Stochastic modeling and forecasting of load demand for electric bus battery-swap station

IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery

Volumn 29, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 1909-1917

  Dai, Qian ^a   Cai, Tao ^a   Duan, Shanxu ^a   Zhao, Feng ^a  

^a HUAZHONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

Battery swap station (BSS); charging load forecasting; charging load model; electric vehicles (EVs); Monte Carlo Simulation; probability interval forecast

Indexed keywords

CHARGING (BATTERIES); ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING; ELECTRIC VEHICLES; ENERGY UTILIZATION; FORECASTING; INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS;

BATTERY-SWAP STATION (BSS); CHARGING LOAD MODELING; CHARGING LOADS; ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVS); MONTE-CARLO SIMULATIONS; PROBABILITY INTERVALS;

SECONDARY BATTERIES;

EID: 84905092885     PISSN: 08858977     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRD.2014.2308990     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. J. A. P. Lopes, F. J. Soares, and P. M. R. Almeida, "Integration of electric vehicles in the electric power system," Proc. IEEE, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 168-183, Jan. 2011.
2. K. Parks, P. Denholm, and T. Markel, "Costs and emissions associated with plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging in the Xcel eergy Colorado service territory," National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA, Tech. rep. NREL/TP-640-41410, May 2007.
3. W. Su, H. Eichi, W. Zeng, and M.Y. Chow, "Asurvey on the electrification of transportation in a smart grid environment," IEEE Trans. Ind. Inf., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1-10, Feb. 2012.
4. H. Turker, S. Bacha, D. Chatroux, and A. Hably, "Low-voltage transformer loss-of-life assessments for a high penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)," IEEE Trans. Power Del., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 1323-1331, Jul. 2012.
5. K. Clement-Nyns, E. Haesen, and J. Driesen, "The impact of charging plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on a residential distribution grid," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 371-380, Feb. 2010.
6. J. C. Gómez and M.M. Morcos, "Impact of EV battery chargers on the power quality of distribution systems," IEEE Trans. Power Del., vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 975-981, Jul. 2003.
7. W. Kempton and J. Tomi'c, "Vehicle-to-grid power fundamentals: Calculating capacity and net revenue," J. Power Source, vol. 144, no. 1, pp. 268-279, Jun. 2005.
8. N. Rotering and M. Ilic, "Optimal charge control of plug-In hybrid electric vehicles in deregulated electricity markets," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 1021-1029, Aug. 2011.
9. W. Kempton and J. Tomi'c, "Vehicle-to-grid power implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy," J. Power Sources, vol. 144, no. 1, pp. 280-294, Jun. 2005.
10. H. Lund and W. Kempton, "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 3578-3587, Sep. 2008.
11. A. Lojowska, D. Kurowicka, G. Papaefthymiou, and L. van der Sluis, "Stochastic modeling of power demand due to EVs using Copula," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 1960-1968, Nov. 2012.
12. K. Qian, C. Zhou, M. Allan, and Y. Yuan, "Modeling of load demand due to EV battery charging in distribution systems," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 802-810, May 2011.
13. D. Wu, D. C. Aliprantis, and K. Gkritza, "Electric energy and power consumption by light-duty plug-in electric vehicles," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 738-746, May 2011.
14. M. F. Shaaban, Y. M. Atwa, and E. F. El-Saadany, "PEVs modeling and impacts mitigation in distribution networks," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 1122-1131, May 2013.
15. Y. Zheng, Z. Dong, Y. Xu, K. Meng, J. Zhao, and J. Qiu, "Electric vehicle battery charging/swap stations in distribution systems: Comparison study and optimal planning," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 221-229, Jan. 2014.
16. M. Takagi, Y. Iwafune, H. Yamamoto, K. Yamaji, K. Okano, R. Hiwatari, and T. Ikeya, "Economic value of PV energy storage using batteries of battery switch stations," IEEE Trans. Sust. Energy, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 164-173, Jan. 2013.
17. P. Lombardi, M. Heuer, and Z. Styczynski, "Battery switch station as storage system in an autonomous power system: Optimization issue," in Proc. IEEE Power Energy Soc. Gen. Meeting, 2010, pp. 1-6.
18. C. Wang, J. Yang, N. Liu, and Y. Mao, "Study on sitting and sizing of battery-switch station," in Proc. 4th Int. Conf. Elect. Utility Dereg. Restruct. Power Technol., 2011, pp. 657-662.
19. F. Xie, M. Huang, W. Zhang, and J. Li, "Research on electric vehicle charging station load forecasting," in Proc. Int. Conf. Advanced Power Syst. Autom. Protect., 2011, vol. 3, pp. 2055-2060.
20. D. A. Reynolds and R. C. Rose, "Robust text-independent speaker identification using Gaussian mixture speaker models," IEEE Speech Audio Process., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 72-83, Jan. 1995.
21. Y. Zhang, M. Brady, and S. Smith, "Segmentation of brain MR images through a hidden Markov random field model and the expectation- maximization algorithm," IEEE Trans. Med. Imag., vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 45-57, Jan. 2001. (Pubitemid 32293419)
22. C. Carson, S. Belongie, H. Greenspan, and J. Malik, "Blobworld: Image segmentation using expectation-maximization and its application to image querying," IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., vol. 24, no. 8, pp. 1026-1038, Aug. 2002.
23. K. P. Burnham and D. R. Anderson, "Multimodel inference understanding AIC and BIC in model selection," Sociol. Meth. Res., vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 261-304, Nov. 2004. (Pubitemid 39519124)
24. G. Li and X. Zhang, "Modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging demand in probabilistic power flow calculations," IEEE Trans. Smart Grid, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 492-499, Mar. 2012.
25. E. Lorenz, J. Hurka, D. Heinemann, and H. G. Beyer, "Irradiance forecasting for the power prediction of grid-connected Photovoltaic systems," IEEE J. Sel. Topics Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sens., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 2-10, Mar. 2009.
26. R. J. Bessa, V. Miranda, A. Botterud, J. Wang, and E. M. Constantinescu, "Time adaptive conditional kernel density estimation for wind power forecasting," IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 280-294, Oct. 2012.
27. P. Pinson, Estimation of the Uncertainty inWind Dower Forecasting. Paris, France: Ecole des Mines de Paris, 2006.
28. H. Bludszuweit, J. A. Domínguez-Navarro, and A. Llombart, "Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 983-991, Aug. 2008.
29. A. Luig, S. Bofinger, and H. G. Beyer, "Analysis of confidence intervals for the prediction of the regional wind power output," in Proc. Eur. Wind Energy, 2001, pp. 725-728.