Species' Geographic Distributions Through Time: Playing Catch-up with Changing Climates

Evolution: Education and Outreach

Volumn 5, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 569-581

  Peterson, A Townsend ^a   Lieberman, Bruce S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Geographic distribution; Neontology; Paleontology

Indexed keywords

EID: 84890871424     PISSN: 19366426     EISSN: 19366434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12052-012-0385-2     Document Type: Article

References (127)

1. Abe FR, Lieberman BS. The nature of evolutionary radiations: a case study involving Devonian trilobites. Evol Biol. 2009;36:225-34.
2. Araújo MB, Rahbek C. How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science. 2006;313:1396-7.
3. Araújo MB, Thuiller W, Yoccoz NG. Reopening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2009;106:E45-6.
4. Avise JC. Phylogeography: the history and formation of species. 3rd ed. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 2000.
5. Avise JC. Phylogeography: retrospect and prospect. J Biogeogr. 2009;36:3-15.
6. Banks WE, d'Errico F, Peterson AT, Vanhaeren M, Kageyama M, Sepulchre P, Ramstein G, Jost A, Lunt D. Human ecological niches and ranges during the LGM in Europe derived from an application of eco-cultural niche modeling. J Archaeol Sci. 2007;35:481-91.
7. Banks WE, d'Errico F, Peterson AT, Kageyama M, Columbeau G. Reconstructing ecological niches and geographic distributions of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) during the Last Glacial Maximum. Quat Sci Rev. 2008;27:2568-75.
8. Banks WE, d'Errico F, Peterson AT, Kageyama M, Sima A, Sánchez-Goñi M-F. Neanderthal extinction by competitive exclusion. PLoS ONE. 2009;3:e3972.
9. Beale CM, Lennon JJ, Gimona A. Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2008;105:14908-12.
10. Bonaccorso E, Koch I, Peterson AT. Pleistocene fragmentation of Amazon species' ranges. Divers Distrib. 2006;12:157-64.
11. Broennimann O, Treier UA, Müller-Schärer H, Thuiller W, Peterson AT, Guisan A. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecol Lett. 2007;10:701-9.
12. Buckley TR, Marske KA, Attanayake D. Identifying glacial refugia in a geographic parthenogen using palaeoclimate modelling and phylogeography: the New Zealand stick insect Argosarchus horridus (White). Mol Ecol. 2009;18:4650-63.
13. Bush MB. Amazonian speciation: a necessarily complex model. J Biogeogr. 1994;21:5-17.
14. Carstens BC, Richards CL. Integrating coalescent and ecological niche modeling in comparative phylogeography. Evolution. 2007;61:1439-54.
15. Chan LM, Brown JL, Yoder AD. Integrating statistical genetic and geospatial methods brings new power to phylogeography. Mol Phylogenet Evol. 2011;59:523-37.
16. Church SA, Kraus JM, Mitchell JC, Church DR, Taylor DR. Evidence for multiple Pleistocene refugia in the postglacial expansion of the eastern tiger salamander, Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum. Evolution. 2003;57:372-83.
17. Collar NJ, Crosby MJ, Stattersfield AJ. Birds to watch 2. The world list of threatened birds. Cambridge: Bird Life International; 1994.
18. Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Gedney N, Halloran P, Hinton T, Hughes J, Jones CD, Joshi M, Liddicoat S, Martin G, O'Connor F, Rae J, Senior C, Sitch S, Totterdell I, Wiltshire A, Woodward S. Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model - HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev Discuss. 2011;4:997-1062.
19. Coope GR. Late Cenozoic Coleoptera: evolution, biogeography, and ecology. Annu Rev Ecol Syst. 1979;10:247-67.
20. Dansgaard W, Johnsen SJ, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Gundestrup NS, Hammer CU, Hvidberg CS, Steffensen JP, Sveinbjörnsdóttir AE, Jouzel J, Bond GC. Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250 kyr ice-core record. Nature. 1993;264:218-20.
21. Darwin C. On the origin of species by means of natural selection, or the preservation of favoured races in the struggle for life. London: Murray; 1859.
22. Davis MB. Climatic instability, time lags, and community disequilibrium. In: Diamond J, Case TJ, editors. Community ecology. New York: Harper and Row; 1986. p. 269-84.
23. Davis MB, Shaw RG. Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science. 2001;292:673-9.
24. Dobson A, Jolly A, Rubenstein D. The greenhouse effect and biological diversity. Trends Ecol Evol. 1989;4:64-8.
25. Dowsett HJ, Robinson M, Hayward A, Salzmann U, Hill D, Sohl L, Chandler M, Williams M, Foley K, Stoll D. The PRISM3D paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Stratigraphy. 2010;7:123-40.
26. Drummond A, Rambaut A. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees. BMC Evol Biol. 2007;7:214.
27. Dudei NL, Stigall AL. Using ecological niche modeling to assess biogeographic and niche response of brachiopod species to the Richmondian Invasion (Late Ordovician) in the Cincinnati Arch. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol. 2010;296:28-43.
28. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettman F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann LG, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton JM, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberón J, Williams SE, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography. 2006;29:129-51.
29. Esselstyn JA, Brown RM. The role of repeated sea-level fluctuations in the generation of shrew (Soricidae: Crocidura) diversity in the Philippine Archipelago. Mol Phylogenet Evol. 2009;53:171-81.
30. Esselstyn JA, Oliveros CH, Moyle RG, Peterson AT, McGuire JA, Brown RM. Integrating phylogenetic and taxonomic evidence illuminates complex biogeographic patterns along Huxley's modification of Wallace's Line. J Biogeogr. 2010;37:2054-66.
31. Fitzpatrick MC, Weltzin JF, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR. The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range? Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2007;16:24-33.
32. Fitzpatrick MC, Dunn RR, Sanders NJ. Datasets matter, but so do evolution and ecology: a response to Peterson and Nakazawa. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2008;17:562-5.
33. Foster DR, Schoonmaker PK, Pickett STA. Insights from paleoecology to community ecology. Trends Ecol Evol. 1990;5:119-22.
34. Gotelli NJ, Anderson MJ, Arita HT, Chao A, Colwell RK, Connolly SR, Currie DJ, Dunn RR, Graves GR, Green JL, Grytnes J-A, Jiang Y-H, Jetz W, Kathleen Lyons S, McCain CM, Magurran AE, Rahbek C, Rangel TFLVB, Soberón J, Webb CO, Willig MR. Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology. Ecol Lett. 2009;12:873-86.
35. Gradstein FM, Ogg JG, Smith AG, editors. A geologic time scale 2004. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2005.
36. Graham RW. Response of mammalian communities to environmental changes during the late Quaternary. In: Diamond J, Case TJ, editors. Community ecology. New York: Harper and Row; 1986. p. 300-13.
37. Graham CH, Elith J, Hijmans R, Guisan A, Peterson AT, Loiselle BA, NCEAS Species Distribution Modeling Group. The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models. J Appl Ecol. 2007;45:239-47.
38. Graham CH, Ron SR, Santos JC, Schneider CJ, Moritz C. Integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models to explore speciation mechanisms in dendrobatid frogs. Evolution. 2004;58:1781-93.
39. Grinnell J. Field tests of theories concerning distributional control. Am Nat. 1917;51:115-28.
40. Grinnell J. Geography and evolution. Ecology. 1924;5:225-9.
41. Guisan A, Graham CH, Elith J, Huettman F, NCEAS Species Distribution Modelling Group. Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size. Divers Distrib. 2007;13:332-40.
42. Haffer J. Avian speciation in tropical South America, with a systematic survey of the toucans (Ramphastidae) and jacamars (Galbulidae). Publ Nuttall Ornithol Club. 1974;14:1-390.
43. Harff J, Hay WW, Tetzlaff DM, editors. Coastline changes: interrelation of climate and geological processes. Boulder: Geological Society of America; 2007.
44. Hartley AJ. Andean uplift and climate change. J Geol Soc. 2003;160:7-10.
45. Heaney LR. A synopsis of climatic and vegetational change in Southeast Asia. Clim Chang. 1991;19:53-61.
46. Heaney LR, Walsh Jr JS, Peterson AT. The roles of geological history and colonization abilities in genetic differentiation between mammalian populations in the Philippine archipelago. J Biogeogr. 2005;32:229-47.
47. Holderegger R, Wagner HH. Landscape genetics. Bioscience. 2008;58:199-207.
48. Huntley B, Bartlein PJ, Prentice IC. Climatic control of the distribution and abundance of beech (Fagus L.) in Europe and North America. J Biogeogr. 1989;16:551-60.
49. Jakob SS, Martinez-Meyer E, Blattner FR. Phylogeographic analyses and paleodistribution modeling indicate Pleistocene in situ survival of Hordeum species (Poaceae) in southern Patagonia without genetic or spatial restriction. Mol Biol Evol. 2009;26:907-23.
50. Jiménez-Valverde A, Barve N, Lira-Noriega A, Maher SP, Nakazawa Y, Papeş M, Soberón J, Sukumaran J, Peterson AT. Dominant climate influences on North American bird distributions. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2010;20:114-8.
51. Kawecki TJ, Ebert D. Conceptual issues in local adaptation. Ecol Lett. 2004;7:1225-41.
52. Klicka J, Zink RM. The importance of recent ice ages in speciation: a failed paradigm. Science. 1997;277:1666-9.
53. Knowles LL. Statistical phylogeography. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2006;40:593-612.
54. Knowles LL, Carstens BC, Keat ML. Coupling genetic and ecological-niche models to examine how past population distributions contribute to divergence. Curr Biol. 2007;17:940-6.
55. Lambeck K, Chappell J. Sea level change through the last glacial cycle. Science. 2001;292:679-86.
56. Lanner RM, Van Devender TR. Late Pleistocene piñon pines in the Chihuahuan Desert. Quat Res. 1981;15:278-90.
57. Lieberman BS. Applying molecular phylogeography to test paleoecological hypotheses: a case study involving Amblema plicata (Mollusca, Unionidae). In: Allmon WD, Bottjer D, editors. Evolutionary paleoecology. New York: Columbia University Press; 2000a. p. 83-103.
58. Lieberman BS. Paleobiogeography: using fossils to study global change, plate tectonics, and evolution. New York: Plenum; 2000b.
59. Lieberman BS. Biogeography with and without the fossil record. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol. 2002;178:39-52.
60. Lieberman BS. Paleobiogeography: the relevance of fossils to biogeography. Annu Rev Ecol Syst. 2003;34:51-69.
61. Lieberman BS, Eldredge N. Trilobite biogeography in the Middle Devonian: geological processes and analytical methods. Paleobiology. 1996;22:66-79.
62. Lim HC, Rahman MA, Lim SLH, Moyle RG, Sheldon FH. Revisiting Wallace's haunt: coalescent simulations and comparative niche modeling reveal historical mechanisms that promoted avian population divergence in the Malay Archipelago. Evolution. 2011;65:321-34.
63. Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2008;17:145-51.
64. Lomolino MV, Brown JH, Davis R. Island biogeography of montane forest mammals in the American Southwest. Ecology. 1989;70:180-94.
65. Lomolino MV, Riddle BR, Brown JH. Biogeography. 3rd ed. Sunderland: Sinauer Associates; 2005.
66. Maguire KC, Stigall AL. Distribution of fossil horses in the Great Plains during the Miocene and Pliocene: an ecological niche modeling approach. Paleobiology. 2009;35:597-611.
67. Marske KA, Leschen RAB, Barker GM, Buckley TR. Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans-alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle. Mol Ecol. 2009;18:5126-42.
68. Martin PS, Harrell BE. The Pleistocene history of temperate biotas in Mexico and eastern United States. Ecology. 1957;38:468-80.
69. Martínez-Meyer E, Peterson AT. Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition. J Biogeogr. 2006;33:1779-89.
70. Martínez-Meyer E, Peterson AT, Hargrove WW. Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2004;13:305-14.
71. McCormack JE, Delaney KS, Peterson AT. Calibrating divergence times on species trees versus gene trees: implications for speciation history of Aphelocoma jays. Evolution. 2010;65:184-202.
72. McGhee Jr GR. The Late Devonian mass extinction. New York: Columbia University Press; 1996.
73. Medley KA. Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2010;19:122-33.
74. Meert JG, Lieberman BS. A palaeomagnetic and palaeobiogeographic perspective on latest Neoproterozoic and early Cambrian tectonic events. J Geol Soc Lond. 2004;161:1-11.
75. Myers CE, Lieberman BS. Sharks that pass in the night: using geographical information systems to investigate competition in the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway. Proc R Soc B. 2011;278:681-89.
76. Nogués-Bravo D, Rodríguez J, Hortal J, Batra P, Araújo MB. Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the wooly mammoth. PLoS Biol. 2008;6:e79.
77. Nyári ÁS, Peterson AT, Rathbun GB. Late Pleistocene potential distribution of the North African elephant-shrew Elephantulus rozeti (Mammalia: Macroscelidea). Afr Zool. 2010;45:330-9.
78. Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT. Modeling ecological niches and predicting geographic distributions: a test of six presence-only methods. Rev Mex de la Biodiversidad. 2008;79:205-16.
79. Otto-Bliesner BL, Marshall SJ, Overpeck JT, Miller GH, Hu A, CAPE Last Interglacial Project members. Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the Last Interglaciation. Science. 2006;311:1751-3.
80. Pagel M, Venditti C, Meade A. Large punctuational contribution of speciation to evolutionary divergence at the molecular level. Science. 2006;314:119-21.
81. Parmesan C. Climate and species' range. Nature. 1996;382:765-6.
82. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Descimon H, Huntley B, Kaila L, Kullberg J, Tammaru T, Tennent J, Thomas JA, Warren M. Poleward shift of butterfly species' ranges associated with regional warming. Nature. 1999;399:579-83.
83. Parmesan C, Gaines S, González L, Kaufman DM, Kingsolver J, Peterson AT, Sagarin R. Empirical perspectives on species borders: from traditional biogeography to global change. Oikos. 2004;108:58-75.
84. Pearson RG, Dawson TP. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2003;12:361-71.
85. Peters RL, Darling JDS. The greenhouse effect and nature reserves. Bioscience. 1985;35:707-17.
86. Peterson AT. Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences. Glob Chang Biol. 2003;9:647-55.
87. Peterson AT. Uses and requirements of ecological niche models and related distributional models. Biodivers Inform. 2006;3:59-72.
88. Peterson AT. Application of molecular clocks in ornithology revisited. J Avian Biol. 2007;37:541-4.
89. Peterson AT. Phylogeography is not enough: the need for multiple lines of evidence. Front Biogeogr. 2009;1:19-25.
90. Peterson AT. Ecological niche conservatism: a time-structured review of evidence. J Biogeogr. 2011;38:817-27.
91. Peterson AT, Heaney LR. Genetic differentiation in Philippine bats of the genera Cynopterus and Haplonycteris. Biol J Linn Soc. 1993;49:203-18.
92. Peterson AT, Holt RD. Niche differentiation in Mexican birds: using point occurrences to detect ecological innovation. Ecol Lett. 2003;6:774-82.
93. Peterson AT, Martínez-Meyer E. Pervasive poleward shifts among North American bird species. Biodiversity. 2009;9:14-6.
94. Peterson AT, Nyári Á. Ecological niche conservatism and Pleistocene refugia in the thrush-like mourner, Schiffornis sp., in the Neotropics. Evolution. 2007;62-I:173-83.
95. Peterson AT, Soberón J, Sánchez-Cordero V. Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science. 1999;285:1265-7.
96. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DRB. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature. 2002;416:626-9.
97. Peterson AT, Martínez-Meyer E, González-Salazar C. Reconstructing the Pleistocene geography of the Aphelocoma jays (Corvidae). Divers Distrib. 2004;10:237-46.
98. Peterson AT, Papeş M, Soberón J. Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modelling. Ecol Model. 2008;213:63-72.
99. Peterson AT, Barve N, Bini LM, Diniz-Filho JA, Jiménez-Valverde A, Lira-Noriega A, Lobo JM, Maher S, Marco Jr PD, Martínez-Meyer E, Nakazawa Y, Soberón J. The climate envelope may not be empty. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2009;106:E47.
100. Premoli AC, Mathiasen P, Kitzberger T. Southern-most Nothofagus trees enduring ice ages: genetic evidence and ecological niche retrodiction reveal high latitude (54°S) glacial refugia. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol. 2010;298:247-56.
101. Riccardi AC. IUGS ratified ICS recommendation on redefinition of Pleistocene and formal definition of base of Quaternary [resolution]. Reston: International Union of Geological Sciences; 2009.
102. Richards CL, Carstens BC, Knowles LL. Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses. J Biogeogr. 2007;34:1833-45.
103. Ricklefs RE, Latham RE. Intercontinental correlation of geographical ranges suggests stasis in ecological traits of relict genera of temperate perennial herbs. Am Nat. 1992;139:1305-21.
104. Rode A, Lieberman BS. Using GIS to study the biogeography of the Late Devonian biodiversity crisis. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol. 2004;211:345-59.
105. Rode AL, Lieberman BS. Integrating biogeography and evolution using phylogenetics and PaleoGIS: a case study involving Devonian crustaceans. J Paleontol. 2005;79:267-76.
106. Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Hampe A, Jordano P, Arroyo J. Past tree range dynamics in the Iberian Peninsula inferred through phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling: a review. Rev Palaeobot Palynol. 2010;162:507-21.
107. Roy K, Jablonsk D, Valentine JW. Thermally anomalous assemblages revisited: patterns in the extraprovincial latitudinal range shifts of Pleistocene marine mollusks. Geology. 1995;23:1071-4.
108. Shepard DB, Burbrink FT. Phylogeographic and demographic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in a montane salamander, Plethodon fourchensis. Mol Ecol. 2009;18:2243-62.
109. Soberón J. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecol Lett. 2007;10:1115-23.
110. Soberón J. Niche and area of distribution modeling: a population ecology perspective. Ecography. 2010;33:159-67.
111. Soberón J, Peterson AT. Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodivers Inform. 2005;2:1-10.
112. Stadler T. Inferring speciation and extinction processes from extant species data. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011a;108:16145-6.
113. Stadler T. Mammalian phylogeny reveals recent diversification rate shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011b;108:6187-92.
114. Stigall AL. Tracking species in space and time: assessing the relationships between paleobiogeography, paleoecology, and macroevolution. In: Kelley PH, Bambach RK, editors. From evolution to geobiology: research questions driving paleontology at the start of a new century. Boulder: Paleontological Society; 2008. p. 227-42.
115. Stigall AL. Invasive species and biodiversity crises: testing the link in the Late Devonian. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e15584.
116. Stigall Rode AL, Lieberman BS. Using environmental niche modelling to study the Late Devonian biodiversity crisis. In: Over DJ, Morrow JR, Wignall PB, editors. Understanding Late Devonian and Permian-Triassic biotic and climatic events: towards an integrated approach. Developments in palaeontology and stratigraphy. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2005. p. 93-180.
117. Stigall AL, Lieberman BS. Quantitative palaeobiogeography: GIS, phylogenetic biogeographical analysis, and conservation insights. J Biogeogr. 2006;33:2051-60.
118. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, Ferreira de Siqueira M, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, Van Jaarsveld AS, Midgely GE, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature. 2004;427:145-8.
119. Varela S, Lobo JM, Rodríguez J, Batra P. Were the Late Pleistocene climatic changes responsible for the disappearance of the European spotted hyena populations? Hindcasting a species geographic distribution across time. Quat Sci Rev. 2010;29:2027-35.
120. Vermeij G. Biogeography and adaptation. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 1978.
121. Voris HK. Maps of Pleistocene sea levels in Southeast Asia: shorelines, river systems and time durations. J Biogeogr. 2000;27:1153-67.
122. Walls BJ, Stigall AL. Analyzing niche stability and biogeography of Late Ordovician brachiopod species using ecological niche modeling. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol. 2011;299:15-29.
123. Waltari E, Perkins S, Hijmans R, Peterson AT, Nyári Á, Guralnick R. Locating Pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions. PLoS ONE. 2007;2:e563.
124. Wang IJ. Recognizing the temporal distinctions between landscape genetics and phylogeography. Mol Ecol. 2010;19:2605-8.
125. Warren DL, Glor RE, Turelli M. Environmental niche equivalency versus conservatism: quantitative approaches to niche evolution. Evolution. 2008;62:2868-83.
126. Wells PV. Paleobiogeography of montane islands in the Great Basin since the last glaciopluvial. Ecol Monogr. 1983;53:341-82.
127. Wiens JJ. Commentary on Losos (2008): niche conservatism déjà vu. Ecol Lett. 2008;11:1004-5.