Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing

Cryosphere

Volumn 6, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1063-1076

  Burke, E J ^a   Hartley, I P ^b   Jones, C D ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; METHANE; PERMAFROST; SOIL CARBON; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; THAWING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84870176858     PISSN: 19940416     EISSN: 19940424     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R .L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description-Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.
2. Bloom, A. A., P. I. Palmer, A. Fraser, D. S. Reay, and Franken-berg, C.: Large-scale controls of methanogenesis inferred from methane and gravity spaceborne Data, Science, 327, 322-325, doi:10.1126/science.1175176, 2010.
3. Burke, E. J., Dankers, R. D., and Jones, C. D.: Evaluating changes in near-surface permafrost during the 20th century with the JULES land surface model, Clim. Dynam., in revision, 2012.
4. Callaghan, T. V., Bergholm, F., Christensen, T. R., Jonasson, C., Kokfelt, U., and Johansson, M.: A new climate era in the subArctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts, Geo-phys. Res. Lett., 37, L14705, doi:10.1029/2009GL042064, 2010.
5. Clark, D. B., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description-Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701-722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011.
6. Collins, B., Boucher, O., Jones, C., Totterdell, I., Halloran, P., Woodward, S., O'Connor, F., Bellouin, N., Rumbold, S., Gedney, N., and Gregory, J.: Non-CO2 biogeochemical feedbacks in the HadGEM2 Earth system model, Joint DECC and Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, Reference: DECC/Defra GA01101, February 2011, D2.3.2., 2011a.
7. Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Lid-dicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model-HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051-1075, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011b.
8. Dankers, R., Burke, E. J., and Price, J.: Simulation of permafrost and seasonal thaw depth in the JULES land surface scheme, The Cryosphere, 5, 773-790, doi:10.5194/tc-5-773-2011, 2011.
9. Davidson, E. A. and Janssens, I. A.: Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change, Nature, 440, 165-173, 2006. (Pubitemid 43372088)
10. Dutta, K., Schuur, E. A. G., Neff, J. C., and Zimov, S. A.: Potential carbon release from permafrost soils of Northeastern Siberia, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 2336-2351, 2006. (Pubitemid 44857708)
11. Etzelmuller, B., Schuler, T. V., Isaksen, K., Christiansen, H. H., Far-brot, H., and Benestad, R.: Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century, The Cryosphere, 5, 67-79, doi:10.5194/tc-5-67-2011, 2011 Falloon, P. D., Smith, P., Coleman, K., and Marshall, S.: Estimating the size of the inert organic matter pool from total soil organic carbon content for use in the rothamsted carbon model, Soil Biol. Biochem., 30, 1207-1211, 1998.
12. Frauenfeld, O. W., Zhang, T., Barry, R. G., and Gilichinsky, D.: Interdecadal changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths in Russia, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05101, doi:10.1029/2003JD004245, 2004.
13. Frolking, S., Roulet, N. T., Moore, T. R., Richard, P. J. H., Lavoie, M., and Muller, S. D.: Modeling northern peatland decomposition and peat accumulation, Ecosystems, 4, 479-498, 2001. (Pubitemid 32832219)
14. Gruber N., Friedlingstein, P., Field, C. B., Valentini, R., Heimann, M., Richey, J. E., Romero-Lankao, P., Schulze, D., and Chen, C.-T. A.: The vulnerability of the carbon cycle in the 21st century: An assessment of carbon-climate human interactions, in: The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World, edited by: Field, C. B. and Raupach, M. R., Washington DC, Island Press, 45-76, 2004.
15. Hobbie, S. E., Schimel, J. P., Trumbore, S. E., and Randerson, J. R.: A mechanistic understanding of carbon storage and turnover in high-latitude soils, Glob. Change Biol., 6, 196-210, 2000. (Pubitemid 32978785)
16. Hollesen, J., Elberling, B., and Jansson, P. E.: Future active layer dynamics and carbon dioxide production from thawing permafrost layers in Northeast Greenland, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 911-926, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486. 2010.02256.x, 2011.
17. Isaksen, K., Sollid, J. L., Holmlund, P., and Harris, C.: Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F02S04, doi:10.1029/2006JF000522, 2007. (Pubitemid 47342583)
18. Jones, C. D., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F. M., Andres, R. J., Bell, C., Boo, K.-O., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, K. D., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gor-nall, J., Gray, L., Halloran, P. R., Hurtt, G., Ingram, W. J., Lamar-que, J.-F., Law, R. M., Meinshausen, M., Osprey, S., Palin, E. J., Parsons Chini, L., Raddatz, T., Sanderson, M. G., Sellar, A. A., Schurer, A., Valdes, P., Wood, N., Woodward, S., Yoshioka, M., and Zerroukat, M.: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543-570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011, 2011.
19. Khvorostyanov, D. V., Krinner, G., Ciais, P., Heimann, M., and Zimov, S. A.: Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part 1: Model description and role of heat generated by organic matter decomposition, Tellus B, 60, 265-275, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00333.x, 2008.
20. Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., and Tarnocai, C.: Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 14769-14774, doi:10.1073/pnas.1103910108, 2011.
21. Kuhry, P., Dorrepaal, E., Hugelius, G., Schuur, E. A. G., and Tarnocai, C.: Potential remobilization of belowground permafrost carbon under future global warming, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 208-214, doi:10.1002/ppp.684, 2010.
22. Lawrence, D. M. and Slater, A. G.: A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080, 2005. (Pubitemid 43239948)
23. Lee, H., Schuur, E. A. G., Inglett, K. S., Lavoie, M., and Chan-ton, J. P.: The rate of permafrost carbon release under aerobic and anaerobic conditions and its potential effects on climate, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 515-527, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02519.x, 2012.
24. Lehner, B. and Doll, P.: Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands, J. Hydrol., 296, 1-22, 2004. (Pubitemid 38946697)
25. Michaelson, G. J. and Ping, C. L.: Soil organic carbon and CO2 respiration at subzero temperature in soils of Arctic Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8164, doi:10.1029/2001JD000920, 2003.
26. Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., and Stainforth, D. A.: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768-772, 2004. (Pubitemid 39071344)
27. O'Connor F. M., Boucher, O., Gedney, N., Jones, C. D., Folberth, G. A., Coppell, R., Friedlingstein, P., Collins, W. J., Chappel-laz, J., Ridley, J., and Johnson, C. E.: Possible role of wetlands, permafrost and methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change: a review, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4005, doi:10.1029/2010RG000326, 2010.
28. Osterkamp, T. E.: Characteristics of the recent warming of permafrost in Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S02, doi:10.1029/2006JF000578, 2007. (Pubitemid 47342581)
29. Raupach, M. R. and Canadell, J. G.: Observing a vulnerable carbon cycle, in: The Continental-Scale, Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe, edited by: Dolman, A. J., Valentini, R., and Freibauer A., Springer, New York, 5-32, 2008.
30. Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Bruhwiler, L., and Bareett, A. P.: Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, 63, 165-180, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x, 2011.
31. Schimel, J. P.: Plant transport and methane production as controls on methane flux from arctic wet meadow tundra, Biogeochemistry, 28, 183-200, 1995. (Pubitemid 26439550)
32. Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Hu-ber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., and Brovkin, V.: Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming, Biogeosciences, 9, 649-665, doi:10.5194/bg-9-649-2012, 2012.
33. Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J.,. Canadell, J. G, Euskirchen, E., Field, C. B., Goryachkin, S. V., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P. M., Lee, H., Mazhitova, F.E. Nelson, A. Rinke, V.E. Ro-manovsky, N. Shiklomanov, C. Tarnocai, G., Venevsky, S., Vo-gel, J. G., and Zimov, S. A.: Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle, Bio-science, 58, 701-714, doi:10.1641/B580807, 2008.
34. Schuur, E. A. G., Vogel, J. G., Crummer, K. G., Lee, H., Sickman, J. O., and Osterkamp, T. E.: The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra, Nature, 459, 556-559, 2009.
35. Shakhova, N., Semiletov, I., Salyuk, A., Yusupov, V., Kosmach, D., and Gustafsson, O .: Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Science, 327, 1246-1250, doi:10.1126/science. 1182221, 2010.
36. Shea, K.: Quantifying diffusion, ebullition, and plant-mediated transport of CH4 in Alaskan peatlands undergoing permafrost thaw, University of Guelph, 93 pp., MR71490, 2011.
37. Shiklomanov, N. I., Streletskiy, D. A., Nelson, F. E., Hollister, R. D., Romanovsky, V. E., Tweedie, C. E., Bockheim, J. G., and Brown, J.: Decadal variations of active-layer thickness in moisture-controlled landscapes, Barrow, Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 115, G00I04, doi:10.1029/2009JG001248, 2010.
38. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Mill, H. L. (Eds.): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
39. Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhi-tova, G., and Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023, doi:10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009.
40. Turetsky, M. R., Wieder R. K., and Vitt, D. H.: Boreal peatland C fluxes under varying permafrost regimes, Soil Biol. Biochem., 34, 907-912, 2002. (Pubitemid 34731324)
41. Uhlirová, E., S?antrucková, H., and Davidov, S. P.: Quality and potential biodegradability of soil organic matter preserved in of Siberian tussock tundra, Soil Biol. Biochem., 39, 1978-1989, 2007. (Pubitemid 46754358)
42. Waldrop, M. P., Wickland, K. P., White III, R., Berhe, A. A., Harden, J. W., and Romanoovsky, V. E.: Molecular investiga-tions into a globally important carbon pool: permafrost-protected carbon in Alaskan soils, Glob. Change Biol,16, 2543-2554,doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02141.x 2010.
43. Walter, K. M., Zimov, S. A., Chanton, J. P., Verbyla, D., and Chapin III, F. S.: Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming, Nature, 443, 71-75, 2006. (Pubitemid 44344049)
44. Wu, Q. and Zhang, T.: Changes in active layer thickness over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2007, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012974, 2010.
45. Zhang, T., Barry, R. G., Knowles, K., Heginbottom, J. A., and Brown, J.: Statistics and characteristics of permafrost and ground-ice distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, Polar Geography, 23, 132-154, 1999. (Pubitemid 30438129)
46. Zhang, T., Barry, R. G., Knowles, K., Ling, F., and Armstrong, R. L.: Distribution of seasonally and perennially frozen ground in the Northern Hemisphere, in: Permafrost, edited by: Phillips, M., Springman, S. M., and Arenson, L. U., Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, 1289-1294, 2003.
47. Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J. M., Kicklighter, D. W., Prinn, R. G., McGuire, A. D., Steudler, P. A., Felzer, B. S., and Hu, S.: Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeo-chemistry model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB3010, doi:10.1029/2004GB002239, 2004. (Pubitemid 39621740)
48. Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J. M., Sarofim, M. C., Kicklighter, D. W., McGuire, A. D., Felzer, B. S., Sokolov, A., Prinn, R. G., Steudler, P. A., and Hu, S.: CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17403, doi:10.1029/2006GL026972, 2006. (Pubitemid 44945639)