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1
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84903297316
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Note
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The emergent Global State of Shaws theory, is built on this Western conglomerate or network of state-based power, which it is argued, is increasingly global in its reach. A more complete elaboration of this idea and key underpinning terms and concepts will evolve below.
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3
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85018126390
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Obamas Second Chance on the Predominant Moral Issue of this Century
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5 April
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James Hansen, Obamas Second Chance on the Predominant Moral Issue of this Century Huffington Post, 5 April 2010. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-james-hansen/obamas-second-chance-on-c_b_525567.html.
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(2010)
Huffington Post
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Hansen, J.1
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5
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0038819346
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History and Purpose in the International Political Economy of the Environment
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Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner
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Dimitris Stevis and Valerie Assetto, History and Purpose in the International Political Economy of the Environment, in The International Political Economy of the Environment (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001): 239-256.
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(2001)
The International Political Economy of the Environment
, pp. 239-256
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Stevis, D.1
Assetto, V.2
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7
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0004162040
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The Environment in International Relations: Legacies and Contentions
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John Vogler and Mark Imber (London: Routle-dge
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John Vogler, The Environment in International Relations: Legacies and Contentions, in The Environment and International Relations, ed. John Vogler and Mark Imber (London: Routle-dge, 1996), 6.
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(1996)
The Environment and International Relations
, pp. 6
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Vogler, J.1
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84903297309
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Note
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Given existing particular preoccupations of leaders and publics, underpinned by strong national, religious and ethnic identities which consistently hamper the relatively minimal efforts of the UN system to ensure cooperation on policy areas critical to humanity, such as R2P, Security Council reform or even climate change itself, the notion of a legitimate, democratic top-down government on a global level does indeed seem some way off.
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9
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0003537607
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Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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Martin Shaw, Theory of the Global State, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 230.
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(2000)
Theory of the Global State
, pp. 230
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Shaw, M.1
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10
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84903297310
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Note
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Readers will note that a significant limitation to Shaws theory is the emphasis on the political at the expense of the economic. The interconnection between global economic forces in the form of transnational corporations and the elites that direct them on the one hand and the political leaders of state and supra-state organisations on the other is not explored. Clearly, this is important to any discussion of climate change, driven as it has been, and continues to be, by the forces of global liberalisation of trade and markets that comprise the economic globalisation emphasised by traditional globalisation theory. There is not space to consider this aspect of development in this article.
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12
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84870464968
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Environment
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Michael Goodhardt (Oxford: Oxford University Press, which the authors make this point forcefully
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John Barry and Kerri Woods, Environment, in Human Rights: Policy and Practice, ed. Michael Goodhardt (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), 327, in which the authors make this point forcefully.
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(2009)
Human Rights: Policy and Practice
, pp. 327
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Barry, J.1
Woods, K.2
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14
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84903297311
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Note
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Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF), A Nation Under Threat - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Rights and Forced Migration in Bangladesh (London: Environmental Justice Foundation, 2012).
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16
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84894255614
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Global Childrens Health and Environment Fund National Council for Science and the Environment, April
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Karim Ahmed, Environmental Protection, Public Health and Human Rights: An Integrated Assessment (Global Childrens Health and Environment Fund National Council for Science and the Environment, April 2003). http://shr.aaas.org/projects/human_rights/reports/Ahmed2003.pdf.
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(2003)
Environmental Protection, Public Health and Human Rights: An Integrated Assessment
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Ahmed, K.1
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note
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The Fifth Assessment Report will be published in 2014.
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84903297313
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Note
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The impact of developed states is relatively minor and is, for reasons of space, not considered here. Various criticisms have been levelled at the work of working group two of the AR4 on climate change impacts. Most notable was Professor J. Graham Cogley, supported by Michael Zemp from the World Glacier Monitoring Service, who raised the highly damaging issue of the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, suggesting that the IPCC got the date (2035) wrong by 300 years. While the IPCC authors denied the claims, it has subsequently distanced itself from the claim.
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20
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84903297314
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Note
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There has also been criticism regarding the proportion of the Netherlands below sea level and African crop yield projections and concern about the use of grey literature from non-peer reviewed sources.
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27
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84903297299
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There was very high confidence about this. It was also noted that coastal located industries would be vulnerable.
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30
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Beyond "Dangerous Climate Change: Emission Scenarios for a New World
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29 November
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Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows in Beyond "Dangerous Climate Change: Emission Scenarios for a New World, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 29 November 2010, 41
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(2010)
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
, pp. 41
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Anderson, K.1
Bows, A.2
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84903297300
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Note
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Authors go further, arguing that there is now little to no chance of maintaining the rise in global mean surface temperature at below 28C, despite repeated high-level statements to the contrary. Impacts associated with 28C have been revised such that it more appropriately represents the threshold between dangerous and extremely dangerous climate change.
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Munich Re, for example, the largest reinsurer in the world, has publicly stated its expectation for the near future of an exponential increase in natural disaster-related costs.
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34
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Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
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Naomi Oreskes, Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, Science 306 (5702): 1686
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Science
, vol.306
, Issue.5702
, pp. 1686
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Oreskes, N.1
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35
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84903297302
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Note
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Which the author has analysed the scientific literature on climate change. Oreskes has analysed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, concluding that there is a scientific consensus on the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Seventy-five percent of the abstracts either explicitly or implicitly accepted the consensus view; the remaining 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. None of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position. There are a few dissenting voices on climate change. Richard Lindzen of MIT and Freeman Dyson of the Institute for Advanced Study question the accuracy of IPCC projections. Others, including Tim Patterson of Carleton University and David Douglass of the University of Rochester, argue that climate change has been caused by natural processes. Robert C. Balling of Arizona State University and Judith Curry of Georgia Institute of Technology argue the cause is not yet established. A limited number of other dissenters, including Craig Idso and Patrick Michaels of Arizona State and the University of Virginia respectively, argue effects are more limited than the IPCC proposes.
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Global State
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D. Potter, D. Goldblatt, and M.Kiloh (eds., Cambridge: Polity
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Martin Shaw, Global State, 18. D. Potter, D. Goldblatt, and M.Kiloh (eds.) Democratization (Cambridge: Polity, 1996)
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(1996)
Democratization
, pp. 18
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Shaw, M.1
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84903297303
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Note
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There are four main ways in which these events are revolutionary: they are fundamental challenges to structures of authoritarian states; they are rooted in widespread popular agency; they are connected to changes in national structures and international relations; and these changes show every sign of durable impact on the forms and character of power. They are not primarily socio-economic revolutions, but represent historic political transformations. Global-democratic revolution is not simply about the form of government within any nation-state, but rather the shape of world order.
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41
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84856524207
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Whither the Weather? Climate Change and Conflict
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1
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Nils Petter Gleditsch, Whither the Weather? Climate Change and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 49 1, no. 3 (2012): 3-9
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, pp. 3-9
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Gleditsch, N.P.1
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42
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78049231367
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Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars
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Halvard Buhaug, Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 107, no. 38 (2010): 16477-82.
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(2010)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
, vol.107
, Issue.38
, pp. 16477-16482
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Buhaug, H.1
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Global Political Violence: Explaining the Post-Cold War Decline
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March 14
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Andrew Mack, Global Political Violence: Explaining the Post-Cold War Decline, Human Security Report Project Policy Papers, March 14, 2007. http://www.hsrgroup.org/
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(2007)
Human Security Report Project Policy Papers
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Mack, A.1
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From Bombs to Banners? The Decline of Wars and the Rise of Unarmed Uprisings
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Isak Svensson; Andrew Mack, From Bombs to Banners? The Decline of Wars and the Rise of Unarmed Uprisings, East Asia Security Dialogue 42, no. 3 (2011): 219-37.
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(2011)
East Asia Security Dialogue
, vol.42
, Issue.3
, pp. 219-237
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Svensson, I.1
Mack, A.2
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The forthcoming fifth assessment report working group on impacts (due after March 2014) is expected to address these issues in greater detail.
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48
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From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet
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Idean Salehyan, From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet, Journal of Peace Research 45, no. 3 (2008): 315-26.
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(2008)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.45
, Issue.3
, pp. 315-326
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Salehyan, I.1
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49
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Climate Change, Violent Conflict and Local Institutions in Kenyas Drylands
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Wario Adano, Ton Dietz, Karen Witsenburg and Fred Zaal, Climate Change, Violent Conflict and Local Institutions in Kenyas Drylands, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 65-80.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 65-80
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Adano, W.1
Dietz, T.2
Witsenburg, K.3
Zaal, F.4
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50
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Environmental Changes and Violent Conflict
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in press, quoted in Gleditsch, Whither the Weather?, 3
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Thomas Bernauer, Tobias Bohmelt and Vally Koubi, Environmental Changes and Violent Conflict, Environmental Research Letters 7 (in press), quoted in Gleditsch, Whither the Weather?, 3.
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Environmental Research Letters
, pp. 7
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Bernauer, T.1
Bohmelt, T.2
Koubi, V.3
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paper for the Department of Energy/Environmental Protection Agency workshop on Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages, Washington, DC, 27-28 January 2011
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Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole Magnus Theisen, Climate Change and Armed Conflict (paper for the Department of Energy/Environmental Protection Agency workshop on Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages, Washington, DC, 27-28 January 2011).
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Climate Change and Armed Conflict
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Buhaug, H.1
Gleditsch, N.P.2
Theisen, O.M.3
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52
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Climate Change and Conflict
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Ragnhild Nordas and Nils Petter Gleditsch, Climate Change and Conflict, Political Geography 26, no. 6 (2007): 627-638.
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(2007)
Political Geography
, vol.26
, Issue.6
, pp. 627-638
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Nordas, R.1
Gleditsch, N.P.2
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33746195625
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Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium
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David Zhang, C.Y. Jim, George C.-S. Lin, Yuan-Qing He, James J. Wang and Harry F. Lee, Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium, Climatic Change 76, no. 3-4 (2006): 459-77.
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(2006)
Climatic Change
, vol.76
, Issue.3-4
, pp. 459-477
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Zhang, D.1
Jim, C.Y.2
Lin George, C.-S.3
He, Y.-Q.4
Wang, J.J.5
Lee, H.F.6
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54
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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe Over the Last Millennium
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Richard Tol and Sebastian Wagner, Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe Over the Last Millennium, Climatic Change 99, no. 1-2 (2010): 65-79.
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(2010)
Climatic Change
, vol.99
, Issue.1-2
, pp. 65-79
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Tol, R.1
Wagner, S.2
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Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa
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Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan, Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 35-50.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 35-50
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Hendrix, C.1
Salehyan, I.2
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Does Climate Change Drive Land-Use Conflicts in the Sahel?
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Tor Benjaminsen, Koffi Alinon, Halvard Buhaug and Jill Tove Buseth, Does Climate Change Drive Land-Use Conflicts in the Sahel?, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 108.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 108
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Benjaminsen, T.1
Alinon, K.2
Buhaug, H.3
Buseth, J.T.4
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Climate Change and International Water Conflict in Central Asia
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Thomas Bernauer and Tobias Siegfried, Climate Change and International Water Conflict in Central Asia, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 227-40.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 227-240
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Bernauer, T.1
Siegfried, T.2
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Weathering Climate Change: Can Institutions Mitigate International Water Conflict?
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Jaroslav Tir and Douglas M. Stinnett, Weathering Climate Change: Can Institutions Mitigate International Water Conflict?, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 211-25.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 211-225
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Tir, J.1
Stinnett, D.M.2
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Civil War, Climate Change and Development: A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa
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Conor Devitt and Richard SJ Tol, Civil War, Climate Change and Development: A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 129-45.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 129-145
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Devitt, C.1
Tol Richard, S.J.2
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This sub-Saharan Africa scenario study found that the effects of both civil war and climate change on economic growth have been underestimated.
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Dont Blame the Weather! Climate-Related Natural Disasters and Civil Conflict
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Rune Slettebak, Dont Blame the Weather! Climate-Related Natural Disasters and Civil Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 163-76.
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(2012)
Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 163-176
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Slettebak, R.1
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Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa
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Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton, Come Rain or Shine: An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (2012): 51-64.
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Journal of Peace Research
, vol.49
, Issue.1
, pp. 51-64
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Raleigh, C.1
Kniveton, D.2
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Crisis in the Drylands
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17 January
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Jeffrey Sachs, Crisis in the Drylands, Scientific American, 17 January 2008. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=crisis-in-the-drylands
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(2008)
Scientific American
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Sachs, J.1
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66
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Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda
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Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science and the University of Toronto, June
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Valerie Percival and Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda, Occasional Paper, Project on Environment, Population and Security, (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science and the University of Toronto, June 1995). http://www.library.utoronto.ca/pcs/eps/rwanda/rwanda1.htm.
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Occasional Paper, Project On Environment, Population and Security
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Percival, V.1
Homer-Dixon, T.2
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A Climate of Conflict. The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War
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November
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Dan Smith and Janani Vivekananda, A Climate of Conflict. The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War, International Alert, November 2007, 12.
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(2007)
International Alert
, pp. 12
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Smith, D.1
Vivekananda, J.2
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Violent Climate or Climate of Violence? Concepts and Relations with Focus on Kenya and Sudan
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Jürgen Scheffran, Tobias Ide and Janpeter Schilling, Violent Climate or Climate of Violence? Concepts and Relations with Focus on Kenya and Sudan, The International Journal of Human Rights 18, no. 3 (2014): 369-90.
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The International Journal of Human Rights
, vol.18
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, pp. 369-390
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Scheffran, J.1
Ide, T.2
Schilling, J.3
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Defining Europe, Defining the West: The Balkans and Crystallisations of Power
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April
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Gregory Kent, Defining Europe, Defining the West: The Balkans and Crystallisations of Power, Crucible Centre for Human Rights Working Paper, April 2011.
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Britain and the Destruction of Bosnia (London: Penguin
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Brendan Simms, Unfinest Hour. Britain and the Destruction of Bosnia (London: Penguin, 2002).
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Unfinest Hour
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Simms, B.1
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The case of Syria appeared to be replicating this development of British and French initiative ahead of US involvement. However, at the time of writing, the British parliaments rejection of military action, followed by President Obamas focus on the elimination of Syrias chemical weapons capability - a not to be dismissed achievement however - has threatened arguably to undermine any crystallisation of Western power in an important case of asystematic human rights violation by a state on a massive scale.
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This assumption - of the continued existence and development of the global state - is based on the historical argument that war and massive human rights violation are the key impetus for the cooperation that underpins the development of the global state. Although war can be said to be in decline, it is far from eradicated. Massive human rights violation is far from a purely historical phenomenon. Climate change is another factor that ensures cooperation into the future.
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Probabilistic Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change and Emissions Pathways
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November 1
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Stephen Schneider and Michael Mastrandrea, Probabilistic Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change and Emissions Pathways, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 102, no. 44 (November 1, 2005). http://www.pnas.org_cgi_doi_10.1073_pnas.0506356102, 13-14.
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
, vol.102
, Issue.44
, pp. 13-14
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Schneider, S.1
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Oxford: Oxford University Press
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Dieter Helm, Climate Change Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), 5.
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Climate Change Policy
, pp. 5
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Helm, D.1
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New York Times, 4 September
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Indifferent to Planet Pain, New York Times, 4 September 1999
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Indifferent to Planet Pain
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Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees
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Frank Biermann and Ingrid Boas, Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees, Global Environmental Politics 10, no. 1 (2010), 60.
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Global Environmental Politics
, vol.10
, Issue.1
, pp. 60
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Biermann, F.1
Boas, I.2
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Permanent displacement of 70 million Bangladeshis is a commonly used figure.
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