Could there have been substantial declines in sexual risk behavior across sub-Saharan Africa in the mid-1990s?

Epidemics

Volumn 8, Issue , 2014, Pages 9-17

  Awad, Susanne F ^a   Abu Raddad, Laith J ^a,b,c  

^a Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group Weill Cornell Medical College Qatar Cornell University Qatar Foundation Education City ^*  (Qatar)

^b WEILL CORNELL MEDICAL COLLEGE   (United States)

^c USA   (United States)

Author keywords

HIV transmission; Mathematical model; Sexual network; Sexual risk behavior; Sub Saharan Africa

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; ARTICLE; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; HISTORY; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; HIGH RISK BEHAVIOR; HIV INFECTIONS; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; RISK-TAKING; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR;

EID: 84904409341     PISSN: 17554365     EISSN: 18780067     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.06.001     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Abu-Raddad L.J., Barnabas R.V., Janes H., Weiss H.A., Kublin J.G., Longini I.M., Wasserheit J.N. Have the explosive HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa been driven by higher community viral load?. AIDS 2013, 27(6):981-989.
2. Abu-Raddad L.J., Longini I.M. No HIV stage is dominant in driving the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 2008, 22(9):1055-1061.
3. Abu-Raddad L.J., Magaret A.S., Celum C., Wald A., Longini I.M., Self S.G., Corey L. Genital herpes has played a more important role than any other sexually transmitted infection in driving HIV prevalence in Africa. PLoS One 2008, 3(5):e2230.
4. Abu-Raddad L.J., Patnaik P., Kublin J.G. Dual infection with HIV and malaria fuels the spread of both diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. Science 2006, 314(5805):1603-1606.
5. Abu-Raddad L.J., Schiffer J.T., Ashley R., Mumtaz G., Alsallaq R.A., Akala F.A., Semini I., Riedner G., Wilson D. HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa. Epidemics 2010, 2(4):173-182.
6. Awad, S.F., Cuadros, D.F., Abu-Raddad, L.J. 2012. Generic patterns of HIV infection distribution in human populations (under preparation).
7. Bansal S., Grenfell B.T., Meyers L.A. When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. J. R. Soc. Interface 2007, 4(16):879-891.
8. Barabási A.L. Linked: How Everything is Connected to Everything Else and What it Means for Business, Science and Everyday Life 2003, First Plume Printing, London.
9. Barrat A., Barthelemy M., Pastor-Satorras R., Vespignani A. The architecture of complex weighted networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2004, 101(11):3747-3752.
10. Bello G., Simwaka B., Ndhlovu T., Salaniponi F., Hallett T.B. Evidence for changes in behaviour leading to reductions in HIV prevalence in urban Malawi. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2011, 87(4):296-300.
11. Boccaletti S., Latora V., Moreno Y., Chavez M., Hwang D.U. Complex networks: structure and dynamics. Phys. Rep. 2006, 424(4-5):175-308.
12. Boily M.C., Godin G., Hogben M., Sherr L., Bastos F.I. The impact of the transmission dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on sexual behaviour: a new hypothesis to explain recent increases in risk taking-behaviour among men who have sex with men. Med. Hypotheses 2005, 65(2):215-226.
13. Buve A., Carael M., Hayes R.J., Auvert B., Ferry B., Robinson N.J., Anagonou S., Kanhonou L., Laourou M., Abega S., Akam E., Zekeng L., Chege J., Kahindo M., Rutenberg N., Kaona F., Musonda R., Sukwa T., Morison L., Weiss H.A., Laga M. Multicentre study on factors determining differences in rate of spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: methods and prevalence of HIV infection. AIDS 2001, 15(Suppl. 4):S5-S14.
14. Buve A., Carael M., Hayes R.J., Auvert B., Ferry B., Robinson N.J., Anagonou S., Kanhonou L., Laourou M., Abega S., Akam E., Zekeng L., Chege J., Kahindo M., Rutenberg N., Kaona F., Musonda R., Sukwa T., Morison L., Weiss H.A., Laga M. The multicentre study on factors determining the differential spread of HIV in four African cities: summary and conclusions. AIDS 2001, 15(Suppl. 4):S127-S131.
15. Carnegie N.B., Morris M. Size matters: concurrency and the epidemic potential of HIV in small networks. PLoS One 2012, 7(8):e43048.
16. Catania J.A., Kegeles S.M., Coates T.J. Towards an understanding of risk behavior: an AIDS risk reduction model (ARRM). Health Educ. Q. 1990, 17(1):53-72.
17. Cleland J., Boerma J.T., Carael M., Weir S.S. Monitoring sexual behaviour in general populations: a synthesis of lessons of the past decade. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2004, 80(Suppl 2):ii1-ii7.
18. Cuadros D.F., Awad S.F., Abu-Raddad L.J. Mapping HIV clustering: a strategy for identifying populations at high risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. Int. J. Health Geogr. 2013, 12:28.
19. Cuadros D.F., Crowley P.H., Augustine B., Stewart S.L., Garcia-Ramos G. Effect of variable transmission rate on the dynamics of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. BMC Infect. Dis. 2011, 11:216.
20. Delva W., Wilson D.P., Abu-Raddad L., Gorgens M., Wilson D., Hallett T.B., Welte A. HIV treatment as prevention: principles of good HIV epidemiology modelling for public health decision-making in all modes of prevention and evaluation. PLoS Med. 2012, 9(7):e1001239.
21. Ferry B., Carael M., Buve A., Auvert B., Laourou M., Kanhonou L., de Loenzien M., Akam E., Chege J., Kaona F. Comparison of key parameters of sexual behaviour in four African urban populations with different levels of HIV infection. AIDS 2001, 15(Suppl. 4):S41L S50.
22. Garnett G.P., Gregson S., Stanecki K.A. Criteria for detecting and understanding changes in the risk of HIV infection at a national level in generalised epidemics. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2006, 82(Suppl. 1):i48-i51.
23. Gregson S., Gonese E., Hallett T.B., Taruberekera N., Hargrove J.W., Lopman B., Corbett E.L., Dorrington R., Dube S., Dehne K., Mugurungi O. HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2010.
24. Hallett T.B., Aberle-Grasse J., Bello G., Boulos L.M., Cayemittes M.P., Cheluget B., Chipeta J., Dorrington R., Dube S., Ekra A.K., Garcia-Calleja J.M., Garnett G.P., Greby S., Gregson S., Grove J.T., Hader S., Hanson J., Hladik W., Ismail S., Kassim S., Kirungi W., Kouassi L., Mahomva A., Marum L., Maurice C., Nolan M., Rehle T., Stover J., Walker N. Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2006, 82(Suppl. 1):i1-i8.
25. Hallett T.B., Gregson S., Mugurungi O., Gonese E., Garnett G.P. Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe. Epidemics 2009, 1(2):108-117.
26. Halperin D.T., Mugurungi O., Hallett T.B., Muchini B., Campbell B., Magure T., Benedikt C., Gregson S. A surprising prevention success: why did the HIV epidemic decline in Zimbabwe?. PLoS Med. 2011, 8(2):e1000414.
27. Hamilton D.T., Handcock M.S., Morris M. Degree distributions in sexual networks: a framework for evaluating evidence. Sex Transm. Dis. 2008, 35(1):30-40.
28. Handcock M.S., Jones J.H. Likelihood-based inference for stochastic models of sexual network formation. Theor. Popul. Biol. 2004, 65(4):413-422.
29. Hargrove J.W., Humphrey J.H., Mahomva A., Williams B.G., Chidawanyika H., Mutasa K., Marinda E., Mbizvo M.T., Nathoo K.J., Iliff P.J., Mugurungi O. Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe. Epidemics 2011, 3(2):88-94.
30. Helleringer S., Kohler H.P., Mkandawire J. Women underestimate the age of their partners during survey interviews: implications for HIV risk associated with age mixing in northern Malawi. Sex Transm. Dis. 2011, 38(11):1030-1035.
31. Kamali A., Carpenter L.M., Whitworth J.A., Pool R., Ruberantwari A., Ojwiya A. Seven-year trends in HIV-1 infection rates, and changes in sexual behaviour, among adults in rural Uganda. AIDS 2000, 14(4):427-434.
32. Kilian A.H., Gregson S., Ndyanabangi B., Walusaga K., Kipp W., Sahlmuller G., Garnett G.P., Asiimwe-Okiror G., Kabagambe G., Weis P., von Sonnenburg F. Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda. AIDS 1999, 13(3):391-398.
33. Kretzschmar M., Morris M. Measures of concurrency in networks and the spread of infectious disease. Math. Biosci. 1996, 133(2):165-195.
34. Lagarde E., Auvert B., Carael M., Laourou M., Ferry B., Akam E., Sukwa T., Morison L., Maury B., Chege J., N'Doye I., Buve A. Concurrent sexual partnerships and HIV prevalence in five urban communities of sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 2001, 15(7):877-884.
35. Lagarias J.C., Reeds J.A., Wright M.H., Wright P.E. Convergence properties of the Nelder-MeadSimplex method in low dimensions. SIAM J. Optimization 1998, 9(1):112-147.
36. Low-Beer D., Stoneburner R.L. Behaviour and communication change in reducing HIV: is Uganda unique?. Afr. J. AIDS Res. 2003, 2(1):9-21.
37. Mahomva A., Greby S., Dube S., Mugurungi O., Hargrove J., Rosen D., Dehne K.L., Gregson S., St Louis M., Hader S. HIV prevalence and trends from data in Zimbabwe, 1997-2004. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2006, 82(Suppl. 1):i42-i47.
38. MATLAB® The Language of Technical Computing 2013, The MathWorks, Inc.
39. May R.M., Anderson R.M. The Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc Lond. Series B: Biol. Sci. 1988, 321(1207):565-607.
40. Morris M. Sexual networks and HIV. AIDS 1997, 11(Suppl. A):S209-S216.
41. Morris M. Network Epidemiology: A Handbook for Survey Design and Data Collection 2004, Oxford University Press.
42. Morris M., Kretzschmar M. Concurrent partnerships and the spread of HIV. AIDS 1997, 11(5):641-648.
43. Muchini B., Benedikt C., Gregson S., Gomo E., Mate R., Mugurungi O., Magure T., Campbell B., Dehne K., Halperin D. Local perceptions of the forms, timing and causes of behavior change in response to the AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe. AIDS Behav. 2011, 15(2):487-498.
44. Nagelkerke N., de Vlas S.J., Jha P., Luo M., Plummer F.A., Kaul R. Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa. AIDS 2009, 23(1):125-130.
45. Nagelkerke N.J., Arora P., Jha P., Williams B., McKinnon L., de Vlas S.J. The rise and fall of HIV in high-prevalence countries: a challenge for mathematical modeling. PLoS Comput. Biol. 2014, 10(3):e1003459.
46. Ng'weshemi J.Z., Boerma J.T., Pool R., Barongo L., Senkoro K., Maswe M., Isingo R., Schapink D., Nnko S., Borgdorff M.W. Changes in male sexual behaviour in response to the AIDS epidemic: evidence from a cohort study in urban Tanzania. AIDS 1996, 10(12):1415-1420.
47. Njeuhmeli E., Forsythe S., Reed J., Opuni M., Bollinger L., Heard N., Castor D., Stover J., Farley T., Menon V., Hankins C. Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa. PLoS Med. 2011, 8(11):e1001132.
48. Obasi A., Mosha F., Quigley M., Sekirassa Z., Gibbs T., Munguti K., Todd J., Grosskurth H., Mayaud P., Changalucha J., Brown D., Mabey D., Hayes R. Antibody to herpes simplex virus type 2 as a marker of sexual risk behavior in rural Tanzania. J. Infect. Dis. 1999, 179(1):16-24.
49. Pisani E., Lazzari S., Walker N., Schwartlander B. HIV surveillance: a global perspective. J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr. 2003, 32(Suppl 1):S3L 11.
50. Stoneburner R.L., Low-Beer D. Population-level HIV declines and behavioral risk avoidance in Uganda. Science 2004, 304(5671):714-718.
51. The World Bank, 2014. A comprehensive review of empirical and modelled HIV incidence trends (1990-2012) in Sub-Saharan Africa (Under preparation).
52. UNAIDS, 1999. Trends in HIV incidence and prevalence: natural course of the epidemic or results of behavioural change?.
53. UNAIDS, 2010. UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic 2010.
54. UNAIDS, 2011. UNAIDS Data Tables 2011. Available at (accessed 01.14). http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/unaidspublication/2011/JC2225_UNAIDS_datatables_en.pdf.
55. UNAIDS, 2012. UNAIDS World AIDS Day Report. Available at (accessed 12.12.14). http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/epidemiology/2012/gr2012/JC2434_WorldAIDSday_results_en.pdf.
56. UNAIDS, 2013a. AIDS by the numbers. Available at (accessed 04.14). http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/unaidspublication/2013/JC2571_AIDS_by_the_numbers_en.pdf.
57. UNAIDS, 2013b. Global HIV/AIDS response: UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2013. Available at: (accessed 04.14). http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/epidemiology/2013/gr2013/UNAIDS_Global_Report_2013_en.pdf.
58. UNAIDS/WHO, 2010a. AIDS epidemic update 2010: UNAIDS fact sheet. Available at (accessed 23.07.12). http://www.unaids.org/documents/20101123_FS_SSA_em_en.pdf.
59. UNAIDS/WHO, 2010b. Epidemiological data, HIV estimates 1990-2009. Available at http://www.unaids.org/en/dataanalysis/epidemiology/.
60. UNAIDS/WHO, 2011. Global HIV/AIDS response: Epidemic update and health sector progress towards Universal Access. Available at: http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/unaidspublication/2011/20111130_UA_Report_en.pdf.
61. Velicia F.J.F. On the moments of a Wood Saxon beta distribution. J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 1987.
62. Walker P.T., Hallett T.B., White P.J., Garnett G.P. Interpreting declines in HIV prevalence: impact of spatial aggregation and migration on expected declines in prevalence. Sex. Transm. Infect. 2008, 84(Suppl 2):ii42-ii48.
63. Watts C.H., May R.M. The influence of concurrent partnerships on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS. Math. Biosci. 1992, 108(1):89-104.
64. Watts D.J., Strogatz S.H. Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature 1998, 393(6684):440-442.
65. WHO (2008). Towards Universal Access-Scaling up priority HIV/AIDS interventions in the health sector, June 2008. Available at: (accessed 01.14). http://www.who.int/hiv/data/ART_SSA_2003_2007.png%3Fua=1.
66. Woods R.D., Saxon D.S. Diffuse surface optical model for nucleon-nuclei scattering. Phys. Rev. 1954, 95(2):577-578.