Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change

Climatic Change

Volumn 125, Issue 3-4, 2014, Pages 399-412

  Hill, Ryan A ^a   Hawkins, Charles P ^a   Jin, Jiming ^a  

^a UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION TREES; FORECASTING; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; WATERSHEDS;

AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES; ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCES; APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS; LONG-WAVE RADIATION; PREDICTIVE MODELING; STREAM TEMPERATURE CHANGES; STREAM TEMPERATURES; US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84905396601     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1174-4     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Bogan T, Mohseni O, Stefan HG (2003) Stream temperature-equilibrium temperature relationship. Water Resour Res 39: 1245.
2. Breiman L (2001) Random forests. Mach Learn 45: 5-32.
3. Brown GW, Krygier JT (1970) Effects of clear-cutting on stream temperature. Water Resour Res 6: 1133-1139.
4. Caissie D, El-Jabi N, Satish M (2001) Modeling of maximum daily water temperatures in a small stream using air temperatures. J Hydrol 251: 14-28.
5. Caldwell P, Chin H-NS, Bader DC, Bala G (2009) Evaluation of a WRF dynamical downscaling simulation over California. Clim Chang 95: 499-521.
6. Carlisle DM, Falcone J, Wolock D, Meador M, Norris R (2010) Predicting the natural flow regime: models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams. River Res Appl 26: 118-136.
7. Chang H, Psaris M (2013) Local landscape predictors of maximum stream temperature and thermal sensitivity n the Columbia River Basin, USA. Sci Total Environ 461-462: 587-600.
8. Chapra SC (1997) Surface water-quality modeling. Waveland Press, Long Grove.
9. Chessman BC (2009) Climatic changes and 13-year trends in stream macroinvertebrate assemblages in New South Wales, Australia. Glob Chang Biol 15: 2791-2802.
10. Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML, Bonan GB, Bretherton CS, Carton JA, Chang P, Doney SC, Hack JJ, Henderson TB (2006) The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19: 2122-2143.
11. Cutler DR, Edwards TC, Beard KH, Cutler A, Hess KT (2007) Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology 88: 2783-2792.
12. Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, Curtis J, Pasteris PP (2008) Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol 28: 2031-2064.
13. Flint L, Flint A (2012) Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis. Ecol Process 1: 1-15.
14. Hari RE, Livingstone DM, Siber R, Burkhardt-Holm P, Guttinger H (2006) Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout populations in Alpine rivers and streams. Glob Chang Biol 12: 10-26.
15. Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ, Friedman JH (2001) The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction. Springer, New York.
16. Hawkins CP, Hogue JN, Decker LM, Feminella JW (1997) Channel morphology, water temperature, and assemblage structure of stream insects. J N Am Benthol Soc 16: 728-749.
17. Hawkins CP, Olson JR, Hill RA (2010) The reference condition: predicting benchmarks for ecological and water-quality assessments. J N Am Benthol Soc 29: 312-358.
18. Hill RA, Hawkins CP, Carlisle DM (2013) Predicting thermal reference conditions for USA streams. Freshwat Sci 32: 39-55.
19. Isaak DJ, Luce CH, Rieman BE, Nagel DE, Peterson EE, Horan DL, Parkes S, Chandler GL (2010) Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. Ecol Appl 20: 1350-1371.
20. Jin J, Wang SY, Gillies RR (2011) Improved dynamical downscaling of climate projections for the western United States. In: Climate Change / Book 2, Kheradmand H (ed). InTech Open Access Publisher (Available from: http://www. intechopen. com/books/climate-change-research-and-technology-for-adaptation-and-mitigation/an-improved-dynamical-downscaling-for-the-western-united-states).
21. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471.
22. Kaushal SS, Likens GE, Jaworski NA, Pace ML, Sides AM, Seekell D, Belt KT, Secor DH, Wingate RL (2010) Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States. Front Ecol Environ 8: 461-466.
23. Kelleher C, Wagener T, Gooseff M, McGlynn B, McGuire K, Marshall L (2012) Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania streams. Hydrol Process 26: 771-785.
24. Kundzewicz ZW, Stakhiv EZ (2010) Are climate models "ready for prime time" in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Hydrol Sci J 55: 1085-1089.
25. Kurylyk BL, Bourque CP-A, MacQuarrie KTB (2013) Potential surface temperature and shallow groundwater response to climate change: an example from a small forested catchment in east-central New Brunswick (Canada). Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 10: 3283-3326.
26. Leopold LB, Wolman MG, Miller JP (1964) Fluvial processes in geomorphology. Dover Publications, New York.
27. Mearns LO, Sain S, Leung LR, Bukovsky MS, McGinnis S, Biner S, Caya D, Arritt RW, Gutowski W, Takle E, Snyder M, Jones RG, Nunes AMB, Tucker S, Herzmann D, McDaniel L, Sloan L (2013) Climate change projections of the north american regional climate change assessment program. Clim Chang. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-013-0831-3.
28. Mohseni O, Stefan HG (1999) Stream temperature air temperature relationship: a physical interpretation. J Hydrol 218: 128-141.
29. Mohseni O, Erickson TR, Stefan HG (2002) Upper bounds for stream temperatures in the contiguous United States. J Environ Eng-ASCE 128: 4-11.
30. Mohseni O, Stefan HG, Eaton JG (2003) Global warming and potential changes in fish habitat in US streams. Clim Chang 59: 389-409.
31. O'Driscoll M, DeWalle DR (2006) Stream-air temperature relations to classify stream-ground water interactions in a karst setting, central Pennsylvania, USA. J Hydrol 329: 140-153.
32. Ordoyne C, Friedl MA (2008) Using MODIS data to characterize seasonal inundation patterns in the Florida Everglades. Remote Sens Environ 112: 4107-4119.
33. Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 10288-10293.
34. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (2007) Contributions of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Chapter 10. 5. 4 - the multi-model ensemble approach. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
35. Stefan HG, Sinokrot BA (1993) Projected global climate-change impact on water temperatures in 5 north central United-States streams. Clim Chang 24: 353-381.
36. Sweeney BW (1993) Effects of streamside vegetation on macroinvertebrate communities of white clay creek in eastern North America. Proc Acad Natl Sci Phila 144: 291-340.
37. van Vliet MTH, Franssen WHP, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Haddeland I, Lettenmaier DP, Kabat P (2013) Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change. Glob Environ Chang 23: 450-464.
38. Vannote RL, Sweeney BW (1980) Geographic analysis of thermal equilibria: a conceptual model for evaluating the effects of natural and modified thermal regimes on aquatic insect communities. Am Nat 115: 667-695.
39. Webb BW (1996) Trends in stream and river temperature. Hydrol Process 10: 205-226.
40. Wilby RL (2010) Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications. Hydrol Sci J 55: 1090-1093.
41. Wilby RL, Gutowski W, Arritt R, Takle E, Pan Z, Leavesley G, Clark M (2000) Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output. Geophys Res Lett 27: 1199-1202.
42. Wolock DM (1997) STATSGO soil characteristics for the conterminous United States. U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 97-656. US Geological Survey, Lawrence.
43. Wolock DM (2003) Base-flow index grid for the conterminous United States. U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 03-263. US Geological Survey, Reston.
44. Woodward G, Perkins DM, Brown LE (2010) Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization. Philos Trans Roy Soc B-Biol Sci 365: 2093-2106.