Beyond the species-area relationship: Improving macroecological extinction estimates

Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Volumn 5, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 1-8

  Kitzes, Justin ^a   Harte, John ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Abundance; Climate change; Habitat loss; Macroecology; Population; Risk; Spatial; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

EID: 84892463312     PISSN: None     EISSN: 2041210X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12130     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Akçakaya, H.R. (2004) Species Conservation and Management: Case Studies, Volume 1. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
2. Bailey, N.T.J. (1964) The Elements of Stochastic Processes. JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd, New York, NY.
3. Ball, I., Possingham, H. & Watts, M. (2009) Marxan and relatives: software for spatial conservation prioritisation. Spatial Conservation Prioritisation: Quantitative Methods and Computational Tools (eds A. Moilanen, K. Wilson & H. Possingham ), pp. 185-195. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
4. Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. (2002) Population Viability Analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
5. Chave, J. & Leigh, E.G. (2002) A spatially explicit neutral model of-diversity in tropical forests. Theoretical Population Biology, 62, 153-168.
6. Coleman, B.D. (1981) On random placement and species-area relations. Mathematical Biosciences, 54, 191-215.
7. Conlisk, E., Bloxham, M., Conlisk, J., Enquist, B. & Harte, J. (2007) A new class of models of spatial distribution. Ecological Monographs, 77, 269-284.
8. Conlisk, J., Conlisk, E., Kassim, A.R., Billick, I. & Harte, J. (2012) The shape of a species' spatial abundance distribution. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 1167-1178.
9. Dengler, J. (2009) Which function describes the species-area relationship best? A review and empirical evaluation. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 728-744.
10. Desmet, P. & Cowling, R. (2004) Using the species-area relationship to set baseline targets for conservation. Ecology and Society, 9, 11.
11. Drakare, S., Lennon, J.J. & Hillebrand, H. (2006) The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships. Ecology Letters, 9, 215-227.
12. Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A. et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
13. Fernández, M. & Williams, S. (2010) Closed-form expression for the poisson-binomial probability density function. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 46, 803-817.
14. Fisher, R.A., Corbet, A.S. & Williams, C.B. (1943) The relation between the number of species and the number of individuals in a random sample of an animal population. Journal of Animal Ecology, 12, 42-58.
15. Flather, C.H., Hayward, G.D., Beissinger, S.R. & Stephens, P.A. (2011) Minimum viable populations: is there a 'magic number' for conservation practitioners? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26, 307-316.
16. Franklin, J. (2010) Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
17. Gaston, K.J., Blackburn, T.M. & Klein Goldewijk, K. (2003) Habitat conversion and global avian biodiversity loss. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 270, 1293-1300.
18. Green, J.L. & Plotkin, J.B. (2007) A statistical theory for sampling species abundances. Ecology Letters, 10, 1037-1045.
19. Haegeman, B. & Etienne, R.S. (2010) Entropy maximization and the spatial distribution of species. The American Naturalist, 175, E74-E90.
20. Halley, J.M. & Iwasa, Y. (2010) Neutral theory as a predictor of avifaunal extinctions after habitat loss. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2316-2321.
21. Harte, J. (2011) Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution, and Energetics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
22. Harte, J. & Kinzig, A.P. (1997) On the implications of species-area relationships for endemism, spatial turnover, and food web patterns. Oikos, 80, 417-427.
23. Harte, J. & Kitzes, J. (2012) The use and misuse of species-area relationships in predicting climate-driven extinction. Saving a Million Species: Extinction Risk from Climate Change (ed. L. Hannah ), pp. 73-86. Island Press, Washington, DC.
24. Harte, J., Zillio, T., Conlisk, E. & Smith, A. (2008) Maximum entropy and the state variable approach to macroecology. Ecology, 89, 2700-2711.
25. Harte, J., Smith, A.B. & Storch, D. (2009) Biodiversity scales from plots to biomes with a universal species-area curve. Ecology Letters, 12, 789-797.
26. He, F. & Hubbell, S.P. (2011) Species-area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss. Nature, 473, 368-371.
27. He, F. & Legendre, P. (2002) Species diversity patterns derived from species-area models. Ecology, 83, 1185-1198.
28. Hubbell, S.P. (2001) The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
29. Hubbell, S., He, F., Condit, R., Borda-de Água, L., Kellner, J. & ter Steege, H. (2008) How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11498-11504.
30. Kendall, D.G. (1948) On some modes of population growth leading to R. A. Fisher's logarithmic series. Biometrika, 35, 6-15.
31. Kinzig, A.P. & Harte, J. (2000) Implications of endemics-area relationships for estimates of species extinctions. Ecology, 81, 3305-3311.
32. Koh, L.P. & Ghazoul, J. (2010) A matrix-calibrated species-area model for predicting biodiversity losses due to land-use change. Conservation Biology, 24, 994-1001.
33. Kraft, N.J.B., Comita, L.S., Chase, J.M., Sanders, N.J., Swenson, N.G., Crist, T.O. et al. (2011) Disentangling the drivers of diversity along latitudinal and elevational gradients. Science, 333, 1755-1758.
34. Kuussaari, M., Bommarco, R., Heikkinen, R.K., Helm, A., Krauss, J., Lindborg, R. et al. (2009) Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24, 564-571.
35. May, R.M. (1975) Patterns of species abundance and diversity. Ecology and Evolution of Communities (eds M.L. Cody & J.M. Diamond ), pp. 81-120. Belknap Press, Cambridge, MA.
36. May, R.M., Lawton, J.H. & Stork, N.E. (1995) Assessing extinction rates. Extinction Rates (eds J.H. Lawton & R.M. May ), pp., 1-24. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
37. McGill, B.J. & Nekola, J.C. (2010) Mechanisms in macroecology: AWOL or pu-rloined letter? Towards a pragmatic view of mechanism. Oikos, 119, 591-603.
38. McGuinness, K.A. (1984) Equations and explanations in the study of species-area curves. Biological Reviews, 59, 423-440.
39. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC.
40. Moilanen, A. (2007) Landscape Zonation, benefit functions and target-based planning: Unifying reserve selection strategies. Biological Conservation, 134, 571-579.
41. Morlon, H., Chuyong, G., Condit, R., Hubbell, S., Kenfack, D., Thomas, D. et al. (2008) A general framework for the distance-decay of similarity in ecological communities. Ecology Letters, 11, 904-917.
42. Morris, W.F. & Doak, D.F. (2002) Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
43. Murdoch, W., Polasky, S., Wilson, K.A., Possingham, H.P., Kareiva, P. & Shaw, R. (2007) Maximizing return on investment in conservation. Biological Conservation, 139, 375-388.
44. Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A. & Kent, J. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853-858.
45. Nedelman, J. & Wallenius, T.E.D. (1986) Bernoulli trials, poisson trials, surprising variances, and Jensen's Inequality. The American Statistician, 40, 286-289.
46. Ney-Nifle, M. & Mangel, M. (1999) Species-area curves based on geographic range and occupancy. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 196, 327-342.
47. Pielou, E.C. (1976) Ecological Diversity. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
48. Pielou, E.C. (1977) Mathematical Ecology. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
49. Pimm, S., Russell, G., Gittleman, J. & Brooks, T. (1995) The future of biodiversity. Science, 269, 347-350.
50. Preston, F.W. (1962) The canonical distribution of commonness and rarity: part I. Ecology, 43, 185-215.
51. Pueyo, S. & Zillio, T. (2007) The maximum entropy formalism and the idiosyncratic theory of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 10, 1017-1028.
52. Rosenzweig, M.L. (1995) Species Diversity in Space and Time. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
53. Seabloom, E.W., Dobson, A.P. & Stoms, D.M. (2002) Extinction rates under nonrandom patterns of habitat loss. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99, 11229-11234.
54. Smith, A.B. (2010) Caution with curves: caveats for using the species-area relationship in conservation. Biological Conservation, 143, 555-564.
55. Storch, D., Izling, A.L. & Gaston, K.J. (2003) Geometry of the species-area relationship in central European birds: testing the mechanism. Journal of Animal Ecology, 72, 509-519.
56. Tanentzap, A.J., Walker, S., Theo Stephens, R.T. & Lee, W.G. (2012) A framework for predicting species extinction by linking population dynamics with habitat loss. Conservation Letters. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00221.x/abstract.
57. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C. et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
58. Tilman, D., May, R., Lehman, C. & Nowak, M. (1994) Habitat destruction and the extinction debt. Nature, 371, 65-66.
59. Tjørve, E. (2003) Shapes and functions of species-area curves: a review of possible models. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 827-835.
60. Tjørve, E., Kunin, W.E., Polce, C. & Calf Tjørve, K.M. (2008) Species-area relationship: separating the effects of species abundance and spatial distribution. Journal of Ecology, 96, 1141-1151.
61. Traill, L., Bradshaw, C. & Brook, B. (2007) Minimum viable population size: a meta analysis of 30 years of published estimates. Biological Conservation, 139, 159-166.
62. Vuuren, D.P.V., Sala, O.E. & Pereira, H.M. (2006) The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. Ecology and Society, 11, 25.
63. White, E.P., Thibault, K.M. & Xiao, X. (2012) Characterizing species abundance distributions across taxa and ecosystems using a simple maximum entropy model. Ecology, 93, 1772-1778.
64. Williams, J.C., ReVelle, C.S. & Levin, S.A. (2004) Using mathematical optimization models to design nature reserves. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2, 98-105.
65. Wilson, K.A., McBride, M.F., Bode, M. & Possingham, H.P. (2006) Prioritizing global conservation efforts. Nature, 440, 337-340.
66. Wilson, K.A., Underwood, E.C., Morrison, S.A., Klausmeyer, K.R., Murdoch, W.W., Reyers, B. et al. (2007) Conserving biodiversity efficiently: what to do, where, and when. PLoS Biology, 5, e223.
67. Young, J.H. & Willson, L.J. (1987) Use of Bose-Einstein statistics in population dynamics models of arthropods. Ecological Modelling, 36, 89-99.
68. Zillio, T. & He, F. (2010) Modeling spatial aggregation of finite populations. Ecology, 91, 3698-3706.