A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness

BMC Infectious Diseases

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2014, Pages

  Halder, Nilimesh ^a   Kelso, Joel K ^a   Milne, George J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

Author keywords

Cost effectiveness; Pandemic influenza; Pre emptive vaccination; Reactive vaccination; Simulation model

Indexed keywords

ANTIVIRUS AGENT; INFLUENZA VACCINE;

2009 H1N1 INFLUENZA; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; COST OF ILLNESS; DISEASE SEVERITY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DRUG EFFICACY; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ECONOMIC EVALUATION; HEALTH CARE COST; HUMAN; INFLUENZA VACCINATION; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H5N1; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; PRODUCTIVITY; SEASONAL INFLUENZA; SIMULATION; VIRUS STRAIN; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; COST; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECONOMICS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; PANDEMICS; SOCIAL DISTANCE; STATISTICAL MODEL; THEORETICAL MODEL; VACCINATION;

ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; COSTS AND COST ANALYSIS; HUMANS; INFLUENZA VACCINES; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, ECONOMIC; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PANDEMICS; SOCIAL DISTANCE; VACCINATION;

EID: 84902000875     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14712334     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-266     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, Meltzer MI, Shay DK, Cheng PY, Bandaranayake D, Breiman RF, Brooks WA, Buchy P. Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis 2012, 12(9):687-695. 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4, 22738893.
2. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 1998, 178(1):53-60. 10.1086/515616, 9652423.
3. Glezen WP. Emerging infections: pandemic influenza. Epidemiol Rev 1996, 18(1):64-76. 10.1093/oxfordjournals.epirev.a017917, 8877331.
4. Frost W. Statistics of influenza morbidity with special reference to certain factors in case incidence and case fatality. Public Heath Rep 1920, 35:584-597.
5. Phillip C. Nature outlook: influenza. Nature 2011, 480(7376 Suppl):S1-S15.
6. Li F, Choi B, Sly T, Pak A. Finding the real case-fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza. J Epidemiol Community Health 2008, 62(6):555-559. 10.1136/jech.2007.064030, 18477756.
7. Mei Z, Lu S, Wu X, Shao L, Hui Y, Wang J, Li T, Zhang H, Wang X, Yang F, Jin J, Shang Y, Zhang W. Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections, Shanghai, China. Emerg Infect Dis 2013, doi:10.3201/eid1907.130523.
8. Yu H, Cowling BJ, Feng L, Lau EHY, Liao Q, Tsang TK, Peng Z, Wu P, Liu F, Fang VJ, Zhang H, Li M, Zeng L, Xu Z, Li Z, Luo H, Li Q, Feng Z, Cao B, Yang W, Wu JT, Wang Y, Leung GM. Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity. Lancet 2013, 382:138-145. 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61207-6, 23803487.
9. Cowling BJ, Jin L, Lau EHY, Liao Q, Wu P, Jiang H, Tsang TK, Zheng J, Fang VJ, Chang Z, Ni MY, Zhang Q, Ip DKM, Yu J, Li Y, Wang L, Tu W, Meng L, Wu JT, Luo H, Li Q, Shu Y, Li Z, Feng Z, Yang W, Wang Y, Leung GM, Yu H. Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China: a population-based study of lab-confirmed cases. Lancet 2013, 382:129-137. 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61171-X, 23803488.
10. Viboud C, Simonsen L. Timely estimates of influenza A H7N9 severity. (Commentary). Lancet 2013, 382:106-108. 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61447-6, 23803486.
11. Herfst S, Schrauwen EJA, Linster M, Chutinimitkul S, de Wit E, Munster VJ, Sorrell EM, Bestebroer TM, Burke DF, Smith DJ. Airborne transmission of influenza A/H5N1 virus between ferrets. Science 2012, 336(6088):1534-1541. 10.1126/science.1213362, 22723413.
12. Imai M, Watanabe T, Hatta M, Das SC, Ozawa M, Shinya K, Zhong G, Hanson A, Katsura H, Watanabe S. Experimental adaptation of an influenza H5 HA confers respiratory droplet transmission to a reassortant H5 HA/H1N1 virus in ferrets. Nature 2012, 420:420-428.
13. Russell CA, Fonville JM, Brown AEX, Burke DF, Smith DL, James SL, Herfst S, van Boheemen S, Linster M, Schrauwen EJ. The potential for respiratory droplet-transmissible A/H5N1 influenza virus to evolve in a mammalian host. Science 2012, 336(6088):1541-1547. 10.1126/science.1222526, 3426314, 22723414.
14. WHO Pandemic influenza vaccine manufacturing process and timeline [http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_vaccine_20090806/en/], WHO.
15. Kelso J, Halder N, Milne G. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis. BMC Infect Dis 2013, 13:81. 10.1186/1471-2334-13-81, 3637125, 23398722.
16. Andradóttir S, Chiu W, Goldsman D, Lee ML, Tsui KL, Sander B, Fisman DN, Nizam A. Reactive strategies for containing developing outbreaks of pandemic influenza. BMC Public Health 2011, 11(Suppl 1):S1.
17. Plosker GL. A/H5N1 prepandemic influenza vaccine (whole virion, vero cell-derived, inactivated). Drugs 2012, 72(11):1543-1557. 10.2165/11209650-000000000-00000, 22788239.
18. van der Velden MV, Fritz R, Pöllabauer EM, Portsmouth D, Howard MK, Kreil TR, Dvorak T, Fritsch S, Vesikari T, Diez-Domingo J, Richmond P, Lee BW, Kistner O, Ehrlich HJ, Barrett PN, Aichinger G. Safety and Immunogenicity of a Vero Cell Culture-Derived Whole-Virus H5N1 Influenza Vaccine in a Pediatric Population. J Infect Dis 2013, 1:12-23.
19. Herbinger KH, von Sonnenburg F, Nothdurft HD, Perona P, Borkowski A, Fragapane E, Nicolay U, Clemens R. A phase II study of an investigational tetravalent influenza vaccine formulation combining MF59®: adjuvanted, pre-pandemic, A/H5N1 vaccine and trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine in healthy adults. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2013, 10(1):92-99.
20. Czajka H, Unal S, Ulusoy S, Usluer G, Strus A, Sennaroglu E, Guzik J, Topeli Iskit A, Dargiewicz A, Musial D, Caylan R, Dziduch J, Eskioglu E, Hasiec B, Cwinarowiczliwa E, Belli R, Abdel-Messih IA, Beygo J, Fragapane E. A phase II, randomised clinical trial to demonstrate the non-inferiority of low-dose MF59-adjuvanted pre-pandemicA/H5N1 influenza vaccine in adult and elderly subjects. J Prev Med Hyg 2012, 53(3):136-142.
21. Vesikari T, Forstén A, Herbinger KH, Cioppa GD, Beygo J, Borkowski A, Groth N, Bennati M, von Sonnenburg F. Safety and immunogenicity of an MF59(®)-adjuvanted A/H5N1 pre-pandemic influenza vaccine in adults and the elderly. Vaccine 2012, 30(7):1388-1396. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.12.009, 22192847.
22. Leroux-Roels I, Borkowski A, Vanwolleghem T, Dramé M, Clement F, Hons E, Devaster J-M, Leroux-Roels G. Antigen sparing and cross-reactive immunity with an adjuvanted rH5N1 prototype pandemic infl uenza vaccine: a randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2007, 370:580-589. 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61297-5, 17707753.
23. Leroux-Roels I, Bernhard R, Gérard P, Dramé M, Hanon E, Leroux-Roels G. Broad clade 2 cross-reactive immunity induced by an adjuvanted clade 1 rH5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine. PLoS One 2008, 3(2):e1665. 10.1371/journal.pone.0001665, 2253495, 18301743.
24. Lin J, Zhang J, Dong X, Fang H, Chen J, Su N, Gao Q, Zhang Z, Liu Y, Wang Z, Yang M, Sun R, Li C, Lin S, Ji M, Liu Y, Wang X, Wood J, Feng Z, Wang Y, Yin W. Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated adjuvanted wholevirion influenza A (H5N1) vaccine: a phase I randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2006, 368:991-997. 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69294-5, 16980114.
25. Gasparini R, Amicizia D, Lai PL, Panatto D. Aflunov(®): a prepandemic influenza vaccine. Expert Rev Vaccines 2012, 11(2):145-157. 10.1586/erv.11.170, 22309663.
26. Fragapane E, Gasparini R, Schioppa F, Laghi-Pasini F, Montomoli E, Banzhoff A. A Heterologous MF59-Adjuvanted H5N1 Prepandemic Influenza Booster Vaccine Induces a Robust, Cross-Reactive Immune Response in Adults and the Elderly. Clin Vaccine Immunol Nov, 17(11):1817-1819.
27. Banzhoff A, Gasparini R, Laghi-Pasini F, Staniscia T, Durando P, Montomoli E, Capecchi P, di Giovanni P, Sticchi L, Gentile C, Hilbert A, Brauer V, Tilman S, Podda A. MF59-adjuvanted H5N1 vaccine induces immunologic memory and heterotypic antibody responses in non-elderly and elderly adults. PLoS One 2009, 4(2):e4384. 10.1371/journal.pone.0004384, 2634740, 19197383.
28. Milne G, Kelso J, Kelly H. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic with pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccines. J R Soc Interface 2010, 7:573-586. 10.1098/rsif.2009.0312, 2842780, 19755499.
29. Sander B, Nizam A, Garrison LP, Postma MJ, Halloran EM, Longini IM. Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. Value Health 2009, 12(2):226-233. 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00437.x, 3710126, 18671770.
30. Lee VJ, Tok MY, Chow VT, Phua KH, Ooi EE, Tambyah PA, Chen MI. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore. PLoS One 2009, 4(9):e7108. 10.1371/journal.pone.0007108, 2743808, 19771173.
31. Newall AT, Wood JG, Oudin N, MacIntyre CR. Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical -based pandemic influenza mitigation strategies. Emerg Infect Dis 2010, 16(2):224-230. 10.3201/eid1602.090571, 2957998, 20113551.
32. Baguelin M, Hoek AJ, Jit M, Flasche S, White PJ, Edmunds WJ. Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation. Vaccine 2010, 28(12):2370-2384. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.01.002, 20096762.
33. Prosser LA, Lavelle TA, Fiore AE, Bridges CB, Reed C, Jain S, Dunham KM, Meltzer MI. Cost-effectiveness of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccination in the United States. PLoS One 2011, 6(7):e22308. 10.1371/journal.pone.0022308, 3146485, 21829456.
34. Khazeni N, Hutton DW, Garber AM, Owens DK. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral prophylaxis and adjuvanted vaccination strategies for an influenza A (H5N1) pandemic. Ann Intern Med 2009, 151(12):840-853. 10.7326/0000605-200912150-00156, 3428215, 20008760.
35. Lugnér AK, van Boven M, de Vries R, Postma MJ, Wallinga J. Cost effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza in European countries: mathematical modelling analysis. BMJ 2012, 345:e4445. 10.1136/bmj.e4445, 3395306, 22791791.
36. Milne GJ, Kelso JK, Kelly HA, Huband ST, McVernon J. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PLoS One 2008, 3(12):e4005. 10.1371/journal.pone.0004005, 2602849, 19104659.
37. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G. Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. BMC Publ Health 2010, 10:168.
38. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G. Developing guidelines for school closure interventions to be used during a future influenza pandemic. BMC Infect Dis 2010, 10(1):221. 10.1186/1471-2334-10-221, 2915996, 20659348.
39. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G. Cost-effective strategies for mitigating a future influenza pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. PLoS One 2011, 6(7):e22087. 10.1371/journal.pone.0022087, 3132288, 21760957.
40. Milne GJ, Halder N, Kelso JK. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis. PLoS One 2013, 8(4):e61504. 10.1371/journal.pone.0061504, 3621766, 23585906.
41. Kelso JK, Halder N, Postma MJ, Milne GJ. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories. BMC Public Health 2013, 13:211. 10.1186/1471-2458-13-211, 3606600, 23496898.
42. Milne GJ, Kelso JK, Halder N. Lower NI efficacy may significantly reduce pandemic intervention effectiveness. BMJ Editorial 2012, 345:1.
43. Vynnycky E, Edmunds W. Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures. Epidemiol Infect 2008, 136(2):166-179. 2870798, 17445311.
44. Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Handel A, Miller MA, Simonsen L. Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine 2006, 24(44):6701-6707.
45. Longini I, Halloran M, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 2004, 159(7):623-633. 10.1093/aje/kwh092, 15033640.
46. Gani R, Hughes H, Fleming D, Griffin T, Medlock J, Leach S. Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 2005, 1(9):1355-1362.
47. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 2004, 432:904-906. 10.1038/nature03063, 15602562.
48. Mathews JD, McCaw CT, McBryde JMES, McCaw JM. A biological model for influenza transmission: pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity. PLoS One 2007, 11:1-6.
49. US Centers for Disease Control Interim pre-pandemic planning guidance: community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation in the United States. 2007, URL [http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/community/community_mitigation.pdf], US Centers for Disease Control.
50. Goodwin K, Viboud C, Simonsen L. Antibody response to influenza vaccination in the elderly: a quantitative review. Vaccine 2006, 24(8):1159-1169. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2005.08.105, 16213065.
51. Govaert TM, Sprenger MJ, Dinant GJ, Aretz K, Masurel N, Knottnerus JA. Immune response to influenza vaccination of elderly people: A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Vaccine 1994, 12(13):1185-1189. 10.1016/0264-410X(94)90241-0, 7839722.
52. Greenberg ME, Lai MH, Hartel GF, Wichems CH, Gittleson C, Bennet J, Dawson G, Hu W, Leggio C, Washington D. Response to a monovalent 2009 influenza A (H1N1) vaccine. N Engl J Med 2009, 361(25):2405-2413. 10.1056/NEJMoa0907413, 19745216.
53. Breteler JK, Tam JS, Jit M, Ket JC, De Boer MR. Efficacy and effectiveness of seasonal and pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccines in low and middle income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Vaccine 2013, 31(45):5168-5177. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.08.056, 24012574.
54. Simpson CR, Ritchie LD, Robertson C, Sheikh A, McMenamin J. Effectiveness of H1N1 vaccine for the prevention of pandemic influenza in Scotland, UK: a retrospective observational cohort study. Lancet Infect Dis 2012, 12(9):696-702. 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70133-0, 22738894.
55. Widgren K, Magnusson M, Hagstam P, Widerström M, Örtqvist T, Einemo IM, Follin P, Lindblom A, Mäkitalo S, Wik O, Österlund A, Grünewald M, Uhnoo I, Linde A. Prevailing effectiveness of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine during the 2010/11 season in Sweden. Euro Surveill 2013, 18(15):20447.
56. Mylius SD, Hagenaars TJ, Lugner AK, Wallinga J. Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing. Vaccine 2008, 26:3742-3749. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.043, 18524428.
57. Kelso JK, Halder N, Milne GJ. The impact of case diagnosis coverage and diagnosis delays on the effectiveness of antiviral strategies in mitigating pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009. PLoS One 2010, 5(11):e13797. 10.1371/journal.pone.0013797, 2972206, 21072188.
58. Fox JP, Hall CE, Cooney MK, Foy HM. Influenza virus infections in Seattle families, 1975-1979. Am J Epidemiol 1982, 116:212-227.
59. Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron A, Boelle P. A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med 2004, 23(22):3469-3487. 10.1002/sim.1912, 15505892.
60. World Health Organisation Making choices in health: WHO guide to cost-effectiveness analysis. 2003, Geneva: World Health Organization, World Health Organisation.
61. United Nation Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) statistical database (Accessed 7th Marth, 2014).
62. Perlroth DJ, Glass RJ, Davey VJ, Cannon D, Garber AM, Owens DK. Health outcomes and costs of community mitigation strategies for an influenza pandemic in the United States. Clin Infect Dis 2010, 50(2):165-174. 10.1086/649867, 20021259.
63. Wu S, Yang P, Li H, Ma C, Zhang Y, Wang Q. Influenza vaccination coverage rates among adults before and after the 2009 influenza pandemic and the reasons for non-vaccination in Beijing China: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health 2013, 13:636. 10.1186/1471-2458-13-636, 3708734, 23835253.
64. Jennings LC, Monto AS, Chan PK, Szucs TD, Nicholson KG. Stockpiling prepandemic influenza vaccines: a new cornerstone of pandemic preparedness plans. Lancet Infect Dis 2008, 8:650-658. 10.1016/S1473-3099(08)70232-9, 18922487.
65. Glass RJ, Glass LM, Beyeler WE, Min HJ. Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis 2006, 12(11):1671-1681. 10.3201/eid1211.060255, 3372334, 17283616.
66. Wu JT, Riley S, Leung GM. Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. Hong Kong Med J 2009, 15(Suppl 9):38-41.
67. Gojovic MZ, Sander B, Fisman D, Krahn MD, Bauch CT. Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009. CMAJ 2009, 181(10):673-680. 10.1503/cmaj.091641, 2774362, 19825923.
68. Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 2006, 442(7101):448-452. 10.1038/nature04795, 16642006.
69. Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005, 437(7056):209-214. 10.1038/nature04017, 16079797.