An avian influenza model and its fit to human avian influenza cases

Advances in Disease Epidemiology

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages 1-30

  Lucchetti, Joseph ^a   Roy, Manojit ^a   Martcheva, Maia ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Avian influenza; Competitive coexistence exclusion; Data fitting; High pathogenic avian influenza; Human cases; Low pathogenic avian influenza; Strains

Indexed keywords

EID: 84895235290     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (62)

1. D. J. Alexander, An overview of the epidemiology of avian influenza, Vaccine, 25 (2007), 5637-5644.
2. R. Webster, W. Bean, O. Gorman, T. Chambers, Y. Kawaoka, Evolution and ecology of infuenza A viruses. Microbiol. Rev. 56, (1992), p. 152-179.
3. L. Clark, J. Hall, Avian influenza in wild birds: status as reservoirs, and risks to humans and agriculture. Ornithol Monogr. 60, (2006), p. 3-29.
4. W.B. Becker, The isolation and classification of Tern virus: Influenza A-Tern South Africa-1961, J. Hyg. 64 (1966), p. 309-320.
5. C. Feare, The role of wild birds in the spread of HPAI H5N1. Avian Dis. 51 (2007), p. 440-447.
6. An early detection system for HPAI in wild migratory birds, http://www.doi.gov/issues/birdflu strategicplan.pdf
7. T. Horimoto, Y. Kawaoka, Pandemic threat posed by avian influenza A viruses. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 14 (2001), p. 129-149.
8. World Health Organization, http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian influenza/country/ cases table 2008 09 10/en/index.html
9. S. Olsen, K. Ungchusak, L. Sovann, et al., Family clustering of avian influenza A (H5N1). Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11 (2005), p. 1799-1801.
10. K. Ungchusak, P. Auewarakul, S. Dowell, et al., Probable person-to-person transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1). N. Engl. J. Med. 352 (2005), p. 333-340.
11. WHO Avian Influenza - situation in Indonesia - update 16, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006 05 31/en/.
12. M. Boven, M. Koopmans, M. Holle, et al., Detecting emerging transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households. PLoS Comp. Biol. 3 (2007), p. 1394- 1402.
13. Y. Yang, E. Halloran, J. Sugimoto, I. Longini, Detecting human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1). Emerg Infect. Dis. 13 (2007), p. 1348-1353.
14. H.Wang, Z. Feng, Y. Shu, et al., Probable limited person-to-person transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in China. Lancet 371 (2008), p. 1427-1434.
15. J. Beigel, J. Farrar, A. Han, et al., Avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in humans. N. Eng. J. Med. 353 (2005), p. 1374-1385.
16. J. Peiris, et al., Avian influenza virus (H5N1): a threat to human health. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 20 (2007), p. 243-267.
17. J. Liu, H. Xiao, F. Lei, et al., Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus infection in migratory birds. Science 309 (2005), p. 1206.
18. M. Gilbert, X. Xiao, J. Domenech, J. Lubroth, V. Martin, J. Slingenbergh, Anatidae migration in the Western Palearctic and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 12 (2006), p. 1650-1656.
19. A. Kilpatrick, A. Chmura, D. Gibbons, R. Fleischer, P. Marra, P. Daszak, Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (2006), p. 19368-19373.
20. A. Peterson, B. Benz, M. Papes, Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza: entry pathways into North America via bird migration. PLoS One 2 (2007), p. 1-6.
21. H. Chen, G. Smith, S. Zhang, et al., Avian flu: H5N1 virus outbreak in migratory waterfowl. Nature 436 (2005), p. 191-192.
22. H. Chen, K. Li, J. Wang, et al., Estblishment of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza virus in Asia: implications for pandemic control. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (2006), p. 2845-2850.
23. D. Lvov, M. Schelkanov, P. Deriabin, et al., Isolation of influenza A/H5N1 virus strains from poultry and wild birds in west Sibaria during epizooty (July 2005) and their depositing to the state collection of viruses (August 2005). Vopr. Virusol. 51 (2006), p. 11-14.
24. C. Feare, M. Yasúe, Asymptomatic infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in wild birds: how sound is the evidence? Virology J. 3 (2006), p. 1-4.
25. T. Weber, N. Stilianakis, Ecologic immunology of avian influenza (H5N1) in migratory birds. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13 (2007), p. 1139-1145.
26. A. Koehler, J. Pearce, P. Flint, C. Franson, H. Ip, Genetic evidence of intercontinental movement of avian influenza in a migratory bird: the northern pintain (Anas acuta). Mol. Ecol. 17 (2008), p. 4754-4762.
27. E. Class, et al., Human influenza A H5N1 virus related to a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. Lancet 351 (1998), p. 472-477.
28. R. Fouchier, P. Schneeberger, F. Rozendaal, et al., Avian influenza A virus (H7N7) associated with human conjunctivitis and a fatal case of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101 (2004), p. 1356-1361.
29. L.MacKellar, Pandemic influenza: a review. Pop. Devel. Rev. 33 (2007), p. 429-451.
30. N. Liem,W. Lim, Lack of H5N1 avian influenza transmission to hospital employees, Hanoi, 2005. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11 (2005), p. 210-215.
31. M. Du Ry van Beest Holle, A.Meijer,M. Koopmans, C. de Jager, Human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A/H7N7, The Netherlands, 2003. Eur. Surveill. 10 (2005), p. 264-268.
32. D. Butler, Family tragedy spotlights flu mutations. Nature 442 (2006), p. 114-115.
33. WHO Successful strategies in controlling avian influenza. http://www.who.int /foodsafety/ fs management/No 04 AvianInfluenza Aug06 en.pdf.
34. A. Stegeman, A. Bouma, A. Elbers, M. de Jong, et al. The avian influenza (H7N7) epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. Course of the epidemic and effectiveness of control measures. J. Infect. Dis. 190 (2004), p. 2088-2095.
35. T. Ellis, et al., Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission. Avian Pathol. 33 (2004), p. 405-412.
36. I. Capua, S. Marangon, Vaccination policy applied for the control of avian influenza in Italy. Dev. Biol. 114 (2003), p. 213-219.
37. C. Villarreal-Chavez, E. Rivera-Cruz, An update on avian influenza in Mexico. Avian Dis. 47 (2003), p. 1002-1005.
38. D. Suarez, et al., Recombination resulting in virulence shift in avian influenza outbreak, Chile. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 10 (2004), p. 693-699.
39. S. Weber, et al., Molecular analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of subtype H5N1 isolated from wild birds and mammals in northern Germany. J. Gen. Virol. 88 (2007), p. 554-558.
40. M. Ducatez, et al., Molecular and antigenic evolution and geographical spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in western Africa. J. Gen. Virol. 88 (2007), p. 2297-2306.
41. G. Smith, et al., Emergence and predominance of an H5N1 influenza variant in China. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (2006), p. 16936-16941.
42. A. Lang, A. Kelly, J. Runstadler, Prevalence and diversity of avian influenza viruses in environmental reservoirs. J. Gen. Virol. 89 (2008), p. 509-519.
43. Y. Uchida, M. Mase, K. Yoneda, et al., Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) isolated from whooper swans, Japan. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 14 (2008), p. 1427- 1429.
44. J. Tracey, et al., The role of wild birds in the transmission of avian influenza for Australia: an ecological perspective. Emu 104 (2004), p. 109-124.
45. D. Hulse-Post, et al., Role of domestic ducks in the propagation and biological evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses in Asia. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 102 (2005), p. 10682-10687.
46. J. Brown, D. Stallknecht, J. Beck, D. Suarez, D. Swayne, Susceptibility of North American ducks and gulls to H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Emerg. Infec. Dis. 12 (2006), p. 1663-1670.
47. D. Kalthoff, A. Breithaupt, J. Teifke, et al., Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) in experimentally infected adult mute swans. Emerg. Infec. Dis. 14 (2008), p. 1267-1270.
48. J. Keawcharoen, D. van Riel, G. van Amerongen, et al. Wild ducks as long-distance vectors of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1). Emerg. Infec. Dis. 14 (2008), p. 600-607.
49. O. Gorman, et al., Evolution of influenza A virus nucleoprotein genes: implications for the origins of H1N1 human and classical swine viruses. J. Virol. 65 (1991), p. 3704-3714.
50. R. Chen, E. Holmes, Avian influenza virus exhibits rapid evolutionary dynamics. Mol. Biol. Evol. 23 (2006), p. 2336-2341.
51. M. Gilbert, et al., Free-grazing ducks and highly pathogenic avian influenza, Thailand. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 12 (2006), p. 227-234.
52. N. Kung, et al., Risk for infection with highly pathogenic influenza A virus (H5N1) in chickens, Hong Kong, 2002. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13 (2007), p. 412-418.
53. T. Germann, et al., Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (2006), p. 5935-5940.
54. I. Longini, et al., Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Sci. Express 309 (2005), p. 1083-1087.
55. C. Mills, et al., Pandemic influenza: risk of multiple introductions and the need to prepare for them. Public Libr. Sci. Med. 3 (2006), p. e135.
56. D. Rao, et al., Modeling and analysis of global epidemiology of avian influenza. Environ. Model. Software 24 (2009), p. 124-134.
57. S. Iwami, Y. Takeuchi, X. Liu, Avian-human influenza epidemic model. Math. Biosci. 207 (2007), p. 1-25.
58. S. Iwami, et al., Prevention of avian influenza epidemic: what policy should we choose? J. Theor. Biol. 252 (2008), p. 732-741.
59. An early detection system for highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in wild migratory birds U.S. interagency strategic plan (2006). http://www.usda.gov/documents/wildbirdstrategicplanpdf.pdf
60. T. Day, J. Andŕe, A. Park, The evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 273 (2006), p. 2945-2953.
61. B. Olsen, V. J. Munster, A. Wallensten, J. Waldenstram, A. D.M.E. Osterhaus, R. A.M. Fouchier, Global patterns of influenza A virus in wild birds, Science 312 (2006), p. 384-388.
62. G. Chowell, H. Nishiura, Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza, Physics of Life Reviews 5 (2008), p. 50-77.