A multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on the distribution and productivity of ecosystems in China

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 133-144

  Wang, H ^a  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

China; Climate change; CO2 elevation; Crops; Net primary production; Vegetation distribution

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893701568     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0469-8     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Batima P, Brander K, Erda L, Howden M, Kirilenko A, Morton J, Soussana J-Fo, Tubiello F (2007) Food Fiber, and forest products. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, v adLPJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 274-313.
2. Bernacchi CJ (2003) In vivo temperature response functions of parameters required to model RuBP-limited photosynthesis. Plant Cell Environ 26: 1419-1430.
3. Bonan GB (1993) Physiological derivation of the observed relationship between net primary production and mean annual air temperature. Tellus B 45: 397-408.
4. 2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Change Biol 7: 357-373.
5. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332: 53-58.
6. Del Grosso S, Parton W, Stohlgren T, Zheng D, Bachelet D, Prince S, Hibbard K, Olson R (2008) Global potential net primary production predicted from vegetation class, precipitation, and temperature. Ecology 89: 2117-2126.
7. Denman KL, Brasseur G, Chidthaisong A, Ciacis P, Cox PM, Hauglustaine D, Heinze C, Holland E, Jacob D, Lohmann U, Ramachandran S, Da Silva Dias PL, Wofsy SC, Zhang X (2007) Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp 499-587.
8. Dewar RC (1996) The correlation between plant growth and intercepted radiation: an interpretation in terms of optimal plant nitrogen content. Ann Bot 78: 125-136.
9. Fang J, Piao S, Field CB, Pan Y, Guo Q, Zhou L, Peng C, Tao S (2003) Increasing net primary production in China from 1982 to 1999. Front Ecol Environ 1: 293-297.
10. Farr T, Rosen P, Garo E, Crippen R, Duren R, Hensley S, Kobrick M, Paller M, Rodriguez E, Roth L, Seal D, Shaffer S, Shimada J, Umland J, Wener M, Oskin M, Burbank D, Alsdorf D (2007) The shuttle radar topography mission. Rev Geophys 45: RG2004.
11. Field CB, Randerson JT, Malmström CM (1995) Global net primary production: combining ecology and remote sensing. Remote Sens Environ 51: 74-88.
12. Fischlin A, Midgley GF, Price JT, Leemans R, Gopal B, Turley C, Rounsevell MDA, Dube OP, Tarazona J, Velichko AA (2007) Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, v adLPJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 212-272.
13. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler KG, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver AJ, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. J Clim 19: 3337-3353.
14. Gallego-Sala AV, Prentice IC (2012) Blanket peat biome endangered by climate change. Nature Clim Change. doi: 10. 1038/nclimate1672.
15. Gallego-Sala AV, Clark JM, House JI, Orr HG, Prentice IC, Smith P, Farewell T, Chapman SJ (2010) Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. Clim Res 45: 151-162.
16. Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Haberlandt U, Lucht W, Sitch S (2004) Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. J Hydrol 286: 249-270.
17. Gobron N, Pinty B, Taberner M, Mélin F, Verstraete M, Widlowski J (2006) Monitoring the photosynthetic activity of vegetation from remote sensing data. Adv Space Res 38: 2196-2202.
18. 2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modeling and palaeoclimate simulations. Glob Change Biol 9: 983-1004.
19. Haxeltine A, Prentice IC (1996a) BIOME3: an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochem Cycles 10: 693-709.
20. Haxeltine A, Prentice IC (1996b) A general model for the light-use efficiency of primary production. Funct Ecol 10: 551-561.
21. Kaplan JO (2001) Geophysical applications of vegetation modelling. Lund University, Lund, Doctoral dissertation.
22. Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Matveyeva NV, McGuire AD, Murray DF, Razzhivin VY, Smith B, Walker DA, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AV (2003) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J Geophysic Res-Atmosphe 108: 8171.
23. Klein JA, Harte J, Zhao X-Q (2004) Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Lett 12: 1170-1179.
24. Li Y, Wang C (2010) Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China. Adv Clim Change Res 6: 123-129.
25. Lieth H (1975) Modeling the Primary Productivity of the World. In: Lieth H, Whittaker RH (eds) Primary Productivity of the Biosphere. Springer, Berlin, pp 237-263.
26. Luo T (1996) Patterns of net primary productivity for Chinese major forest types and their mathematical models. Doctoral dissertation, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
27. Maire V, Martre P, Kattge J, Fo Gastal, Esser G, Sb Fontaine, J-Fo Soussana (2012) The coordination of leaf photosynthesis links C and N fluxes in C3 plant species. PLoS One 7: e38345.
28. McMahon SM, Harrison SP, Armbruster WS, Bartlein PJ, Beale CM, Edwards ME, Kattge J, Midgley G, Morin X, Prentice IC (2011) Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity. Trends Ecol Evol 26: 249-259.
29. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp 748-845.
30. Mitchell TD, Osborn TJC (2005) ClimGen: a flexible tool for generating monthly climate data sets and scenarios. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper.
31. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 55.
32. Nakicenovic N, Davidson O, Davis G, Grübler A, Kram T, Rovere ELL, Metz B, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Sankovski A, Shukla P, Swart R, Watson R, Dadi Z (2000) Emissions scenarios: a special report of IPCC Working Group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
33. National Development and Reform Commission P. R. C. (2012) China's policies and actions for addressing climate change.
34. Ni J, Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W (2000) Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 9: 463-479.
35. Piao S, Fang J, Ji W, Guo Q, Ke J, Tao S, Woods K (2004) Variation in a satellite-based vegetation index in relation to climate in China. J Veg Sci 15: 219-226.
36. Piao S, Fang J, Zhou L, Zhu B, Tan K, Tao S (2005) Changes in vegetation net primary productivity from 1982 to 1999 in China. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 19: GB2027.
37. Potter CS, Randerson JT, Field CB, Matson PA, Vitousek PM, Mooney HA, Klooster SA (1993) Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satellite and surface data. Global Biogeochem Cycles 7: 811-841.
38. Prentice IC (2001) Interactions of climate change and the terrestrial biosphere. In: Bengtsson L, Hammer CU (eds) Geosphere-Biosphere interactions and climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 176-195.
39. Prentice IC, Cowling SA (2013) Dynamic global vegetation models. In: Levin SA (ed) Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, 2nd ed, vol 2. Academic Press, pp. 607-689.
40. Prentice IC, Cramer W, Harrison SP, Leemans R, Monserud RA, Solomon AM (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J Biogeogr 19: 117-134.
41. Prentice IC, Sykes MT, Cramer W (1993) A simulation-model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes. Ecol Model 65: 51-70.
42. Prentice IC, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Harrison S, Hickler T, Lucht W, Sitch S, Smith B, Sykes M (2007) Dynamic global vegetation modeling: quantifying terrestrial ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change. In: Canadell J, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds) Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world. Global change the IGBP series. Springer, Berlin, pp 175-192.
43. Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ (2011a) Global vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle changes after the last ice age. New Phytol 189: 988-998.
44. 2 drawdown along an aridity gradient. New Phytol 190: 169-180.
45. Prentice IC, Baines PG, Scholze M, Wooster MJ (2012) Fundamentals of climate change science. In: Prentice C, House J, Downy C (eds) Cornell S. Global Change Science for Application. Cambridge University Press, Understanding the Earth System, pp 39-71.
46. Ramaswamy V, Boucher O, Haigh J, Hauglustaine D, Haywood J, Myhre G, Nakajima T, Shi GY, Solomon S (2001) Radiative forcing of climate change. In: Joos F, Srinivasan J (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp 69-139.
47. Schmittner A, Urban NM, Shakun JD, Mahowald NM, Clark PU, Bartlein PJ, Mix AC, Rosell-Melé A (2011) Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the last glacial maximum. Science 334: 1385-1388.
48. Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW, Prentice IC (2006) A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103: 13116-13120.
49. Shi L, Zhao S, Tang Z, Fang J (2011) The changes in China's forests: an analysis using the forest identity. PLoS One 6: e20778.
50. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes M (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Change Biol 9: 161-185.
51. Sitch S, Cox P, Collins W, Huntingford C (2007) Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink. Nature 448: 791-794.
52. Sitch S, Huntingford C, Gedney N, Levy PE, Lomas M, Piao SL, Betts R, Ciais P, Cox P, Friedlingstein P, Jones CD, Prentice IC, Woodward FI (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Glob Change Biol 14: 2015-2039.
53. Specht RL (1972) Water use by perennial evergreen plant communities in australia and papua new-guinea. Aust J Bot 20: 273-299.
54. Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W (1996) A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J Biogeogr 23: 203-233.
55. Tang GP, Beckage B (2010) Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change. Divers Distrib 16: 144-158.
56. Tanner CB (1963) Plant temperature. Agronomy J 55: 210-211.
57. Wang GX, Li Q, Cheng GD, Shen Y-P (2001) Climate change and Its Impact on the Eco-environment in the source regions of the Yangtze and yellow rivers in recent 40 years. J Glaciol Geocryol 23: 346-352.
58. 2. Reg Environ Change 11: 715-727.
59. Wang H, Prentice IC, Ni J (2012a) Data-based modelling and environmental sensitivity of vegetation in China. Biogeosci Discuss 9: 1-33.
60. Wang H, Prentice IC, Ni J (2012b) Primary production in forests and grasslands of China: contrasting environmental response of light- and water-use efficiency models. Biogeosciences 9: 4689-4705.
61. Woodward FI, Lomas MR (2004) Vegetation dynamics-simulating responses to climatic change. Biol Rev 79: 643-670.