A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 17, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 4177-4187

  Ukkola, A M ^a,b   Prentice, I C ^a,c  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADDITIONAL CONTROL; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; LAND-SURFACE PROCESS; PRECIPITATION DATA; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; TIME-SERIES DATA; WORLDWIDE ANALYSIS;

CARBON DIOXIDE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; STREAM FLOW; SUN; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; FOLIAGE; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; LAND USE CHANGE; RIVER BASIN; SOLAR RADIATION; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; STREAMFLOW; TIME SERIES; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER BUDGET;

EID: 84886802327     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317-337, 2003
2. Alkama, R., Kageyama, M., and Ramstein, G.: Telative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D17112, doi:10.1029/2009jd013408, 2010
3. Alkama, R., Decharme, B., Douville, H., and Ribes, A.: Trends in global and basin-scale runoff over the late twentieth century: Methodological issues and sources of uncertainty, J. Climate, 24, 3000-3014, doi:10.1175/2010jcli3921. 1, 2011
4. Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L., Olson, R., Hollinger, D., Running, S., Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K., Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein A., Katul, G., Law, B., Lee, X., Malhi, Y., Meyers, T., Munger,W., Oechel,W., Paw U., K. T., Pilegaard K., Schmid, H. P., Valentini, R., Verma S., Vesala, T., Wilson, K., and Wofsy, S.: FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 2415-2434, 2001
5. Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Haywood, J., Johnson, C., Jones, A., Rae, J., and Woodward, S.: Improved representation of aerosols for HadGEM2, Hadley Centre technical note 73, Exeter, United Kingdom, 42 pp., 2007
6. Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Lee, S. E., and Woodward, F. I.: Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations, Nature, 387, 796-799, 1997
7. Betts, R. A., Boucher, O., Collins, M., Cox, P. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Hemming, D. L., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Sexton, D. M. H., andWebb, M. J.: Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide, Nature, 448, 1037-1041, doi:10.1038/nature06045, 2007
8. Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., MÜller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Global Change Biol., 13, 679-706, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006. 01305.x, 2007
9. Bosch, J. M. and Hewlett, J. D.: A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration, J. Hydrol., 55, 3-23, 1982
10. Bradshaw, C. J. A., Sodhi, N. S., Peh, K. S. H., and Brook, B. W.: Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world, Global Change Biol., 13, 2379-2395, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446. x, 2007
11. Brutsaert, W.: Indications of increasing land surface evaporation during the second half of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L20403, doi:10.1029/2006GL027532, 2006
12. Budyko, M. I.: Climate and life, International Physics Series, Academic, New York, 1974
13. Dai, A., Qian, T., Trenberth, K. E., and Milliman, J. D.: Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Climate, 22, 2773-2792, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1, 2009
14. D'Almeida, C., Vörösmarty, C. J., Hurtt, G. C., Marengo, J. A., Dingman, S. L., and Keim, B. D.: The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: A review on scale and resolution, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 633-647, doi:10.1002/joc.1475, 2007
15. Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., and McVicar, T. R.: On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in Budyko's hydrological model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 983-995, doi:10.5194/hess-11-983-2007, 2007
16. Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., McVicar, T. R., and Farquhar, G. D.: Impact of CO2 fertilisation on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3031-3035, doi:10.1002/grl.50563, 2013
17. Douville, H., Ribes, A., Decharme, B., Alkama, R., and Sheffield, J.: Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 59-62, doi:10.1038/nclimate1632, 2012
18. Etheridge, D., Steele, L., Langenfelds, R., Francey, R., Barnola, J-M., and Morgan, V.: Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 4115-4128, 1996
19. Gallego-Sala, A. V, Clark, J. M., House, J. I., Orr, H. G., Prentice, I. C., Smith, P., Farewell, T., and Chapman, S. J.: Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain, Clim. Res, 45, 151-162, doi:10.3354/cr00911, 2010
20. Gedney, N., Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., and Stott, P. A.: Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records, Nature, 439, 835-838, doi:10.1038/nature04504, 2006
21. Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249-270, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003. 09.029, 2004
22. Gerten, D., Rost, S., von Bloh,W., and Lucht,W.: Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20405, doi:10.1029/2008gl035258, 2008
23. Gordon, L. J., Steffen, W., Jönsson, B. F., Folke, C., Falkenmark, M., and Johannessen, Å.: Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 7612-7617, doi:10.1073/pnas.0500208102, 2005
24. Guerschman, J. P., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Mattersdorf, G., Beringer, J., Hutley, L. B., Leuning, R., Pipunic, R. C., and Sherman, B. S.: Scaling of potential evapotranspiration with MODIS data reproduces flux observations and catchment water balance observations across Australia, J. Hydrol., 369, 107-119, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.013, 2009
25. Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-The CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., in press, doi:10.1002/joc.3711, 2013
26. Hobbins, M. T.: Trends in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration across the conterminous U.S.: Paradoxical or complementary?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13503, doi:10.1029/2004GL019846, 2004
27. Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Teview and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83-95, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005. 07.003, 2006
28. IPCC: Appendix II-SRES Tables', in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp., 2001
29. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Seneviratne, S. I., Sheffield, J., Goulden, M. L., Bonan, G., Cescatti, A., Chen, J., de Jeu, R., Dolman, A. J., Eugster, W., Gerten, D., Gianelle, D., Gobron, N., Heinke, J., Kimball, J., Law, B. E., Montagnani, L., Mu, Q., Mueller, B., Oleson, K., Papale, D., Richardson, A. D., Roupsard, O., Running, S., Tomelleri, E., Viovy, N., Weber, U., Williams, C., Wood, E., Zaehle, S., and Zhang, K.: Tecent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply, Nature, 467, 951-954, doi:10.1038/nature09396, 2010
30. Kauffeldt, A., Halldin, S., Rodhe, A., Xu, C-Y., and Westerberg, I. K.: Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2845-2857, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, 2013
31. Kelley, D. I., Colin Prentice, I., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences Discuss., 9, 15723-15785, doi:10.5194/bgd-9-15723-2012, 2012
32. Klein Goldewijk, K.: Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE database, Global Biochem. Cy., 15, 417-433, doi:10.1029/ 1999GB001232, 2001
33. Klein Goldewijk, K. and Ramankutty, N.: Land cover change over the last three centuries due to human activities: The availability of new global data sets, GeoJournal, 61, 335-344, doi:10.1007/s10708-004-5050-z, 2004
34. Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system, Global Biochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005
35. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I.: The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 3-10, 2008
36. Labat, D., Goddéris, Y., Probst, J. L., and Guyot, J. L.: Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming, Adv. Water Resour., 27, 631-642, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.020, 2004
37. Legates, D. R., Lins, H. F., and McCabe, G. J.: Comments on "Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming" by Labat et al., Adv. Water Resour., 28, 1310-1315, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005. 04.006, 2005
38. Legendre, P. and Legendre, L.: Numerical Ecology, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands and Oxford, United Kingdom, 853 pp., 2012
39. Li, D., Pan, M., Cong, Z., Zhang, L., andWood, E.: Vegetation control on water and energy balance within the Budyko framework, Water Resour. Res., 49, 969-976, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20107, 2013
40. Li, Z. and Mölders, N.: Interaction of impacts of doubling CO2 and changing regional land-cover on evaporation, precipitation, and runoff at global and regional scales, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1653-1679, doi:10.1002/joc.1666, 2008
41. Lo, M-H. and Famiglietti, J. S.: Irrigation in California's Central Valley strengthens the southwestern U.S. water cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 301-306, doi:10.1002/grl.50108, 2013
42. McVicar, T. R., Roderick, M. L., Donohue, R. J., Li, L. T., Van Niel, T. G., Thomas, A., Grieser, J., Jhajharia, D., Himri, Y., Mahowald, N. M., Mescherskaya, A. V., Kruger, A. C., Rehman, S., and Dinpashoh, Y.: Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: Implications for evaporation, J. Hydrol., 416-417, 182-205, doi:10.1016/j. jhydrol.2011.10.024, 2012
43. Milliman, J. D., Farnsworth, K. L., Jones, P. D., Xu, K. H., and Smith, L. C.: Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000, Global Planet. Change, 62, 187-194, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.001, 2008
44. Monteith, J. L.: Accommodation between transpiring vegetation and the convective boundary layer, J. Hydrol., 166, 251-263, 1995
45. Mueller, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Jimenez, C., Corti, T., Hirschi, M., Balsamo, G., Ciais, P., Dirmeyer, P., Fisher, J. B., Guo, Z., Jung, M., Maignan, F., McCabe, M. F., Reichle, R., Reichstein, M., Rodell, M., Sheffield, J., Teuling, A. J., Wang, K., Wood, E. F., and Zhang, Y.: Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06402, doi:10.1029/2010gl046230, 2011
46. Murray, S. J., Foster, P. N., and Prentice, I. C.: Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 91-105, doi:10.5194/hess-15-91-2011, 2011
47. Murray, S. J., Watson, I. M., and Prentice, I.C.: The use of dynamic global vegetation models for simulating hydrology and the potential integration of satellite observations, Prog. Phys. Geog., 37, 63-97, doi:10.1177/ 0309133312460072, 2013
48. Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068-1072, doi:10.1126/science.1128845, 2006
49. Oliveira, P. J. C., Davin, E. L., Levis, S., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Vegetation-mediated impacts of trends in global radiation on land hydrology: A global sensitivity study, Global Change Biol., 17, 3453-3467, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02506.x, 2011
50. Peel, M. C. and McMahon T. A.: Continental runoff: A quality-controlled global runoff data set, Nature, 444, E14, doi:10.1038/nature05480, 2006
51. Peel, M. C., McMahon, T. A., and Finlayson, B. L.: Vegetation impact on mean annual evapotranspiration at a global catchment scale, Water Resour. Res., 46, W09508, doi:10.1029/2009WR008233, 2010
52. Piao, S., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Labat, D., and Zaehle, S.: Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 104, 15242-15247, doi:10.1073/pnas.0707213104, 2007
53. Prentice, I. C. and Cowling, S. A.: Dynamic global vegetation models, in: Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, 2nd Edn., edited by: Levin, S. A., Academic Press, 607-689, 2013
54. Prentice, I. C., Kelley, D. I., Foster, P. N., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison, S. P., and Bartlein, P. J.: Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biochem. Cy., 25, GB3005, doi:10.1029/2010gb003906, 2011
55. Raupach, M. R.: Equilibrium evaporation and the convective boundary layer, Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 96, 107-141, 2000
56. Raupach, M. R.: Combination theory and equilibrium evaporation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 1149-1181, 2001
57. Roderick, M. L. and Farquhar, G. D.: The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years, Science, 298, 1410-1411, doi:10.1126/science.1075390, 2002
58. Roderick, M. L. and Farquhar, G. D.: Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1077-1090, doi:10.1002/joc.1061, 2004
59. Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J., and Schaphoff, S.: Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system,Water Resour. Res., 44, W09405, doi:10.1029/2007wr006331, 2008
60. Rudolf, B., Hauschild, H., Rueth, W., and Schneider, U.: Terrestrial precipitation analysis: Operational method and required density of point measurements, in: Global Precipitations and Climate Change, edited by: Desbois, M. and Desalmond, F., NATO ASI Series I, Vol. 20, Springer-Verlag, 173-186, 1994
61. Schneider, U., Fuchs, T., Meyer-Christoffer, A., and Rudolf, B.: Global Precipitation Analysis Products of the GPCC, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany, 2008
62. Sellers, P. J., Bounoua, L., Collatz, G. J., Randall, D. A., Dazlich, D. A., Los, S. O., Berry, J. A., Fung, I., Tucker, C. J., Field, C. B., and Jensen, T. G.: Comparison of radiative and physiological effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 on climate, Science, 271, 1402-1406, doi:10.1126/science.271.5254.1402, 1996
63. Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010
64. Sheffield, J. and Wood, E. F.: Global trends and variability in soil moisture and drought characteristics, 1950-2000, from observation-driven simulations of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle, J. Climate, 21, 432-458, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1822.1, 2008
65. Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplans, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Global Change Biol., 9, 161-185, 2003
66. Teuling, A. J., Hirschi, M., Ohmura, A., Wild, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Buchmann, N., Ammann, C., Montagnani, L., Richardson, a. D., Wohlfahrt, G., and Seneviratne, S. I.: A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02404, doi:10.1029/2008GL036584, 2009
67. Ukkola, A. M. and Murray, S. J.: Hydrological evaluation of the LPX dynamic global vegetation model for small river catchments in the UK, Hydrol. Process., in press, 2013
68. Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. a., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Jansses, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J-F., Morcrette, J-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch. A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-Analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005
69. Wang, K. and Dickinson, R. E.: A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: Observation, modeling, climatology and climatic variability, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG2005, doi:10.1029/2011RG000373, 2012
70. Wang, K., Dickinson, R. E., Wild, M., and Liang, S.: Evidence for decadal variation in global terrestrial evapotranspiration between 1982 and 2002: 2. Results, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D20113, doi:10.1029/2010JD013847, 2010
71. Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E., Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823-848, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1369.1, 2011
72. Wild, M., Grieser, J., and Schär, C.: Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land-based hydrological cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17706, doi:10.1029/2008gl034842, 2008
73. Wohl, E., Barros, A., Brunsell, N., Chappell, N. A., Coe, M., Giambelluca, T., Goldsmith, S., Harmon, R., Hendrickx, J. M. H., Juvik, J., McDonnell, J., and Ogden, F.: The hydrology of the humid tropics, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 655-662, doi:10.1038/nclimate1556, 2012
74. Xu, C-Y. and Singh, V. P.: Evaluation and generalization of radiation-based methods for calculating evaporation, Hydrol. Process., 14, 339-349, 2000
75. Zeng, Z., Piao, S., Lin, X., Yin, G., Peng, S., Ciais, P., and Myneni, R. B.: Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: Estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014026, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014026, 2012
76. Zhang, L. K., Hickel, K., Dawes, W. R., Chiew, F. H. S., Western, A. W., and Briggs P. R.: A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration, Water Resour. Res., 40, W02502, doi:10.1029/2003WR002710, 2004
77. Zhang, Y., Leuning, R., Chiew, F. H. S., Wang, E., Zhang, L., Liu, C., Sun, F., Peel, M. C., Shen, Y., and Jung, M.: Decadal trends in evaporation from global energy and water balances, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 379-391, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-012.1, 2012
78. Zobler, L.: A world soil file for global climate modelling, NASA Technical Memorandum 87802, NASA/GISS, New York, USA, 32 pp., 1986