On the increase of background seismicity rate during the 1997-1998 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, sequence: Apparent variation or fluid-driven triggering?

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 100, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 1138-1152

  Lombardi, Anna Maria ^a   Cocco, Massimo ^a   Marzocchi, Warner ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CENTRAL ITALY; CHANGE-POINTS; EPIDEMIC-TYPE AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES; FLUID FLOW; KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TEST; MAIN SHOCK; NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL TESTS; NORTHERN APENNINES; OBSERVED DATA; POISSON HYPOTHESIS; PORE-PRESSURE RELAXATION; POROELASTIC; SEISMIC SEQUENCE; SEISMICITY PATTERN; STRESS FIELD; STUDY AREAS; TEMPORAL EVOLUTION; TIME EVOLUTIONS; TIME INTERVAL; TRANSIENT PERTURBATION;

LIBRARIES; SEISMOLOGY; STATISTICAL TESTS;

FLOW OF FLUIDS;

AFTERSHOCK; COSEISMIC PROCESS; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE TRIGGER; FORESHOCK; SEISMICITY; STRESS FIELD; TEMPORAL EVOLUTION;

APENNINES; ITALY; UMBRIA-MARCHE BASIN;

DELLA;

EID: 77952634153     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120090077     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Antonioli, A., M. E. Belardinelli, and M. Cocco (2004). Modeling dynamic stress changes caused by an extended rupture in an elastic stratified half-space, Geophys. J. Int. 157, no. 1, 229-244.
2. Antonioli, A., D. Piccinini, L. Chiaraluce, and M. Cocco (2005). Fluid flow and seismicity pattern: Evidence from the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L10311, doi 10.1029/2004GL022256.
3. Castello, B., G. Selvaggi, C. Chiarabba, and A. Amato (2005). CSI Catalogo della sismicità italiana1981-2002, vers. 1.0, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Rome, www.ingv.it/CSI/ (in Italian).
4. Castello, B., M. Olivieri, and G. Selvaggi (2007). Local and duration mag-nitude determination for the Italian Earthquake Catalog, 1981-2002, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97, 128-139.
5. Catalli, F., M. Cocco, R. Console, and L. Chiaraluce (2008). Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model, J. Geophys. Res. 113, doi 10.1029/2007JB005356.
6. Chiaraluce, L., A. Amato, M. Cocco, C. Chiarabba, G. Selvaggi, M. Di Bona, D. Piccinini, A. Deschamps, L. Margheriti, F. Courboulex, and M. Ripepe (2004). Complex normal faulting in the Apennines thrust-and-fold belt: The 1997 seismic sequence in central Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, no. 1, 99-116.
7. Chiaraluce, L., W. L. Ellsworth, C. Chiarabba, and M. Cocco (2003). Imaging the complexity of an active normal fault system: The 1997 Colfiorito (central Italy) case study, J. Geophys. Res. 108, no. B6, 2294, doi 10.1029/2002JB002166.
8. Chiodini, G., F. Frondini, C. Cardellini, and L. Peruzzi (2000). Rate of diffuse carbon dioxide earth degassing estimated from carbon balance of regional aquifers: The case of central Apennine, Italy, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 8423-8434.
9. Cinti, F. R., L. Cucci, F. Marra, and P. Montone (1999). The 1997 Umbria Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence: Relationship between ground deformation and seismogenic structure, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, no. 7, 895-898.
10. Cocco, M., C. Nostro, and G. Ekstrom (2000). Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence, J. Seismol. 4, no. 4, 501-516.
11. Console, R., M. Murru, and A. M. Lombardi (2003). Refining earthquake clustering models, J. Geophys. Res. 108, no. B10, 2468, doi 10.1029/2002JB002130.
12. Daley, D. J., and D. Vere-Jones (2003).An Introduction to the Theoryof Point Processes, Second Ed., Vol. 1, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 469.
13. Dieterich, J. H. (1992). Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate- and state-dependent strength, Tectonophysics 211, 115-134.
14. Dieterich, J. H. (1994). A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Gephys. Res. 99, no. 18, 2601-2618.
15. Draper, N. R., and H. Smith (1981). Applied Regression Analysis, Second Ed., Wiley, New York, p. 709.
16. Felzer, K. R., R. E. Abercrombie, and G. Ekström (2003). Secondary after-shocks and their importance for aftershock prediction, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 1433-1448.
17. Freed, A. M. (2005). Earthquake triggering by static, dynamic, and postseismic stress transfer, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 335-367.
18. Gerstenberger, M. C., S. Wiemer, L. M. Jones, and P. A. Reasenberg (2005). Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California, Nature 435,328-331.
19. Gibbons, J. D., and S. Chakraborti (2003). Non-parametric Statistical Inference, Fourth Ed., revised and expanded, Marcel Dekker, New York, 645 pp.
20. Gomberg, J., and P. Jonhson (2005). Dynamic triggering of earthquakes, Nature 437, 830, doi 10.1038/nature04167.
21. Gomberg, J., P. Reasenberg, N. Beeler, M. Cocco, and M. E. Belardinelli (2005). A frictional population model of seismicity rate change, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S03, doi 10.1029/2004JB003404.
22. Hainzl, S., and Y. Ogata (2005). Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S07, doi 10.1029/2004JB003247.
23. Hainzl, S., E. Enescu, M. Cocco, J. Woessner, C. Catalli, R. Wang, and F. Roth (2009). Forecasting aftershock seismicity Part II: Aftershock modeling based on uncertain stress calculations, J. Geophys. Res. 114, B05309, doi 10.1029/2008JB006011.
24. Harris, R. (1998). Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard, J. Geophys. Res. 103, no. B10, 24,347-24,358.
25. Helmstetter, A., and D. Sornette (2002). Subcritical and supercritical regimes in epidemic models of earthquake aftershocks, J. Geophys. Res. 107, no. B10, 2237, doi 10.1029/2001JB001580.
26. Helmstetter, A., and D. Sornette (2003). Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the ETAS model of seismicity, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, no. 11, doi 10.1029/2003GL017670.
27. Helmstetter, A., and B. E. Shaw (2009). Afterslip and aftershocks in the rate-and-state friction law, J. Geophys. Res. 114, B01308, doi 10.1029/2007JB005077.
28. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson (2005). Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfer and earthquake triggering, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S08, doi 10.1029/2004JB003286.
29. Hill, D. P., P. A. Reseanberg, A. Michael, W. J. Arabaz, G. Beroza, D. Brum-baugh, J. N. Brune, R. Castro, S. Davis, D. de Polo, W. L. Ellsworth, J. Gomberg, S. Harmsen, L. House, S. M. Jackson, M. J. S. Johnston, L. Jones, R. Keller, S. Malone, L. Munguia, S. Nava, J. C. Pechmann, A. Sanford, R. W. Simpson, R. B. Smith, M. Stark, M. Stickney, A. Vidal, S. Walter, V. Wong, and J. Zollweg (1993). Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 Landers, California, earth-quake, Science 260, 1617-1623.
30. Hsu, Y. J., M. Simons, J. P. Avouac, J. Galetzka, K. Sieh, M. Chlieh, D. Natawidjaja, L. Prawirodirdjo, and Y. Bock (2006). Frictional after-slip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake Sumatra, Science 312,1921-1926, doi 10.1126/science.1126960.
31. Hunstad, I., M. Anzidei, M. Cocco, P. Baldi, A. Galvani, and A. Pesci (1999). Modeling coseismic displacements during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake (central Italy), Geophys. J. Int. 139, 283-295.
32. Hurvich, C. M., and C.-L. Tsai (1989). Regression and time series model selection in small samples, Biometrika 76, 297-307.
33. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 438-453.
34. Kilb, D., J. Gomberg, and P. Bodin (2000). Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses, Nature 408, 570-574.
35. King, G.C.P., and M.Cocco (2000).Faultinteractionbyelasticstresschanges: New clues from earthquake sequences, Adv. Geophys. 44, 1-38.
36. King, G. C. P., R. S. Stein, and J. Lin (1994). Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 935-953.
37. Kisslinger, C., and L. M. Jones (1991). Properties of aftershocks in southern California, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 11947-11958.
38. Llenos, A. L., J. J. McGuire, and Y. Ogata (2009). Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transient, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 281, 59-69.
39. Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2007). Evidence of clustering and nonstationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 112, B02303, doi 10.1029/2006JB004568.
40. Lombardi, A. M., W. Marzocchi, and J. Selva (2006). Exploring the evolution of a volcanic seismic swarm: The case of the 2000 Izu Islands swarm, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L07310, doi 10.1029/2005GL025157.
41. Manga, M., and C.-Y. Wang (2007). Earthquake hydrology, in Treatise on Geophysics, G. Schubert (Editor), Vol. 4, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 293-320.
42. Marone, C. J., C. H. Scholz, and R. Bilham (1991). On the mechanics of earthquake afterslip, J. Geophys. Res. 96, no. B5, 8441-8452.
43. Marzocchi, W. (2008). Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales, Ann. Geophys. 51, 87-98.
44. Marzocchi, W., and A. M. Lombardi (2008). A double branching model for earthquake occurrence, J. Geophys. Res. 113, B08317, doi 10.1029/2007JB005472.
45. Miller, S. A., C. Collettini, L. Chiaraluce, M. Cocco, M. Barchi, and B. J. P. Kaus (2004). Aftershocks driven by a high-pressure CO2 source at depth, Nature 427, 724-727.
46. Mogi, K. (1967). Earthquakes and fractures, Tectonophysics 5, 35-55.
47. Mulargia, F., and S. Tinti (1985). Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: An application to the Italian territory, Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 40, 273-300.
48. Nostro, C., L. Chiaraluce, M. Cocco, D. Baumont, and O. Scotti (2005). Coulomb stress changes caused by repeated normal faulting earth-quakes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence, J. Geophys. Res. 110, (B05S20). doi 10.1029/2004JB003386.
49. Nur, A., and J. R. Booker (1972). Aftershocks caused by pore fluid flow?, Science 175, 885-887.
50. Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83, no. 401, 9-27.
51. Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, J. Geophys. Res. 97, 19,845-19,871.
52. Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 50, no. 2, 379-402.
53. Ogata, Y. (2005a). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, J. Geophys. Res. 110, no. B5, B05S06. doi 10.1029/2004JB003245.
54. Ogata, Y. (2005b). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M 8.0, J. Geophys. Res. 110, no. B5, B08305, doi 10.1029/2004JB003323.
55. Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M 7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, no. 1, L01303, doi 10.1029/2005GL024405.
56. Ogata, Y., and J. Zhuang (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophys. 413, 13-23.
57. Piccinini, D., L. Margheriti, L. Chiaraluce, and M. Cocco (2006). Space and time variation of crustal anisotropy during the 1997 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, seismic sequence, Geophys. J. Int. 167, 1482-1490, doi 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03112.x.
58. Piersanti, A., G. Spada, R. Sabadini, and M. Bonafede (1995). Global post-seismic deformation, Geophys. J. Int. 120, 544-566.
59. Pollitz, F. F. (1992). Postseismic relaxation theory on the spherical Earth, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 82, 422-453.
60. Pollitz, F. F., R. Burgmann, and P. Segall (1998). Joint estimation of afterslip rate and postseismic relaxation following the 1989 Loma Prieta earth-quake, J. Geophys. Res. 103, no. B11, 26,975-26,992.
61. Riva, E. M., A. Borghi, A. Aoudia, R. Barzaghi, R. Sabadini, and G. F. Panza (2007). Viscoelastic relaxation and long-lasting after-slip following the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 169, no. 2, 534-546.
62. Shapiro, S. A., P. Audigane, and J. J. Royer (1999). Large-scale in situ permeability tensor of rocks from induced microseismicity, Geophys. J. Int. 137, 207-213.
63. Shapiro, S. A., R. Patzig, E. Rothert, and J. Rindshwentner (2003). Triggering of seismicity by pore-pressure perturbations: Permeability-related signature of the phenomenon, Pure Appl. Geophys. 160, 1051-1066.
64. Sornette, D., and M. J. Werner (2005). Apparent clustering and apparent background earthquakes biased by undetected seismicity, J.Geophys. Res. 110, B09303, doi 10.1029/2005JB003621.
65. Steacy, S., J. Gomberg, and M. Cocco (2005). Introduction to special section: stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S01, doi 10.1029/2005JB003692.
66. Stein, R. S. (1999). The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature 402, 605-609.
67. Toda, S., and R. S. Stein (2003). Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res. 109, no. B12, 2567, doi 10.1029/2003JB002527.
68. w 6:9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24543-24565.
69. Toda, S., R. S. Stein, K. Richards-Dinger, and S. B. Bozkurt (2005). Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built ion earthquakes stress transfer, J.Geophys. Res. 110, B05S16. doi 10.1029/2004JB003415.
70. Utsu, T., and A. Seki (1955). Relation between the area of aftershock region and the energy of the main shock, Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan) 2nd Ser., ii, no. 7, 233-240 (in Japanese).
71. Utsu, T., Y. Ogata, and R. S. Matsu'ura (1995). The centenary of the Omori formulafor adecay lawof aftershocks activity, J. Phys. Earth.43,1-33.
72. Wennerberg, L., and R. V. Sharp (1997). Bulk-friction modeling of afterslip and the modified Omori law, Tectonophys. 277, 109-136.
73. Wiemer, S. (2001). A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP, Seism. Res. Lett. 72, 373-382.
74. Wiemer, S., and M. Wyss (2000). Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 859-869.
75. Wiemer, S., and M.Wyss (2002). Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, Adv. Geophys. 45, 259-302.
76. Wössner, J., and S. Wiemer (2005). Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 684-698.
77. Zhuang, J., C. P. Chang, Y. Ogata, and Y. I. Chen (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B05S18, doi 10.1029/2004JB003157.
78. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata, and D. Vere-Jones (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrence, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 97, 369-380.
79. Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata, and D. Vere-Jones (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, J. Geophys. Res. 109, no. B5, B05301, doi 10.1029/2003JB002879.
80. Zuniga, F. R., and S. Wiemer (1999). Seismicity patterns: Are they always related to natural causes?, Pure Appl. Geophys. 155, 713-726.