Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 281, Issue 1786, 2014, Pages

  Bradshaw, Corey J A ^a   Brook, Barry W ^a   Delean, Steven ^a   Fordham, Damien A ^a   Herrando Pérez, Salvador ^a,b   Cassey, Phillip ^a   Early, Regan ^b,c,d   Sekercioglu, Cagan H ^e,f   Araújo, Miguel B ^b,d,g  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^b MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

^e UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^f KuzeyDoga Dernegi   (Turkey)

^g IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Biogeography; Body size; Climate; Demography; Dispersal; Threatened species

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIOGEOGRAPHICAL REGION; BIRD; BODY SIZE; BREEDING POPULATION; DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY; DISPERSAL; ENDANGERED SPECIES; NATAL DISPERSAL; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; RANGE EXPANSION;

ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENT; GEOGRAPHY; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASON; UNITED KINGDOM;

ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENT; GEOGRAPHY; GREAT BRITAIN; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONS;

EID: 84900561393     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712954     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0744     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Angert AL, Crozier LG, Rissler LJ, Gilman SE, Tewksbury JJ, Chunco AJ. 2011 Do species' traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges? Ecol. Lett. 14, 677-689. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011. 01620.x)
2. Walther GR. 2004 Plants in a warmer world. Perspect. Plant. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 6, 169-185. (doi:10.1078/1433-8319-00076)
3. Araújo M, Peterson AT. 2012 Uses and misusesof bioclimatic envelope modelling. Ecology 93, 1527-1539. (doi:10.1890/11-1930.1)
4. Franklin J. 2010 Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
5. Hof C, Araújo MB, Jetz W, Rahbek C. 2011 Additivethreats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity. Nature 480, 516-519. (doi:10.1038/nature10650)
6. Fordham DA et al. 2012 Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Glob. Change Biol. 18, 1357-1371. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x)
7. Fritz SA, Bininda-Emonds ORP, Purvis A. 2009 Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics. Ecol. Lett. 12, 538-549. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248. 2009.01307.x)
8. Nogués-Bravo D. 2009 Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 18, 521-531. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238. 2009.00476.x)
9. Svenning J-C, Fløjgaard C, Marske KA, Nógues-Bravo D, Normand S. 2011 Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology. Q. Sci. Rev. 30, 2930-2947. (doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011. 06.012)
10. Warren MS et al. 2001 Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414, 65-69. (doi:10.1038/ 35102054)
11. Nathan R, Horvitz N, He Y, Kuparinen A, Schurr FM, Katul GG. 2011 Spread of North American winddispersed trees in future environments. Ecol. Lett. 14, 211-219. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010. 01573.x)
12. Devictor V et al. 2012 Differences in the climaticdebts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 121-124. (doi:10.1038/ nclimate1347)
13. Travis JMJ. 2003 Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270, 467-473. (doi:10.1098/ rspb.2002.2246)
14. Broennimann O, Thuiller W, Hughes G, Midgley GF, Alkemade JMR, Guisan A. 2006 Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change? Glob. Change Biol. 12, 1079-1093. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486. 2006.01157.x)
15. Williams PH, Araújo MB, Rasmont P. 2007 Can vulnerability among British bumblebee (Bombus) species be explained by niche position and breadth? Biol. Conserv. 138, 493-505. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon. 2007.06.001)
16. Sharrock JTR. 1976 The atlas of breeding birds of Britain and Ireland. Berkhamsted, UK: Poyser.
17. Gibbons DW, Reid JB, Chapman RA. 1993 The new atlas of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland: 1988-1991. London, UK: Poyser.
18. Sekercioglu CH, Daily GC, Ehrlich PR. 2004 Ecosystem consequences of bird declines. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 18042-18047. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.0408049101)
19. Purvis A, Gittleman JL, Cowlishaw G, Mace GM. 2000 Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 267, 1947-1952. (doi:10. 1098/rspb.2000.1234)
20. Cardillo M, Mace GM, Gittleman JL, Jones KE, Bielby J, Purvis A. 2008 The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 1441-1448. (doi:10. 1098/rspb.2008.0179)
21. Lensink R. 1997 Range expansion of raptors in Britain and the Netherlands since the 1960s: testing an individual-based diffusion model. J. Anim. Ecol. 66, 811-826. (doi:10.2307/5997)
22. Cardillo M, Huxtable JS, Bromham L. 2003 Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals. J. Evol. Biol. 16, 282-288. (doi:10.1046/j.1420-9101.2003.00513.x)
23. Tingley MW, Koo MS, Moritz C, Rush AC, Beissinger SR. 2012 The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 3279-3290. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02784.x)
24. Hanski I. 1999 Habitat connectivity, habitat continuity, and metapopulations in dynamic landscapes. Oikos 87, 209-219. (doi:10.2307/ 3546736)
25. Jetz W, Sekercioglu CH, Watson JEM. 2008 Ecological correlates and conservation implications of overestimating species geographic ranges. Conserv. Biol. 22, 110-119. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00847.x)
26. Gregory RD, Wilkinson NI, Noble DG, Robinson JA, Brown AF, Hughes J, Proctor D, Gibbons DW, Galbraith CA. 2002 The population status of birds in the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man: an analysis of conservation concern. Br. Birds 95, 410-448.
27. Araújo MB, Williams PH, Fuller RJ. 2002 Dynamics of extinction and the selection of nature reserves. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 1971-1980. (doi:10. 1098/rspb.2002.2121)
28. McGarigal K, Cushman SA, Ene E. 2012 FRAGSTATS v4: spatial pattern analysis program for categorical and continuous maps. Amherst, MA, USA. See http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
29. Kissling WD, Sekercioglu CH, Jetz W. 2012 Bird dietary guild richness across latitudes, environments and biogeographic regions. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21, 328-340. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00679.x)
30. Gaillard JM, Pontier D, Allainé D, Lebreton JD, Trouvilliez J, Clobert J. 1989 An analysis of demographic tactics in birds and mammals. Oikos 56, 59-76. (doi:10.2307/3566088)
31. del Hoyo J, Elliott A, Christie DA. 1992 - 2011 Handbook of the birds of the world 1-16. Barcelona, Spain: Lynx Press.
32. Dunning JH. 2007 CRC handbook of Avian body masses (second edition). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
33. Barbet-Massin M, Thuiller W, Jiguet F. 2012 The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 881-890. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02552.x)
34. Paradis E, Baillie SR, Sutherland WJ, Gregory RD. 1998 Patterns of natal and breeding dispersal in birds. J. Anim. Ecol. 67, 518-536. (doi:10.1046/ j.1365-2656.1998.00215.x)
35. Anderson BJ, Akçakaya HR, Araújo MB, Fordham DA, Martinez-Meyer E, Thuiller W, Brook BW. 2009 Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 1415-1420. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1681)
36. Cramp S, Simmons KEL. 1977-1994 The birds of the Western Palearctic, vol. 1-8. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
37. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M. 2004 A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Norwich, UK: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
38. Crick HQP. 2004 The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis 146(SUPPL. 1), 48-56. (doi:10.1111/j. 1474-919X.2004.00327.x)
39. Lennon JJ, Greenwood JJD, Turner JRG. 2000 Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain: a test of the species-energy hypothesis. J. Anim. Ecol. 69, 581-598. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2000.00418.x)
40. Cardillo M, Mace GM, Jones KE, Bielby J, Bininda Emonds ORP, Sechrest W, Orme CDL, Purvis A. 2005 Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species. Science 309, 1239-1241. (doi:10. 1126/science.1116030)
41. Duncan RP, Bomford M, Forsyth DM, Conibear L. 2001 High predictability in introduction outcomes and the geographical range size of introduced Australian birds: a role for climate. J. Anim. Ecol. 70, 621-632. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2001.00517.x)
42. Felsenstein J. 1985 Phylogenies and the comparative method. Am. Nat. 125, 1-15. (doi:10. 1086/284325)
43. Ives AR, Garland T. 2010 Phylogenetic logistic regression for binary dependent variables. Syst. Biol. 59, 9-26. (doi:10.1093/sysbio/syp074)
44. Orme D, Freckleton R, Thomas G, Petzoldt T, Fritz S, Isaac N, Pearse W. 2012 Caper: comparative analyses of phylogenetics and evolution in R. R package version 0.5. See http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caper.
45. R Development Core Team. 2013 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. See http://www.R-project.org
46. Thomas GH. 2008 Phylogenetic distributions of British birds of conservation concern. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 2077-2083. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0549)
47. Felsenstein J. 1973 Maximum likelihood and minimum-steps methods for estimating evolutionary trees from data on discrete characters. Syst. Biol. 22, 240-249. (doi:10.1093/sysbio/22.3.240)
48. Hansen TF, Martins EP. 1996 Translating between microevolutionary process and macroevolutionary patterns: the correlation structure of interspecific data. Evolution 50, 1404-1417. (doi:10.2307/ 2F2410878)
49. Pagel M. 1999 Inferring the historical patterns of biological evolution. Nature 401, 877-884. (doi:10. 1038/44766)
50. Burnham KP, Anderson DR. 2002 Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical informationtheoretic approach, 2nd edn. New York, NY: Springer.
51. Bradshaw CJA et al. 2012 Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo. J. Appl. Ecol. 49, 268-277. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02081.x)
52. Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson Delmotte V, Codron F. 2010 Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L20704. (doi:10.1029/2010GL044613)
53. Thomas CD, Lennon JJ. 1999 Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature 399, 213-213. (doi:10. 1038/20335)
54. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD. 2005 Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308, 1912-1915. (doi:10.1126/science. 1111322)
55. Sodhi NS, Brook BW, Bradshaw CJA. 2009 Causes and consequences of species extinctions. In The Princeton guide to ecology (ed. SA Levin), pp. 514-520. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
56. Thomas CD, Bodsworth EJ, Wilson RJ, Simmons AD, Davies ZG, Musche M, Conradt L. 2001 Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature 411, 577-581. (doi:10.1038/ 35079066)
57. Duckworth RA, Badyaev AV. 2007 Coupling of dispersal and aggression facilitates the rapid range expansion of a passerine bird. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 15017-15022. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0706174104)
58. Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, Rampley GJ, Neilson ET, Carroll AL, Ebata T, Safranyik L. 2008 Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452, 987-990. (doi:10. 1038/nature06777)
59. Stoate C, Báldi A, Beja P, Boatman ND, Herzon I, van Doorn A, de Snoo GR, Rakosy L, Ramwell C. 2009 Ecological impacts of early 21st century agricultural change in Europe: a review. J. Environ. Manag. 91, 22-46. (doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.07.005)
60. MacDonald D, Crabtree JR, Wiesinger G, Dax T, Stamou N, Fleury P, Gutierrez Lazpita J, Gibon A. 2000 Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: environmental consequences and policy response. J. Environ. Manag. 59, 47-69. (doi:10. 1006/jema.1999.0335)
61. Caughley G. 1994 Directions in conservation biology. J. Anim. Ecol. 63, 215-244. (doi:10.2307/5542)
62. Traill LW, Brook BW, Frankham R, Bradshaw CJA. 2010 Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world. Biol. Conserv. 143, 28-34. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2009.09.001)
63. Frankham R. 2005 Genetics and extinction. Biol. Conserv. 126, 131-140. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2005. 05.002)
64. Gilbert-Norton L, Wilson R, Stevens JR, Beard KH. 2010 A meta-analytic review of corridor effectiveness. Conserv. Biol. 24, 660-668. (doi:10. 1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01450.x)
65. Caughley G, Grice D, Barker R, Brown B. 1988 The edge of the range. J. Anim. Ecol. 57, 771-785. (doi:10.2307/5092)
66. Lawton JH. 1993 Range, population abundance and conservation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 8, 409-413. (doi:10. 1016/0169-5347(93)90043-o)
67. Tilman D, May RM, Lehman CL, Nowak MA. 1994 Habitat destruction and the extinction debt. Nature 371, 65-66. (doi:10.1038/371065a0)
68. Berec L, Angulo E, Courchamp F. 2007 Multiple Allee effects and population management. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 185-191. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006. 12.002)
69. Sekercioglu CH. 2007 Area trumps mobility in fragment bird extinctions. Curr. Biol. 17, R283-R286. (doi:10.1016/j.cub.2007.02.019)
70. Kotiaho JS, Kaitala V, Komonen A, Päivinen J. 2005 Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 1963-1967. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0406718102)