Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 102, Issue 44, 2005, Pages 15728-15735

  Schneider, Stephen H ^a   Mastrandrea, Michael D ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic interference; Article 2; Integrated assessments; Risk management; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; GREENHOUSE GAS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; RISK MANAGEMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNITED NATIONS;

CLIMATE; DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PROBABILITY THEORY; RISK MANAGEMENT; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 27644449609     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0506356102     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations, New York).
2. Patwardhan, A., Schneider, S. H. & Semenov, S. M. (2003) Assessing the Science to Address UNFCCC Article 2 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva).
3. Smith, J. B., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Mirza, M. M. Q., Fankhauser, S., Leemans, R., Erda, L., Ogallo, L., Pittock, B., Richels, R., Rosenzweig, C., et al. (2001) in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. & White, K. S. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.), pp. 913-967.
4. Manne, A. S. & Richels, R. G. (1995) Energy J. 16, 1-37.
5. Hammitt, J. K., Lempert, R. J. & Schlesinger, M. E. (1992) Nature 357, 315-318.
6. Webster, M. D. (2002) Energy J. 23, 97-119.
7. Schneider, S. H. (1997) Environ. Model. Assess. 2, 229-248.
8. Morgan, M. G. & Henrion, M., eds. (1990) Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York).
9. Pittock, R. N., Jones, R. N. & Mitchell, C. D. (2001) Nature 413, 249.
10. Schneider, S. H., Turner, B. L. & Morehouse Garriga, H. (1998) J. Risk Res. 1, 165-185.
11. Watson, R. T., Albritton, D. L., Barker, T., Bashmakov, I. A., Canziani, O., Christ, R., Cubasch, U., Davidson, O., Gitay, H., Griggs, D., et al. (2001) in Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the IPCC Third Assessment Report, ed. Watson, R. T. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.), pp. 37-43.
12. Mastrandrea, M. D. & Schneider, S. H. (2004) Science 304, 571-575.
13. Moss, R. H. & Schneider, S.H. (2000) in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, eds. Pachauri, R., Taniguchi, T. & Tanaka, K. (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva), pp. 33-51.
14. Wigley, T. (2004) Clim. Change 67, 1-11.
15. Schneider, S. H., Kuntz-Duriseti, K. & Azar, C. (2000) Pac. Asian J. Energy 10, 81-106.
16. Oppenheimer, M. & Alley, R. B. (2004) Clim. Change 64, 1-10.
17. Grassl, H., Kokott, J., Kulessa, M., Luther, J., Nuscheler, F., Sauerborn, R., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Schubert, R. & Schulze, E.-D. (2003) Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond (German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin).
18. Hare, W. (2003) Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change: Contributions to the Specification of Article 2 of the UNFCCC (German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin).
19. Meinshausen, M., Hare, W., Wigley, T. M. L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J. & Swart, R. (2005) Clin. Change, in press.
20. O'Neill, B. C. & Oppenheimer, M. (2004) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101, 16411-16416.
21. Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S., Yap, K. S., Abe-Ouchi, A., et al. (2001) in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Third Assessment Report, eds. Hough ton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J. & Xiaosu, D. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.), pp. 525-582.
22. Andronova, N. G. & Schlesinger, M. E. (2001) J. Geophys. Res. 106, 22605-22612.
23. Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., Allen, M. R. & Webster, M. D. (2001) Science 295, 113-117.
24. Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., et al. (2005) Nature 433, 403-406.
25. Hare, W. & Meinshausen, M. (2005) Clim. Change, in press.
26. Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D. & Cox, P. M. (2005) Nature 435, 1187-1190.
27. Knutti, R., Joos, F., Mueller, S. A., Plattner, G. K. & Stocker, T. F. (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
28. Schneider, S. H. & Thompson, S. L. (1981) J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135-3147.
29. Nordhaus, W. D. (1994) Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
30. Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P. & Stordal, F. (1998) Geophys. Res. Let. 25, 2715-2718.
31. Wigley, T. M. L., Richels, R. & Edmonds, J. A. (1996) Nature 379, 240-243.
32. Hammitt, J. K. (1999) Clin. Change 41, 447-468.
33. Swart, R., Mitchell, J., Morita, T. & Raper, S. (2002) Global Environ. Change 12, 155-165.
34. Wigley, T. M. L. (2004) Benefits of Climate Policies: Improving Information for Policymakers (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris).
35. Mastrandrea, M. D. & Schneider, S. H. (2001) Clim. Pol. 1, 433-449.
36. Mastrandrea, M. D. & Schneider, S. H. (2005) in Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, eds. Schellnhuber, J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Yohe, G. & Wigley, T. M. L. (Met Office, Exeter, U.K.), in press.