Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 12, 2013, Pages

  Baumuratova, Tatiana ^a,b   Dobre, Simona ^c   Bastogne, Thierry ^d,e,f   Sauter, Thomas ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LUXEMBOURG   (Luxembourg)

^b INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS OF BIOLOGY   (Russian Federation)

^c FRENCH GERMAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF SAINT LOUIS   (France)

^d UNIVERSITÉ DE LORRAINE   (France)

^e CENTRE DE RECHERCHE EN AUTOMATIQUE DE NANCY   (France)

^f INRIA   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; COMPUTER ANALYSIS; COMPUTER PREDICTION; DATA ANALYSIS SOFTWARE; DYNAMICAL GLOBAL PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; LINEAR SYSTEM; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONLINEAR SYSTEM; PROCESS DEVELOPMENT; SYSTEM ANALYSIS;

EID: 84893384007     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0082973     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, et al. (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105: 1786-1793. (Pubitemid 351439417)
2. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.
3. Scheffer M (2010) Foreseeing tipping points. Nature 467: 411-412.
4. Drake JM, Griffen BD (2010) Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467: 456-459.
5. Veraart AJ, Faassen EJ, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Lürling M, et al. (2012) Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system. Nature 481: 357-359.
6. Carpenter SR, Cole JJ, Pace ML, Batt R, Brock WA, et al. (2011) Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science (New York, NY) 332: 1079-1082.
7. Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science (New York, NY) 334: 232-235.
8. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2011) Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach Reports. Ecology 92: 2196-2201.
9. Lade SJ, Gross T (2012) Early warning signals for critical transitions: a generalized modeling approach. PLoS computational biology 8: e1002360.
10. Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Philosophical transactions Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 370: 1185-1204.
11. Chen L, Liu R, Liu Z-P, Li M, Aihara K (2012) Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers. Scientific Reports 2: 342.
12. Boettiger C, Hastings A (2012) Quantifying limits to detection of early warnings for critical transitions. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface/the Royal Society.
13. Kambhu J, Weidman S, Krishnan N (2007) New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk.
14. May RM, Levin SA, Sugihara G (2008) NEWS & VIEWS Ecology for bankers. 451: 893-895.
15. Brock WA (2004) Tipping Points, Abrupt Opinion Changes, and Punctuated Policy Change by.
16. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-596. (Pubitemid 32964052)
17. Venegas J, Winkler T, Musch G (2005) Self-organized patchiness in asthma as a prelude to catastrophic shifts. Nature 434.
18. Litt B, Esteller R, Echauz J, D'Alessandro M, Shor R, et al. (2001) Epileptic seizures may begin hours in advance of clinical onset: a report of five patients. Neuron 30: 51-64. (Pubitemid 32441676)
19. McSharry PE, Smith LA, Tarassenko L (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature medicine 9: 241-2; author reply 242.
20. Wissel C (1984) A universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds. Oecologia 65: 101-107.
21. Held H, Kleinen T (2004) Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 1-4. (Pubitemid 40482430)
22. Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, et al. (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105: 14308-14312.
23. Livina VN, Lenton TM (2007) A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 1-5.
24. Kleinen T, Held H, Petschel-Held G (2003) The potential role of spectral properties in detecting thresholds in the Earth system: application to the thermohaline circulation. Ocean Dynamics 53: 53-63. (Pubitemid 36770241)
25. Ditlevsen PD, Johnsen SJ (2010) Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking. Geophysical Research Letters 37: 1-10.
26. Biggs R, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2009) Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106: 826-831.
27. Schmidt H, Jirstrand M (2006) Systems Biology Toolbox for MATLAB: a computational platform for research in systems biology. Bioinformatics (Oxford, England) 22: 514-515. (Pubitemid 43231434)
28. Rodriguez-Fernandez M, Banga JR (2010) SensSB: a software toolbox for the development and sensitivity analysis of systems biology models. Bioinformatics (Oxford, England) 26: 1675-1676.
29. Lebedeva G, Sorokin A, Faratian D, Mullen P, Goltsov A, et al. (2012) Model-based global sensitivity analysis as applied to identification of anti-cancer drug targets and biomarkers of drug resistance in the ErbB2/3 network. European journal of pharmaceutical sciences: official journal of the European Federation for Pharmaceutical Sciences 46: 244-258.
30. Maeda S, Omata M (2008) Inflammation and cancer: role of nuclear factorkappaB activation. Cancer science 99: 836-842. (Pubitemid 352002583)
31. Fomekong-Nanfack Y, Postma M, Kaandorp JA (2009) Inferring Drosophila Gap Gene Regulatory Network: a Parameter Sensitivity and Perturbation Analysis. BMC Systems Biology 3: 94.
32. Shin SY, Choo SM, Woo SH, Cho KH (2008) Cardiac Systems Biology and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis: Intracellular Ca 2+ Regulatory Mechanisms in Mouse Ventricular Myocytes: 25-45. doi:10.1007/10.
33. Zheng Y, Rundell A (2006) Comparative study of parameter sensitivity analyses of the TCR-activated Erk-MAPK signalling pathway. Systems Biology, IEE Proceedings, 153(4):201-211, 2006. doi:10.1049/ip-syb.
34. Kontoravdi C, Asprey SP, Pistikopoulos EN, Mantalaris A (2005) Application of global sensitivity analysis to determine goals for design of experiments: an example study on antibody-producing cell cultures. Biotechnology progress 21: 1128-1135. (Pubitemid 41102248)
35. Dobre S, Bastogne T, Profeta C, Barberi-heyob M, Richard A (2012) Limits of variance-based sensitivity analysis for non- identifiability testing in high dimensional dynamic models. Automatica, 48(11):2740-2749, 2012.
36. Sobol' IM (2001) Global sensitivity indices for non-linear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 55: 271-280.
37. Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, et al. (2008) Global Sensitivity Analysis. The Primer.
38. Saltelli A, Tarantola S, Chan P-S (1999) A Quantitative Model-independent Method for Global Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output. Technometrics 41: 39-56.
39. Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H (1994) Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Models of Disease Transmission: an HIV Model, as an Example. International Statistical Review 62: 229-243.
40. Bentele M, Lavrik I, Ulrich M, Stösser S, Heermann DW, et al. (2004) Mathematical modeling reveals threshold mechanism in CD95-induced apoptosis. The Journal of cell biology 166: 839-851. (Pubitemid 39249835)
41. Huang S, Guo Y-P, May G, Enver T (2007) Bifurcation dynamics in lineagecommitment in bipotent progenitor cells. Developmental biology 305: 695-713.
42. van Voorn G A K, Kooi BW, Boer MP (2010) Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models. Mathematical biosciences 226: 120-133.
43. Letellier C, Aziz-Alaoui MA (2002) Analysis of the dynamics of a realistic ecological model. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 13: 95-107. (Pubitemid 32736991)
44. Eissing T, Conzelmann H, Gilles ED, Allgöwer F, Bullinger E, et al. (2004) Bistability analyses of a caspase activation model for receptor-induced apoptosis. The Journal of biological chemistry 279: 36892-36897. (Pubitemid 39129038)
45. Valeyev NV, Hundhausen C, Umezawa Y, Kotov NV, Williams G, et al. (2010) A systems model for immune cell interactions unravels the mechanism of inflammation in human skin. PLoS computational biology 6: e1001024.
46. Gardner TS, Cantor CR, Collins JJ (2000) Construction of a genetic toggle switch in Escherichia coli. Nature 403: 339-342. (Pubitemid 30062394)
47. Savill J, Fadok V (2000) Corpse clearance defines the meaning of cell death. Nature 407: 784-788.
48. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, et al. (2012)Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PloS ONE 7: e41010.