A multinomial logit analysis of risk factors influencing road traffic injury severities in the Erzurum and Kars Provinces of Turkey

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 72, Issue , 2014, Pages 66-77

  Çelik, Ali Kemal ^a   Oktay, Erkan ^a  

^a ATATÜRK UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

Injury severity; Multinomial logit model; Traffic accident; Traffic safety; Turkey

Indexed keywords

HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS;

CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; ESTIMATION RESULTS; INJURY SEVERITY; MULTINOMIAL LOGIT; MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL; ROAD TRAFFIC INJURIES; TRAFFIC SAFETY; TURKEY;

HEALTH RISKS;

ADULT; AGED; CLASSIFICATION; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; FEMALE; HUMAN; ILLUMINATION; INJURY SCALE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; RETROSPECTIVE STUDY; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT; TURKEY; WEATHER; WOUNDS AND INJURIES; YOUNG ADULT;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; ADULT; AGED; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES; ENVIRONMENT DESIGN; FEMALE; HUMANS; LIGHTING; LOGISTIC MODELS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK FACTORS; TRAUMA SEVERITY INDICES; TURKEY; WEATHER; WOUNDS AND INJURIES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84904277093     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.06.010     Document Type: Article

References (96)

1. M. Abdel-Aty Analysis of driver injury severity levels at multiple locations using ordered probit models Journal of Safety Research 34 5 2003 597 603
2. M. Abdel-Aty, and H. Abdelwahab Modeling rear-end collisions including the role of driver's visibility and light truck vehicles using a nested logit structure Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 3 2004 447 456
3. M. Abdel-Aty, and A.E. Radwan Modelling traffic accident occurrence and involvement Accid. Anal. Prev. 32 5 2000 633 642
4. H. Al Reesi, A. Al Maniri, K. Plankermann, M. Al Hinai, S. Al Adawi, J. Davey, and J. Freeman Risky driving behavior among university students and staff in the Sultanate of Oman Accid. Anal. Prev. 58 2013 1 9
5. D. Albalate, L. Fernández, and A. Yarygina The road against fatalities: infrastructure spending vs regulation? Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 227 239
6. K.D. Awadzi, S. Classen, A. Hall, R.P. Duncan, and C.W. Garvan Predictors of injury among younger and older adults in fatal motor vehicle crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 40 6 2008 1804 1810
7. V. Beanland, M. Fitzharris, K.L. Young, and M.G. Lenné Driver inattention and driver distraction in serious casualty crashes: data from the Australian National Crash In-depth Study Accid. Anal. Prev. 54 2013 99 107
8. D.J. Begg, J.D. Langley, R.L. Brookland, S. Ameratunga, and P. Gulliver Pre-licensed driving experience and car crash involvement during the learner and restricted, licence stages of graduated driver licensing: findings from the New Zealand Drivers study Accid. Prev. 62 2014 153 160
9. A. Borowsky, and T. Oron-Gilad Exploring the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception via real-time hazard identification, hazard classification, and rating tasks Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 548 565
10. S. Boufous, C. Finch, A. Hayen, and A. Williamson The impact of environmental, vehicle and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers hospitalized as a result of a traffic crash Journal of Safety Research 39 1 2008 65 72
11. T. Brijs, D. Karlis, and G. Wets Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model Accid. Anal. Prev. 40 3 2008 1180 1190
12. J. Carson, and F. Mannering The effect of ice warning signs on ice-accident frequencies and severities Accid. Anal. Prev. 33 1 2001 99 109
13. D. Carpenter, and J.C. Pressley Graduated driver license nighttime compliance in U.S. teen drivers involved in fatal motor vehicle crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 56 2013 110 117
14. G. Cartensen The effect on accident risk of a change in driver education in Denmark Accid. Anal. Prev. 34 1 2002 111 121
15. F. Chen, and S. Chen Injury severities of truck drivers in single- and multi-vehicle accidents on rural highways Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 5 2011 1677 1688
16. Y.C. Chiou, C.C. Hwang, C.C. Chang, and C. Fu Modelling two-vehicle crash severity by a bivariate generalized ordered probit approach Accid. Anal. Prev. 51 2013 175 184
17. (Pubitemid 44015625)
18. A.E. Curry, M.R. Pfeiffer, R.K. Myers, D.R. Durbin, and M.R. Elliott Statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 65 2014 28 35
19. H. Ding, X. Zhao, J. Rong, and J. Ma Experimental research on the effectiveness of speed reduction markings based on driving simulation: a case study Accid. Anal. Prev. 60 2013 211 218
20. S. Dissanayake, and J.J. Lu Factors influential in making an injury severity difference to older drivers involved in fixed object-passenger car crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 34 5 2002 609 618 (Pubitemid 34862952)
21. J.B. Edwards The relationship between road accident severity and recorded weather Journal of Safety Research 29 4 1998 249 262 (Pubitemid 128435288)
22. J.P. Ehsani, C.R. Bingham, and J.T. Shope The effect of the learner Graduated Driver Licensing components on teen drivers' crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 327 336
23. N. Eluru, and C.R. Bhat A joint econometric analysis of seat-belt use and crash-related injury severity Accid. Anal. Prev. 39 5 2007 1037 1049 (Pubitemid 47374063)
24. N. Eluru, C.R. Bhat, and D.A. Hensher A mixed generalized ordered response model for examining pedestrian and bicyclist injury severity level in traffic crashes Accid. Anal. Prev. 40 3 2008 1033 1054
25. N. Eluru Evaluating alternate discrete choice frameworks for modeling ordinal discrete variables Accid. Anal. Prev. 55 2013 1 11
26. N. Eluru, V. Chakour, M. Chamberlain, and L.F. Miranda-Moreno Modelling vehicle operating speed on urban roads in Montreal: a panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 125 134
27. R. Elvik Can it be true that most drivers are safer than the average driver? Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 301 308
28. R. Elvik, M.W.J. Sørensen, and T.-O. Nævestad Factors influencing safety in a sample of marked pedestrian crossings selected for safety inspections in the city of Oslo Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 64 70
29. R. Factor, D. Mahalel, and G. Yair Inter-group differences in road-traffic crash involvement Accid. Anal. Prev. 40 6 2008 2000 2007
30. A.I. Glendon, A. McNally Jarvis, S.L. Chalmers, and R.L. Salisbury Evaluating a novice driver and pre-driver road safety intervention Accid. Anal. Prev. 64 2014 100 110
31. R.C. Gray, M.A. Quddus, and A. Evans Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain Journal of Safety Research 39 5 2008 483 495
32. W.H. Greene Econometric Analysis 5th ed. 2003 Prentice Hall
33. F.G. Habtemichael, and L. de Picado-Santos The impact of high-risk drivers and benefits of limiting their driving degree of freedom Accid. Anal. Prev. 60 2013 305 315
34. M.O. Haque Measurement and dimension of road fatality in Brunei Int. J. Injury Control Saf. Promot. 18 1 2011 45 55
35. J.M. Holdridge, V.N. Shankar, and G.F. Ulfarsson The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects Journal of Safety Research 36 2 2005 139 147 (Pubitemid 40654875)
36. M. Hosseinpour, A.S. Yahaya, and A.F. Sadullah Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: case studies from Malaysian Federal Roads Accid. Anal. Prev. 62 2014 209 222
37. S. Islam, and F. Mannering Driver aging and its effect on male and female single-vehicle accident injuries: some additional evidence Journal of Safety Research 37 3 2006 267 276 (Pubitemid 44251081)
38. X. Jiang, B. Huang, R.L. Zaretzki, S. Richards, X. Yan, and H. Zhang Investigating the influence of curbs on single-vehicle crash injury severity utilizing zero-inflated ordered probit models Accid. Anal. Prev. 57 2013 55 66
39. S. Jung, Q. Xiao, and Y. Yoon Evaluation of motorcycle safety using the severity of injuries Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 357 364
40. M. Karacasu, B. Ergül, and A. Altin Yavuz Estimating the causes of traffic accidents using logistic regression and discriminant analysis Int. J. Injury Control Saf. Promot. 2013 10.1080/17457300.2013.815632
41. K. Keay, and I. Simmonds Road accidents and rainfall in a large Australian city Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 3 2006 445 454
42. A. Khorashadi, D. Niemeier, V. Shankar, and F. Mannering Difference in rural and urban driver-injury severities in accidents involving large-trucks: an exploratory analysis Accid. Anal. Prev. 37 5 2005 910 921 (Pubitemid 41164366)
43. J.-K. Kim, S. Kim, G.F. Ulfarsson, and L.A. Porrello Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents Accid. Anal. Prev. 39 2 2007 238 251 (Pubitemid 44872982)
44. J.-K. Kim, G.F. Ulfarsson, S. Kim, and V. Shankar Driver-injury severity in single-vehicle crashes in California: a mixed logit analysis of heterogeneity due to age and gender Accid. Anal. Prev. 50 2013 1073 1081
45. K. Kockelman, and Y.J. Kweon Driver injury severity: an application of ordered probit models Accid. Anal. Prev. 34 4 2002 313 321 (Pubitemid 34097315)
46. S. Laapotti, E. Keskinen, M. Hatakka, and A. Katila Novice drivers' accidents and violations - a failure on higher or lower hierarchical levels of driving behavior Accid. Anal. Prev. 33 6 2001 759 769 (Pubitemid 32798105)
47. S. Laapotti, E. Keskinen, M. Hatakka, K. Hernetkoski, A. Katila, M. Peräaho, and I. Salo Driving circumstances and accidents among novice drivers Traffic Injury Prev. 7 3 2006 232 237 (Pubitemid 44451652)
48. J.D. Lemp, K.M. Kockelman, and A. Unnikrishnan Analysis of large truck crash severity using heteroskedastic ordered probit models Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 1 2011 370 380
49. Y. Li, C. Liu, and L. Ding Impact of pavement conditions on crash severity Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 399 406
50. N.V. Malyshkina, and F. Mannering Effect of increases in speed limits on severities of injuries in accidents Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2083 2008 Transportation Research Board of the National Academies Washington, DC 122 127
51. H. Martensen, and E. Dupont Comparing single vehicle and multivehicle fatal road crashes: a joint analysis of road conditions, time variables and driver characteristics Accid. Anal. Prev. 60 2013 466 471
52. S.V. Masten, R.D. Foss, and S.W. Marshall Graduated driver licensing program component calibrations and their association with fatal crash involvement Accid. Anal. Prev. 57 2013 105 113
53. P.S. McCarthy Alcohol, public policy, and highway crashes: a time-series analysis of older-driver safety J. Transp. Econ. Policy 39 1 2005 109 126
54. D. McFadden Econometric model of probabilistic choice A. Manski, D. McFadden, Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications 1981 MIT Press Cambridge, MA 198 272
55. M. Møller, and S. Haustein Peer influence on speeding behavior among male drivers aged 18 and 28 Accid. Anal. Prev. 64 2014 92 99
56. A. Morgan, and F. Mannering The effects of road-surface conditions, age, and gender on driver-injury severities Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 5 2011 1852 1863
57. K. Obeng Gender differences in injury severity risks in crashes at signalized intersections Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 4 2011 1521 1531
58. M.A. Quddus, R.B. Noland, and H.C. Chin An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models Journal of Safety Research 33 4 2002 445 462
59. S.M. Rifaat, R. Tay, and A. de Barros Effect of street pattern on the severity of crashes involving vulnerable road users Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 1 2011 276 283
60. Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways 12th Regional Directorate Provinces in the Region: Erzurum 2013 Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways Ankara http://www.kgm.gov.tr/Sayfalar/KGM/SiteTr/ Bolgeler/12Bolge/Iller/IlErzurum.aspx (accessed 26.06.13)
61. Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways 12th Regional Directorate General Information about Erzurum Province 2013 Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways Ankara http://www.kgm.gov.tr/Sayfalar/KGM/ SiteTr/Bolgeler/12Bolge/Iller/IlErzurum.aspx (accessed 26.06.13)
62. Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways 18th Regional Directorate Provinces in the Region: Kars 2013 Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways Ankara http://www.kgm.gov.tr/Sayfalar/KGM/SiteTr/ Bolgeler/18Bolge/BolgedekiIller.aspx (accessed 26.06.13)
63. Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways 18th Regional Directorate General Information about Kars City 2013 Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highways Ankara http://www.kgm.gov.tr/Sayfalar/KGM/SiteTr/ Bolgeler/18Bolge/Bolge18.aspx (accessed 26.06.13)
64. E. Santamariña-Rubio, K. Pérez, M. Olabarria, and A.M. Novoa Gender differences in road traffic injury rate using time travelled as a measure of exposure Accid. Anal. Prev. 65 2014 1 7
65. P.T. Savolainen, F. Mannering, D. Lord, and M.A. Quddus The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 5 2011 1666 1676
66. B. Scott-Parker, B. Watson, M.J. King, and M.K. Hyde Revisiting the concept of the 'problem young driver' within the context of the 'young driver problem': who are they? Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 144 152
67. M.S.B. Shaheed, K. Gkritza, W. Zhang, and Z. Hans A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle Accid. Anal. Prev. 61 2013 119 128
68. V. Shankar, and F. Mannering An explanatory multinomial logit analysis of single-vehicle motorcycle accident severity J. Saf. Res. 27 3 1996 183 194 (Pubitemid 126377132)
69. V. Shankar, F. Mannering, and W. Barfield Statistical analysis of accident severity on rural freeways Accid. Anal. Prev. 28 3 1996 391 401 (Pubitemid 126372962)
70. D. Shinar, and R. Compton Aggressive driving: an observational study of driver, vehicle, and situational variables Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 3 2004 429 437
71. K.A. Small, and C. Hsiao Multinomial logit specification tests Int. Econ. Rev. 26 3 1985 619 627
72. J.P. Thompson, M.R.J. Baldock, J.L. Mathias, and L.N. Wundersitz An examination of the environmental, driver and vehicle factors associated with the serious and fatal crashes of older rural drivers Accid. Anal. Prev. 50 2013 768 775
73. Turkish Statistical Institute Traffic Accident Statistics (Road) 2012 2013 Available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Kitap.do?metod=KitapDetay&KT-ID= 15&KITAP-ID=70
74. Turkish National Police General Traffic Accident Statistics 2013 Available at: http://www.trafik.gov.tr/Sayfalar/Istatistikler/Genel-Kaza.aspx
75. Ö. Uçar, and H. TatlIdil Factors influencing the severity of damage in bus accidents in Turkey during 2002: an application of the ordered probit model Hacettepe J. Math. Stat. 36 1 2007 79 87
76. G.M. Ulfarsson, and F. Mannering Difference in male and female injury severities in sport-utility vehicle, minivan, pickup and passenger car accidents Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 2 2004 135 147
77. F. Valent, F. Schiava, C. Savanitto, T. Gallo, S. Brusaferro, and F. Barbore Risk factors for fatal road traffic accidents in Udine, Italy Acc. Anal. Prev. 34 1 2002 71 84 (Pubitemid 32951187)
78. P.O. Wanvik Effects of road lighting: an analysis based on Dutch accident statistics 1987-2006 Accid. Anal. Prev. 41 2009 123 128
79. S. Washington, M. Karlaftis, and F. Mannering Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis 2003 Chapman & Hall/CRC Press Boca Raton, FL
80. H.B. Weiss, S. Kaplan, and C.G. Prato Analysis of factors associated with injury severity in crashes involving young New Zealand drivers Accid. Anal. Prev. 65 2014 142 155
81. WHO Speed Management: A Road Safety Manual for Decision-Makers and Practitioners 2008 World Health Organization Geneva
82. WHO Global Health Estimates, 2013 2013 World Health Organization Geneva
83. WHO Road Traffic Injuries. Fact Sheet N° 358 2013 World Health Organization Geneva
84. WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013: Supporting a Decade of Action 2013 World Health Organization Geneva
85. WHO International Classification of Diseases. 10th Revision 2013 World Health Organization Geneva
86. T. Yamamoto, and V. Shankar Bivariate ordered-response probit model of driver's and passenger's injury severities in collisions with fixed objects Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 5 2004 869 876
87. T. Yamamoto, J. Hashiji, and V. Shankar Underreporting in traffic accident data, bias in parameters and structure of injury severity models Accid. Anal. Prev. 40 4 2008 1320 1329
88. X. Yan, E. Radwan, and M. Abdel-Aty Characteristics of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections using multiple logistic regression model Accid. Anal. Prev. 37 6 2005 983 995 (Pubitemid 41475557)
89. S. Yasmin, and N. Eluru Evaluating alternative discrete outcome frameworks for modelling crash injury severity Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 506 521
90. S. Yasmin, N. Eluru, C.R. Bhat, and R. Tay A latent segmentation based generalized ordered logit model to examine factors influencing driver injury severity Anal. Methods Accid. Res. 1 2014 23 38
91. K.K.W. Yau Risk factors affecting the severity of single vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong Accid. Anal. Prev. 36 3 2004 333 340
92. K.K.W. Yau, H.P. Lo, and S.H.H. Fung Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong Accid. Anal. Prev. 38 6 2006 1157 1161 (Pubitemid 44465833)
93. F. Ye, and D. Lord Investigation of effects of underreporting crash data on three commonly used traffic crash severity models Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2241 2011 Transportation Research Board of the National Academies Washington, DC 51 58
94. F. Ye, and D. Lord Comparing three commonly used crash severity models on sample size requirements: multinomial logit, ordered probit and mixed logit models Anal. Methods Accid. Res. 1 2014 72 85
95. G. Zhang, K.K.W. Yau, and G. Chen Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China Accid. Anal. Prev. 59 2013 18 25
96. G. Zhang, K.K.W. Yau, and X. Gong Traffic violations in Guangdong Province of China: speeding and drunk driving Accid. Anal. Prev. 64 2014 30 40