Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS models

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Volumn 118, Issue 12, 2013, Pages 6165-6182

  Kumazawa, Takao ^a   Ogata, Yosihiko ^a,b  

^a INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS   (Japan)

^b INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE   (Japan)

Author keywords

Bayesian modeling; fault strength; induced seismic activity; nonstationary ETAS model; seismicity anomalies; Tohoku Oki earthquake

Indexed keywords

AFTERSHOCK; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE SWARM; EPIDEMIOLOGY; INDUCED SEISMICITY; MODEL TEST; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; SEISMICITY; TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE 2011; TRIGGER MECHANISM;

EID: 84892545472     PISSN: 21699313     EISSN: 21699356     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2013JB010259     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Akaike, H., (1980a), Likelihood and the Bayes procedure (with discussion), Bayesian Statistics, edited by, J. M. Bernardo, et al., pp. 143-203, University Press, Valencia, Spain.
2. Akaike, H., (1980b), On the use of the predictive likelihood of a Gaussian model, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 32 (1), 311-324. [Available at http://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/aism/pdf/032-3-0311.pdf].
3. Dewey, J. W., (1976), Seismicity of northern Anatolia, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 66 (3), 843-868.
4. Dieterich, J., (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99 (B2), 2601-2618. (Pubitemid 24425347)
5. Dieterich, J., V. Cayol, and, P. Okubo, (2000), The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano, Nature, 408 (6811), 457-460, doi: 10.1038/35044054.
6. Du, Y., and, A. Aydin, (1993), Stress transfer during three sequential moderate earthquakes along the central Calaveras Fault, California, J. Geophys. Res., 98 (B6), 9947-9962. (Pubitemid 23394194)
7. Enescu, B., S. Aoi, S. Toda, W. Suzuki, K. Obara, K. Shiomi, and, T. Takeda, (2012), Stress perturbations and seismic response associated with the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in and around the Tokai seismic gap, central Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L00G28, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051839.
8. Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (2011), Crustal movements in the Tohoku district, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 88, pp. 184-272, http://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/report/kaihou86/03- 34.pdf (in Japanese).
9. Gomberg, J., and, P. Johnson, (2005), Seismology: Dynamic triggering of earthquakes, Nature, 437 (7060), 830, doi: 10.1038/437830a. (Pubitemid 41486751)
10. Good, I. J., and, Gaskins R. A., (1971), Nonparametric roughness penalties for probability densities. Biometrika 58, 255-277.
11. Hainzl, S., and, Y. Ogata, (2005), Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S07, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003247.
12. Hainzl, S., O. Zakharova, and, D. Marsan, (2013), Impact of aseismic transients on the estimation of aftershock productivity parameters, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103 (3), 1723-1732, doi: 10.1785/0120120247.
13. Harris, R. A., and, R. W. Simpson, (1996), In the shadow of 1857-The effect of the Great Ft. Tejon Earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23 (3), 229-232.
14. Harris, R. A., and, R. W. Simpson, (1998), Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure, J. Geophys. Res., 103 (B10), 24,439-24,451.
15. Harris, R. A., R. W. Simpson, and, P. A. Reasenberg, (1995), Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California, Nature, 375, 221-224. (Pubitemid 26464803)
16. Hashimoto, C., K. Fukui, and, M. Matsu'ura, (2004), 3-D modeling of plate interfaces and numerical simulation of long-term crustal deformation in and around Japan, Pure Appl. Geophys., 161, 2053-2068. (Pubitemid 39174549)
17. Hirose, F., J. Nakajima, and, A. Hasegawa, (2008), A three-dimensional velocity structure and configuration of the Philippine Sea slab beneath Kanto district, central Japan, estimated by double-difference tomography, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn, 60, 123-138.
18. Hirose, F., K. Miyaoka, N. Hayashimoto, T. Yamazaki, and, M. Nakamura, (2011), Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)- seismicity: Foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and induced activity, Earth Planets Space, 63, 513-518.
19. Holtkamp, S. G., and, M. R. Brudzinski, (2011), Earthquake swarms in circum-Pacific subduction zones, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 305 (1-2), 215-225.
20. Japan Metrological Agency (JMA) (2013), The Annual Seismological and Volcanological Bulletin of Japan for 2012, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo.
21. Kato, T., K. Ricky, and, K. Kasahara, (1987), Mechanical interaction between neighboring active fault-An application to the Atera fault, central Japan, Tectonophysics 144 (1), 181-188.
22. King, G. C. P., R. S. Stein, and, J. Lin, (1994), Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84 (3), 935-953.
23. Kodaka, (1985), Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predic., 33, 269.
24. w = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B10312, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007567.
25. Lei, X., G. Yu, S. Ma, X. Wen, and, Q. Wang, (2008), Earthquakes induced by water injection at ~ 3 km depth within the Rongchang gas field, Chongqing, China, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B10310, doi: 10.1029/2008JB005604.
26. w9. 3 Sumatra earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B08303, doi: 10.1029/2011JB008245.
27. Llenos, A. L., J. J. McGuire, and, Y. Ogata, (2009), Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 281 (1), 59-69, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011.
28. Lohman, R. B., and, J. J. McGuire, (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi: 10.1029/2006JB004596.
29. Lombardi, A. M., M. Cocco, and, W. Marzocchi, (2010), On the increase of background seismicity rate during the 1997-1998 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, sequence: Apparent variation or fluid-driven triggering?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100 (3), 1138-1152.
30. Marsan, D., E. Prono, and, A. Helmstetter, (2013), Monitoring aseismic forcing in fault zones using earthquake time series, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103 (1), 169-179, doi: 10.1785/0120110304.
31. Naito, H., and, S. Yoshikawa, (1996), A program to assist crustal deformation analysis, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn, 52, 101-103.
32. Nur, A., and, J. R. Booker, (1972), Aftershocks caused by pore fluid-flow?, Science, 175 (4024), 885-887.
33. Ogata, Y., (1978), The asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimate of the stationary point processes, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 30, 243-261.
34. Ogata, Y., (1986), Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Math. Seismolog., 1, 228-281.
35. Ogata, Y., (1988), Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83 (407), 9-27.
36. Ogata, Y., (1989), Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Tectonophysics, 169 (1), 159-174.
37. Ogata, Y., (1992), Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, J. Geophys. Res., 97 (B13), 19,845-19,871.
38. Ogata, Y., (1999), Seismicity analysis through point-process modeling: A review, Pure Appl. Geophys., 155 (2-4), 471-507.
39. Ogata, Y., (2001), Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, J. Appl. Probab., 38A, 202-212.
40. Ogata, Y., (2004a), Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B03308, doi: 10.1029/2003JB002621.
41. Ogata, Y., (2004b), Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B04305, doi: 10.1029/2003JB002634.
42. Ogata, Y., (2005), Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S06, doi: 10.1029/2004JB003245.
43. Ogata, Y., (2006a), Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01303, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024405.
44. Ogata, Y., (2006b), Fortran Programs Statistical Analysis of Seismicity-updated Version (SASeis2006), Computer Science Monograph, No. 33, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. [Available at http://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/csm/index-j.html].
45. Ogata, Y., (2007), Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B10301, doi: 10.1029/2006JB004697.
46. Ogata, Y., (2010a), Space-time heterogeneity in aftershock activity, Geophys. J. Int., 181 (3), 1575-1592, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04542.x.
47. Ogata, Y., (2010b), Anomalies of seismic activity and transient crustal deformations preceding the 2005 M7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka, Pure Appl. Geophys., 167, 1115-1127, doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0096-y.
48. Ogata, Y., (2011a), Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth Planets Space, 63 (3), 217-229, doi: 10.5047/eps.2010.09.001.
49. Ogata, Y., (2011b). Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, Geophys. J. Int., 186 (1), 331-348, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05033.x.
50. Ogata, Y., (2012a), Long-term probability forecast of the regional seismicity that was induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Rep. Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 88, pp. 92-99. [Available at http://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/report/kaihou88/03-02.pdf].
51. Ogata, Y., (2012b), Retrospective analysis of the long-term prediction of seismic activities that are induced by the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 89, pp. 278-281. [Available at http://cais.gsi.go.jp/YOCHIREN/report/kaihou89/08-02.pdf].
52. Ogata, Y., and, K. Katsura, (1986), Point-process models with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes (Papers in Honour of E.J. Hannan), J. Appl. Probab., 23A, edited by, J. Gani, and, M. B. Priestley, pp. 291-310, Applied Probability Trust, School of Mathematics and Statistics Univ. of Sheffield, Sheffield, U. K.
53. Ogata, Y., and, K. Katsura, (1993), Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 113 (3), 727-738. (Pubitemid 23394210)
54. Ogata, Y., and, S. Toda, (2010), Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal fault the 2007 great earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B06318, doi: 10.1029/2009JB006777.
55. Ogata, Y., L. M. Jones, and, S. Toda, (2003a), When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (B6), 2318, doi: 10.1029/2002JB002009.
56. Ogata, Y., K. Katsura, and, M. Tanemura, (2003b), Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. C, 52 (4), 499-509. (Pubitemid 37311626)
57. Okutani, T., and, S. Ide, (2011), Statistic analysis of swarm activities around the Boso peninsula, Japan: Slow slip events beneath Tokyo Bay?, Earth Planets Space, 63 (5), 419-426, doi: 10.5047/eps.2011.02.010.
58. Ozawa S., H. Suito, and, M. Tobita, (2007), Occurrence of quasi-periodic slow-slip off the east coast of the Boso peninsula, central Japan, Earth Planets Space, 59 (12), 1241-1245.
59. Page, R., (1968), Aftershocks and microaftershocks, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58 (3), 1131-1168.
60. Reasenberg, P., (1985), Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-82, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 5479-5495.
61. Reasenberg, P. A., and, R. W. Simpson, (1992), Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake, Science, 255 (5052), 1687-1690.
62. Rybicki, K., (1973), Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocation theory, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 7 (4), 409-422.
63. Rybicki, K., T. Kato, and, K. Kasahara, (1985), Mechanical interaction between neighboring active faults: Static and dynamic stress field induced by faulting, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, 60, 1-21. (Pubitemid 16635275)
64. Segall, P., E. K. Desmarais, D. Shelly, A. Miklius, and, P. Cervelli, (2006), Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, Nature, 442, 71-74, doi: 10.1038/nature04938. (Pubitemid 44064210)
65. Sibson, R. H., (2007), An episode of fault-valve behavior during compressional inversion? The 2004 M(J) 6.8 Mid-Niigata Prefecture, Japan, earthquake sequence, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 257, 188-199. (Pubitemid 46593739)
66. Simpson, R. W., and, P. A. Reasenberg, (1994), Earthquake-induced static-stress changes on central California faults, in The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989-Tectonic Processes and Models, edited by, R. W. Simpson, U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 1550-F, pp. F55-F89, U.S. Geol. Surv.
67. Smith, S. W., and, W. Van de Lindt, (1969), Strain adjustments associated with earthquakes in southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 59 (4), 1569.
68. Stein, R. S., (1999), The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605-609.
69. Terakawa, T., and, M. Matsu'ura, (2010), The 3-D tectonic stress fields in and around Japan inverted from centroid moment tensor data of seismic events, Tectonics, 29, TC6008, doi: 10.1029/2009TC002626.
70. Terakawa, T., C. Hashimoto, and, M. Matsu'ura, (2013), Changes in seismic activity following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Effects of pore fluid pressure, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 365, 17-24.
71. Toda, S., and, R. S. Stein, (2002), Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (B12), 2567, doi: 10.1029/2003JB002527.
72. Toda, S., R. S. Stein, and, T. Sagiya, (2002), Evidence from the A.D. 2000 Izu Islands swarm that seismicity is governed by stressing rate, Nature, 419, 58-61. (Pubitemid 34987868)
73. Toda, S., L. Lian, and, S. Ross, (2011a), Using the 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure, Earth Planets Space, 63, 725-730.
74. Toda, S., R. S. Stein, and, L. Jian, (2011b), Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation in terms of Coulomb stress transfer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L00G03, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047834.
75. Toda, S., R. S. Stein, G. C. Beroza, and, D. Marsan, (2012), Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows, Nat. Geosci., 5, 410-413.
76. Touati, S., M. Naylor, I. G. Main, and, M. Christie, (2011), Masking of earthquake triggering behavior by a high background rate and implications for epidemic-type aftershock sequence inversions, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B03304, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007544.
77. Tsuruoka, H., (1996), Development of Seismicity Analysis Software on Workstation (in Japanese), Tech. Res. Rep. 2, pp. 34-42, Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo.
78. Utsu, T., (2001), Seismology, 3rd ed., Kyoritsu Shuppan Co., Tokyo, Japan (in Japanese).
79. Utsu, T., Y. Ogata, and, R. S. Matsu'ura, (1995), The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn, 7, 233-240.
80. Yamashina, K., (1978), Induced earthquakes in the Izu peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of 1974, Japan, Tectonophysics, 51 (3), 139-154. (Pubitemid 9410829)
81. Yamashina, K., (1979), A possible factor which triggers shallow intra-plate earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 18 (2), 153-164.
82. Yoshioka, S., and, M. Hashimoto, (1989), The stress field induced from the occurrence of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, and their relation to impending earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 56 (3), 349-370.