Am i right when i am sure? Data consistency influences the relationship between diagnostic accuracy and certainty

Academic Medicine

Volumn 89, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 107-113

  Cavalcanti, Rodrigo B ^a   Sibbald, Matthew ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY HEALTH NETWORK   (Canada)

^b TORONTO WESTERN HOSPITAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893641916     PISSN: 10402446     EISSN: 1938808X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000000074     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Koriat A. The self-consistency model of subjective confidence. Psychol Rev. 2012;119:80-113.
2. Lau H, Maniscalco B. Neuroscience. Should confidence be trusted? Science. 2010;329:1478-1479.
3. Friedman CP, Gatti GG, Franz TM, et al. Do physicians know when their diagnoses are correct? Implications for decision support and error reduction. J Gen Intern Med. 2005;20:334-339.
4. Podbregar M, Voga G, Krivec B, Skale R, Pareznik R, Gabrscek L. Should we confirm our clinical diagnostic certainty by autopsies? Intensive Care Med. 2001;27:1750-1755.
5. Berner ES, Graber ML. Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine. Am J Med. 2008;121(5 suppl):S2-S23.
6. Griffin D, Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cogn Psychol. 1992;24:411-435.
7. Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U, Kleinbölting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychol Rev. 1991;98: 506-528.
8. Tversky A, Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science. 1974;185:1124-1131.
9. Koriat A. Subjective confidence in one's answers: The consensuality principle. J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2008;34:945-959.
10. Kahneman D, Tversky A. On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychol Rev. 1996;103:582-591.
11. Yang H, Thompson C, Bland M. The effect of clinical experience, judgment task difficulty and time pressure on nurses' confidence calibration in a high fidelity clinical simulation. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2012;12:113.
12. Stern ER, Gonzalez R, Welsh RC, Taylor SF. Updating beliefs for a decision: Neural correlates of uncertainty and underconfidence. J Neurosci. 2010;30: 8032-8041.
13. Dinsmore DL, Parkinson MM. What are confidence judgments made of? Students' explanations for their confidence ratings and what that means for calibration. Learn Instr. 2013;24:4-14.
14. Sibbald M, Cavalcanti RB. The biasing effect of clinical history on physical examination diagnostic accuracy. Med Educ. 2011;45: 827-834.
15. Sibbald M, Panisko D, Cavalcanti RB. Role of clinical context in residents' physical examination diagnostic accuracy. Med Educ. 2011;45:415-421.
16. Croskerry P, Norman G. Overconfidence in clinical decision making. Am J Med. 2008;121(5 suppl):S24-S29.
17. Croskerry P. A universal model of diagnostic reasoning. Acad Med. 2009;84:1022-1028.
18. Juslin P, Olsson H. Thurstonian and Brunswikian origins of uncertainty in judgment: A sampling model of confidence in sensory discrimination. Psychol Rev. 1997;104:344-366.
19. Olsson H, Winman A. Underconfidence in sensory discrimination: The interaction between experimental setting and response strategies. Percept Psychophys. 1996;58:374-382.
20. Sibbald M, McKinney J, Cavalcanti RB, et al. Cardiac examination and the effect of dualprocessing instruction in a cardiopulmonary simulator. Adv Health Sci Educ Theory Pract. 2013;18:497-508.
21. Graber M, Gordon R, Franklin N. Reducing diagnostic errors in medicine: What's the goal? Acad Med. 2002;77:981-992.