Very early warning of next El Niño

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 111, Issue 6, 2014, Pages 2064-2066

  Ludescher, Josef ^a   Gozolchiani, Avi ^b   Bogachev, Mikhail I ^a,c   Bunde, Armin ^a   Havlin, Shlomo ^b   Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim ^d,e  

^a JUSTUS LIEBIG UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^b BAR ILAN UNIVERSITY   (Israel)

^c SAINT PETERSBURG ELECTROTECHNICAL UNIVERSITY LETI   (Russian Federation)

^d POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^e SANTA FE INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893870764     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1323058111     Document Type: Review

References (42)

1. Clarke AJ (2008) An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Niño the Southern Oscillation (Elsevier Academic Press, London).
2. Sarachik ES, Cane MA (2010) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
3. Power S, Delage F, Chung C, Kociuba G, Keay K (2013) Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability. Nature 502(7472):541-545.
4. Dijkstra HA (2005) Nonlinear Physical Oceanography: A Dynamical Systems Approach to the Large-Scale Ocean Circulation and El Niño (Springer, New York).
5. Wang C, et al. (2012) El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A review. Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific (Springer, Berlin), pp 3-19.
6. Wen C (2002) Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the cycle of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Chin J Athmos Sci 5:595-610.
7. Corral A, Ossó A, Llebot JE (2010) Scaling of tropical-cyclone dissipation. Nat Phys 6(9):693-696.
8. Donnelly JP, Woodruff JD (2007) Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon. Nature 447(7143):465-468.
9. Kovats RS, Bouma MJ, Hajat S, Worrall E, Haines A (2003) El Niño and health. Lancet 362(9394):1481-1489.
10. Davis M (2001) Late Victorian Holocaust: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World (Verso, London).
11. Cane MA, Zebiak SE, Dolan SC (1996) Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321(6073):827-832.
12. Latif M, et al. (1994) A review of ENSO prediction studies. Clim Dyn 9(4-5):167-179.
13. Tziperman E, Scher H (1997) Controlling spatiotemporal chaos in a realistic El Niño prediction model. Phys Rev Lett 79(6):1034-1037.
14. Kirtman BP, Schopf PS (1998) Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J Clim 11(11):2804-2822.
15. Landsea CW, Knaff JA (2000) How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Niño? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81(9):2107-2119.
16. Kirtman BP (2003) The COLA anomaly coupled model: Ensemble ENSO prediction. Mon Weather Rev 131(17):2324-2341.
17. Fedorov AV, Harper SL, Philander SG, Winter B, Wittenberg A (2003) How predictable is El Niño? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(7): 911-919.
18. Müller P, von Storch H (2004) Computer Modelling in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (Springer, Berlin).
19. Chen D, Cane MA, Kaplan A, Zebiak SE, Huang D (2004) Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428(6984): 733-736.
20. Palmer T, Hagedorn R (2006) Predictability of Weather and Climate (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
21. Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 21(1):84-93.
22. Yeh SW, et al. (2009) El Niño in a changing climate. Nature 461(7263):511-514.
23. Chekroun MD, Kondrashov D, Ghil M (2011) Predicting stochastic systems by noise sampling, and application to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(29):11766-11771.
24. Galanti E, Tziperman E (2003) A study of ENSO prediction using a hybrid coupled model and the adjoint method for data assimilation. Mon Weather Rev 131(11):2748-2764.
25. Chen D, Cane MA (2008) El Niño prediction and predictability. J Comput Phys 227(7):3625-3640.
26. Penland C, Sardeshmukh PD (1995) The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 8(8):1999-2024.
27. International Research Institute for Climate and Society Earth Institute. IRI/CPC ENSO Quick Look. Available at http://iri.columbia. edu/climate/ENSO/ currentinfo/QuickLook.html. Accessed November 30, 2012.
28. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostics Discussion. Available at http://www.cpc.ncep. noaa.gov/products/analysis- monitoring/enso-advisory/. Accessed November 30, 2012.
29. Webster PJ (1995) The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-athomosphere system. Meteorol Atmos Phys 56(1-2):33-55.
30. Goddard L, et al. (2001) Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions Int. J Clim 21(9):1111-1152.
31. Ludescher J, et al. (2013) Improved El Nino forecasting by cooperativity detection. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(29): 11742-11745.
32. Donges JF, Zou Y, Marwan N, Kurths J (2009) The backbone of the climate network EPL. Europhys Lett 87(4):48007.
33. Tsonis AA, Swanson KL, Roebber PJ (2006) What do networks have to do with climate? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(5):585-595.
34. Yamasaki K, Gozolchiani A, Havlin S (2008) Climate networks around the globe are significantly affected by El Niño. Phys Rev Lett 100(22):228501.
35. Gozolchiani A, Havlin S, Yamasaki K (2011) Emergence of El Niño as an autonomous component in the climate network. Phys Rev Lett 107(14):148501.
36. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
37. Foster G, Rahmstorf S (2011) Global temperature evolution 1979-2010. Environ Res Lett 6(4):044022.
38. Kosaka Y, Xie SP (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501(7467):403-407.
39. Li C, von Storch JS, Marotzke J (2013) Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response. Clim Dyn 40(5-6):1071-1086.
40. NASA GISS surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP). Available at http://www.data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. Accessed November 30, 2012.
41. Kalnay E, et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437-471.
42. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. Available at www. esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/ gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. Accessed November 30, 2012.