Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: A review

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 18, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2789-2801

  Roudier, P ^a   Ducharne, A ^b   Feyen, L ^a  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

RAIN; RUNOFF; STREAM FLOW; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CORRELATION ANALYSIS; INFORMATION CONCERNING; INTERANNUAL FLUCTUATIONS; LAND USE DYNAMICS; POTENTIAL EFFECTS; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; WATER WITHDRAWAL;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84905275603     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014     Document Type: Review

References (70)

1. Aerts, J. C. J. H., Renssen, H., Ward, P. J., De Moel, H., Odada, E., Bouwer, L. M., and Goosse, H.: Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19401, doi:10.1029/2006GL027493, 2006.
2. Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Huang, S., Tecklenburg, J., Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Krysanova, V., Müller, E. N., and Hattermann, F. F.: Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1305-1321, doi:10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014, 2014.
3. Alkama, R., Kageyama, M., and Ramstein, G.: Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model, J. Geophys. Res.- Atmos., 115, D17112, doi:10.1029/2009jd013408, 2010.
4. Ardoin-Bardin, S., Dezetter, A., Servat, E., Paturel, J. E., Mahé, G., Niel, H., and Dieulin, C.: Using general circulation model outputs to assess impacts of climate change on runoff for large hydrological catchments in West Africa, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 77-89, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.1.77, 2009.
5. Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14, 31-52, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006, 2004.
6. Bélières, J.-F., Hilhorst, T., Kébé, D., Keïta, M. S., Keïta, S., and Sanogo, O.: Irrigation et pauvreté: le cas de l'Office du Niger au Mali, Cahiers Agricultures, 20, 144-149, 2011.
7. Berg, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Sultan, B., Lengaigne, M., and Guimberteau, M.: Projections of climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity over tropical regions, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 170, 89-102, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003, 2013.
8. Biasutti, M. and Sobel, A. H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23707, doi:10.1029/2009gl041303, 2009.
9. Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P.: Regional Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
10. Collomb, P.: Une voie étroite pour la sécurité alimentaire d'ici à 2050, edited by: Economica-FAO, Economica-FAO, Rome, Paris, 1999.
11. Cornelissen, T., Diekkrüger, B., and Giertz, S.: A comparison of hydrological models for assessing the impact of land use and climate change on discharge in a tropical catchment, J. Hydrol., 498, 221-236, 2013.
12. Descroix, L., Genthon, P., Amogu, O., Rajot, J.-L., Sighomnou, D., and Vauclin, M.: Change in Sahelian Rivers hydrograph: The case of recent red floods of the Niger River in the Niamey region, Global Planet. Change, 98-99, 18-30, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.07.009, 2012.
13. Descroix, L., Moussa, I. B., Genthon, P., Sighomnou, D., Mahé, G., Mamadou, I., Vandervaere, J.-P., Gautier, E., Maiga, O. F., Rajot, J.-L., Abdou, M. M., Dessay, N., Ingatan, A., Noma, I., Yéro, K. S., Karambiri, H., Fensholt, R., Albergel, J., and Olivry, J.-C.: Impact of Drought and Land - Use Changes on Surface - Water Quality and Quantity: The Sahelian Paradox, Curr. Perspect. Contam. Hydrol. Water Res. Sustain., in: Current Perspectives in Contaminant Hydrology and Water Resources Sustainability, chap. 10, edited by: Bradley, P. M., 243-271, doi:10.5772/54536, 2013.
14. ENDA-TM: Climate change adaptation and water resources management in west Africa, Synthesis report, WRITESHOP, Dakar, Senegal, 95 pp., 2007.
15. Falloon, P. D. and Betts, R. A.: The impact of climate change on global river flow in HadGEM1 simulations, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 7, 62-68, 2006.
16. FAO: Sahel: situation meteorologique et etat des cultures, Rapport du 11 juin 2004, http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/j2517f/j2517f00.HTM (last access: July 2014), 2004.
17. Faramarzi, M., Abbaspour, K. C., Ashraf Vaghefi, S., Farzaneh, M. R., Zehnder, A. J. B., Srinivasan, R., and Yang, H.: Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa, J. Hydrol., 480, 85-101, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.016, 2013.
18. Gerbaux, M., Hall, N., Dessay, N., and Zin, I.: The sensitivity of Sahelian runoff to climate change, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 5-16, 2009.
19. Gerten, D.: A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3841-3852, doi:10.5194/hess-17-3841-2013, 2013.
20. Gerten, D., Rost, S., von Bloh, W., and Lucht, W.: Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20405, doi:10.1029/2008GL035258, 2008.
21. Global Runoff Data Centre: Long-Term Mean Monthly Discharges and Annual Characteristics of GRDC Station/Global Runoff Data Centre, Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), Koblenz, Germany, 2011.
22. Guimberteau, M., Ronchail, J., Espinoza, J., Lengaigne, M., Sultan, B., Polcher, J., Drapeau, G., Guyot, J., Ducharne, A., and Ciais, P.: Future changes in precipitation and impacts on seasonal extreme streamflows over Amazonian sub-basins, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 14-35, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035, 2013.
23. Guimberteau, M., Ducharne, A., Ciais, P., Boisier, J. P., Peng, S., De Weirdt, M., and Verbeeck, H.: Testing conceptual and physically based soil hydrology schemes against observations for the Amazon Basin, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1115-1136, doi:10.5194/gmd- 7-1115-2014, 2014.
24. Jung, G., Wagner, S., and Kunstmann, H.: Joint climate-hydrology modeling: An impact study for the data-sparse environment of the Volta Basin in West Africa, Hydrol. Res., 43, 231-248, 2012.
25. Kamga, F.: Impact of greenhouse gas induced climate change on the runoff of the Upper Benue River (Cameroon), J. Hydrol., 252, 145-156, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00445-0, 2001.
26. Kankam-Yeboah, K., Obuobie, E., Amisigo, B., and Opoku-Ankomah, B.: Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 773-788, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.782101, 2013.
27. Karambiri, H., García Galiano, S. G., Giraldo, J. D., Yacouba, H., Ibrahim, B., Barbier, B., and Polcher, J.: Assessing the impact of climate variability and climate change on runoff in West Africa: the case of Senegal and Nakambe River basins, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 109-115, doi:10.1002/asl.317, 2011.
28. Kasei, R.: Modelling impacts of climate change on water resources in the Volta Basin, West Africa, PhD, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Bonn, Germany, 195 pp., 2009.
29. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: Freshwater resources and their management, in: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173-210, 2007.
30. Kunstmann, H. and Jung, G.: Impact of regional climate change on water availability in the Volta basin of West Africa, Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 2005
31. Leakey, A. D. B.: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C 4 crops for food and fuel, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 2333-2343, 2009.
32. Lebel, T. and Ali, A.: Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007), J. Hydrol., 375, 52-64, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030, 2009.
33. Leblanc, M. J., Favreau, G., Massuel, S., Tweed, S. O., Loireau, M., and Cappelaere, B.: Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger, Global Planet. Change, 61, 135-150, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.08.011, 2008.
34. Leggett, J., Pepper, W. J., Swart, R. J., Edmonds, J., Filho, L. G. M., Mintzer, I., Wang, M. X., and Watson, J.: Emissions Scenarios for the IPCC: an Update, in: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 68-95, 1992.
35. Mahe, G., Paturel, J.-E., Servat, E., Conway, D., and Dezetter, A.: The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso, J. Hydrol., 300, 33-43, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.04.028, 2005.
36. Mahe, G., Lienou, G., Descroix, L., Bamba, F., Paturel, J. E., Laraque, A., Meddi, M., Habaieb, H., Adeaga, O., Dieulin, C., Chahnez Kotti, F., and Khomsi, K.: The rivers of Africa: witness of climate change and human impact on the environment, Hydrol. Process., 27, 2105-2114, doi:10.1002/hyp.9813, 2013.
37. Manabe, S., Milly, P. C. D., and Wetherald, R.: Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming/Simulations à long terme de changements d'écoulement fluvial et d'humidité du sol causés par le réchauffement global, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49, 625-642, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.625.54429, 2004.
38. McCartney, M., Forkuor, G., Sood, A., Amisigo, B., Hattermann, F., and Muthuwatta, L.: The water resource implications of changing climate in the Volta River Basin, IWMI Research Report 146, International Water Colombo, Sri Lanka, doi:10.5337/2012.219, 2012.
39. Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.- C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA., 2007.
40. Meigh, J., Folwell, S., and Sullivan, C.: Linking water resources and global change in West Africa: Options for assessment, Seventh IAHS scientific assembly, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 297-306, 2005.
41. Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A., and Vecchia, A. V.: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438, 347-350, 2005.
42. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, 2005.
43. Mortimore, M., Ba, M., Mahamane, A., Rostom, R. S., Serra del Pozo, P., and Turner, B.: Changing systems and changing landscapes: Measuring and interpreting land use transformation in African drylands, Geografisk Tidsskrift, 105, 101-118, 2005.
44. Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747-756, 2010.
45. Murray, S. J., Foster, P. N., and Prentice, I. C.: Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 448-449, 14-29, 2012.
46. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R.: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, edited by: Nakicenovic, N. and Swar, R., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 612 pp., 2000.
47. Neiland, A. and Béné, C.: Review of River Fisheries Valuation in West and Central Africa, World Fish Center, Penang, Malaysia, 2008.
48. Obuobie, E. L. and Diekkrüger, B.: Using SWAT to Evaluate Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the White Volta River Basin, West Africa, Conference on International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development, Hohenheim, Germany, 2008.
49. Oguntunde, P. G. and Abiodun, B. J.: The impact of climate change on the Niger River Basin hydroclimatology, West Africa, Clim. Dynam., 40, 81-94, 2013.
50. Oguntunde, P. G., Abiodun, B. J., Lischeid, G., and Merz, C.: Modelling the impacts of reforestation on the projected hydroclimatology of Niger River Basin, West Africa, Ecohydrology, 7, 163-176, doi:10.1002/eco.1343, 2012.
51. Okpara, J. N. and Perumal, M.: Hydroinformatics in hydrology, hydrogeology and water resources, edited by: Cluckie, I. D., Chen, Y., Babovic, V., Konikow, L., Mynett, A., Demuth, S., and Savic, D. A., Proceedings of Symposium JS.4 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) held in Hyderabad, India, 6-12 September 2009, 58-71, 2009.
52. Patricola, C. and Cook, K.: Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models, Clim. Dynam., 35, 193-212, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0623-7, 2010.
53. Paturel, J. E., Ouedraogo, M., Servat, E., Mahe, G., Dezetter, A., and Boyer, J. F.: The concept of rainfall and streamflow normals in West and Central Africa in a context of climatic variability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 125-138, 2003.
54. Paturel, J. E., Barrau, C., Mahé, G., Dezetter, A., and Servat, E.: Modelling the impact of climatic variability on water resources in West and Central Africa from a non-calibrated hydrological model, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 38-48, doi:10.1623/hysj.52.1.38, 2007.
55. Roudier, P. and Mahé, G.: Calculation of design rainfall and runoff on the Bani basin (Mali): A study of the vulnerability of hydraulic structures and of the population since the drought, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 351-363, 2010.
56. Roudier, P., Sultan, B., Quirion, P., and Berg, A.: The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say?, Global Environ. Change, 21, 1073-1083, 2011.
57. Ruelland, D., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Collet, L., and Roucou, P.: Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change, J. Hydrol., 424-425, 207-216, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.002, 2012.
58. 2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08704, doi:10.1029/2011gl046773, 2011.
59. Skinner, J., Niasse, M., and Haas, L.: Partage des bénéfices issus des grands barrages en Afrique de l'Ouest, IIED, London, UK, 2009.
60. Sterling, S. M., Ducharne, A., and Polcher, J.: The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 385-390, 2013.
61. Strzepek, K. and McCluskey, A.: District level hydroclimatic time series and scenario analyses to assess the impacts of climate change on regional water resources and agriculture in Africa, CEEPA Discussion Paper 13, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa, 2006.
62. Sultan, B.: Etude de la mise en place de la mousson en Afrique de l'Ouest et de la variabilité intra-saisonnière de la convection, Applications à la sensibilité des rendements agricoles, PhD, University Paris VII - Denis Diderot, Paris, 283 pp., 2002.
63. Sultan, B., Roudier, P., Quirion, P., Alhassane, A., Muller, B., Dingkuhn, M., Ciais, P., Guimberteau, M., Traore, S., and Baron, C.: Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014040, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040, 2013.
64. 2 and world food supply. A comment on "Food for Thought ⋯" by Long et al., Science, 312, 1918-1921, 2006
65. Eur. J. Agron., 26, 215-223, 2007.
66. UNECA and ACPC: Climate Change and Water in Africa: Analysis of Knowledge Gaps and Needs, Working Paper 4, 2011.
67. van Vliet, M. T. H., Franssen, W. H. P., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Haddeland, I., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Kabat, P.: Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change, Global Environ. Change, 23, 450-464, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002, 2013.
68. Vigaud, N., Roucou, P., Fontaine, B., Sijikumar, S., and Tyteca, S.: WRF/ARPEGE-CLIMAT simulated climate trends over West Africa, Clim. Dynam., 36, 925-944, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0707-4, 2011.
69. Wittig, R., König, K., Schmidt, M., and Szarzynski, J.: A Study of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts in West Africa, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 14, 182-189, 2007.
70. Wuebbles, D. and Ciuro, D.: Radiatively Important Atmospheric Constituents, in: Engineering Response to Climate Change, 2nd Edn., CRC Press, Boca Raton, USA, 45-48, 2013.