Interaction of impacts of doubling CO2 and changing regional land-cover on evaporation, precipitation, and runoff at global and regional scales

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 28, Issue 12, 2008, Pages 1653-1679

  Li, Zhao ^a   Mölders, Nicole ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

Author keywords

ANOVA; CCSM; CO2; Interaction of anthropogenic impacts; Land cover changes; Multiple testing

Indexed keywords

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA); EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; FLOW INTERACTIONS; LANDFORMS; MILITARY OPERATIONS; MODEL STRUCTURES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; REMOTE CONSOLES; STEEL STRUCTURES; THEOREM PROVING; WATER ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY;

ANOVA; CCSM; CO2; INTERACTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS; LAND-COVER CHANGES; MULTIPLE TESTING;

CARBON DIOXIDE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; LAND COVER; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 57849164517     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1666     Document Type: Article

References (96)

1. AchutaRao K, Covey C, Doutriaux C, Fionino M, Gleckler P, Philips T, Sperber K, Taylor K, Bader D (eds). 2004. An appraisal of coupled climate model simulations. Technical Report UCRLTR-202550. University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: Livermore, CA, http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/modelappraisal.pdf, 28-31.
2. Aizen EM, Aizen VB, Melack JM, Nakamura T, Ohta T. 2001. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid-latitudes of Asia. International Journal of Climatology 21: 535-556.
3. Anthes RA. 1983. Regional models of the atmosphere in middle latitudes. Monthly Weather Review 111: 1306-1335.
4. Anthes RA, Kuo YH, Hsie EY, Low-Nam S, Bettge TW. 1989. Estimation of skill and uncertainty in regional numerical models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 111: 763-806.
5. Avissar R. 1995. Recent advances in the representation of landatmosphere interactions in general circulation models. Reviews of Geophysics 33: 1005-1010.
6. Avissar R, Werth D. 2005. Global hydroclimatological teleconnections resulting from tropical deforestation. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 134-145.
7. Bonan G. 2001. Observational evidence for reduction of daily maximum temperature by croplands in the Midwest United States. Journal of Climate 14: 2430-2442.
8. Bonan GB, Oleson KW, Vertenstein M, Levis S, Zeng X, Dai Y, Dickinson RE, Yang ZL. 2002. The land surface climatology of the Community Land Model coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. Journal of Climate 15: 3123-3149.
9. Bosilovich MG, Schubert SD, Walker GK. 2005. Global changes of the water cycle intensity. Journal of Climate 18: 1591-1608.
10. Bounoua L, deFries R, Collatz GJ, Sellers P, Khan H. 2002. Effects of land cover conversion on surface climate. Climatic Change 52: 29-64.
11. Bounoua L, Collatz GJ, Los SO, Sellers PJ, Dazlich DA, Tucker CJ, Randall DA. 2000. Sensitivity of climate to changes in NDVI. Journal of Climate 13: 2277-2292.
12. Briegleb BP, Bitz CM, Hunke EC, Lipscomb WH, Holland MM, Schramm JL, Moritz RE. 2004. Scientific description of the sea ice component in the Community Climate System Model, version three. Technical Report NCAR/ TN-463+STR. National Center for Atmospheric Research: Boulder, CO; 78.
13. Cahoon DR Jr, Stocks BJ, Levine JS, Cofer WR III, Pierson JM. 1994. Satellite analysis of the severe 1987 forest fires in northern China and southeastern Siberia. Journal of Geophysical Research 99D: 18627-18638.
14. Caires S, Swail VR, Wang XL. 2006. Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate. Journal of Climate 19: 5581-5605.
15. Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Nemani RR, Running SW. 1996. The sensitivity of a general circulation model to global changes in leaf area index. Journal of Geophysical Research 101: 7393-7408.
16. Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Aron JS, Stohlgren TJ. 1999. Potential impacts on Colorado Rocky Mountain weather due to land use changes on the adjacent Great Plains. Journal of Geophysical Research 104D: 16673-16690.
17. Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Nemani RR, Running SW. 2000. Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter. Climate Dynamics 16: 93-105.
18. Chen TC, Yoon JH, St Croix KJ, Takle ES. 2001. Suppressing impacts of the Amazonian deforestation by the global circulation change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 2209-2216.
19. Claussen M, Mysak L, Weaver A, Crucifix M, Fichefet T, Loutre MF, Weber S, Alcamo J, Alexeev V, Berger A, Calov R, Ganopolski A, Goosse H, Lohmann G, Lunkeit F, Mokhov I, Petoukhov V, Stone P, Wang Z. 2002. Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models. Climate Dynamics 18: 179-586.
20. Colle BA, Mass CF, Westrick CF. 2000. MM5 precipitation verification over the Pacific Northwest during the 1997-99 cool seasons. Weather Forecasting 15: 730-744.
21. Coquard J, Duffy PB, Taylor KE, Iorio JP. 2004. Present and future surface climate in the western USA as simulated by 15 global climate models. Climate Dynamics 23: 455-472.
22. Cotton WR, Pielke RA. 1995. Human Impacts on Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 288.
23. Covey C, AchutaRao KM, Cubasch U, Jones P, Lambert SJ, Mann ME, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE. 2003. An overview of results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Global and Planetary Change 37: 103-133.
24. Croley TE II, Quinn FH, Kunkel KE, Changnon SA. 1998. Great Lakes hydrology under transposed climates. Climatic Change 38: 405-433.
25. Cubasch U, Waszekwitz J, Hegerl G, Perlwitz J. 1995. Regional climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments. Climatic Change 31: 273-304.
26. Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS. 2001. Projections of future climate change. In Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 881.
27. Dai A, Trenberth KE. 2004. The diurnal cycle and its depiction in the community climate system model. Journal of Climate 17: 930-951.
28. Dai A, Fung IY, Del Genio AD. 1997. Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900-88. Journal of Climate 10: 2943-2962.
29. Dai A, Meehl GA, Washington WM, Wigley TML. 2001. Climate changes in the 21st century over the Asia-Pacific region simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 18: 639-658.
30. Dai Y, Zeng X, Dickenson RE, Backer I, Bonan GB, Bosilovich MG, Denning AS, Dirmeyer PA, Houser PR, Niu G, Oleson KW, Schlosser CA, Yang ZL. 2003. The Common Land Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1013-1023.
31. Dingman SL. 1994. Physical Hydrology. Prentice-Hall: New Jersey; 575.
32. DNR. 2000. Department of Natural Resources, Alaska Wildland fire coordination group. Fire and Smoke in Alaska, U.S. Government printing office, 573-278/21012, region 8.
33. Douville H, Chauvin F, Planton S, Royer JF, Salas-Mélia D, Tyteca S. 2002. Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate Dynamics 20: 45-68.
34. Eltahir EAB, Bras RL. 1996. Precipitation recycling. Reviews of Geophysics 34: 367-378.
35. Flato GM, Boer GJ, Lee WG, McFarlane NA, Ramsden D, Reader MC, Weaver AJ. 2000. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Climate Dynamics 16: 451-467.
36. Furevik T, Bentsen M, Drange H, Kindem IKT, Kvamstø NG, Sorteberg A. 2003. Description and evaluation of the Bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM. Climate Dynamics 21: 27-51.
37. Hack J. 1994. Parameterization of moist convection in the national center for atmospheric research community climate model (CCM2). Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 5551-5568.
38. Hartmann B, Wendler G. 2005. The significance of the 1976 Pacific climate shift in the climatology of Alaska. Journal of Climate 18: 4824-4839.
39. Holland MM. 2003. The North Atlantic oscillation in the CCSM2 and its influence on Arctic climate variability. Journal of Climate 16: 2767-2781.
40. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Hunke EC, Lipscomb WH, Schramm JL. 2006. Influence of the sea ice thickness distribution on polar climate in CCSM3. Journal of Climate 19: 2398-2414.
41. Houghton JT, Jenkins TJ, Ephraums JJ. 1990. Climate change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 365.
42. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K. 1996. Climate change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. IPCC Second Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 572.
43. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA. 2001. IPCC Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 36-40.
44. Johns TC, Carnell RE, Crossley JF, Gregory JM, Mitchell JFB, Senior CA, Tett SFB, Wood RA. 1997. The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dynamics 13: 103-134.
45. Kiehl JT, Gent PR. 2004. The Community Climate System Model, version 2. Journal of Climate 17: 3666-3682.
46. Kiehl JT, Shields CA, Hack JJ, Collins WD. 2006. The climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate 19: 2584-2596.
47. Leathers DJ, Yarnal B, Palecki MA. 1991. The Pacific North America teleconnection pattern and the United States climate. Part I: regional temperature and precipitation association. Journal of Climate 4: 517-528.
48. L'Heureux ML, Mann ME, Cook BI, Gleason BE, Vose RS. 2004. Atmospheric circulation influences on seasonal precipitation patterns in Alaska during the latter 20th century. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: D06106, Doi:10.1029/2003JD003845.
49. 2 on the interaction between the regional and global water cycle in four study regions. Climate Dynamics. Doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0283-4.
50. Loose T, Bornstein RD. 1977. Observations of mesoscale effects on frontal movement through an urban area. Monthly Weather Review 105: 562-571.
51. 2 and sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 9: 345-362.
52. Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer JR. 2000. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 313-318.
53. Meehl GA, Washington WM, Collins WD, Arblaster JM, Hu A, Lawrence DM, Teng H, Buja LE, Strand WG. 2006. Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. Journal of Climate 19: 2597-2616.
54. Mitchell JFB. 1989. The greenhouse effect and climate change. Reviews of Geophysics 27: 115-139.
55. Mölders N. 2000. Similarity of microclimate as simulated in response to landscapes of the 1930s and the 1980s. Journal of Hydrometeorology 1: 330-352.
56. Mölders N, Olson M. 2004. Impact of urban effects on precipitation in high latitudes. Journal of Hydrometeorolgy 5: 409-429.
57. Mölders N, Kramm G. 2007. Influence of wildfire induced land-cover changes on clouds and precipitation in interior Alaska-A case study. Atmospheric Research 84: 142-168.
58. Montgomery DC. 1976. Design and Analysis of Experiments. Wiley and Sons: New York; 418.
59. Narapusetty B, Mölders N. 2005. Evaluation of snow depth and soil temperatures predicted by the hydro-thermodynamic soilvegetation scheme coupled with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR mesoscale model. Journal of Applied Meteorology 44: 1827-1843.
60. Níu GY, Yang ZL, Dickinson RE, Gulden LE. 2005. A simple TOPMODEL-based runoff parameterization (SIMTOP) for use in GCMs. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D21106, Doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006111.
61. Pearson ES, Hartley HO. 1972. Biometrika Tables for Statisticians, Vol 2. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 65.
62. Pielke RA, Marland G, Betts RA, Chase TN, Eastman JL, Niles JO, Niyogi DS, Running SW. 2002. The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Land 360: 1705-1719.
63. Podur J, Martell DL, Knight K. 2002. Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32: 195-205.
64. Rasch PJ, Kristjánsson JE. 1998. A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameterizations. Journal of Climate 11: 1587-1614.
65. 2. Journal of Geophysical Research 101D: 7321-7339.
66. Rodwell MJ, Rowell DP, Folland CK. 1999. Oceanic forcing of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398: 320-323.
67. Rossow WB, Schiffer RA. 1999. Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 2261-2288.
68. Rossow WB, Walker AW, Beuschel DE, Roiter MD. 1996. Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Description of New Cloud Datasets. World Climate Research Programme, WMO/TD 737, 115.
69. Rowell DP. 1998. Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. Journal of Climate 11: 109-120.
70. Sheridan SC. 2003. North American weather-type frequency and teleconnection indices. International Journal of Climatology 23: 27-45.
71. Smith RD, Dukowicz JK, Malone RC. 1992. Parallel ocean general circulation modeling. Physica D60: 38-61.
72. Stocks BJ, Fosberg MA, Wotton BM, Lynham TJ, Ryan KC. 2000. Climate change and forest fire activity in North American boreal forests. In Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in North American Boreal Forest, Kasischke ES, Stocks BJ (eds). Springer: New York; 368-376.
73. Stocks BJ, Fosberg MA, Lynham TJ, Mearns L, Wotton BM, Yang Q, Jin ZJ, Lawrence K, Hartley GR, Mason JA, Mckenney DW. 1998. Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change 38: 1-13.
74. Stohlgren TJ, Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Baron JS. 1998. Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate, vegetation, and stream flow patterns in adjacent natural areas. Global Change Biology 4: 495-504.
75. Su F, Adam JC, Trenberth KE, Lettenmaier DP. 2006. Evaluation of surface water fluxes of the pan-Arctic land region with a land surface model and ERA-40 reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05110, Doi:10.1029/2005JD006387.
76. Sud YC, Walker GK, Kim JH, Liston GE, Sellers PJ, Lau KWM. 1996. Biogeophysical consequences of a tropical deforestation scenario: A GCM simulation study. Journal of Climate 9: 3225-3247.
77. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA. 2006. Going to the extremes. An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79: 185-211.
78. Teng H, Washington WM, Meehl GA, Buja LE, Strand GW. 2006. Twenty-first century Arctic climate change in the CCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations. Climate Dynamics 26: 601-616.
79. Trenberth KE. 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 71: 988-993.
80. Trenberth KE. 1998. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling implications for rainfall rates and climate change. Climate Dynamics 39: 667-694.
81. Trigo RM, Osborn TJ, Corte-Real JM. 2002. The North Atlantic oscillation influence on physical mechanisms. Climate Research 20: 9-17.
82. Uppala S, Kallberg P, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Bechtold VDC, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131: 2961-3012.
83. US Census. 2006. http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/SAFF Population?∅ent=Search&∇me=&§ate= 04000US08&_county=&t̂yTown=&_zip=&_sse= on&∧ng=en&pctxt=fph.
84. von Storch H, Zwiers FW. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 115.
85. Weatherald RT, Manabe S. 2002. Simulation of hydrological changes associated with global warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 4379-4394.
86. Westerling AL, Gershunov A, Brown TJ, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD. 2003. Climate and wildfire in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 595-604.
87. Wilks DS. 1995. Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press: San Diego; 467.
88. Yamazaki K. 1989. A study on the impact of soil moisture and snow albedo changes on global climate using the MRI GCM-1. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 67: 123-146.
89. Yang F, Kumar A, Schlesinger ME, Wang W. 2003. Intensity of hydrological cycles in warmer climates. Journal of Climate 16: 2419-2423.
90. Yang D, Goodison BE, Metcalfe JR, Golubev VS, Bates R, Pangburn T, Hanson CL. 1998. Accuracy of NWS 8 "standard nonrecording precipitation gauge: Results and application of WMO intercomparison. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 15: 54-68.
91. Zhang GJ, McFarlane NA. 1995. Role of convective scale momentum transport in climate simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research 100: 1417-1426.
92. Zhang H, McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A. 1996. Impacts of tropical deforestation. Part II: The role of large-scale dynamics. Journal of Climate 9: 2498-2521.
93. Zhang GJ, Kiehl JT, Rache PJ. 1998. Response of climate simulation to a new convective parameterization in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM3). Journal of Climate 11: 2097-2115.
94. Zhao M, Pitman AJ, Chase TN. 2001. Climatic impact of land-cover changes at different carbon dioxide levels. Climate Research 17: 1-18.
95. Zhong S, In HJ, Bian X, Charney J, Heilman W, Potter B. 2005. Evaluation of real-time high-resolution MM5 predictions over the Great Lakes region. Monthly Weather Review 20: 63-81.
96. Zwiers FW. 1996. Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Climate Dynamics 12: 825-847.