Climate not to blame for African civil wars

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 107, Issue 38, 2010, Pages 16477-16482

  Buhaug, Halvard ^a  

^a PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO PRIO   (Norway)

Author keywords

Africa; Climate change; Conflict; Security

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; HEAT ACCLIMATIZATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; WAR;

EID: 78049231367     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Obama B (2009) Nobel Lecture (the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Oslo, Norway, 10 December). Available at http://nobelpeaceprize.org/en-GB/laureates/ laureates-2009/obama-lecture/. Accessed August 20, 2010.
2. CNA (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (CNA Corporation, Alexandria, VA).
3. Smith D, Vivekananda J (2007) A Climate of Conflict: The Links between Climate Change, Peace and War (International Alert, London, UK).
4. Schwartz P, Randall D (2003) An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (US Department of Defense, Washington, DC).
5. Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E (2004) Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. J Polit Econ 112:725-753.
6. Burke MB, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema JA, Lobell DB (2009) Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:20670-20674.
7. Christensen JH, et al. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Solomon S (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).
8. Spagat M, Mack A, Cooper T, Kreutz J (2009) Estimating war deaths: An arena of contestation. J Conflict Resolut 53:934-950.
9. Human Security Report (2010) The Shrinking Cost of War. Human Security Report 2009, Part II (Human Security Report Project, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada).
10. Black R (2009) Climate 'is a major cause' of conflict in Africa. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8375949.stm. Accessed August 20, 2010.
11. Gleditsch NP, Wallensteen P, Eriksson M, Sollenberg M, Strand H (2002) Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset. J Peace Res 39:615-637.
12. Fearon JD, Laitin DD (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. Am Polit Sci Rev 97:75-90.
13. Sambanis N (2004) What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition. J Conflict Resolut 48:814-858.
14. PRIO Battle Deaths Datasetv. 3.0. Available at http://www.prio.no/CSCW/ Datasets/Armed-Conflict/Battle-Deaths/. Accessed August 20, 2010.
15. Boko M, et al. (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 433-467.
16. Peluso NL, Watts M, eds (2001) Violent Environments (Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY).
17. Witsenburg KM, Adano WR (2009) Of rain and raids: Violent livestock raiding in northern Kenya. Civil Wars 11:514-538.
18. Benjaminsen TA (2008) Does supply-induced scarcity drive violent conflicts in the African Sahel? The case of the Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali. J Peace Res 45:831-848.
19. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. Available at http://gpcc.dwd.de. Accessed August 20, 2010.
20. Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia. CRU TS3 data available at http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/. Accessed August 20, 2010.
21. Beck N, Katz JN (2001) Throwing out the baby with the bath water: A comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon. Int Organ 55:487-495. (Pubitemid 33585635)
22. Buhaug H, Gleditsch NP, Theisen OM (2010) Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World, eds Mearns R, Norton A (World Bank, Washington, DC), pp 75-101.
23. Homer-Dixon T (1999) Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).
24. Ciccone A (2010) Transitory economic shocks and civil conflict. Available at http://www.antoniociccone.eu/?cat=3. Accessed August 20, 2010.
25. Jensen PS, Gleditsch KS (2009) Rain, growth and civil war: The importance of location. Defence Peace Econ 20:359-372.
26. Hendrix C, Glaser S (2007) Trends and triggers: Climate, climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Polit Geogr 26:695-715.
27. Cederman L-E, Girardin L (2007) Beyond fractionalization: Mapping ethnicity onto nationalist insurgencies. Am Polit Sci Rev 101:173-185.
28. Hegre H, Sambanis N (2006) Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. J Conflict Resolut 50:508-535.
29. Levy MA, Torkelson C, Vörösmarty C, Douglas E, Humphreys M (2006) Freshwater availability anomalies and outbreak of civil war: Results from a global spatial time series analysis. Available at http://www.allacademic.com/ one/prol/prol01/. Accessed August 20, 2010.
30. Theisen OM, Holtermann H, Buhaug H (2010) Drought, political exclusion, and civil war. Available at http://www.allacademic.com/one/prol/prol01/. Accessed August 20, 2010.
31. Zhang DD, Brecke P, Lee HF, He YQ, Zhang J (2007) Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19214-19219.
32. Tol RSJ, Wagner S (2010) Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Clim Change 99:65-79.
33. Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2008) Climate change and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. NBER Working Paper no. 14132 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA).
34. Nordhaus WD (2006) Geography and macroeconomics: New data and new findings. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:3510-3517.
35. st century temperature and heat waves. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:15555-15559.
36. Ki-moon B (2008) Climate change poses 'defining challenge' of our time, Ban says. Available at http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=28458. Accessed August 20, 2010.
37. Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis (Global Humanitarian Forum, Geneva).
38. Barnett J (2003) Security and climate change. Glob Environ Change 13:7-17.
39. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. National Adaptation Programmes of Action. Available at http://unfccc.int/national- reports/napa/items/2719.php. Accessed August 20, 2010.
40. Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).
41. Harbom L, Wallensteen P (2009) Armed conflict, 1946-2008. J Peace Res 46:577-587.
42. Cederman L-E, Wimmer A, Min B (2010) Why do ethnic groups rebel? New data and analysis. World Polit 62:87-119.
43. Gleditsch KS (2002) Expanded trade and GDP data. J Conflict Resolut 46:712-724.