Predicting asthma in preschool children at high risk presenting in primary care: Development of a clinical asthma prediction score

Primary Care Respiratory Journal

Volumn 23, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 52-59

  van der Mark, Lonneke B ^a   van Wonderen, Karina E ^a   Mohrs, Jacob ^a   van Aalderen, Wim M C ^b   ter Riet, Gerben ^a   Bindels, Patrick J E ^c  

^a ACADEMIC MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

^b EMMA CHILDREN S HOSPITAL   (Netherlands)

^c ERASMUS MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Asthma; Clinical studies; Diagnosis; Prediction; Preschool children; Sensitivity and specificity; Wheeze

Indexed keywords

ANTIASTHMATIC AGENT; IMMUNOGLOBULIN E; METHACHOLINE;

AGE; ARTICLE; ASTHMA; ASTHMA PREDICTION SCORE; BRONCHUS HYPERREACTIVITY; CHILD; COHORT ANALYSIS; COUGHING; DRUG USE; DUTCH; DYSPNEA; ETHNICITY; FAMILY HISTORY; FEMALE; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; IMMUNOGLOBULIN BLOOD LEVEL; MALE; NETHERLANDS; NORMAL HUMAN; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PREVALENCE; PRIMARY HEALTH CARE; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; QUESTIONNAIRE; SCORING SYSTEM; SCREENING; SLEEP DISORDER; SPIROMETRY; WHEEZING; FORECASTING; INFANT; RISK FACTOR;

ASTHMA; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; INFANT; MALE; PRIMARY HEALTH CARE; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK FACTORS;

EID: 84895108763     PISSN: 14714418     EISSN: 14751534     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4104/pcrj.2014.00003     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Bisgaard H, Hermansen MN, Loland L, Halkjaer LB, Buchvald F. Intermittent inhaled corticosteroids in infants with episodic wheezing. N Engl J Med 2006;354(19):1998-2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa054692
2. Guilbert TW, Morgan WJ, Zeiger RS, et al. Long-term inhaled corticosteroids in preschool children at high risk for asthma. N Engl J Med 2006;354(19):1985-97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa051378
3. Kent DM, Hayward RA. Limitations of applying summary results of clinical trials to individual patients: the need for risk stratification. JAMA 2007;298(10):1209-12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.298.10.1209
4. van Wonderen KE, van der Mark LB, Mohrs J, et al. Prediction and treatment of asthma in preschool children at risk: study design and baseline data of a prospective cohort study in general practice (ARCADE). BMC Pulm Med 2009;9:13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2466-9-13
5. Guilbert TW. Identifying and managing the infant and toddler at risk for asthma. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2010;126(2):417-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2010.06.024
6. Bossuyt PMM, McCaffery K. Additional patient outcomes and pathways in evaluations of testing. Med Decis Making 2009;29:E30-8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989X09347013
7. Toelle BG, Ng KK, Crisafulli D, et al. Eight-year outcomes of the Childhood Asthma Prevention Study. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2010;126(2):388-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2010.04.031
8. Daley D, Park JE, He JQ, et al. Associations and interactions of genetic polymorphisms in innate immunity genes with early viral infections and susceptibility to asthma and asthma-related phenotypes. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2012;130(6):1284-93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2012.07.051
9. Castro-Rodriguez JA, Holberg CJ, Wright AL, Martinez FD. A clinical index to define risk of asthma in young children with recurrent wheezing. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2000;162(4 Pt 1):1403-06. http://dx.doi.org/10.1164/ajrccm.162.4.9912111
10. Caudri D, Wijga A, Schipper CM, et al. Predicting the long-term prognosis of children with symptoms suggestive of asthma at preschool age. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2009;124(5):903-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2009.06.045
11. Frank PI, Morris JA, Hazell ML, Linehan MF, Frank TL. Long term prognosis in preschool children with wheeze: longitudinal postal questionnaire study 1993-2004. BMJ 2008;336(7658):1423-6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39568.623750.BE
12. Kurukulaaratchy RJ, Matthews S, Holgate ST, Arshad SH. Predicting persistent disease among children who wheeze during early life. Eur Respir J 2003;22(5):767-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.03.00005903
13. Matricardi PM, Illi S, Gruber C, et al. Wheezing in childhood: incidence, longitudinal patterns and factors predicting persistence. Eur Respir J 2008;32(3):585-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.00066307
14. Savenije OE, Kerkhof M, Koppelman GH, Postma DS. Predicting who will have asthma at school age among preschool children. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2012;130(2):325-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2012.05.007
15. Brand PL. The Asthma Predictive Index: not a useful tool in clinical practice. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2011;127(1):293-4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2010.10.012
16. Sullivan LM, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB Sr. Presentation of multivariate data for clinical use: the Framingham Study risk score functions. Stat Med 2004;23(10):1631-60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.1742
17. White IR, Royston P, Wood AM. Multiple imputation using chained equations: issues and guidance for practice. Stat Med 2011;30(4):377-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4067
18. Steyerberg EW, Borsboom GJ, van Houwelingen HC, Eijkemans MJ, Habbema JD. Validation and updating of predictive logistic regression models: a study on sample size and shrinkage. Stat Med 2004;23(16):2567-86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.1844
19. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB Sr, D'Agostino RB, Jr, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med 2008;27(2):157-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.2929
20. British Thoracic Society and Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network. British Guideline on the management of asthma. http://www.sign.ac.uk/pdf/sign101.pdf. Last updated Jan 2012 (accessed 4 Mar 4 2013).
21. Bossuyt PM, Reitsma JB, Bruns DE, et al. The STARD statement for reporting studies of diagnostic accuracy: explanation and elaboration. Ann Intern Med 2003; 138(1):W1-12. http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-138-1-200301070-00010
22. Van CB, Vickers AJ, Pencina MJ, Baker SG, Timmerman D, Steyerberg EW. Evaluation of markers and risk prediction models: overview of relationships between NRI and decision-analytic measures. Med Decis Making 2013;33(4):490-501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989X12470757
23. van Wonderen KE, van der Mark LB, Mohrs J, Bindels PJ, van Aalderen WM, ter Riet G. Different definitions in childhood asthma: how dependable is the dependent variable? Eur Respir J 2010;36(1):48-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.00154409
24. Ungar WJ. Challenges in health state valuation in paediatric economic evaluation: are QALYs contraindicated? Pharmacoeconomics 2011;29(8):641-52. http://dx.doi.org/10.2165/11591570-000000000-00000
25. Juniper EF, Guyatt GH, Feeny DH, Griffith LE, Ferrie PJ. Minimum skills required by children to complete health-related quality of life instruments for asthma: comparison of measurement properties. Eur Respir J 1997;10(10):2285-94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.97.10102285
26. Leonardi NA, Spycher BD, Strippoli MP, Frey U, Silverman M, Kuehni CE. Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2011;127(6):1466-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2011.03.001
27. Devulapalli CS, Carlsen KC, Haland G, et al. Severity of obstructive airways disease by age 2 years predicts asthma at 10 years of age. Thorax 2008;63(1):8-13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thx.2006.060616
28. Holt PG, Rowe J, Kusel M, et al. Toward improved prediction of risk for atopy and asthma among preschoolers: a prospective cohort study. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2010;125(3):653-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2009.12.018
29. Eysink PE, ter Riet G, Aalberse RC, et al. Accuracy of specific IgE in the prediction of asthma: development of a scoring formula for general practice. Br J Gen Pract 2005;55(511):125-31.
30. Lodrup Carlsen KC, Soderstrom L, Mowinckel P, et al. Asthma prediction in school children; the value of combined IgE-antibodies and obstructive airways disease severity score. Allergy 2010;65(9):1134-40.
31. Vial Dupuy A, Amat F, Pereira B, Labbe A, Just J. A simple tool to identify infants at high risk of mild to severe childhood asthma: the persistent asthma predictive score. J Asthma 2011;48(10):1015-21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/02770903.2011.626481
32. Cane RS, Ranganathan SC, McKenzie SA. What do parents of wheezy children understand by "wheeze"? Arch Dis Child 2000;82(4):327-32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/adc.82.4.327