Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

Mathematical and Computational Forestry and Natural-Resource Sciences

Volumn 5, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 151-169

  Potter, Kevin M ^a   Hargrove, William W ^b  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Conservation; Forest health monitoring; Humanassisted migration; Multivariate clustering; Niche occupancy; Range shift pressure; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

CONSERVATION; FORESTRY; HEALTH RISKS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

FOREST HEALTH MONITORING; HUMANASSISTED MIGRATION; MULTIVARIATE CLUSTERING; NICHE OCCUPANCY; RANGE SHIFTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ASSESSMENT METHOD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; FOREST INVENTORY; FOREST MANAGEMENT; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDICTION; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

CLIMATES; CONSERVATION; FORESTRY; GIS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84894050934     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19467664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Aitken, S.N., S. Yeaman, J.A. Holliday, T.L. Wang, and S. Curtis-McLane. 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evol. Appl. 1(1):95-111.
2. Aubry, C., W. Devine, R. Shoal, A. Bower, J. Miller, and N. Maggiulli. 2011. Climate Change and Forest Biodiversity: A Vulnerability Assessment and Action Plan for National Forests in Western Washington. USDA For. Serv. Pacific Northwest Region. 308 p.
3. Baker, B., H. Diaz, W. Hargrove, and F. Hoffman. 2010. Use of the Koppen-Trewartha climate classification to evaluate climatic refugia in statistically derived ecoregions for the People's Republic of China. Clim. Change 98(1-2):113-131.
4. Barazani, O., A. Perevolotsky, and R. Hadas. 2008. A problem of the rich: Prioritizing local plant genetic resources for ex situ conservation in Israel. Biol. Conserv. 141(2):596-600.
5. Bechtold, W.A., and P.L. Patterson. 2005. The Enhanced Forest Inventory and Analysis Program: National Sampling Design and Estimation Procedures. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-GTR-80. 85 p.
6. Brook, B.W., N.S. Sodhi, and C.J.A. Bradshaw. 2008. Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 23(8):453-460.
7. Coates, D.J., and K.A. Atkins. 2001. Priority setting and the conservation of Western Australia's diverse and highly endemic ora. Biol. Conserv. 97(2):251-263.
8. Crookston, N. 2013. Research on Forest Climate Change: Potential Effects of Global Warming on Forest and Plant Climate Relationships in Western North America and Mexico. Available onlineat http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/; last accessed June 25, 2013.
9. Davis, M.B., and R.G. Shaw. 2001. Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science 292(5517):673-679.
10. Davis, M.B., R.G. Shaw, and J.R. Etterson. 2005. Evolutionary responses to changing climate. Ecology 86(7):1704-1714.
11. Devine, W., C. Aubry, J. Miller, K.M. Potter, and A.D. Bower. 2012. Climate change and forest trees in the Pacific Northwest: Guide to vulnerability assessment methodology. USDA For. Serv. Pacific Northwest Region. 49 p. Available online at http://ecoshare.info/projects/ccft/; last accessed Aug. 15, 2013.
12. Dukes, J.S., J. Pontius, D. Orwig, J.R. Garnas, V.L. Rodgers, N. Brazee, B. Cooke, K.A. Theoharides, E.E. Stange, R. Harrington, J. Ehrenfeld, J. Gurevitch, M. Lerdau, K. Stinson, R. Wick, and M. Ayres. 2009. Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict? Can. J. For. Res. 39(2):231-248.
13. Fitzpatrick, M.C., and W.W. Hargrove. 2009. The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodivers. Conserv. 18(8):2255-2261.
14. Flora of North America Editorial Committee. 1993+. Flora of North America North of Mexico. Available online at http:// oranorthamerica.org/; last accessed June 25, 2013.
15. Fridley, J.D., D.B. Vandermast, D.M. Kuppinger, M. Manthey, and R.K. Peet. 2007. Co-occurrence based assessment of habitat generalists and specialists: a new approach for the measurement of niche width. J. Ecol. 95(4):707-722.
16. Gauthier, P., M. Debussche, and J.D. Thompson. 2010. Regional priority setting for rare species based on a method combining three criteria. Biol. Conserv. 143(6):1501-1509.
17. Global Soil Data Task Group. 2000. Global Gridded Surfaces of Selected Soil Characteristics (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme-Data and Information System [IGBP-DIS]). Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
18. Hampe, A., and R.J. Petit. 2005. Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecol. Lett. 8(5):461-467.
19. Hargrove, W.W., and F.M. Hoffman. 2003. An analytical assessment tool for predicting changes in a species distribution map following changes in environmental conditions. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling (GIS/EM4): Problems, Prospects and Research Needs, September 2-8, 2000, Parks, B.O., K.M. Clark, and M.P. Crane (eds.). Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Ecosystem Informatics; and US Geological Survey, Center for Biological Informatics, Banff, Alberta, Canada.
20. Hargrove, W.W., and F.M. Hoffman. 2005. Potential of multivariate quantitative methods for delineation and visualization of ecoregions. Environ. Manage. 34((Suppl. 1)):S39-S60.
21. Harris, J.A., R.J. Hobbs, E. Higgs, and J. Aronson. 2006. Ecological restoration and global climate change. Restor. Ecol. 14(2):170-176.
22. Hiebert, R.D., and J.L. Hamrick. 1984. An ecological study of bristleone pine (Pinus longaeva) in Utah and eastern Nevada. Great Basin Nat. 44(3):487-494.
23. Hijmans, R.J., S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25(15):1965-1978.
24. Hoffman, F.M., W.W. Hargrove, D.J. Erickson, and R.J. Oglesby. 2005. Using clustered climate regimes to analyze and compare predictions from fully coupled general circulation models. Earth Interact 9(10):1-27.
25. International Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 996 p.
26. Iverson, L.R., and D. McKenzie. 2013. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecol. 28(5):879-889.
27. Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, S.N. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. For. Ecol. Manage. 254(3):390-406.
28. Iverson, L.R., M.W. Schwartz, and A.M. Prasad. 2004a. How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 13(3):209-219.
29. Iverson, L.R., M.W. Schwartz, and A.M. Prasad. 2004b. Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecol. 19(7):787-799.
30. Johnson, G.R., F.C. Sorensen, J.B. St Clair, and R.C. Cronn. 2004. Pacific Northwest forest tree seed zones: A template for native plants? Native Plants J. 5(2):131-140.
31. Kowalski, C.J. 1972. On the effects of non-normality on distribution of sample product-moment correlation coe fficient. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C-Appl. Stat. 21(1):1-12.
32. Little, E.L. 1971. Atlas of United States Trees. Volume 1. Conifers and Important Hardwoods. USDA For. Serv. Misc. Pub. 1146. 9 p., illus. [313 maps, folio].
33. Logan, J.A., J. Regniere, and J.A. Powell. 2003. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Front. Ecol. Environ. 1(3):130-137.
34. Loo, J. 2009. Ecological impacts of non-indigenous invasive fungi as forest pathogens. Biol. Invasions 11(1):81-96.
35. Lugo, A.E., S.L. Brown, R. Dodson, T.S. Smith, and H.H. Shugart. 1999. The Holdridge life zones of the conterminous United States in relation to ecosystem mapping. J. Biogeogr. 26(5):1025-1038.
36. Malmsheimer, R.W., P. Heffernan, S. Brink, D. Crandall, F. Deneke, C. Galik, E. Gee, J.A. Helms, N. McClure, M. Mortimer, S. Ruddell, M. Smith, and J. Stewart. 2008. Forest management solutions for mitigating climate change in the United States. J. For. 106(3):115-173.
37. Mangold, R.D., and W.J. Libby. 1978. Model for reforestation with optimal and suboptimal tree populations. Silvae Genet. 27(2):66-68.
38. Matthews, S.N., L.R. Iverson, A.M. Prasad, M.P. Peters, and P.G. Rodewald. 2011. Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life historyfactors. For. Ecol. Manage. 262(8):1460-1472.
39. McLaughlin, S.P. 1995. An overview of the ora of the sky islands, southeastern Arizona: Diversity, affinities, and insularity. P. 60-70 in Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago: The Sky Islands of Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico, DeBano, L.H., P.H. Ffolliott, A. Ortega-Rubio, G.J. Gottfried, R.H. Hamre, and C.B. Edminster (eds.). USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMGTR-264. 669 p.
40. Moore, I.D., R.B. Grayson, and A.R. Ladson. 1991. Digital terrain modeling: A review of hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications. Hydrol. Process. 5(1):3-30.
41. Myking, T. 2002. Evaluating genetic resources of forest trees by means of life history traits-a Norwegian example. Biodivers. Conserv. 11(9):1681-1696.
42. Neilson, R.P. 1995. A model for predicting continentalscale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecol. Appl. 5(2):362-385.
43. Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37:637-669.
44. Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421(6918):37-42.
45. Pedlar, J.H., D.W. McKenney, I. Aubin, T. Beardmore, J. Beaulieu, L. Iverson, G.A. O'Neill, R.S. Winder, and C. Ste-Marie. 2012. Placing forestry in the assisted migration debate. Bioscience 62(9):835-842.
46. Petit, R.J., R. Bialozyt, P. Garnier-Gere, and A. Hampe. 2004. Ecology and genetics of tree invasions: From recent introductions to Quaternary migrations. For. Ecol. Manage. 197(1-3):117-137.
47. Potter, K.M., and W.W. Hargrove. 2012. Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: A global quantitative model. New Forest: 43(5-6):581-599.
48. Potter, K.M., W.W. Hargrove, and F.H. Koch. 2010. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species. P. 179-189 in Proceedings from the Conference on Ecology and Management of High-Elevation Forests of the Central and Southern Appalachian Mountains, Snowshoe, West Virginia, May 14-15, 2009, Rentch, J.S., and T.M. Schuler (eds.). USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-64. 242 p.
49. Prasad, A.M., L.R. Iverson, S. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2013. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States. Available online at http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree atlas.html; last accessed June 25, 2013.
50. Prentice, I.C., W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R.A. Monserud, and A.M. Solomon. 1992. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr. 19(2):117-134.
51. Rehfeldt, G.E. 1999. Systematics and genetic structure of Ponderosae taxa (Pinaceae) inhabiting the mountain islands of the Southwest. Am. J. Bot. 86(5):741-752.
52. Rehfeldt, G.E., N.L. Crookston, M.V. Warwell, and J.S. Evans. 2006. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. Int. J. Plant Sci. 167(6):1123-1150.
53. Rehfeldt, G.E., C.C. Ying, D.L. Spittlehouse, and D.A. Hamilton. 1999. Genetic responses to climate in Pinus contorta: Niche breadth, climate change, and reforestation. Ecol. Monogr. 69(3):375-407.
54. Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, and J.A. Pounds. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421(6918):57-60.
55. Russell, E.W.B. 1987. Pre-blight distribution of Castanea dentata (Marsh.) Borkh. Bull. Torrey Bot. Club 114(2):183-190.
56. SAS Institute Inc. 2008. The SAS System for Windows, Version 9.2. Cary, North Carolina.
57. Saxon, E., B. Baker, W. Hargrove, F. Hoffman, and C. Zganjar. 2005. Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios. Ecol. Lett. 8(1):53-60.
58. Schwartz, M.W., L.R. Iverson, A.M. Prasad, S.N. Matthews, and R.J. O'Connor. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87(7):1611-1615.
59. Sjostrom, A., and C.L. Gross. 2006. Life-history characters and phylogeny are correlated with extinction risk in the Australian angiosperms. J. Biogeogr. 33(2):271-290.
60. Smith, W.B. 2002. Forest inventory and analysis: a national inventory and monitoring program. Environ. Pollut. 116:S233-S242.
61. St. Clair, J.B., and G.T. Howe. 2007. Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates. Glob. Change Biol. 13(7):1441-1454.
62. Stenseth, N.C., A. Mysterud, G. Ottersen, J.W. Hurrell, K.S. Chan, and M. Lima. 2002. Ecological effects of climate uctuations. Science 297(5585):1292-1296.
63. Stephenson, S.L., H.S. Adams, and M.L. Lipford. 1991. The present distribution of chestnut in the upland forest communities of Virginia. Bull. Torrey Bot. Club 118(1):24-32.
64. Stork, N.E., J.A. Coddington, R.K. Colwell, R.L. Chazdon, C.W. Dick, C.A. Peres, S. Sloan, and K. Willis. 2009. Vulnerability and resilience of tropical forest species to land-use change. Conserv. Biol. 23(6):1438-1447.
65. Thomas, C.D., A. Cameron, R.E. Green, M. Bakkenes, L.J. Beaumont, Y.C. Collingham, B.F.N. Erasmus, M.F. de Siqueira, A. Grainger, L. Hannah, L. Hughes, B. Huntley, A.S. van Jaarsveld, G.F. Midgley, L. Miles, M.A. Ortega-Huerta, A.T. Peterson, O.L. Phillips, and S.E. Williams. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427(6970):145-148.
66. United States Geological Survey. 1999. Digital representation of "Atlas of United States Trees" by Elbert L. Little Jr. Available online at http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/data/atlas/little/; last accessed June 25, 2013.
67. Vitt, P., K. Havens, A.T. Kramer, D. Sollenberger, and E. Yates. 2010. Assisted migration of plants: Changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. Biol. Conserv. 143(1):18-27.
68. Warshall, P. 1995. The Madrean sky island archipelago: A planetary overview. P. 6-18 in Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago: The Sky Islands of Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico, DeBano, L.H., P.H. Ffolliott, A. Ortega-Rubio, G.J. Gottfried, R.H. Hamre, and C.B. Edminster (eds.). USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMGTR-264. 669 p.
69. Woodall, C.W., C.M. Oswalt, J.A. Westfall, C.H. Perry, M.D. Nelson, and A.O. Finley. 2009. An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States. For. Ecol. Manage. 257(5):1434-1444.
70. Woudenberg, S.W., B.L. Conkling, B.M. O'Connell, E.B. LaPoint, J.A. Turner, and K.L. Waddell. 2010. The Forest Inventory and Analysis Database: Database Description and Users Manual Version 4.0 for Phase 2. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRSGTR-245. 336 p.
71. Wu, H.X., and C.C. Ying. 2004. Geographic pattern of local optimality in natural populations of lodgepole pine. For. Ecol. Manage. 194(1-3):177-198.
72. Zhu, K., C.W. Woodall, and J.S. Clark. 2012. Failure to migrate: Lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 18(3):1042-1052.