Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Guimberteau, M ^a,b   Ronchail, J ^a,b,c   Espinoza, J C ^d,e   Lengaigne, M ^a,b   Sultan, B ^a,b,f   Polcher, J ^b,g,h   Drapeau, G ^a,b,c,i   Guyot, J L ^j   Ducharne, A ^h,k,l   Ciais, P ^h,m,n,o  

^a UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^b INSTITUT PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE   (France)

^c UNIVERSITÉ PARIS DESCARTES   (France)

^d INSTITUTO GEOFÍSICO DEL PERÚ   (Peru)

^e UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AGRARIA LA MOLINA   (Peru)

^f INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT   (France)

^g LABORATOIRE DE MÉTÉOROLOGIE DYNAMIQUE   (France)

^h CNRS   (France)

ⁱ PRODIG   (France)

^j CIRAD   (Brazil)

^k UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^l SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

^m LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

ⁿ DIF   (France)

^o LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

more..

Author keywords

Amazon; climate change; ORCHIDEE; precipitation; streamflow extreme

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ELASTICITY; LASERS; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); RIVERS; STREAM FLOW; WATER SUPPLY;

AMAZON; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; LAND SURFACE MODELS; MULTIMODEL APPROACH; ORCHIDEE; PRECIPITATION CHANGE; RUNOFF COEFFICIENTS;

RUNOFF;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; FUTURE PROSPECT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; STREAMFLOW; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

AMAZON BASIN; AMAZON RIVER;

EID: 84876180023     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Alves L and Marengo J 2010 Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America Theor. Appl. Climatol. 100 337-50
2. Arora V and Boer G 2001 Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins J. Geophys. Res. 106 3335-48
3. Azarderakhsh M, Rossow W, Papa F, Norouzi H and Khanbilvardi R 2011 Diagnosing water variations within the Amazon basin using satellite data J. Geophys. Res. 116 D24107
4. Bates B, Kundzewicz Z, Wu S and Palutikof J 2008 Climate Change and Water (Geneva: IPCC Secretariat)
5. Beighley R, Eggert K, Dunne T, He Y, Gummadi V and Verdin K 2009 Simulating hydrologic and hydraulic processes throughout the Amazon River Basin Hydrol. Process. 23 1221-35
6. Blöschl G and Montanari A 2010 Climate change impacts-throwing the dice? Hydrol. Process. 24 374-81
7. Boulanger J, Martinez F and Segura E 2006 Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 1: temperature mean state and seasonal cycle in South America Clim. Dyn. 27 233-59 (Pubitemid 43821714)
8. Boulanger J, Martinez F and Segura E 2007 Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America Clim. Dyn. 28 255-71 (Pubitemid 44896864)
9. Callede J, Cochonneau G, Ronchail J, Alves V, Guyot J, Guimaraes V and De Oliveira E 2010 Les apports en eau de l'Amazone a l'Ocean Atlantique Rev. Sci. Eau 23 247-73
10. Callede J, Guyot J, Ronchail J, L'Hote Y, Niel H and de Oliveira E 2004 Evolution du débit de l'Amazone à Obidos de 1903 à 1999 Hydrol. Sci. J. 49 85-98 (Pubitemid 38231727)
11. Callede J, Ronchail J, Guyot J and Oliveira E 2008 Déboisement amazonien: son influence sur le débit de l'Amazone à Óbidos (Brésil) Rev. Sci. Eau 21 59-72
12. Campoy A, Ducharne A, Cheruy F, Hourdin F, Polcher J and Dupont J 2013 Influence of soil bottom hydrological conditions on land surface fluxes and climate in a general circulation model J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. submitted
13. Chen J, Wilson C and Tapley B 2010 The 2009 exceptional Amazon flood and interannual terrestrial water storage change observed by GRACE Water Resources Res. 46 W12526
14. Chiew F 2006 Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia Hydrol. Sci. J. 51 613-25 (Pubitemid 44178041)
15. Cochonneau G et al 2006 The environmental observation and research project, ORE HYBAM, and the rivers of the Amazon basin Climate Variability and Change - Hydrological Impacts (IAHS Publication vol 308) (Wallingford: IAHS Press) pp 44-50 (Pubitemid 44925641)
16. Coe M, Costa M and Howard E 2007 Simulating the surface waters of the Amazon River basin: impacts of new river geomorphic and flow parameterizations Hydrol. Process. 22 2542-53
17. Cook B, Zeng N and Yoon J 2012 Will Amazonia dry out?: magnitude and causes of change from IPCC climate model projections Earth Interact. 16 1-27
18. Cox P, Harris P, Huntingford C, Betts R, Collins M, Jones C, Jupp T, Marengo J and Nobre C 2008 Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution Nature 453 212-5 (Pubitemid 351667985)
19. Decharme B, Douville H, Prigent C, Papa F and Aires F 2008 A new river flooding scheme for global climate applications: off-line evaluation over South America J. Geophys. Res. 113 D11110
20. De Rosnay P, Polcher J, Bruen M and Laval K 2002 Impact of a physically based soil water flow and soil-plant interaction representation for modeling large-scale land surface processes J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 107 4118
21. D'Orgeval T 2006 Impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l'eau en Afrique de l'Ouest: modélisation et incertitudes PhD Thesis Universite Paris VI
22. D'Orgeval T, Polcher J and de Rosnay P 2008 Sensitivity of the West African hydrological cycle in ORCHIDEE to infiltration processes Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 12 1387-401
23. Drapeau G, Mering C, Ronchail J and Filizola N 2011 Variabilité hydrologique et vulnérabilité des populations du Lago Janauaca (Amazonas, Brésil) Confins. Revue franco-brésilienne de géographie/Revista franco-brasilera de geografia 11 doi:10.4000/confins. 6904
24. Ducoudré N, Laval K and Perrier A 1993 SECHIBA, a new set of parameterizations of the hydrologic exchanges at the land atmosphere interface within the LMD atmospheric global circulation model J. Clim. 6 248-73
25. Espinoza J 2009 Impact de la variabilité climatique sur l'hydrologie du bassin amazonien PhD Thesis Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI
26. Espinoza J, Fraizy P, Guyot J, Ordonez Galvez J, Pombosa R and Ronchail J 2006 Variability in discharge of the Peruvian Amazon Climate Variability and Change - Hydrological Impacts (IAHS Publication vol 308) (Wallingford: IAHS Press) pp 424-9 (Pubitemid 44925705)
27. Espinoza J, Guyot J, Ronchail J, Cochonneau G, Filizola N, Fraizy P, Labat D, de Oliveira E, Ordonez J and Vauchel P 2009a Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the Amazon basin (1974-2004) J. Hydrol. 375 297-311
28. Espinoza J, Ronchail J, Guyot J, Cochonneau G, Filizola N, Lavado W, De Oliveira E, Pombosa R and Vauchel P 2009b Spatio-temporal rainfall variability in the Amazon basin countries (Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador) Int. J. Climatol. 29 1574-94
29. Espinoza J, Ronchail J, Guyot J, Junquas C, Vauchel P, Lavado W, Drapeau G and Pombosa R 2011 Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): understanding the exceptional 2010 drought Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L13406
30. Figueroa S and Nobre C 1990 Precipitation distribution over central and western tropical South America Climanalise 5 36-45
31. Fowler H, Blenkinsop S and Tebaldi C 2007 Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling Int. J. Climatol. 27 1547-78 (Pubitemid 47604181)
32. Getirana A, Bonnet M, Rotunno Filho O, Collischonn W, Guyot J, Seyler F and Mansur W 2010 Hydrological modelling and water balance of the Negro River basin: evaluation based on in situ and spatial altimetry data Hydrol. Process. 24 3219-36
33. Guimberteau M et al 2012 Discharge simulation in the sub-basins of the Amazon using ORCHIDEE forced by new datasets Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16 911-35
34. Guyot J, Callède J, Molinier M, Guimarães W and De Oliveira E 1998 La variabilité hydrologique actuelle dans le bassin de l'Amazone Bull. Inst. Fr. Etudes Andines 27 779-88
35. Joetzjer E, Douville H, Delire C and Ciais P 2013 Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3 Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1644-1
36. Kay A, Davies H, Bell V and Jones R 2009 Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England Clim. Change 92 41-63
37. Labat D 2005 Recent advances in wavelet analyses: Part 1. A review of concepts J. Hydrol. 314 275-88 (Pubitemid 41727787)
38. Labat D, Ronchail J, Callede J, Guyot J, De Oliveira E and Guimarães W 2004 Wavelet analysis of Amazon hydrological regime variability Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L02501
39. Langerwisch F, Rost S, Gerten D, Poulter B, Rammig A and Cramer W 2012 Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 9 261-300
40. Lavado Casimiro W, Labat D, Guyot J and Ardoin-Bardin S 2011 Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Peruvian Amazon-Andes basin Hydrol. Process. 25 3721-34
41. Lewis S, Brando P, Phillips O, van der Heijden G and Nepstad D 2011 The 2010 Amazon drought Science 331 554
42. Li W, Fu R and Dickinson R 2006 Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4 J. Geophys. Res. 111 D02111
43. Li W, Fu R, Juárez R and Fernandes K 2008 Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363 1767-72 (Pubitemid 351482514)
44. Malhi Y, Roberts J, Betts R, Killeen T, Li W and Nobre C 2008 Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon Science 319 169-72
45. Marengo J 1992 Interannual variability of surface climate in the Amazon basin Int. J. Climatol. 12 853-63 (Pubitemid 23378496)
46. Marengo J 2004 Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78 79-96 (Pubitemid 38865525)
47. Marengo J 2006 On the hydrological cycle of the Amazon Basin: a historical review and current state-of-the-art Rev. Bras. Meteorol. 21 1-19
48. Marengo J 2009 Long-term trends and cycles in the hydrometeorology of the Amazon basin since the late 1920s Hydrol. Process. 23 3236-44
49. Marengo J, Nobre C, Tomasella J, Oyama M, Sampaio de Oliveira G, de Oliveira R, Camargo H, Alves L and Brown I 2008 The drought of Amazonia in 2005 J. Clim. 21 495-516 (Pubitemid 351395633)
50. Marengo J, Rusticucci M, Penalba O and Renom M 2010 An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends Clim. Change 98 509-29
51. Marengo J, Tomasella J, Alves L, Soares W and Rodriguez D 2011 The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L12703
52. Marengo J, Tomasella J, Soares W, Alves L and Nobre C 2012 Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin Theor. Appl. Climatol. 107 73-85
53. Marengo J, Tomasella J and Uvo C 1998 Trends in streamflow and rainfall in tropical South America: Amazonia, Eastern Brazil, and Northwestern Peru J. Geophys. Res. 103 1775-83
54. Meade R, Rayol J, Da Conceicao S and Natividade J 1991 Backwater effects in the Amazon River basin of Brazil Environ. Geol. Water Sci. 18 105-14 (Pubitemid 21693399)
55. Meehl G et al 2007 Global climate projections Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis ed S Solomon (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 747-845
56. Milly P, Dunne K and Vecchia A 2005 Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate Nature 438 347-50 (Pubitemid 41643949)
57. Molinier M 1992 Régionalisation des débits du Bassin Amazonien: premiers résultats Régionalisation en hydrologie: application au développement (Colloques et Seminaires) ed L Le Barbé and E Servat (Montpellier: ORSTOM) pp 489-502
58. Molinier M, Guyot J, De Oliveira E, Guimarães V and Chaves A 1995 Hydrologie du bassin de l'Amazone Proc. Grands Bassins Fluviaux Péri-atlantiques (Paris: PEGI) pp 335-44
59. Nepstad D, Tohver I, Ray D, Moutinho P and Cardinot G 2007 Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest Ecology 88 2259-69 (Pubitemid 351345135)
60. Ngo-Duc T, Polcher J and Laval K 2005 A 53-year forcing data set for land surface models J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 110 D06116 (Pubitemid 40771620)
61. Nobre C, Sellers P and Shukla J 1991 Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change J. Clim. 4 957-88
62. Nobrega M, Collischonn W, Tucci C and Paz A 2011 Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15 585-95
63. Nohara D, Kitoh A, Hosaka M and Oki T 2006 Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble J. Hydrometeorol. 7 1076-89 (Pubitemid 44734315)
64. Paiva R, Collischonn W, Schettini E, Vidal J, Hendrickx F and Lopez A 2011a The case studies: climate change impacts on water resources in the Quaraí River Basin Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources ed F Fung, A Lopez and M New (Chichester: John Wiley & Sons) pp 136-82
65. Paiva R, Collischonn W and Tucci C 2011b Large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling using limited data and a GIS based approach J. Hydrol. 406 170-81
66. Paiva R C D, Collischonn W, Bonnet M P and Gonçalves L G G 2012 On the sources of hydrological prediction uncertainty in the Amazon Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16 3127-37
67. Phillips O et al 2009 Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest Science 323 1344-7
68. 2 on global river runoff trends Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 15242 (Pubitemid 47502903)
69. Polcher J 2003 Les processus de surface à l'échelle globale et leurs interactions avec l'atmosphère Habilitation à diriger des recherches Université Paris VI
70. Richey J, Nobre C and Desser C 1989 Amazon River discharge and climate variability: 1903 to 1985 Science 246 101-3 (Pubitemid 20400984)
71. Ronchail J, Bourrel L, Cochonneau G, Vauchel P, Phillips L, Castro A, Guyot J and De Oliveira E 2005a Inundations in the Mamore basin (South-Western Amazon-Bolivia) and sea-surface temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans J. Hydrol. 302 223-38 (Pubitemid 40020307)
72. Ronchail J, Cochonneau G, Molinier M, Guyot J, De Miranda Chaves A, Guimarães V and de Oliveira E 2002 Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans Int. J. Climatol. 22 1663-86 (Pubitemid 35381500)
73. Ronchail J, Guyot J, Espinoza Villar J, Fraizy P, Cochonneau G, De Oliveira E, Filizola N and Ordenez J 2006 Impact of the Amazon tributaries on major floods at Óbidos Climate Variability and Change - Hydrological Impacts (IAHS Publication vol 308) (Wallingford: IAHS Press) pp 220-5 (Pubitemid 44925671)
74. Ronchail J, Labat D, Callede J, Cochonneau G, Guyot J, Filizola N and De Oliveira E 2005b Discharge variability within the Amazon basin Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change - Impact Assessment and Decision Making (IAHS Publication vol 296) (Wallingford: IAHS Press) pp 21-30
75. Salati E, Schindler W, Victoria D, Salati E, Souza J and Villa Nova N 2009 The Economics of Climate Change in Brazil: Costs and Opportunities (São Paulo: Vox Editora e Gráfica Ltda)
76. Sankarasubramanian A, Vogel R and Limbrunner J 2001 Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States Water Resources Res. 37 1771-81 (Pubitemid 32480675)
77. Schaake J 1990 From climate to flow Climate Change and US Water Resources ed P E Waggoner (New York: John Wiley & Sons) pp 177-206
78. Shuttleworth W 1988 Evaporation from Amazonian rainforest Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 233 321-46
79. Sitch S et al 2003 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model Global Change Biol. 9 161-85 (Pubitemid 36294628)
80. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M and Miller H (ed) 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press) pp 235-337
81. Sterling S, Ducharne A and Polcher J 2012 The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle Nature Clim. Change at press
82. Tang Q and Lettenmaier D 2012 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L06403
83. Tomasella J, Borma L, Marengo J, Rodriguez D, Cuartas L A, Nobre C and Prado M 2011 The droughts of 1996-1997 and 2004-2005 in Amazonia: hydrological response in the river main-stem Hydrol. Process. 25 1228-42
84. Tomasella J, Rodriguez D, Cuartas L, Ferreira M, Ferreira J and Marengo J 2009 Estudo de impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre os recursos hídricos superficiais e sobre os níveis dos aqüíferos na bacia do rio Tocantins Technical Report Convênio de Cooperação Técnico-Científica (São José dos Campos: INPE) p 70
85. Trigg M, Wilson M, Bates P, Horritt M, Alsdorf D, Forsberg B and Vega M 2009 Amazon flood wave hydraulics J. Hydrol. 374 92-105
86. Uvo C and Graham N 1998 Seasonal runoff forecast for northern South America: a statistical model Water Resources Res. 34 3515-24 (Pubitemid 29032966)
87. Vano J, Das T and Lettenmaier D 2012 Hydrologic sensitivities of colorado river Runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature J. Hydrometeorol. 13 932-49
88. Vera C, Silvestri G, Liebmann B and González P 2006 Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L13707 (Pubitemid 44945956)
89. Verant S, Laval K, Polcher J and De Castro M 2004 Sensitivity of the continental hydrological cycle to the spatial resolution over the Iberian Peninsula J. Hydrometeorol. 5 267-85 (Pubitemid 38531534)
90. 2 sensitivity of the SECHIBA-BGC coupled SVAT-BGC model Phys. Chem. Earth 21 489-97
91. Watanabe S, Kanae S, Seto S, Yeh P, Hirabayashi Y and Oki T 2012 Intercomparison of bias-correction methods for monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by multiple climate models J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 117 D23114
92. Wilby R, Hay L and Leavesley G 1999 A comparison of downscaled and raw GCM output: implications for climate change scenarios in the San Juan River basin, Colorado J. Hydrol. 225 67-91
93. Xu L, Samanta A, Costa M, Ganguly S, Nemani R and Myneni R 2011 Widespread decline in greenness of Amazonian vegetation due to the 2010 drought Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L07402
94. Yamashima R, Takata K and Matsumoto J 2011 Numerical study of the impacts of land use/cover changes between 1700 and 1850 on the seasonal hydroclimate in monsoon Asia J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan Ser. II 89A 291-8
95. Yamazaki D, Kanae S, Kim H and Oki T 2011 A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model Water Resources Res. 47 W04501
96. Yamazaki D, Lee H, Alsdorf D, Dutra E, Kim H, Kanae S and Oki T 2012 Analysis of the water level dynamics simulated by a global river model: a case study in the Amazon River Water Resources Res. 48 W09508
97. Yoon J and Zeng N 2010 An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall Clim. Dyn. 34 249-64
98. Zeng N, Yoon J, Marengo J, Subramaniam A, Nobre C, Mariotti A and Neelin J 2008 Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought Environ. Res. Lett. 3 014002