How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 41, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2606-2613

  Siler, Nicholas ^a   Roe, Gerard ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; orographic precipitation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); THERMODYNAMICS;

EXTREME PRECIPITATION; KEYPOINTS; LOW TEMPERATURES; MOUNTAIN RANGES; OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION; SURFACE WARMING; THERMODYNAMIC CONSTRAINTS; TOTAL PRECIPITATION;

CONDENSATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONDENSATION; EVAPORATION; LOW TEMPERATURE; MOUNTAIN REGION; NUMERICAL MODEL; OROGRAPHY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SURFACE TEMPERATURE; THERMODYNAMICS;

EID: 84897209642     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059095     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Beniston, M., (2005), Mountain climates and climatic change: An overview of processes focusing on the European Alps, Pure Appl. Geophys., 162 (8-9), 1587-1606, doi: 10.1007/s00024-005-2684-9.
2. Bougeault, P., P. Binder, A. Buzzi, R. Dirks, J. Kuettner, R. Houze, R.-B. Smith, R. Steinacker, and, H. Volkert, (2001), The MAP special observing period, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82 (3), 433-462, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(2001) 082<0433:TMSOP>2.3.CO;2.
3. Cotton, W.-R., G. Bryan, and, S.-C. van-den Heever, (2010), Storm and Cloud Dynamics, 820 -pp., Academic Press, San Diego, Calif.
4. Dettinger, M., (2011), Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California-A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47 (3), 514-523, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00546. x.
5. Dettinger, M.-D., F.-M. Ralph, T. Das, P.-J. Neiman, and, D.-R. Cayan, (2011), Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California, Water, 3 (4), 445-478, doi: 10.3390/w3020445.
6. Diffenbaugh, N.-S., J.-S. Pal, R.-J. Trapp, and, F. Giorgi, (2005), Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 102 (44), 15,774-15,778, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0506042102.
7. Durran, D.-R., and, J.-B. Klemp, (1982), On the effects of moisture on the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, J. Atmos. Sci., 39 (10), 2152-2158, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<2152:OTEOMO>2.0.CO;2.
8. Emanuel, K., (1994), Atmospheric Convection, 580 -pp., Oxford Univ. Press, New York.
9. Gregory, D., (1995), A consistent treatment of the evaporation of rain and snow for use in large-scale models, Mon. Weather Rev., 123 (9), 2716-2732, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2716:ACTOTE>2.0.CO;2.
10. Guan, B., N.-P. Molotch, D.-E. Waliser, E.-J. Fetzer, and, P.-J. Neiman, (2010), Extreme snowfall events linked to atmospheric rivers and surface air temperature via satellite measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20401, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044696.
11. Hewitt, C.-D., (2004), Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts, Eos. Trans. AGU, 85 (52), 566, doi: 10.1029/2004EO520005.
12. Houze, R.-A., (2012), Orographic effects on precipitating clouds, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG1001, doi: 10.1029/2011RG000365.
13. Kessler, E., (1969), On the Distribution and Continuity of Water Substance in Atmospheric Circulation, Meteorol. Monogr., vol.- 10, 84 pp., Am. Meteorol. Soc., Boston, Mass.
14. Kirshbaum, D.-J., and, R.-B. Smith, (2008), Temperature and moist-stability effects on midlatitude orographic precipitation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134 (634), 1183-1199, doi: 10.1002/qj.274.
15. Klemp, J.-B., and, D.-R. Lilly, (1975), The dynamics of wave-induced downslope winds, J. Atmos. Sci., 32 (2), 320-339, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1975) 032<0320:TDOWID>2.0.CO;2.
16. Kunz, M., and, C. Kottmeier, (2006), Orographic enhancement of precipitation over low mountain ranges. Part I: Model formulation and idealized simulations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 45 (8), 1025-1040, doi: 10.1175/JAM2389.1.
17. Leung, L.-R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.-M. Washington, J. Han, and, J.-O. Roads, (2004), Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States, Clim. Change, 62 (1- 3), 75-113, doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013692.50640.55.
18. Liu, J.-Y., and, H.-D. Orville, (1969), Numerical modeling of precipitation and cloud shadow effects on mountain-induced cumuli, J. Atmos. Sci., 26 (6), 1283-1298, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<1283:NMOPAC>2.0. CO;2.
19. Mearns, L.-O., W. Gutowski, R. Jones, R. Leung, S. McGinnis, A. Nunes, and, Y. Qian, (2009), A regional climate change assessment program for North America, Eos. Trans. AGU, 90 (36), 311-311, doi: 10.1029/2009EO360002.
20. Muller, C.-J., P.-A. O'Gorman, and, L.-E. Back, (2011), Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model, J. Climate, 24 (11), 2784-2800, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3876.1.
21. Neiman, P.-J., L.-J. Schick, F.-M. Ralph, M. Hughes, and, G.-a. Wick, (2011), Flooding in western Washington: The connection to atmospheric rivers, J. Hydrometeor., 12 (6), 1337-1358, doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1358.1.
22. Newell, R.-E., N.-E. Newell, Y. Zhu, and, C. Scott, (1992), Tropospheric rivers?-A pilot study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19 (24), 2401-2404.
23. O'Gorman, P.-A., and, T. Schneider, (2009), The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 14,773-14,777 (35), doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907610106.
24. Pavelsky, T.-M., S. Sobolowski, S.-B. Kapnick, and, J.-B. Barnes, (2012), Changes in orographic precipitation patterns caused by a shift from snow to rain, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18706, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052741.
25. Ralph, F.-M., P.-J. Neiman, and, R. Rotunno, (2005), Dropsonde observations in low-level jets over the northeastern Pacific Ocean from CALJET-1998 and PACJET-2001: Mean vertical profile and atmospheric-river characteristics, Mon. Weather Rev., 133 (4), 889-910, doi: 10.1175/MWR2896.1.
26. 2, J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00460.1.
27. Siler, N., G. Roe, and, D. Durran, (2013), On the dynamical causes of variability in the rain-shadow effect: A case study of the Washington Cascades, J. Hydrometeor., 14 (1), 122-139, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-12-045.1.
28. Smith, R.-B., (1979), The influence of mountains on the atmosphere, Adv. Geophys., 21, 87-230.
29. Smith, R.-B., and, I. Barstad, (2004), A linear theory of orographic precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci., 61 (12), 1377-1391, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004) 061<1377:ALTOOP>2.0.CO;2.
30. Trenberth, K., (1999), Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change, Clim. Change, 42 (1), 327-339, doi: 10.1023/a:1005488920935.
31. Underwood, S.-J., M.-L. Kaplan, and, K.-C. King, (2009), The role of upstream midtropospheric circulations in the Sierra Nevada enabling leeside (spillover) precipitation. Part 1. A synoptic-scale analysis of spillover precipitation and flooding in a leeside basin, J. Hydrometeor., 10 (6), 1309-1326, doi: 10.1175/2009JHM1105.1.
32. Wehner, M.-F., (2013), Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: Model performance and projections, Clim. Dynamics, 40 (1- 2), 59-80, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1393-1.