Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world

Global Change Biology

Volumn 20, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 7-15

  Pike, David A ^a  

^a JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Caretta caretta; Ecological niche modeling; Egg incubation; Fitness; Loggerhead turtle; Precipitation; Temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; EGG PRODUCTION; FITNESS; HATCHING; OVIPOSITION; POPULATION SIZE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TURTLE; WARMING;

ANIMALIA; CARETTA; CARETTA CARETTA; CHELONIIDAE; REPTILIA; TESTUDINES;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; CELL SURVIVAL; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; OOCYTE; PHYSIOLOGY; REPRODUCTION; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL; TURTLE;

ANIMALS; CELL SURVIVAL; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; MODELS, THEORETICAL; OVUM; REPRODUCTION; TEMPERATURE; TURTLES;

EID: 84889649147     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12397     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Ackerman RA (1997) The nest environment and the embryonic development of sea turtles. In: The Biology of Sea Turtles (eds Lutz PL, Musick JA), pp. 83-106. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
2. Brambilla M, Ficetola GF (2012) Species distribution models as a tool to estimate reproductive parameters: a case study with a passerine bird species. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81, 781-787.
3. Davenport J (1997) Temperature and the life-history strategies of sea turtles. Journal of Thermal Biology, 22, 479-488.
4. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 6668-6672.
5. Dewald JR, Pike DA (2013) Geographical variation in hurricane impacts among sea turtle populations. Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/jbi.12197.
6. Dow Piniak WE, Eckert KL (2011) Sea turtle nesting habitat in the Wider Caribbean Region. Endangered Species Research, 15, 129-141.
7. Dubey S, Pike DA, Shine R (2013) Predicting the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity in an endangered lizard species. Climatic Change, 117, 319-327.
8. Fish MR, Cote IM, Gill JA, Jones AP, Renshoff S, Watkinson AR (2005) Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea turtle nesting habitat. Conservation Biology, 19, 482-491.
9. Fish MR, Cote IM, Horrocks JA, Mulligan B, Watkinson AR, Jones AP (2008) Construction setback regulations and sea-level rise: mitigating sea turtle nesting beach loss. Ocean and Coastal Management, 51, 330-341.
10. Fossette S, Schofield G, Lilley MKS, Gleiss A, Hays GC (2012) Acceleration data reveals the energy management strategy of a marine ectotherm during reproduction. Functional Ecology, 26, 324-333.
11. Fuentes MMPB, Porter WP (2013) Using a microclimate model to evaluate impacts of climate change on sea turtles. Ecological Modelling, 251, 150-157.
12. Fuentes MMPB, Limpus CJ, Hamann M (2011) Vulnerability of sea turtle nesting grounds to climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 140-153.
13. Fuentes MMBP, Pike DA, Dimatteo A, Wallace BP (2013) Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change. Global Change Biology, 19, 1399-1406.
14. Godley BJ, Broderick AC, Downie JR et al. (2001) Thermal conditions in nests of loggerhead turtles: further evidence suggesting female skewed sex ratios of hatchling production in the Mediterranean. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 263, 45-63.
15. Grigg JW, Buckley LB (2013) Conservatism of lizard thermal tolerances and body temperatures across evolutionary history and geography. Biology Letters, 9, 20121056.
16. Hawkes LA, Broderick AC, Godfrey MH, Godley BJ (2007) Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population. Global Change Biology, 13, 923-932.
17. Hays GC, Adams CR, Mortimer JA, Speakman JR (1995) Inter-beach and Intra-beach thermal variation for green turtle nests on Ascension Island, South-Atlantic. Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, 75, 405-411.
18. Hays GC, Ashworth JS, Barnsley MJ et al. (2001) The importance of sand albedo for the thermal conditions on sea turtle nesting beaches. Oikos, 93, 87-94.
19. Hays GC, Broderick AC, Glen F, Godley BJ (2003) Climate change and sea turtles: a 150-year reconstruction of incubation temperatures at a major marine turtle rookery. Global Change Biology, 9, 642-646.
20. Hays GC, Fossette S, Katselidis KA, Schofield G, Gravenor MB (2010) Breeding periodicity for male sea turtles, operational sex ratios, and implications in the face of climate change. Conservation Biology, 24, 1636-1643.
21. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones P, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
22. Huang W-S, Pike DA (2011) Climate change impacts on fitness depend on nesting habitat in lizards. Functional Ecology, 25, 1125-1136.
23. Huey RB, Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Vitt LJ, Hertz PE, Álvarez Pérez HJ, Garland T (2009) Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 1939-1948.
24. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
25. Katselidis KA, Schofield G, Dimopoulos P, Stamou GN, Pantis JD (2012) Females First? Past, present and future variability in offspring sex-ratio at a temperate sea turtle breeding area. Animal Conservation, 15, 508-518.
26. Kearney M, Shine R, Porter WP (2009) The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 3835-3840.
27. Kulhanek SA, Leung B, Ricciardi A (2011) Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species: application to the common carp. Ecological Applications, 21, 203-213.
28. Logan ML, Huynh RK, Precious RA, Calsbeek RG (2013) The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards. Global Change Biology, 19, 3093-3102.
29. Mitchell NJ, Kearney MR, Nelson NJ, Porter WP (2008) Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara? Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275, 2185-2193.
30. Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
31. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
32. Pike DA (2008) Natural beaches confer fitness benefits to nesting marine turtles. Biology Letters, 4, 704-706.
33. Pike DA (2009) Natural beaches produce more hatchling marine turtles than developed beaches, despite regional differences in hatching success. Biology Letters, 5, 268-269.
34. Pike DA (2013a) Climate influences the global distribution of sea turtle nesting. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 555-566.
35. Pike DA (2013b) Forecasting eange expansion into ecological traps: climate-mediated shifts in sea turtle nesting beaches and human development. Global Change Biology, 19, 3082-3092.
36. Rasmussen K, Palacios DM, Calambokidis J et al. (2007) Southern Hemisphere humpback whales wintering off Central America: insights from water temperature into the longest mammalian migration. Biology Letters, 3, 302-305.
37. Schofield G, Bishop CM, Katselidis KA, Dimopoulos P, Pantis JD, Hays GC (2009) Microhabitat selection by sea turtles in a dynamic thermal environment. Journal of Animal Ecology, 78, 14-22.
38. Sinervo B, Méndez-De-La-Cruz F, Miles DB et al. (2010) Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 328, 894-899.
39. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Nakićenović N, Swart R). Cambridge University Press, Geneva.
40. Storch S, Wilson RP, Hillis-Starr Z-M, Adelung D (2005) Cold-blooded divers: temperature dependent dive performance in wild hawksbill turtles Eretmochelys imbricata. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 293, 263-271.
41. Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2011) Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 278, 1823-1830.
42. Tapilatu RF, Tiwari M (2007) Leatherback turtle, Dermochelys coriacea, hatching success at Jamursba-Medi and Wermon Beaches in Papua, Indonesia. Chelonian Conservation and Biology, 6, 154-158.
43. Telemeco RS, Elphick MJ, Shine R (2009) Nesting lizards (Bassiana duperreyi) compensate partly, but not completely, for climate change. Ecology, 90, 17-22.
44. Telemeco RS, Abbott KC, Janzen FJ (2013) Modeling the effects of climate change-induced shifts in reproductive phenology on temperature-dependent traits. The American Naturalist, 181, 637-648.
45. Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Deutsch CA (2008) Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science, 320, 1296-1297.
46. Vanderwal J, Shoo LP, Johnson CN, Williams SE (2009) Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. American Naturalist, 174, 282-291.
47. Vickers M, Manicom C, Schwarzkopf L (2011) Extending the cost-benefit model of thermoregulation: high-temperature environments. American Naturalist, 177, 452-461.
48. Wallace BP, Dimatteo AD, Hurley BJ et al. (2010) Regional management units for marine turtles: a novel framework for prioritizing conservation and research across multiple scales. PLoS ONE, 5, e15465.
49. Witt MJ, Hawkes LA, Godfrey MH, Godley BJ, Broderick AC (2010) Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle. The Journal of Experimental Biology, 213, 901-911.
50. Wood DW, Bjorndal KA (2000) Relation of temperature, moisture, salinity, and slope to nest site selection in loggerhead sea turtles. Copeia, 2000, 119-128.
51. Wright LI, Stokes KL, Fuller WJ et al. (2012) Turtle mating patterns buffer against disruptive effects of climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 279, 2122-2127.