A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

Oikos

Volumn 123, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 290-297

  Carpenter, Stephen R ^a   Brock, William A ^a,b   Cole, Jonathan J ^c   Pace, Michael L ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

^c CARY INSTITUTE OF ECOSYSTEM STUDIES   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894317674     PISSN: 00301299     EISSN: 16000706     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00539.x     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Biggs R. et al. 2009. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106: 826-831.
2. Boettiger C. and Hastings A. 2012a. Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy. Proc. R. Soc. B 279: 4734-4739.
3. Boettiger C. and Hastings A. 2012b. Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. J. R. Soc. Interface 9: 2527-2539.
4. Brock W. A. and Carpenter S. R. 2010. Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings. Ecol. Monogr. 80: 353-367.
5. Brock W. A. and Carpenter S. R. 2012. Early warnings of regime shift when the ecosystem structure is unknown. PLoS ONE 7: e45586.
6. Carpenter S. R. 2002. Ecological futures: building an ecology of the long now. Ecology 83: 2069-2083.
7. Carpenter S. R. 2003. Regime shifts in lake ecosystems: pattern and variation. - Ecology Institute.
8. Carpenter S. R. and Kitchell J. F. (eds) 1993. Trophic cascades in lakes. - Cambridge Univ. Press.
9. Carpenter S. R. and Pace M. L. 1997. Dystrophy and eutrophy in lake ecosystems: implications of fluctuating inputs. Oikos 78: 3-14.
10. Carpenter S. R. and Brock W. A. 2006. Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol. Lett. 9: 311-318.
11. Carpenter S. R. et al. 2001. Trophic cascades, nutrients and lake productivity: whole-lake experiments. Ecol. Monogr. 71: 163-186.
12. Carpenter S. R. et al. 2008. Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecol. Lett. 11: 128-138.
13. Carpenter S. R. et al. 2011. Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332: 1079-1082.
14. Contamin R. and Ellison A. M. 2009. Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: what do we need to know and when do we need to know it. Ecol. Appl. 19: 799-816.
15. Dai L. et al. 2012. Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse. Science 336: 1175-1177.
16. Dakos V. et al. 2008. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105: 14308-14312.
17. Dakos V. et al. 2012. Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PLoS ONE 7: e41010.
18. Drake J. M. and Griffen B. D. 2010. Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467: 456-459.
19. Han S. W. 2010. Efficient change detection methods for bio and health care surveillance. - School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Inst. of Technology.
20. Hastings A. and Wysham D. B. 2010. Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol. Lett. 13: 464-472.
21. Ives A. R. and Dakos V. 2012. Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere 3: art58.
22. Kéfi S. et al. 2012. Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions. Oikos 122: 641-648.
23. Kleinen T. et al. 2003. The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: application to the thermohaline circulation. Ocean Dynamics 53: 53-63.
24. Lai T. L. 1995. Sequential changepoint detection in quality control and dynamical systems. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 57: 613-658.
25. Livina V. N. and Lenton T. M. 2007. A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L03712.
26. Ludkovski M. 2012. Bayesian quickest detection in sensor arrays. Sequential Anal. 31: 481-504.
27. Pace M. L. et al. 2013. Zooplankton provide early warnings of a regime shift in a whole-lake manipulation. Limnol. Oceanogr. 58: 525-532.
28. Pollak M. and Tartakovsky A. G. 2009. Optimality of the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure. Stat. Sin. 19: 1729-1739.
29. Polunchenko A. and Tartakovsky A. G. 2012. State of the art in sequential change-point detection. Meth. Comput. Appl. Probabil. 14: 649-683.
30. Porter J. H. et al. 2012. Staying afloat in the sensor data deluge. Trends Ecol. Evol. 27: 121-129.
31. Scheffer M. et al. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.
32. Scheffer M. et al. 2012. Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338: 344-348.
33. Seekell D. et al. 2012. Conditional heteroskedasticity forecasts regime shift in a whole-ecosystem experiment. Ecosystems 15: 741-747.
34. Seekell D. A. et al. 2012. Conditional heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts. Am. Nat. 178: 442-451.
35. Shiryaev A. N. 2010. Quickest detection problems: fifty years later. Sequential Anal. 29: 345-385.
36. Tartakovsky A. G. et al. 2006. A novel approach to detection of intrusions in computer networks via adaptive sequential and batch-sequential change-point detection methods. IEEE Trans. Signal Processing 54: 3372-3382.
37. Wang R. et al. 2012. Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature 492: 419-422.