., N. Myers, J.B. Thomsen, et al. 1998. Biodiversity hotspots and major tropical wilderness areas: approaches to setting conservation priorities. Conserv. Biol. 12: 516-520.
9. Hunter, M.L., Jr, G.L. Jacobson & T. Webb 1988. Paleoecology and the coarse-filter approach to maintaining biological diversity. Conserv. Biol. 2: 375-385.
10. Metrick, A. & M.L. Weitzman 1996. Patterns of behavior in endangered species preservation. Land Econ. 72: 1-16.
11. Parmesan, C. & G. Yohe 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
12. Chen, I.-C., J.K. Hill, R. Ohlemüller, et al. 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333: 1024-1026.
13. Pinsky, M.L., B. Worm, M.J. Fogarty, et al. 2013. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341: 1239-1242.
14. Bonebrake, T.C. & M.D. Mastrandrea 2010. Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107: 12581-12586.
15. Tingley, M.W., M.S. Koo, C. Moritz, et al. 2012. The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Glob. Change Biol. 18: 3279-3290.
16. Kullman, L. 2002. Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shrub species in the Swedish Scandes. J. Ecol. 90: 68-77.
17. Smale, D.A. & T. Wernberg 2013. Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sci. 280: 20122829.
18. Reside, A.E., J.J. VanDerWal, A.S. Kutt & G.C. Perkins 2010. Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species. PLoS ONE 5: e13569.
19. Roland, J. & S.F. Matter 2013. Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly. Ecology 94: 190-199.
20. Burrows, M.T. et al. 2014. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507: 492-495.
21. Schloss, C.A., T.A. Nunez & J.J. Lawler 2012. Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109: 8606-8611.
22. Hannah, L. et al. 2007. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5: 131-138.
23. Beale, C.M., N.E. Baker, M.J. Brewer & J.J. Lennon 2013. Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation. Ecol. Lett. 16: 1061-1068.
24. Mascia, M.B. & S. Pailler 2010. Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) and its conservation implications. Conserv. Lett. 4: 9-20.
25. Johnston, A. et al. 2013. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nat. Climate Change 3: 1055-1061.
26. Araujo, M.B., D. Alagador, M. Cabeza, et al. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol. Lett. 14: 484-492.
27. Wiens, J.A., N.E. Seavy & D. Jongsomjit 2011. Protected areas in climate space: what will the future bring? Biol. Conserv. 144: 2119-2125.
28. Forrest, J.L. et al. 2012. Conservation and climate change: assessing the vulnerability of snow leopard habitat to treeline shift in the Himalaya. Biol. Conserv. 150: 129-135.
29. Harris, J.B.C. et al. 2012. Managing the long-term persistence of a rare cockatoo under climate change. J. Appl. Ecol. 49: 785-794.
30. Rubidge, E.M. et al. 2012. Climate-induced range contraction drives genetic erosion in an alpine mammal. Nat. Climate Change 2: 285-288.
31. Tingley, M.W. & S.R. Beissinger 2013. Cryptic loss of montane avian richness and high community turnover over 100 years. Ecology 94: 598-609.
32. Staudinger, M.D. et al. 2013. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US. Front. Ecol. Environ. 11: 465-473.
33. Darling, E.S., T.R. McClanahan & I.M. Côté 2013. Life histories predict coral community disassembly under multiple stressors. Glob. Change Biol. 19: 1930-1940.
34. Stralberg, D. et al. 2009. Re-shuffling of species with climate disruption: a no-analog future for California birds? PLoS ONE 4: e6825.
35. Alvarez-Filip, L., J.P. Carricart-Ganivet, G. Horta-Puga & R. Iglesias-Prieto 2013. Shifts in coral-assemblage composition do not ensure persistence of reef functionality. Sci. Rep. 3: 3486.
36. Thuiller, W. et al. 2014. The European functional tree of bird life in the face of global change. Nat. Commun. 5: 1-10.
37. Williams, J.W., S.T. Jackson & J.E. Kutzbach 2007. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104: 5738-5742.
38. Graham, N.A., J.E. Cinner, A.V. Norström & M. Nyström 2014. Coral reefs as novel ecosystems: embracing new futures. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 7: 9-14.
39. Rau, G.H., E.L. McLeod & O. Hoegh-Guldberg 2012. The need for new ocean conservation strategies in a high-carbon dioxide world. Nat. Climate Change 2: 720-724.
40. Shaw, M.R., K. Klausmeyer, D.R. Cameron, et al. 2012. Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes. Conserv. Biol. 26: 385-396.
41. Stein, B.A. et al. 2013. Preparing for and managing change: climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems. Front. Ecol. Environ. 11: 502-510.
42. Anderson, R.P. 2013. A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1297: 8-28.
43. Smith, A.B. et al. 2013. Evaluation of species distribution models by resampling of sites surveyed a century ago by Joseph Grinnell. Ecography 36: 1017-1031.
44. Blois, J.L., J.W. Williams, M.C. Fitzpatrick, et al. 2013. Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110: 9374-9379.
45. Dobrowski, S.Z. et al. 2011. Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits. Ecol. Monogr. 81: 241-257.
46. Williams, J.W. et al. 2013. The ice age ecologist: testing methods for reserve prioritization during the last global warming. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22: 289-301.
47. Eskildsen, A. et al. 2013. Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22: 1293-1303.
48. Urban, M.C., P.L. Zarnetske & D.K. Skelly 2013. Moving forward: dispersal and species interactions determine biotic responses to climate change. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1297: 44-60.
49. Bateman, B.L., H.T. Murphy, A.E. Reside, et al. 2013. Appropriateness of full-, partial- and no-dispersal scenarios in climate change impact modelling. Divers. Distrib. 19: 1224-1234.
50. Boulangeat, I., D. Gravel & W. Thuiller 2012. Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances. Ecol. Lett. 15: 584-593.
51. Foden, W.B. et al. 2013. Identifying the World's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals. PLoS ONE 8: e65427.
52. Moritz, C. & R. Agudo 2013. The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline? Science 341: 504-508.
53. Small-Lorenz, S.L., L.A. Culp, T.B. Ryder, et al. 2013. A blind spot in climate change vulnerability assessments. Nat. Climate Change 3: 91-93.
54. Franklin, J. 2013. Species distribution models in conservation biogeography: developments and challenges. Divers. Distrib. 19: 1217-1223.
55. Guisan, A. et al. 2013. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol. Lett. 16: 1424-1435.
56. Pearson, R.G. et al. 2014. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change. Nat. Climate Change 4: 217-221.
57. Coetzee, B.W.T., M.P. Robertson, B.F.N. Erasmus, et al. 2009. Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 18: 701-710.
58. Thomas, C.D. et al. 2012. Protected areas facilitate species' range expansions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109: 14063-14068.
59. Hiley, J.R., R.B. Bradbury, M. Holling & C.D. Thomas 2013. Protected areas act as establishment centres for species colonizing the UK. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sci. 280: 20122310.
60. Dunlop, M. 2013. Biodiversity: Strategy conservation. Nat. Climate Change 3: 1019-1020.
61. Bagchi, R. et al. 2013. Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty. Glob. Change Biol. 19: 1236-1248.
62. Côté, I.M. & E.S. Darling 2010. Rethinking ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. PLoS Biol. 8: e1000438.
63. Keppel, G. & G.W. Wardell-Johnson 2012. Refugia: keys to climate change management. Glob. Change Biol. 18: 2389-2391.
64. Sunday, J.M., R.N. Crim, C.D.G. Harley & M.W. Hart 2011. Quantifying rates of evolutionary adaptation in response to ocean acidification. PLoS ONE 6: e22881.
65. Dickson, B.G., G.W. Roemer, B.H. McRae & J.M. Rundall 2013. Models of regional habitat quality and connectivity for Pumas (Puma concolor) in the Southwestern United States. PLoS ONE 8: e81898.
66. Atkinson, C.T. et al. 2014. Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands - an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i. Glob. Change Biol. doi:10.1111/gcb.12535.
67. Lawler, J.J., A.S. Ruesch, J.D. Olden & B.H. McRae 2013. Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes. Ecol. Lett. 16: 1014-1022.
68. Thomas, C.D. 2011. Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities. Trends Ecol. Evolution 26: 216-221.
69. Loss, S.R., L.A. Terwilliger & A.C. Peterson 2011. Assisted colonization: integrating conservation strategies in the face of climate change. Biol. Conserv. 144: 92-100.
70. Maschinski, J. et al. 2011. Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise. Climatic Change 107: 147-167.
71. Schwartz, M.W. & T.G. Martin 2013. Translocation of imperiled species under changing climates. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1286: 15-28.
72. Aitken, S.N. & M.C. Whitlock 2013. Assisted gene flow to facilitate local adaptation to climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 44: 367-388.
73. Kujala, H., A. Moilanen, M.B. Araujo & M. Cabeza 2013. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections. PLoS ONE 8: e53315.
74. Carvalho, S.B., J.C. Brito, E.G. Crespo, et al. 2011. Conservation planning under climate change: Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time. Biol. Conserv. 144: 2020-2030.
75. Forester, B.R., E.G. DeChaine & A.G. Bunn 2013. Integrating ensemble species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography to inform projections of climate change impacts on species distributions. Divers. Distrib. 19: 1480-1495.
76. Zurell D., V. Rossmanith, E. Rossmanith, et al. 2012. Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics: black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps. Ecography 35: 590-603.
77. Iwamura, T., A. Guisan, K.A. Wilson & H.P. Possingham 2013. How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change? Glob. Environ. Change 23: 1277-1284.
78. Smith, D.R. et al. 2013. Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: must uncertainty impede effective decision-making? J. Appl. Ecol. 50: 1431-1440.
79. Hagerman, S., H. Dowlatabadi, T. Satterfield & T. McDaniels 2010. Expert views on biodiversity conservation in an era of climate change. Glob. Environ. Change 20: 192-207.
80. Game, E.T., G. Lipsett-Moore, E. Saxon, et al. 2011. Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments. Glob. Change Biol. 17: 3150-3160.
81. Beier, P. & B. Brost 2010. Use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors. Conserv. Biol. 24: 701-710.
82. Anderson, M.G. & C.E. Ferree 2010. Conserving the stage: climate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity. PLoS ONE 5: e11554.
83. Soberón, J.M. 2007. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecol. Lett. 10: 1115-1123.
84. Hutchinson, G.E. 1978. An Introduction to Population Ecology. New Haven: Yale University Press.
85. Wessels, K.J., S. Freitag & A.S. van Jaarsveld 1999. The use of land facets as biodiversity surrogates during reserve selection at a local scale. Biol. Conserv. 89: 21-38.
86. Harrison, S.H. & B. Inouye 2002. High β diversity in the flora of Californian serpentine 'islands'. Biodivers. Conserv. 11, 1869-1876.
87. Struebig, M.J. et al. 2009. Conservation importance of limestone karst outcrops for Palaeotropical bats in a fragmented landscape. Biol. Conserv. 142: 2089-2096.
88. Ruddock, K. et al. 2013. Conservation in the context of climate change: practical guidelines for land protection at local scales. PLoS ONE 8: e80874.
89. Higgins, J.V., M.T. Bryer, M.L. Khoury & T.W. Fitzhugh 2005. A freshwater classification approach for biodiversity conservation planning. Conserv. Biol. 19: 432-445.
90. Copeland, A. et al. 2011. Marine habitat mapping in support of Marine Protected Area management in a subarctic fjord: Gilbert Bay, Labrador, Canada. J. Coast Conserv. 17: 225-237.
91. Brost, B.M. & P. Beier 2012. Comparing linkage designs based on land facets to linkage designs based on focal species. PLoS ONE 7: e48965.
92. Hermoso, V., S.R. Januchowski-Hartley & R.L. Pressey 2013. When the suit does not fit biodiversity: loose surrogates compromise the achievement of conservation goals. Biol. Conserv. 159: 197-205.
93. Hunter, M.L., Jr. 1990. Coping with ignorance: the coarse-filter strategy for maintaining biodiversity. In Balancing on the Brink of Extinction. K. Kohm, Ed.: 266-281. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
94. Dobrowski, S.Z. et al. 2012. The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. Glob. Change Biol. 19: 241-251.
95. Loarie, S.R. et al. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462: 1052-1055.
96. Burrows, M.T. et al. 2011. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334: 652-655.
97. Tingley, M.W., W.B. Monahan, S.R. Beissinger & C. Moritz 2009. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106(Suppl 2): 19637-19643.
98. La Sorte, F.A. & W. Jetz 2012. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change. J. Anim. Ecol. 81: 914-925.
99. Forero-Medina, G., J. Terborgh, S.J. Socolar & S.L. Pimm 2011. Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures. PLoS ONE 6: e28535.
100. Bertrand, R. et al. 2011. Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature 479: 517-520.
101. Scherrer, D. & C. Körner 2010. Topographically controlled thermal-habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming. J. Biogeogr. 38: 406-416.
102. Ackerly, D.D. et al. 2010. The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Ecography 16: 476-487.
103. Petit, R.J., F.S. Hu & C.W. Dick 2008. Forests of the past: a window to future changes. Science 320: 1450-1452.
104. Tingley, M.W., L.D. Estes & D.S. Wilcove 2013. Ecosystems: climate change must not blow conservation off course. Nature 500: 271-272.
105. Joppa, L.N. & A. Pfaff 2009. High and far: biases in the location of protected areas. PLoS ONE 4: e8273.
106. Carroll, C., J.R. Dunk & A. Moilanen 2010. Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Glob. Change Biol. 16: 891-904.
107. Nunez, T.A. et al. 2013. Connectivity planning to address climate change. Conserv. Biol. 27: 407-416.
108. Le Saout, S. et al. 2013. Protected areas and effective biodiversity conservation. Science 342: 803-805.
109. McClanahan, T.R., N.A. Graham & E.S. Darling 2014. Coral reefs in a crystal ball: predicting the future from the vulnerability of corals and reef fishes to multiple stressors. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 7: 59-64.
110. Watson, J.E.M., T. Iwamura & N. Butt 2013. Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change. Nat. Climate Change 3: 989-994.
111. Sanderson, E.W. et al. 2002. The human footprint and the last of the wild. Bioscience 52: 891.
112. Chapin, F.S. et al. 2000. Consequences of changing biodiversity. Nature 405: 234-242.
113. Lindenmayer, D. & M.L. Hunter, Jr. 2010. Some guiding concepts for conservation biology. Conserv. Biol. 24: 1459-1468.
114. Jetz, W., D.S. Wilcove & A.P. Dobson 2007. Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol. 5: 1211-1219.
115. Lee, T.M. & W. Jetz 2008. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sci. 275: 1261-1270.
116. Reece, J.S., R.F. Noss, J. Oetting, et al. 2013. Vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change. PLoS ONE 8: e80658.
117. Maina, J. et al. 2013. Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs. Nat. Commun. 4: 1986.
118. Barbet-Massin, M. & F. Jiguet 2011. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican nuthatch. PLoS ONE 6: e18228.
119. Noss, R.F. et al. 2012. Bolder thinking for conservation. Conserv. Biol. 26: 1-4.
120. Mace, G.M. 2004. The role of taxonomy in species conservation. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B-Biol. Sci. 359: 711-719.
121. Summers, D.M., B.A. Bryan, N.D. Crossman & W.S. Meyer 2012. Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation. Glob. Change Biol. 18: 2335-2348.
122. Hunter, M.L., Jr., E. Dinerstein, J. Hoekstra & D. Lindenmayer 2010. A call to action for conserving biological diversity in the face of climate change. Conserv. Biol. 24: 1169-1171.
123. Ando, A.W. & M.L. Mallory 2012. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109: 6484-6489.
124. Wilcove, D.S. & J. Lee 2004. Using economic and regulatory incentives to restore endangered species: lessons learned from three new programs. Conserv. Biol. 18: 639-645.
125. Ando, A.W. & L. Hannah 2011. Lessons from finance for new land-conservation strategies given climate-change uncertainty. Conserv. Biol. 25: 412-414.