Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 55, Issue , 2014, Pages 132-142

  Eastaugh, C S ^a,b   Hasenauer, H ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND LIFE SCIENCES   (Austria)

^b SOUTHERN CROSS UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

BIOME BGC; Climate change regions; Fire index; Fire risk; Ignition; Risk indices; Wildfire

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893713953     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.018     Document Type: Article

References (103)

1. Alexander M.E. Computer calculation of the Keetch-Byram drought index: programmers beware!. Fire Manag. Notes 1990, 51(4):23-25.
2. Ångström A. The risks for forest fires and their relation to weather and climate. Svenka skogrårdsföreningens Tidskr. 1942, 4:18. (in Swedish).
3. Ångström A. Swedish meteorological research 1939-1948. Tellus 1949, 1(1):60-64.
4. Arndt N., Vacik H., Koch V., Arpaci A., Gossow H. Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria. iForest 2013, 6:315-325.
5. Arpaci A., Vacik H., Formayer H., Beck A. ACollection of Possible Fire Weather Indices (FWI) for Alpine Landscapes 2010, Available at:, (accessed 02.09.13.). http://meteo.montagne-vert.nl/FWIdocs/a_collection_of_possible_fwi_for_a lpine_landscapes.pdf.
6. Arpaci A., Eastaugh C.S., Vacik H. Selecting the best performing fire weather indices for Austrian Ecozones. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2013, 114:393-406.
7. Bachmann A., Allgower B. Aconsistent wildland fire risk terminology is needed!. Fire Manag. Today 2001, 61:28-33.
8. Bond W.J., Woodward F.I., Midgley G.F. The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New. Phytol. 2005, 165:525-538.
9. Botequim B., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Marques S., Ricardo A., Borges J.G., Tomé M., Oliveira M.M. Developing wildfire risk probability models for Eucalyptus globulus stands in Portugal. iForest 2013, 10.3832/ifor0821-006.
10. Bowman D.M.J.S. Understanding a flammable planet - climate, fire and global vegetation patterns. New. Phytol. 2005, 165(2):341-345.
11. Brang P., Schönenberger W., Frehner M., Schwitter R., Thormann J.J., Wasser B. Management of protection forests in the European Alps: an overview. For. Snow Landsc. Res. 2006, 80:23-44.
12. Brown T.J., Hall B.L., Westerling A.L. The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: an applications perspective. Clim. Change 2004, 62:365-388.
13. Cantwell J. Resource allocation for forest fire protection. Ir. For. 1974, 31(1):46-54.
14. Conedera M., Marxer P., Tinner W., Amman B., Hofmann C. Fire ecology and history research in the southern part of Switzerland. Int. For. Fire News 1996, 15:13-21.
15. Conedera M., Cesti G., Pezzati G.B., Zumbrunnen T., Spinedi F. Lightning-induced fires in the Alpine region: an increasing problem. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Forest Fire Research, November 27-30 2006, Coimbra, Portugal 2006, 1-9. D.X. Viegas (Ed.).
16. Crane W.J.B. Computing grassland and forest fire behaviour, relative humidity and drought index by pocket calculator. Aust. For. 1982, 45(2):89-97.
17. Eastaugh C.S., Molina D.M. Forest road networks: metrics for coverage, efficiency and convenience. Aust. For. 2011, 74(1):54-61.
18. Eastaugh C.S., Molina D.M. Forest road and fuelbreak siting with respect to reference fire intensities. For. Syst. 2012, 21(1):153-161.
19. Eastaugh C.S., Vacik H. Fire size/frequency distributions as a means of assessing wildfire database reliability. Austrian J. For. Sci. 2012, 129(3/4):228-247.
20. Eastaugh C.S., Petritsch R., Hasenauer H. Climate characteristics across the Austrian forest estate from 1960 to 2008. Austrian J. For. Sci. 2010, 127:133-146.
21. Eastaugh C.S., Pötzelsberger E., Hasenauer H. Assessing the impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) growth in Austria with BIOME-BGC. Tree Physiol. 2011, 31(3):262-274.
22. Eastaugh C.S., Arpaci A., Vacik H. Acautionary note regarding comparisons of fire danger indices. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 12:927-934.
23. Englisch M., Karrer G., Mutsch F. Österreichische Waldboden Zustandsinventur. Methodische Grundlagen. Mittteilunge. Forsticher 1992, Teil 1:5-22. Bundesversuchsansanstalt, Wien 168.
24. Engstrom R., Hope A. Parameter sensitivity of the arctic Biome-BGC model for estimating evapotranspiration in the arctic coastal plain. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 2011, 43(3):380-388.
25. Finney M.A. A. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMPSP-412 2006.
26. Flannigan M.D., Stocks B.J., Wotton B.M. Forest fires and climate change. Sci. Total Environ. 2000, 262:221-230.
27. Flannigan M.D., Amiro B.D., Logan K.A., Stocks B.J., Wotton B.M. Forest fires and climate change in the 21st Century. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Global Change 2005, 11:847-859.
28. Gabler K., Schadauer K. Methoden der Österreichischen Waldinventur 2000/02. BFW Berichte 2006, 135:132.
29. Good P., Moriondo M., Giannakopoulos C., Bindi M. The meteorological conditions associated with extreme fire risk in Italy and Greece: relevance to climate model studies. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2008, 17(2):155-165.
30. Gossow H., Hafellner R., Vacik H., Huber T. Major fire issues in the Euro-Alpine Region - the Austrian Alps. Int. For. Fire News 2009, 38:101-110.
31. Guatam S., Pietsch S.A. Carbon pools of an intact forest in Gabon. Afr. J. Ecol. 2012, 50(4):414-427.
32. Han O.F., Luo G.P., Li C.F., Ye H., Chen Y.L. Modeling grassland net primary productivity and water-use efficiency along an elevational gradient of the Northern Tianshan Mountains. J.Arid Land 2013, 5(3):354-365.
33. Hardy C.C. Wildland fire hazard and risk: problems, definitions, and context. For. Ecol. Manag. 2005, 211:73-82.
34. Hasenauer H., Nemani R.R., Schadauer K., Running S.W. Forest growth response to changing climate between 1961 and 1990 in Austria. For. Ecol. Manag. 1999, 122:209-219.
35. Hasenauer H., Merganicova K., Petritsch R., Pietsch S.A., Thornton P.E. Validating daily climate interpolations over complex terrain in Austria. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2003, 119:87-107.
36. Hatton T.J., Viney N.R., Catchpole E.A., DeMestre N.J. The influence of soil moisture on Eucalyptus leaf litter moisture. For. Sci. 1988, 34(2):292-301.
37. Hidy D., Barcza Z., Haszpra L., Churkina G., Pintér K., Nagy Z. Development of the Biome-BGC model for simulation of managed herbaceous ecosystems. Ecol. Model. 2012, 226:99-119.
38. Holsten A., Dominic A.R., Costa L., Kropp J.P. Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states. For. Ecol. Manag. 2013, 287:123-131.
39. Huber M.O., Eastaugh C.S., Gschwantner T., Hasenauer H., Kindermann G., Ledermann T., Lexer M.J., Rammer W., Schörghuber S., Sterba H. Comparing simulations of three conceptually different forest models with National Forest Inventory data. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 40:88-97.
40. Ichii K., Hashimoto H., White M.A., Potter C., Hutyra L.R., Huete A.R., Myneni R.B., Nemani R.R. Constraining rooting depths in tropical rainforests using satellite data and ecosystem modeling for accurate simulation of GPP seasonality. Glob. Change Biol. 2007, 13:67-77.
41. IPCC Climate Change 1992: the Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment 1992, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander, S.K. Varney (Eds.).
42. Janis M.J., Johnson M.B., Forthun G. Near-real time mapping of Keetch-Byram frought index in the south-eastern United States. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2002, 11:281-289.
43. Käse H. Ein Vorschlag für eine Methode zur Bestimmung und Vorhersage der Waldbrandgefährdung mit Hilfe komplexer Kennziffern 1969, 68. Akademie Verlag, Berlin.
44. Keane R.E., Arno S.F., Brown J.K. FIRESUM - an Ecological Process Model for Fire Succession in Western Conifer Forests 1989, 76. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experimental Station, Ogden, Utah, Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-266.
45. Keane R.E., Ryan K.C., Running S.W. Simulating the effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC. Tree Physiol. 1996, 16:319-331.
46. Keane R.E., Loehman R.A., Holsinger L.M. The FireBGCv2 Landscape Fire Succession Model: a Research Simulation Platform for Exploring Fire and Vegetation Dynamics 2011, 137. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-255.
47. Keetch J.J., Byram G.M. ADrought Index for Forest Fire Control 1968, 32. Research Paper SE-38, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Asheville, North Carolina, (revised November 1988).
48. Kimball J.S., Running S.W., Nemani R. An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature. Agric. For. Meteorol. 1997, 85(1-2):87-98.
49. Kimball J.S., White M.A., Running S.W. BIOME-BGC simulations of stand hydrologic processes for BOREAS. J.Geophys. Res. 1997, 102(D24):29,043-29,051.
50. Krawchuk M.A., Moritz M.A., Parisien M.A., Van Dorn J., Hayhoe K. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS One 2009, 4(4):e5102.
51. Lenihan J.M., Daly C., Bachelet D., Neilson R.P. Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model. Northwest Sci. 1998, 72:91-103.
52. Luo Z., Sun O.J., Wang E., Ren H., Xu H. Modeling productivity in mangrove forests as impacted by effective soil water availability and its sensitivity to climate change using Biome-BGC. Ecosystems 2010, 13(7):949-965.
53. Lynch A.H., Beringer J., Kershaw P., Marshall A., Mooney S., Tapper N., Turney C., Van Der Kaars S. Using the Paleorecord to evaluate climate and fire interactions in Australia. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2007, 35:215-239.
54. Malevskii-Malevich S.P., Mol'kentin E.K., Nadezhina E.D., Semioshina A.A., Sall I.A., Khlebnikova E.I., Shklyarevich O.B. Analysis of changes in fire-hazard conditions in the forests in Russia in the 20th and 21st centuries on the basis of climate modeling. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 2007, 32(3):154-161.
55. McCarthy G.J., Tolhurst K.G., Wouters M. Prediction of Firefighting Resources for Suppression Operations in Victoria's Parks and Forests 2003, 31. DSE Research Report No. 56, Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria.
56. McRae D.J., Conard S.G., Ivanova G.A., Sukhinin A.I., Baker S.P., Samsonov Y.N., Blanke T.W., Ivanov V.A., Ivanov A.V., Churkina T.V., Hao W.M., Koutzenogi K.P., Kovalev N. Variability of fire behaviour, fire effects, and emissions in scotch pine forests of central Siberia. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Global Change 2006, 11:45-74.
57. Meyer G.A., Pierce J.L. Climatic controls on fire-induced sediment pulses in Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho: a long-term perspective. For. Ecol. Manag. 2003, 178:89-104.
58. Müller M.M., Vacik H., Diendorfer G., Arpaci A., Formayer H., Gossow H. Analysis of lightening induced forest fires in Austria. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2013, 111(1/2):183-193.
59. Nelson R.M. Water relations of forest fuels. Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects 2001, 79-149. Academic Press, London, UK. E.A. Johnson, K. Miyanishi (Eds.).
60. Nemani R., Keeling C.D., Hashimoto H., Jolly W.M., Piper S.C. Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 2003, 300(5625):1560-1563.
61. Nesterov V.G. Flammability of the Forest and Methods of its Determination 1949, 76. USSR State Industry Press, Moscow, (in Russian).
62. Newlands N.K., Espino-Hernández G., Erickson R.S. Understanding crop response to climate variability with complex agroecosystem models. Int. J. Ecol. 2012, 13. Article ID 756242.
63. Ormeño E., Céspedes B., Sánchez I.A., Velasco-García A., Moreno J.M., Fernandez C., Baldy V. The relationship between terpenes and flammability of leaf litter. For. Ecol. Manag. 2009, 257:471-482.
64. Pausas J.G., Paula S. Fuel shapes the fire-climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21(11):1074-1082.
65. Pedersen L.B., Bille-Hansen J. Acomparison of litterfall and element fluxes in even aged Norway spruce, sitka spruce and beech stands in Denmark. For. Ecol. Manag. 1999, 114:55-70.
66. Peng H., Jia Y.W., Qiu Y.Q., Niu C.W. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2013, 58(3):651-670.
67. Petritsch R. Large Scale Mechanistic Ecosystem Modeling in Austria 2008, 135. (Ph.D. thesis), University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna.
68. Petritsch R., Hasenauer H. Interpolating input parameters for large scale ecosystem models. Austrian J. For. Sci. 2007, 124:135-151.
69. Petritsch R., Hasenauer H. Climate input parameters for real-time online risk assessment. Nat. Hazards 2014, 70(3):1749-1762.
70. Phillips O.L., Malhi Y., Higuchi N., Laurance W.F., Nunez P.V., Vasquez R.M., Laurance S.G., Ferreira L.V., Stern M., Brown S., Grace J. Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: evidence from long-term plots. Science 1998, 282(5388):439-442.
71. Pietsch S.A., Hasenauer H. Evaluating the self-initialization procedure for large-scale ecosystem models. Glob. Change Biol. 2006, 12:1658-1669.
72. Pietsch S.A., Hasenauer H., Kucera J., Cermák J. Modeling effects of hydrological changes on the carbon and nitrogen balance of oak in floodplains. Tree Physiol. 2003, 23(11):735-746.
73. Pietsch S.A., Hasenauer H., Thornton P.E. BGC-model parameters for tree species growing in central European forests. For. Ecol. Manag. 2005, 211:264-295.
74. Pitman A.J., Narisma G.T., McAneney J. The impact of climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires in Australia. Clim. Change 2007, 84:383-401.
75. Prestemon J.P., Donovan G.H. Forecasting resource allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2008, 90(4):1118-1129.
76. Quadt V., van der Maaten-Theunissen M., Frank G. Integration of Nature Protection in Austrian Forest Policy 2013, INTEGRATE Country Report for Austria, EFICENT-OEF, Freiburg.
77. Running S.W., Coughlan J.C. Ageneral model of forest ecosystem processes for regional applications. I. Hydrologic balance, canopy gas exchange and primary production processes. Ecol. Model. 1988, 42:125-154.
78. Sass O., Heel M., Hoinkis R., Wetzel K.F. Asix-year record of debris transport by avalanches on a wildfire slope (Arnspitze, Tyrol). Z.für Geomorphol. 2010, 54(2):181-193.
79. Sass O., Haas F., Schimmer C., Heel M., Bremer M., Stöger F., Wetzel K.F. Impact of forest fires on geomorphic processes in the Tyrolean Limestone Alps. Geogr. Ann. 2012, 94(1):117-133.
80. Sass O., Heel M., Leistner I., Stöger F., Wetzel K.F., Friedmann A. Disturbance, geomorphic processes and recovery of wildfire slopes in North Tyrol. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 2012, 37(8):883-894.
81. Schneider P., Roberts D.A., Kyriakidis P.C. AVARI-based relative greenness from MODIS data for computing the Fire Potential Index. Remote Sens. Environ. 2008, 112:1151-1167.
82. Schumacher S. The Role of Large-scale Disturbances and Climate for the Dynamics of the Landscape in European Alps 2004, 141. PhD-thesis ETHZ no. 15573, Zurich.
83. Sharples J.J., Mills G.A., McRae R.H.D., Weber R.O. Foehn-like winds and elevated fire danger conditions in Southeastern Australia. J.Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2010, 49(6):1067-1095.
84. Skvarenina J., Mindas J., Holecy J., Tucek J. Analysis of the natural and meteorological conditions during two largest forest fire events in the Slovak Paradise National Park. Forest Fire in the Wildland-Urban Interface and Rural Areas in Europe: An Integral Planning and Management Challenge 15-16 May 2003, 29-36. Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, Athens, Greece.
85. Tanskanen H., Venäläinen A. The relationship between fire activity and fire weather indices at different stages of the growing season in Finland. Boreal Environ. Res. 2008, 13:285-302.
86. Taylor A.H., Beaty R.M. Climatic influences on fire regimes in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada, USA. J.Biogeogr. 2005, 32:425-438.
87. Thompson M.P., Calkin D.E., Finney M.A., Gebert K.M., Hand M.S. Arisk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning. For. Sci. 2013, 59(1):63-77.
88. Thornton P.E. Description of a Numerical Simulation Model for Predicting the Dynamics of Energy, Water Carbon and Nitrogen in a Terrestrial Ecosystem 1998, 280. (PhD thesis), University of Montana, Missoula, USA.
89. Thornton P.E., Running S.W., White M.A. Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J.Hydrol. 1997, 190:214-251.
90. Thornton P.E., Hasenauer H., White M.A. Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2000, 104:255-271.
91. Thornton P.E., Law B.E., Gholz H.L., Clark K.L., Falge E., Ellsworth D.S., Goldstein A.H., Monson R.K., Hollinger D., Falk M., Chen J., Sparks J.P. Modeling and measuring the effects of disturbance history and climate on carbon and water budgets in evergreen needleleaf forests. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2002, 113:185-222.
92. Ueyama M., Ichii K., Hirata R., Takagi K., Asanuma J., Machimura T., Nakai Y., Ohta T., Saigusa N., Takahashi Y., Hirano T. Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data. Biogeosciences 2010, 7:959-977.
93. Vacik H., Arndt N., Arpaci A., Koch V., Müller M., Gossow H. Characterisation of forest fires in Austria. Austrian J. For. Sci. 2011, 128(1):1-31.
94. Valese E. Wildland fires in the Alpine region of Italy: what's old, what's new? What's next?. Int. For. Fire News 2009, 38:97-101.
95. Valese E., Beck A., Comini B., Conedera M., Cvenkel H., Di Narda N., Ghiringhelli A., Japelj A., Lemessi A., Mangiavillano A., Pelfini F., Pelosini R., Ryser D., Vacik H., Wastl C. The Alpine Forest Fire Warning System (ALP FFIRS) Project. VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research, Coimbra, Portugal 15-18 November 2010 2010.
96. Valese E., Conedera M., Vacik H., Japelj A., Beck A., Cocca G., Cvenkel H., Di Narda N., Ghiringhelli A., Lemessi A., Mangiavillano A., Pelfini F., Pelosini R., Ryser D., Wastl C. Wildfires in the Alpine Region: First Results from the ALP FFIRS Project. 5th International Wildland Fire Conference 9-13 May 2011, Sun City South Africa 2011, Online at:, (accessed 02.09.13.). http://www.wsl.ch/info/mitarbeitende/conedera/download/Valese_et_al_2011 .
97. Van Wagner C.E. Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index 1987, Canadian Forest Service Forestry Technical Report 35.
98. 2. Ecohydrology 2011, 4:196-210.
99. Wastl C., Schunk C., Leuchner M., Pezzatti G.B., Menzel A. Recent climate change: long-term trends in meteorological forest fire danger in the Alps. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2012, 162/163:1-13.
100. Whitlock C., Shafer S., Marlon J. The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management. For. Ecol. Manag. 2003, 178:5-21.
101. Wotton B.M. Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 2009, 16:107-131.
102. Zhao F.,-J., Shu L.F., Wang Q.-H. Terpenoid emissions from heated needles of Pinus sylvestris and their potential influences on forest fires. Acta Ecol. Sin. 2012, 32:33-37.
103. Zumbrunnen T., Burmann H., Conedera M., Bürgi M. Linking Forest fire regimes and Climate-a historical analysis in a dry inner Alpine Valley. Ecosystems 2009, 12:73-86.