Early warning signs in social-ecological networks

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 7, 2014, Pages

  Suweis, Samir ^a   D'Odorico, Paolo ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AMPLITUDE MODULATION; ARTICLE; COMMUNITY ECOLOGY; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; ECOSYSTEM MONITORING; NOISE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDATOR PREY INTERACTION; PREDICTION; SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL NETWORK; SOCIAL INTERACTION; SPECIES DIVERSITY; STEADY STATE; SYMBIOSIS; ECOLOGY; REPRODUCIBILITY; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ECOLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS;

EID: 84904160382     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101851     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Berkes F, Folke C, Colding J (2000) Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management Practices and Social Mechanisms for Building Resilience, Cambridge University Press.
2. May RM (1972) Will a large complex system be stable? Nature 238:413-414.
3. May RM (1973) Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
4. Walker BH, Salt D (2006) Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World, Island Press, Washington, D.C.
5. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9:311-318.
6. Scheffer M (2009) Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
7. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53-59.
8. Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, et al. (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:14308-14312.
9. Lade SJ, Tavoni A, Levin SA, Schluter M (2013) Regime shifts in a socialecological system. Theor Ecol 6(3): 359-372.
10. Carpenter SR, Cole JJ, Pace ML, Batt R, Brock WA, et al. (2011) Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332:1079-1082.
11. van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2007) Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift. Am Nat 169:738-747.
12. Dakos V, van Nes EH, D'Odorico P, Scheffer M (2012) How robust are variance and autocorrelation as early-warning signals for critical transitions? Ecology 93(2):264-271.
13. Colbaugh R, Glass K (2012) Early warning analysis for social diffusion events. Security Informatics 1:18.
14. Kuehn C, Zschaler G, Gross T (2014) Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1401.7125.
15. Lever JJ, van Nes EH, Scheffer M, Bascompte J (2014) The sudden collapse of pollinator communities. Ecology letters 17(3): 350-359.
16. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, Bascompte J, Brock W, et al. (2012). Anticipating Critical Transitions. Science 338:344.
17. Allesina S, Tang S (2012). Stability criteria for complex ecosystems. Nature 483: 205-208.
18. Suweis S, Grilli J, Maritan A (2014) Disentangling the effect of hybrid interactions and of the constant effort hypothesis on ecological community stability. Oikos 123: 525-532. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00822.x
19. Suweis S, Simini F, Banavar J, Maritan A (2013). Emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks. Nature 500:449.
20. Kaluza P, Kölzsch A, Gastner MT, Blasius B (2010) The complex network of global cargo ship movements. J R Soc Interface 7: 1093-1103.
21. Suweis S, Konar M, Dalin C, Hanasaki N, Rinaldo A, et al. (2011) Structure and controls of the global virtual water trade network. Geophys Res Lett 38.10.
22. Suweis S, Rinaldo A, Maritan A, D'Odorico P (2013)Water-controlled wealth of nations, Proc. Natnl Acad. Sci, USA, 110(11), 4230-4233.
23. Davis K, D'Odorico P, Laio F, Ridolfi L (2013). Human migration in a globalizing world PLoS ONE 8(1): e53723.
24. Strogatz SH (1994) Nonlinear dynamics and chaos with applications to physics, biology, chemistry and engineering. Perseus Books.
25. Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2006). Variance as a leading indicator of regime shift in ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 11(2):9.
26. Gardiner CW (1986) Handbook of stochastic methods. Springer, Berlin.
27. Horsthemke W, Lefever R (1984) Noise-Induced Transitions: Theory and Applications in Physics, Chemistry and Biology. Springer, Berlin.
28. Newman MEJ (2010) Networks: An Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
29. Biggs R, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2008) Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc Natnl Acad Sci USA 106:826-831.
30. Contamin R, Ellison AM (2009) Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: what do we need to know and when do we need to know it? Ecol. App. 19:799-816.
31. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, et al. (2012)Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PLOS ONE 7(7):e41010.
32. Boettiger C, Hastings A (2012) Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. J R Soc Interface 9(75): 2527-2539.
33. Kuehn C, Martens EA, Romero DM (2014) Critical transitions in social network activity. Journal of Complex Networks doi:10.1093/comnet/cnt022.