Space-time heterogeneity in aftershock activity

Geophysical Journal International

Volumn 181, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 1575-1592

  Ogata, Yosihiko ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS   (Japan)

Author keywords

Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Rheology and friction of fault zones; Seismicity and tectonics; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

AFTERSHOCK; COULOMB CRITERION; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FAULT SLIP; FAULT ZONE; FOCAL MECHANISM; FRICTION; HETEROGENEITY; RHEOLOGY; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; TECTONIC SETTING;

JAPAN;

EID: 77954078067     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04542.x     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Abe K. Source model and characteristics of a small tsunami-on the Tsunami accompanying the largest aftershock (June 21, 1983) of Japan Sea earthquake. J. Seismol. Soc. Japan (Zisin, 2nd Ser.) 1987, 40:349-363.
2. Abe K. Source mechanism of the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki Earthquake. Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction 1994, 51:63-66.
3. Akaike H. A new look at the Bayes procedure. Biometrika 1998, 65:53-59.
4. Aki K. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 1965, 43:237-239.
5. Baba T, Cummis P, Hori T, Townend J, Uhira K. A consolidated data set for focal mechanism determination for earthquake in SW Japan: toward regional principal stress version. 2002, S041-P013. (in Japanese with English summary)
6. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. 2009, http://www.cseptesting.org/, CSEP
7. Dieterich J. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering. J. geophys. Res. 1994, 99:2601-2618.
8. Dieterich J, Cayol V, Okubo PG. The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano. Nature 2000, 408:457-460.
9. Crustal Movements in the Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu Districts. 2001, 66:486-512. Geophysical Survey Institute,
10. Crustal movement in the Hokkaido District. 2004, 71:135-187. Geophysical Survey Institute,
11. Crustal movement in the Hokkaido District. 2005, 74:53-68. Geophysical Survey Institute,
12. Crustal movement in the Tohoku District. 2006, 77:80-91. Geophysical Survey Institute,
13. Crustal movement in the Hokkaido District. 2007, 78:91-111. Geophysical Survey Institute,
14. Crustal Movements in the Hokuriku and Chubu District. 2008, 79:403-477. Geophysical Survey Institute,
15. Gerstenberger Matthew, C, Wiemer Stefan, Jones Lucile M, Reasenberg Paul A. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California. Nature 2005, 435:328-331. 10.1038/nature03622, doi
16. Good IJ, Gaskins RA. Nonparametric roughness penalties for probability densities. Biometrika 1971, 58:255-277.
17. Green PJ, Sibson R. Computing Dirichlet tessellation in the plane. Comput. J. 1978, 21:168-173.
18. Gutenberg B, Richter CF. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 1944, 34:185-188.
19. Harris RA. Introduction to special section: stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard. J. geophys. Res. 1998, 103:24 347-24 358.
20. Harris RA, Simpson RW. In the shadow of 1857-the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1996, 23(3):229-232.
21. Harris RA, Simpson RW. Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure. J. geophys. Res. 1998, 103:24 439-24 451.
22. Hikima K, Koketsu K. Source processes of the foreshock, mainshock and largest aftershock in the 2003 Miyagi-ken Hokubu, Japan earthquake sequence. Earth, Planets Space 2004, 56:95-102.
23. Horikawa H. Source process of the 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki Earthquake. 1995, 53:71-76.
24. Horikawa H. Earthquake doublet in Kagoshima, Japan: rupture of asperities in a stress shadow. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 2001, 91:112-127.
25. Iinuma T. Aseismic slow slip on an inland active fault triggered by a nearby shallow event, the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (Mw6.8). Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L20308. 10.1029/2009GL040063, doi
26. 1982, Japan Meteorological Agency, The Seismological Bulletin of JMA, Supplement 6, Catalog of Major Earthquakes in and near Japan, 1926-1960, 109 pp
27. The Annual Seismological Bulletin of Japan for 2006. 2007, Japan Meteorological Agency
28. The Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake in 2007: Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. 2008, 79:372-396. Japan Meteorological Agency, (in Japanese)
29. Kagan YY. Short-term properties of earthquake catalogs and models of earthquake source. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 2005, 94:1207-1228.
30. Kanamori H, Astiz L. The Akita-Oki earthquake (Mw = 7.8) and its implications for systematics of subduction earthquakes. Earthq. Pred. Res. 1985, 3:305-317.
31. Kikuchi M, Kanamori H. The Shikotan earthquake of October 4, 1994: lithospheric earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1995, 22:1025-1028.
32. King GCP, Stein RS, Lin J. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 1994, 84:935-953.
33. Llenos AL, MacGuire JJ, Ogata Y. Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients. Earth planet. Sci. Lett. 2009, 281:59-69.
34. Matsu'ura RS, Karakama I, Tsumura K. List of Earthquakes in the Kanto Area and its Vicinity 1988, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
35. Matsu'ura RS, Hirata N, Urabe S. Quasi-real-time watch of the aftershock activity change of Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake: prediction of Jan. 25 23h 16m M4.7 aftershock: Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. 1995, 54:600-6007. (in Japanese)
36. Miura S, Iinuma T, Yui S, Uchida N, Sato T, Tachibana K, Hasegawa A. Co- and post-seismic slip associated with the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake (M.7.2) as inferred from GPS data. Earth, Planets Space 2006, 58:1567-1572.
37. Naito H, Yoshikawa S. A program to assist crustal deformation analysis. Zisin ii (J. Seismol. Soc. Japan) 1996, 52:101-103. (in Japanese)
38. 2007, http://www.fnet.bosai.go.jp/top.php?LANG=en, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), F-net mechanism solution
39. Ogata Y. On Lewis' simulation method for point processes. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 1981, 27:23-31.
40. Ogata Y. Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure. J. Phys. Earth. 1983, 31:115-124.
41. Ogata Y. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1988, 83:9-27.
42. Ogata Y. Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 1998, 50:379-402.
43. Ogata Y. Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence. J. geophys. Res. 2001, 106:8729-8744.
44. Ogata Y. Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes. J. geophys. Res. 2004a, 109(B3):B03308. 10.1029/2003JB002621, doi
45. Ogata Y. Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough. J. geophys. Res. 2004b, 109(B3):B04305. 10.1029/2003JB002634, doi
46. Ogata Y. Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor. J. geophys. Res. 2005a, 110(B5):B05S06. 10.1029/2004JB003245, doi
47. Ogata Y. Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland. Chikyu Mon. 2005b, 28(7):470-474. in Japanese
48. Ogata Y. Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland. 2005c, 74:83-88.
49. Ogata Y. Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow covering the aftershock area. 2005d, 74:529-535. (in Japanese)
50. Ogata Y. Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting. 2005e, 73:666-669. (in Japanese)
51. Ogata Y. Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006a, 33:L01303. 10.1029/2005GL024405, doi
52. Ogata Y. Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes. 2006b, 76:590-597. (in Japanese)
53. Ogata Y. Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan. J. geophys. Res. 2007, 112:B10301. 10.1029/2006JB004697, doi
54. Ogata Y. On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake of M6.8: preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock activity: Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. 2008, 79:345-352. (in Japanese)
55. Ogata Y. Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8. 2009, No. 1109, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa, Tokyo
56. Ogata Y, Katsura K. Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33(10):L10305. 10.1029/2006GL025888, doi
57. Ogata Y, Shimazaki K. Transition from aftershock to normal activity: the 1965 Rat Islands earthquake aftershock sequence. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 1984, 74:1757-1765.
58. Ogata Y, Toda S. Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: on- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer-rise normal fault the 2007 great earthquake. J. geophys. Res. 2010
59. Ogata Y, Jones LM, Toda S. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California. J. geophys. Res. 2003a, 108(B6):2318. 10.1029/2002JB002009, doi
60. Ogata Y, Katsura K, Tanemura M. Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis. Appl. Stat. (JRSSC) 2003b, 52((4):499-509.
61. Ohta Y, Mohzono M, Miura S, Iinuma T, Tachibana K, Takatsuka K, Miyao K, Sato T, Umino N. Coseismic fault model of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake detected by a dense GPS network. Earth Planets Space 2008, 60:1197-1201.
62. Okada T, Yaginuma T, Umino N, Kono T, Matsuzawa T, Kita S, Hasegawa A. The 2005 M7.2 MIYAGI-OKI earthquake, NE Japan: possible rerupturing of one of asperities that caused the previous M7.4 earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32. 10.1029/2005GL024613, doi
63. Okada Y. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 1992, 82:1018-1040.
64. Omori F. On after-shocks of earthquakes. J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo 1894, 7:111-200.
65. Reasenberg P, Jones LM. Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California. Science 1989, 243:1173-1176.
66. Reasenberg PA, Simpson RW. Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake. Science 1992, 255:1687-1690.
67. Shimazaki K, Somerville P. Static and dynamic parameters of the Izu-Oshima, Japan earthquake of January 14. Bull. Am. Seismol. Soc. 1979, 69:1343-1378.
68. Stein RS, Barka AA, Dieterich JH. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. J. geophys. Res. 1997, 128:594-604.
69. Toda S, Matsumura S. Spatio-temporal stress states estimated from seismicity rate changes in Tokai region, central Japan. Tectonophysics 2006, 417:53-68.
70. Toda S, Stein R. Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: a demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer. J. geophys. Res. 2003, 108. 10.1029/2003jb002527, doi
71. Toda S, Stein RS, Reasenberg PA, Dieterich JH, Yoshida A. Stress transferred by the Mw=6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. J. geophys. Res. 1998, 103:24 543-24 565.
72. Tsuruoka H. Development of seismicity analysis software on workstation (in Japanese). Tech. Res. Rep., Earthquake Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo 1996, 2:34-42.
73. Uchida N, Yui S, Miura S, Matsuzawa T, Hasegawa A, Motoya Y, Kasahara M. Quasi-static slip on the plate boundary associated with the 2003 M8.0 Tokachi-oki and 2004 M7.1 off-Kushiro earthquakes. Gondwana Res. 2009, 16:527-533.
74. Ueno H. The improvement for precise earthquake location determined by Japan Meteorological Agency (Part. 3). Japan Earth Planet. Sci. Jt. Mee. 2002 2002, S041-P018.
75. Utsu T. Magnitude of earthquakes and occurrence of their aftershocks. J. Seismol. Soc. Japan (Zis 2nd Ser.) 1957, 10:35-45.
76. Utsu T. A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys. Mag. 1961, 30:521-605.
77. Utsu T. A method for determining the value of b in a formula log n=a - bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes. Geophys. Bull. Hokkaido Univ. 1965, 13:99-103.
78. Utsu T. Aftershocks and earthquake statistics (II): further investigation of aftershocks and other earthquakes sequence based on a new classification of earthquake sequences. J. Faculty Sci., Hokkaido Univ., Ser. VII 1970, 3:379-441.
79. Utsu T, Ogata Y, Matsu'ura R. The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. J. Phys. Earth. 1995, 43:1-33.
80. Yamanaka Y. The 6th December earthquake of Ms6.9 off the coast of Kushiro, EIC Seismological Note, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo. 2004, http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sanchu/Seismo_Note/2004/EIC159.html