Evidence for changes in behaviour leading to reductions in HIV prevalence in urban Malawi

Sexually Transmitted Infections

Volumn 87, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 296-300

  Bello, George ^a,b   Simwaka, Bertha ^b   Ndhlovu, Tchaka ^b   Salaniponi, Felix ^a   Hallett, Timothy B ^c  

^a MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Malawi)

^b Research for Equity and Community Health Trust   (Malawi)

^c IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; BEHAVIOR CHANGE; CONDOM; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; INCIDENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALAWI; MALE; PREGNANCY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RURAL AREA; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SEXUALITY; URBAN AREA;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; COITUS; CONDOMS; FEMALE; HEALTH BEHAVIOR; HIV INFECTIONS; HOMOSEXUALITY, MALE; HUMANS; MALAWI; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PREVALENCE; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SEXUAL PARTNERS; UNSAFE SEX; URBAN HEALTH; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 79956272205     PISSN: 13684973     EISSN: 14682044     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/sti.2010.043786     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Sepulveda J, Carpenter C, Curran J, et al; Committee for the Evaluation of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Implementation. PEPFAR Implementation: Progress and Promise. Washington, D.C: Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, 2007.
2. Weiss HA, Wasserheit JN, Barnabas RV, et al. Persisting with prevention: the importance of adherence for HIV prevention. Emerg Themes Epidemiol 2008;5:8.
3. UNAIDS. Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic. Geneva: UNAIDS, 2008. http://www.unaids.org/en/KnowledgeCentre/HIVData/GlobalReport/2008/ 2008-Global-report.asp.
4. Hankins C, Hargrove J, Williams B, et al; UNAIDS/WHO/SACEMA Expert Group on Modelling the Impact Cost of Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention. Male circumcision for HIV prevention in high HIV prevalence settings: what can mathematical modelling contribute to informed decision making? PLoS Med 2009;6:e1000109.
5. Hallett TB, Singh K, Smith JA, et al. Understanding the impact of male circumcision interventions on the spread of HIV in southern Africa. PLoS ONE 2008;3:e2212.
6. Abbas UL, Anderson RM, Mellors JW. Potential impact of antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 transmission in resource-limited settings. PLoS One 2007;2:e875.
7. Granich RM, Gilks CF, Dye C, et al. Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model. Lancet 2009;373:48-57.
8. Kilian AH, Gregson S, Ndyanabangi B, et al. Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda. AIDS 1999;13:391-8. (Pubitemid 29095102)
9. Stoneburner RL, Low-Beer D. Population-level HIV declines and behavioral risk avoidance in Uganda. Science 2004;304:714-18. (Pubitemid 38560873)
10. Nelson KE, Celentano DD, Eiumtrakol S, et al. Changes in sexual behavior and a decline in HIV infection among young men in Thailand. N Engl J Med 1996;335:297-303. (Pubitemid 26362376)
11. Rojanapithayakorn W, Hanenberg R. The 100% condom program in Thailand. AIDS 1996;10:1-7. (Pubitemid 26016396)
12. UNAIDS. Evidence for HIV Decline in Zimbabwe: A Comprehensive Review of the Epidemiological Data, 2005. http://www.epidem.org.
13. Hallett TB, Gregson S, Gonese E, et al. Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe. Epidemics 2009;1:108-17.
14. Hallett TB, Aberle-Grasse J, Bello G, et al. Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti. Sex Transm Infect 2006;82(Suppl 1):i1-8.
15. Walker P, Hallett TB, White PJ, et al. Interpreting declines in HIV prevalence: the impact of spatial aggregation and migration on expected declines in prevalence. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84:ii42-8.
16. Grassly NC, Garnett GP, Schwartlander B, et al. The effectiveness of HIV prevention and the epidemiological context. Bull World Health Organ 2001;79:1121-32. (Pubitemid 34084005)
17. Hallett TB, White PJ, Garnett GP. Appropriate evaluation of HIV prevention interventions: from experiment to full-scale implementation. Sex Transm Infect 2007;83:i55-60.
18. National Statistical Office [Malawi]. Macro O. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2000. Zomba, Malawi and Calverton, Maryland, USA: National Statistical Office and ORC Macro, 2001.
19. National Statistical Office [Malawi]. Macro O. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2004. Calverton, Maryland, USA: National Statistical Office and ORC Macro, 2005.
20. Poole D, Raftery AE. Inference for deterministic simulation models: the Bayesian melding approach. J Am Stat Assoc 2000;95:1244-55.
21. Alkema L, Raftery AE, Clark SJ. Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Ann Appl Stat 2007;1:229-48.
22. Garnett GP, Gregson S. Monitoring the course of the HIV-1 epidemic: the influence of patterns of fertility on HIV-1 prevalence estimates. Math Popul Stud 2000;8:251-77. (Pubitemid 32334053)
23. Alkema L, Raftery AE, Brown T. Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl 1):i11-16.
24. Ghys PD, Walker N, McFarland W, et al. Improved data, methods and tools for the 2007 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl 1):i1-4.
25. Brown T, Grassly NC, Garnett G, et al. Improving projections at the country level: the UNAIDS estimation and projection package 2005. Sex Transm Infect 2006;82(Suppl 3):iii34-40.
26. Zaba B, Boerma T, White R. Monitoring the AIDS epidemic using HIV prevalence data among young women attending antenatal clinics: prospects and problems. AIDS 2000;14:1633-45.
27. Gouws E. Comparison of HIV prevalence in population-based national surveys and ANC surveillance: implications for calibrating surveillance data. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl 1)i17-23.
28. Jeffreys H. The Theory of Probability. New York, USA: Oxford University Press, 1961.
29. Raftery A. Hypothesis testing and model selection. In: Gilks W, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter D, eds. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. London: Chapman & Hall, 1996.
30. Hallett TB, Gregson S, Lewis JJC, et al. Behaviour change in generalised HIV epidemics: impact of reducing cross-generational sex and delaying age at sexual debut. Sex Transm Infect 2007;83:i50-4.
31. Garnett GP, White PJ, Ward H. Fewer partners or more condoms? Modelling the effectiveness of STI prevention interventions. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl 2):ii4-11.
32. Morris M, Kretzschmar M. Concurrent partnerships and the spread of HIV. AIDS 1997;11:641-8. (Pubitemid 27135886)
33. Bracher M, Santow G, Watkins SC. Assessing the potential of condom use to prevent the spread of HIV: a microsimulation study. Stud Fam Plann 2004;35:48-64. (Pubitemid 38463281)
34. National AID Commission Malawi, World Health Organization, University of California San Francisco, UNAIDS, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Report of the Malawi Triangulation Project: Synthesis of Data on Trends in the National and Local HIV Epidemics And The Reach and Intensity of Prevention Efforts. Process, Key Findings, and Recommendations. Lilongwe: Malawi National AIDS Commission, 2006.
35. McKusick L, Wiley JA, Coates TJ, et al. Reported changes in the sexual behavior of men at risk for AIDS, San Francisco, 1982-84 - the AIDS Behavioral Research Project. Public Health Rep 1985;100:622-9.
36. Gregson S, Zhuwau T, Ndlovu J, et al. Methods to reduce social desirability bias in sex surveys in low-development settings: experience in Zimbabwe. Sex Transm Dis 2002;29:568-75.
37. Clark SJ. An Investigation into the Impact of HIV on Population Dynamics in Africa. University of Pennsylvania, 2001. http://www.samclark.net/Files/ Dissertation/Samuel-Clark-Demography-PhD-2001-Printed-2003-06-05.pdf.
38. Ghani AC, Garnett GP. Risks of acquiring and transmitting sexually transmitted diseases in sexual partner networks. Sex Transm Dis 2000;27:579-87.