Evaluation of tropical cyclones in the canadian global modeling system: Sensitivity to moist process parameterization

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 142, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1197-1220

  Zadra, A ^a   Mctaggart Cowan, R ^a   Vaillancourt, P A ^a   Roch, M ^a   Belair S ^a   Leduc, A M ^a  

^a ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS; CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION; FALSE ALARM RATIO; PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; TRIGGER FUNCTIONS; VELOCITY VARIATIONS; VERTICAL VELOCITY;

FORECASTING; HURRICANES; NATURAL CONVECTION; STABILITY CRITERIA; STORMS; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS;

ERRORS;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); TROPICAL CYCLONE;

CANADA;

EID: 84896783364     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00124.1     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147-1167.
2. Bélair, S., J. Mailhot, J. W. Strapp, and J. I. MacPherson, 1999: An examination of local versus nonlocal aspects of a TKE-based boundary layer scheme in clear convective conditions. J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 1499-1518.
3. Bélair, S., L.-P. Crevier, J. Mailhot, B. Bilodeau, and Y. Delage, 2003a: Operational implementation of the ISBA land surface scheme in the Canadian regional weather forecast model. Part I:Warm season results. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 352-370.
4. Bélair, S., R. Brown, J. Mailhot, B. Bilodeau, and L.-P. Crevier, 2003b: Operational implementation of the ISBA land surface scheme in the Canadian regional weather forecast model. Part II: Cold season results. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 371-386.
5. Bélair, S., J. Mailhot, C. Girard, and P. Vaillancourt, 2005: Boundary layer and shallow cumulus clouds in a medium-range forecast of a large-scale weather system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1938-1960.
6. Bélair, S., and Coauthors, 2007: Operational implementation of a 33-km version of GEM for global medium-range weather prediction at CMC. Can. Meteor. Oceanogr. Soc. Bull., 35 (3), 77-84.
7. Bélanger, J. I., P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, and M. T. Jelinek, 2012: Extended prediction of north Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 757-769.
8. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1997: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2662-2682.
9. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 52, 233-240.
10. Bougeault, P., and P. Lacarrère, 1989: Parameterization of orography-induced turbulence in a mesobeta-scale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1872-1890.
11. Camargo, S. J., K. Emanuel, and A. Sobel, 2006: Genesis potential index and ENSO in reanalyses and AGCMs. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 15C.2. [Available online at https:// ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/108038.pdf.]
12. Camargo, S. J., K. Emanuel, and A. Sobel, 2007a: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.
13. Camargo, S. J., A. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. Emanuel, 2007b: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus, 59A, 428-443.
14. Candille, G., C. Cote, P. L. Houtekamer, and G. Pellerin, 2007: Verification of an ensemble prediction system against observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2688-2699.
15. Caron, L.-P., C. Jones, and K. Winger, 2011: Impact of resolution and downscaling technique in simulating recent Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Climate Dyn., 37, 869-892.
16. Caron, L.-P., C. Jones, P. Vaillancourt, and K. Winger, 2013: On the relationship between cloud-radiation interaction, atmospheric stability and Atlantic tropical cyclones in a variable-resolution climate model. Climate Dyn., 40, 1257-1269.
17. CG-FV, 2012: Final Report on the 3rd Meeting of the CGFV. Coordination Group on Forecast Verification, Commission for Basic Systems, World Meteorological Organization, 32 pp. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/CG-FV_Final-Report_May2012.pdf.]
18. Charron, M., and Coauthors, 2012: The stratospheric extension of the Canadian global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and its impact on tropospheric forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1924-1944.
19. CMC, 2011: Improvements to the deterministic prediction systems (Strato2A - GDPS 2.1.0), version 1.2. Canadian Meteorological Centre, 37 pp. [Available online at http://collaboration. cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/product_guide/docs/lib/op_systems/doc_opchanges/technote_gdps_strato2a_e_20110714.pdf.]
20. Côté, J., S. Gravel, A. Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth, 1998a: The operational CMC-MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: Design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1373-1395.
21. Côté, J., J.-G. Desmarais, S. Gravel, A.Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth 1998b: The operational CMC-MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part II: Results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1397-1418.
22. Emanuel, K., 1991: The theory of hurricanes. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 23, 179-196.
23. Emanuel, K., 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969-3976.
24. Emanuel, K., and D. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10A.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75463.pdf.]
25. Gauthier, P., M. Tanguay, S. Laroche, S. Pellerin, and J. Morneau, 2007: Extension of 3DVAR to 4DVAR: Implementation of 4DVAR at the Meteorological Service of Canada. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2339-2354.
26. Goldenberg, S. B., and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
27. Hartmann, D. L., H. H. Hendon, and R. A. Houze Jr., 1984: Some implications of the mesoscale circulations in tropical cloud clusters for large-scale dynamics and climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 113-121.
28. Hendricks, E. A., M. T. Montgomery, and C. A. Davis, 2004: The role of "vortical" hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diana (1984). J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1209-1232.
29. Hines, C. O., 1997a: Doppler-spread parameterization of gravitywave momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere. Part 1: Basic formulation. J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 59, 371-386.
30. Hines, C. O., 1997b: Doppler-spread parameterization of gravity-wave momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere. Part 2: Broad and quasi monochromatic spectra, and implementation. J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 59, 387-400.
31. Japan Meteorological Agency, cited 2011: Report presented at the 27th session of the Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE). [Available online at http://www.ral.ucar. edu/jnt/events/wgne27/index.php.]
32. Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170-181.
33. Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784-2802.
34. Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165-170.
35. Knapp, K. R., and M. C. Kruk, 2010: Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best-track speed estimates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1459-1473.
36. Landsea, C., S. Feuer, A. Hagen, D. A. Glenn, N. T. Anderson, J. Sims,R. Perez, andM. Chenoweth, 2004: TheAtlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, R. J. Murname and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 177-221.
37. Li, C., X. Jia, J. Ling, W. Zhou, and C. Zhang, 2009: Sensitivity of MJO simulations to diabatic heating profiles. Climate Dyn., 32, 167-187, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0455-x.
38. Li, J., and H. W. Barker, 2005: A radiation algorithm with correlated-k distribution. Part I: Local thermal equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 286-309.
39. Lott, F., and M. J. Miller, 1997: A new subgrid-scale orographic drag parametrization: Its formulation and testing. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 101-127.
40. Mailhot, J., and Coauthors, 2006: The 15-km version of the Canadian regional forecast system. Atmos.-Ocean, 44, 133-149.
41. McFarlane, N. A., 1987: The effect of orographically excited gravity-wave drag on the circulation of the lower stratosphere and troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1775-1800.
42. Montgomery,M. T.,M. E. Nicholls, T.A.Cram, andA. B. Saunders, 2006: A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 355-386.
43. Noilhan, J., and S. Planton, 1989: A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 536-549.
44. Pudykiewicz, J., R. Benoit, and J. Mailhot, 1992: Inclusion and verification of a predictive cloud water scheme in a regional weather prediction model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 612-626.
45. Ritchie, E. A., and G. J. Holland, 1993: On the interaction of tropical cyclone scale vortices: II. Interacting vortex patches. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 1363-1397.
46. Ritchie, E. A., and G. J. Holland, 1997: Scale interactions during the formation of Typhoon Irving. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1377-1396.
47. Rodwell, M. J., and T. N. Palmer, 2007: Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 129-146.
48. Schumacher, C., R. A. Houze Jr., and I.Kraucunas, 2004: The tropical dynamical response to latent heating estimates derived from the TRMM Precipitation Radar. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1341-1358.
49. Sundqvist, H., 1978: A parametrization scheme for non-convective condensation including prediction of cloud-water content. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 677-690.
50. WMO, 2012: Observing stations and WMO catalogue of radiosondes. World Meteorological Organization Publ. 9, 593 pp. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/ois/volume-a/vola-home.htm.]
51. Wu, Z., 2003: A shallow CISK, deep equilibrium mechanism for the interaction between large-scale convection and large-scale circulations in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 377-392.
52. Zadra, A., M. Roch, S. Laroche, and M. Charron, 2003: The subgridscale orographic blocking parametrization of the GEM model. Atmos.-Ocean, 41, 155-170.