Application of a Bayesian belief network for assessing the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw and implications for greenhouse gas production and climate feedback

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 38, Issue , 2014, Pages 28-44

  Webster, K L ^a   McLaughlin, J W ^b  

^a LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^b ONTARIO FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Canada)

Author keywords

Arctic; Bayesian; Climate feedback; Greenhouse gases; Hudson Plain; Permafrost thaw

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894263766     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.10.008     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Aguilera P.A., Fernandez A., Fernandez R., Rumi R., Salmeron A. Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Environ. Modell. Software 2011, 26:1376-1388.
2. Anisimov O.A. Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission. Environ. Res. Lett. 2007, 2:045016. 10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045016.
3. Anisimov O.A., Nelson F.E. Permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere under scenarios of climatic change. Global Planet. Change 1996, 14:59-72.
4. Anisimov O.A., Nelson F.E. Permafrost zonation and climate change in the northern hemisphere: results from transient general circulation models. Clim. Change 1997, 35:241-258.
5. Bäckstrand, K., Crill, P.M., Mastepanov, M., Christensen, T.R., Bastviken, D., 2008. Total hydrocarbon flux dynamics at a subarctic mire in northern Sweden. J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci. 113: G03026, doi:10.1029/2008JG000703.
6. Beilman, D.W., Robinson, S.D., 2003. Peatland permafrost thaw and landform type along a climatic gradient. In: Phillips, M., Springman, S.M., Arenson, L.U. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost, vol. 1, A.A. Balkema, Zurich, Switzerland, pp. 61-65.
7. Bosiö J., Johansson M., Callaghan T.V., Johanson B., Torben T.R. Future vegetation changes in thawing subarctic mires and implications for greenhouse gas exchange-a regional assessment. Clim. Change 2012, 115:379-398.
8. Brown R.J.E. Permafrost in Canada. Geological Survey of Canada Map 1246a and Division of Building Research Map NRC-9769 1967, Natural Resources Council of Canada, Ottawa, ON.
9. Brown J., Hinkel K.M., Nelson F.E. The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program: research designs and initial results. Polar Geogr. 2000, 24:163-258.
10. Bubier J.L., Moore T.R., Bellisario L., Comer N.T., Crill P.M. Ecological controls on methane emissions from a northern peatland complex in the zone of discontinuous permafrost, Manitoba Canada. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 1995, 9:455-470.
11. Burke E.J., Hartley I.P., Jones C.D. Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing. Cryosphere 2012, 6(5):1063-1076.
12. Burn C.R., Kokelj S.V. The environment and permafrost of the Mackenzie Delta area. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 2009, 20:83-105.
13. Camill P., Lynch J.A., Clark J.S., Adams J.B., Jordan B. Changes in biomass, aboveground net primary production, and peat accumulation following permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of Manitoba, Canada. Ecosystems 2001, 4:461-478.
14. Camill P. Permafrost thaw accelerates in boreal peatlands during late-20th cnetury climate warming. Clim. Change 2005, 68:135-152.
15. Carlson M.J., Chen S., Elgie C., Henschel A., Montenegro N., Roulet N., Scott C., Tarnocai J., Wells Maintaining the role of Canada's forests and peatlands in climate regulation. Forest. Chronicle 2010, 86(4):434-443.
16. Chapin, F.S., McGuire, A.D., Randerson, J., Pielke, R., Baldocci, D., Hobbie, S.E., Roulet, N., Eugster, W., Kasischke, E., Ratetter, E.B., Zimo, S.A., Running, S.W., 2000. Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biol. 6(Suppl. 1), 211-223.
17. Christensen T.R., Johansson T.R., Akerman H.J., Mastepanov M., Malmer N., Fribor T., Crill P., Svensson B.H. Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: effects on vegetation and methane emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31(4):L04501.
18. DeConto R.M., Galeotti S., Pagani M., Tracy D., Schaefer K., Zhang T., Pollard D., Beerling D.J. Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nature 2012, 484:87-91.
19. Fan Z.S., Neff J.C., Harden J.W., Zhang T.J., Veldhuis H., Czimczik C.I., Winston G.C., O'Donnell J.A. Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change. Sci. Total Environ. 2011, 409(10):1836-1842.
20. Field C.B., Lobell D.B., Peters H.A., Chiariello N.R. Feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Ann. Rev. Environ. Resources 2007, 32:1-29.
21. Friborg T., Christensen T.R., Søegaard H. Rapid response of greenhouse gas emission to early spring thaw in a subarctic mire as shown by micrometeorological techniques. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1997, 24:3061-3064.
22. Fronzek S., Luoto M., Carter T.R. Potential effect of climate change on the distribution of palsa mires in Subarctic Fennoscandia. Clim. Res. 2006, 32:1-12.
23. Glick, P., Stein, B.A., Edelson, N.A. (Eds.), 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.
24. Godin A., McLaughlin J.W., Webster K.L., Packalen M., Basiliko N. Methane and methanogen community dynamics across a boreal peatland nutrient gradient. Soil Biol. Biochem. 2012, 48:96-105.
25. 2 exchange at a subarctic sedge fen. Global Change Biol. 2001, 7:511-530.
26. Grosse, G., Harden, J., Turetsky, M., McGuire, A.D., Camill, P., Tarnocai, C., Frolking, S., Schuur, E.A.G., Jorgenson, T., Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Wickland, K.P., French, N., Waldrop, M., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Striegl, R.G., 2011. Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance. J. Geophys. Res. 116: G00K06, doi:10.1029/2010JG001507.
27. Halsey L.A., Vitt D.H., Zoltai S.C. Disequilibrium response of permafrost in boreal continental western Canada to climate change. Clim. Change 1995, 30(1):57-73.
28. Hinzman L.D., Kane D.L., Gieck R.E., Everett K.R. Hydrologic and thermal properties of the active layer in the Alaskan Arctic. Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 1991, 19:95-110.
29. Hobbie S.E., Nadelhoffer K.J., Högberg P. A synthesis: the role of nutrients as constraints on carbon balances in boreal and Arctic regions. Plant Soil 2002, 242:163-170.
30. Hossain M.F., Zhang Y., Chen W.J., Wang J.W., Pavlic G. Soil organic carbon content in northern Canada: a database of field measurements and its analysis. Can. J. Soil Sci. 2007, 87(3):259-268.
31. Johansson T., Malmer N., Crill P.M., Friborg T., Åkerman J.H., Mastepanov M., Christensen T.R. Decadal vegetation changes in a northern peatland, greenhouse gas fluxes and net radiative forcing. Global Change Biol. 2006, 12:2352-2369.
32. 2 exchange in Alaskan wet sedge tundra ecosystems. Ecology 2000, 81:453-469.
33. Jorgenson M.T., Romanovsky V., Harden J., Shur Y., O'Donnell J., Schuur E.A.G., Kanewskiy M., Marchenko S. Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change. Can. J. Forest Res. 2010, 40:1219-1236.
34. Laiho R. Decomposition in peatlands: reconciling seemingly contrasting results on the impacts of lowered water levels. Soil Biol. Biochem. 2006, 38:2011-2024.
35. Lang S.I., Cornelissen J.H.C., Klahn T., Van Logtestijin R.S.P., Broekman R., Schweikert W., Aerts R. An experimental comparison of chemical traits and litter decomposition rates in a diverse range of subarctic bryophyte, lichen and vascular plant species. J. Ecol. 2009, 97:886-900.
36. Lawrence D.M., Swenson S.C. Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2011, 6:045504.
37. Lee, H., Schuur, E.A.G., Inglett, K.S., Lavoie, M., Chanton, J.P., 2012. The rate of permafrost carbon release under aerobic and anaerobic conditions and its potential effects on climate. Global Change Biol. 18, 515-527, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02519.
38. Locke H., Mackey B. The nature of climate change. Int. J. Wilderness 2009, 15:7-13.
39. Malmer N., Johansson T., Olsrud M., Christensen T.R. Vegetation, climatic changes and net carbon sequestration in a North-Scandinavian subarctic mire over 30 years. Global Change Biol. 2005, 11:1895-1909.
40. McCann R.K., Marcot B.G., Ellis R. Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management. Can. J. Forest Res. 2006, 36:3053-3062.
41. McLaughlin, J.W., Webster, K.L., 2013a. Effects of a Changing Climate on Peatlands in Permafrost Zones: A Literature Review and Application to Ontario's Far North. OMNR Climate Change Research Report CCRR-34.
42. McLaughlin, J.W., Webster, K.L., 2013b. Effects of a changing climate on peatlands in permafrost zones: a literature review with application to the Far North of Ontario. Arctic, Antarctic Alpine Res., accepted for publication.
43. Myers B., Webster K.L., McLaughlin J.W., Basiliko N. Microbial activity across a boreal peatland nutrient gradient: the role of fungi and bacterial. Wetlands Ecol. Manag. 2011, 20:77-88. 10.1007/s11273-011-9242-2.
44. Myers-Smith, I.H., McGuire, A.D., Harden, J.W., Chapin III, R.C., 2007. Influence of disturbance on carbon exchange in a permafrost collapse and adjacent burned forest. J. Geophys. Res. 112, G04017, doi:10.1029/2007JG000423.
45. Nakano T.S., Kuniyoshi M., Fukuda Temporal variation in methane emission from tundra wetlands in a permafrost area, northeastern Sibera. Atmosph. Environ. 2000, 34:1205-1213.
46. Norsys Software Corp, 2003. NeticaTM-Version 4.16. Software. Vancouver, B.C.
47. 2 exchange in the Alaskan Arctic in response to decadal climate warming. Nature 2000, 406:978-981.
48. Osterkamp T.E., Romanovsky V.E. Evidence for warming and thawing of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 1999, 10(1):17-37.
49. Overduin P.P., Kane D.L., van Loon W.K.P. Measuring thermal conductivity in freezing and thawing soil using soil temperature response to heating. Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 2006, 45:8-22.
50. Payette, S., Delwaide, A., Caccianiga, M., Beauchemin, M., 2004. Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18208, doi:10.1029/2004GL020358.
51. Rinnan R., Michelsen A., Baath E., Jonasson S. Fifteen years of climate change manipulations alter soil microbial communities in a subarctic heath ecosystem. Global Change Biol. 2007, 13:28-39.
52. Riseborough D.W. The mean annual temperature at the top of permafrost, the TTOP model, and the effect of unfrozen water. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 2002, 13:137-143.
53. Robinson S.D., Moore T.R. The influence of permafrost and fire upon carbon accumulation in high boreal peatlands, Northwest Territories, Canada. Arctic, Antarctic Alpine Res. 2000, 32:155-166.
54. Robinson, S., Park, J., Kettles, I., 2001. Northern Peatlands to Monitor Recent and Future Warming. Final Report of CCAR Project A313. Geological Survey of Canada.
55. Hilaire St.F., Wu J., Roulet N.T., Frolking S., Lafleur P.M., Humphreys E.R., Arora V. McGill Wetland Model: evaluation of a peatland carbon simulator developed for global assessment. Biogeosciences 2010, 7:3517-3530.
56. Scarlett L. Climate change effects: the intersection of science, policy, and resource management in the USA. J. North Am. Benthological Soc. 2010, 29:892-903.
57. Schuur E.A.G., Bockheim J., Canadell J.G., Euskirchen E., Field C.B., Goryachkin S.V., Hagemann S., Kuhry P., Lafleur P.M., Lee H., Mazhitova G., Nelson F.E., Rinke A., Romanovsky V.E., Shiklomanov N., Tarnocai C., Venevsky G., Vogel J.G., Zimov S. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience 2008, 58(8):701-714.
58. Smith, S., Burgess, M.M., 2004. Sensitivity of Permafrost to Climate Warming in Canada. Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin. 579, 24 pp.
59. Smith M.W., Riseborough D.W. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 1996, 7:301-309.
60. Smith M.W., Riseborough D.W. Climate and the limits of permafrost: a zonal analysis. Permafrost Periglacial Processes 2002, 13:1-15.
61. Smith S.L., Romanovsky V.E., Lewkowicz A.G., Burn C.R., Allard M., Clow G.D., Yoshikawa K., Throop J. Thermal state of permafrost in North America: a contribution to the International Polar Year. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 2010, 21:117-135.
62. Stolaroff J.K., Bhattacharyya S., Smith C.A., Bourcier W.L., Cameron-Smith P.J., Aines R.D. Review of methane mitigation technologies with application to rapid release of methane from the Arctic. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46:6455-6469.
63. Sturm M., Holmgren J., McFadden J.P., Liston G.E., Chapin F.S., Racine C.H. Snow-shrub interactions in Arctic tundra: a hypothesis with climatic implications. J. Climate 2001, 14:336-344.
64. Tarnocai, C., Ping, C.-L., Kimble, J., 2007. Chapter 12: Carbon cycles in permafrost regions of North America. In: King, A.W., Dilling, L., Zimmerman, G.P., Fairman, D.M., Houghton, R.A., Marland, G., Rose, A.Z., Wilbanks, T.J. (Eds.), The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the global Carbon Cycle. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. pp. 127-138.
65. Tarnocai, C., Stolbovoy, V., 2006. Northern peatlands: their characteristics, development and sensitivity to climate change. In: Martini, I.P., Martinez Cortizas, A., Chesworth, W. (Eds.), Peatlands: Evolution and Records of Environmental and Climate Changes. Elsevier, London, UK, pp. 17-51.
66. Turetsky, M.T., Weider, R.K., Halsey, L., Vitt, D.H., 2002. Current disturbance and the diminishing peatland carbon sink. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1526, doi:10.1029/2001GL014000.
67. Turetsky M.R., Wieder R.K., Williams C.J., Vitt D.H. Organic matter accumulation, peat chemistry, and permafrost thawing in peatlands of boreal Alberta. Écoscience 2000, 7:379-392.
68. Turetsky M.R., Wieder R.K., Vitt D.H., Evans R.J., Scott K.D. The disappearance of relict permafrost in boreal north America: effects on peatland carbon storage and fluxes. Global Change Biol. 2007, 13:1922-1934.
69. Turner B.L., Kaperson R.E., Matson P.A., McCarthy J.J., Corell R.W., Christensen L., Eckley N., Kasperson J.X., Luers A., Martello M.L., Polsky C., Pulsipher A., and A., Schiller A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2003, 100(14):8074-8079.
70. Vallée S., Payette S. Collapse of permafrost mounds along a subarctic river over the last 100 years (northern Québec). Geomorphology 2007, 90:162-170.
71. Vitt D.H., Halsey L.A., Zoltai S.C. The bog landforms of continental western Canada in relation to climate and permafrost patterns. Arctic Alpine Res. 1994, 26(1):1-13.
72. Vitt D.H., Halsey L.A., Bauer I.E., Campbell C. Spatial and temporal trends in carbon storage of peatlands of continental western Canada through the Holocene. Can. J. Earth Sci. 2000, 37:683-693.
73. von Deimling T.S., Meinshausen M., Levermann A., Huber V., Frieler K., Lawrence D.M., Brovkin V. Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feeback on global warming. Biogeosciences 2012, 9(2):649-665.
74. Walter K.M., Zimov S.A., Chanton J.P., Verbyla D., Chapin F.S. Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature 2006, 443:71-75.
75. Webster K.L.J.W., McLaughlin Y., Kim M.S., Packalen C.S., Li Modelling carbon dynamics and response to environmental change along a boreal fen nutrient gradient. Ecol. Modell. 2012, 248:148-164.
76. Wickland, K.P., Striegl, R.G., Neff, J.C., Sachs, T., 2006. Effects of permafrost melting on CO2 and CH4 exchange of a poorly drained black spruce lowland. J. Geophys. Res. 111, G02011, doi:10.1029/2005JG000099.
77. Zhang T. Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview. Rev. Geophys. 2005, 43:1-23.
78. Zhang Y., Chen W., Cihlar J. A process-based model for quantifying the impact of climate change on permafrost thermal regimes. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108:4695. 10.1029/2002JD003354.
79. Zhang Y., Chen W., Smith S.L., Riseborough D.W., Cihlar J. Soil temperature in Canada during the twentieth century: complex responses to atmospheric climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:D03112. 10.1029/2004JD004910.
80. Zhang Y., Chen W., Riseborough D.W. Temporal and spatial changes of permafrost in Canada since the end of the Little Ice Age. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D22103. 10.1029/2006JD007284.
81. Zhang Y., Chen W., Riseborough D.W. Transient projections of permafrost distribution in Canada during the 21st century under scenarios of climate change. Global Planet. Change 2008, 60(3-4):443-456.