An Architecture for Adaptive Robust Modelling of Wildfire Behaviour under Deep Uncertainty

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

Volumn 413, Issue , 2013, Pages 367-380

  de Rigo, Daniele ^a,b   Rodriguez Aseretto, Dario ^a   Bosco, Claudio ^c   Di Leo, Margherita ^b   San Miguel Ayanz, Jesús ^b  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

^c LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Deep Uncertainty; Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management; Semantic Array Programming; Wildfire Behaviour

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH; COMPUTER SOFTWARE; FIRE HAZARDS; FIRES; FORESTRY; MEMORY ARCHITECTURE; METADATA; NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT; SEMANTICS;

ARRAY PROGRAMMING; DEEP UNCERTAINTIES; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; METEOROLOGICAL DISTURBANCE; METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION; MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACH; SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCALE; WILDFIRE BEHAVIOUR;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

COMPUTER PROGRAMS; FIRES; FORESTRY; HAZARDS; MANAGEMENT; NATURAL RESOURCES; SIMULATION;

EID: 84884637730     PISSN: 18684238     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-41151-9_35     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (84)

1. Bengtsson, J., Nilsson, S.G., Franc, A., Menozzi, P.: Biodiversity, disturbances, ecosystem function andmanagement of European forests. For. Ecol. Manage. 132(1), 39-50 (2000)
2. Turner, M.G.: Landscape ecology: What is the state of the science? Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 36(1), 319-344 (2005)
3. Turner, M.G.: Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world. Ecology 91(10), 2833-2849 (2010)
4. Seidl, R., Fernandes, P.M., Fonseca, T.F., Gillet, F., Jönsson, A.M., et al.: Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review. Ecol. Model. 222(4), 903-924 (2011)
5. de Rigo, D.: Behind the horizon of reproducible integrated environmental modelling at European scale: ethics and practice of scientific knowledge freedom. F1000 Research (submitted 2013)
6. San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Schulte, E., Schmuck, G., Camia, A., Strobl, P., et al.: Comprehensive Monitoring of Wildfires in Europe: The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). In: Tiefenbacher, J. (ed.) Approaches to Managing Disaster-AssessingHazards, Emergencies andDisaster Impacts, ch. 5. InTech (2012)
7. Díaz-Delgado, R., Lloret, F., Pons, X., Terradas, J.: Satellite evidence of decreasing resilience in Mediterranean plant communities after recurrent wildfires. Ecology 83(8), 2293-2303 (2002)
8. Pausas, J.G., Llovet, J., Rodrigo, A., Vallejo, R.: Are wildfires a disaster in the Mediterranean basin?-a review. Int. J. Wildland Fire 17(6), 713 (2008)
9. Rodriguez-Aseretto, D., de Rigo, D., Di Leo, M., Cortés, A., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: A data-driven model for large wildfire behaviour prediction in Europe. Procedia Computer Science 18, 1861-1870 (2013)
10. Barnaba, F., Angelini, F., Curci, G., Gobbi, G.P.: An important fingerprint of wildfires on the European aerosol load. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11(20), 10487-10501 (2011)
11. Saarikoski, S., Hillamo, R.: Wildfires as a source of aerosol particles transported to the northern european regions. In: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, pp. 1-21. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)
12. de Rigo, D.: Software Uncertainty in Integrated Environmental Modelling: the role of Semantics and Open Science. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 15, 13292 (2013)
13. deRigo, D.: SemanticArrayProgramming forEnvironmentalModelling:Application of theMastrave Library. In: Int. Congress on EnvironmentalModelling and Software. Managing Resources of a Limited Plant, Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty, Sixth Biennial Meeting, pp. 1167-1176 (2012)
14. de Rigo, D.: Semantic array programming with Mastrave-introduction to semantic computational modelling (2012)
15. de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Toward Open Science at the European Scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 15, 13245 (2013)
16. de Rigo, D., Guariso, G.: Rewarding Open Science: A Collaborative Review System for Semantically-Enhanced Free Software and Environmental Data Modelling (in prep., 2013)
17. Bosco, C., de Rigo, D., Dijkstra, T., Sander, G., Wasowski, J.: Multi-Scale Robust Modelling of Landslide Susceptibility: Regional Rapid Assessment and Catchment Robust Fuzzy Ensemble. In: Hřebíček, J., Schimak, G., Kubásek, M., Rizzoli, A. (eds.) ISESS 2013. IFIP AICT, vol. 413, pp. 321-335. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)
18. Bosco, C., de Rigo, D., Dewitte, O., Poesen, J., Panagos, P.: Modelling Soil Erosion at European Scale. Towards Harmonization and Reproducibility (in prep.)
19. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C.: Architecture of a pan-european framework for integrated soil water erosion assessment. In: Hřebíček, J., Schimak, G., Denzer, R. (eds.) ISESS 2011. IFIP AICT, vol. 359, pp. 310-318. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)
20. de Rigo, D., Barredo, J.I., Busetto, L., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Continental-Scale Living Forest Biomass and Carbon Stock: a Robust Fuzzy Ensemble of IPCC Tier 1 Maps for Europe. In: Hřebíček, J., Schimak, G., Kubásek, M., Rizzoli, A. (eds.) ISESS 2013. IFIP AICT, vol. 413, pp. 271-284. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)
21. Barredo, J.I., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Caudullo, G., Busetto, L.: A European map of living forest biomass and carbon stock. In: Reference Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. EUR-Scientific and Technical Research, vol. 25730 (2012)
22. Darema, F.: Dynamic Data Driven Applications Systems: A New Paradigm for Application Simulations and Measurements. In: Bubak, M., van Albada, G.D., Sloot, P.M.A., Dongarra, J. (eds.) ICCS 2004. LNCS, vol. 3038, pp. 662-669. Springer, Heidelberg (2004)
23. Denham, M., Cortés, A., Margalef, T., Luque, E.: Applying a Dynamic Data Driven Genetic Algorithm to Improve Forest Fire Spread Prediction. In: Bubak, M., van Albada, G.D., Dongarra, J., Sloot, P.M.A. (eds.) ICCS 2008, Part III. LNCS, vol. 5103, pp. 36-45. Springer, Heidelberg (2008)
24. Castelletti, A., de Rigo, D., Tepsich, L., Soncini-Sessa, R., Weber, E.: On-Line design of water reservoir policies based on inflow prediction. IFAC-PapersOnLine 17, 14540-14545 (2008)
25. Di Leo, M., de Rigo, D., Rodriguez-Aseretto, D., Bosco, C., Petroliagkis, T., Camia, A., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Dynamic Data Driven Ensemble for Wildfire Behaviour Assessment: A Case Study. In: Hřebíček, J., Schimak, G., Kubásek, M., Rizzoli, A. (eds.) ISESS 2013. IFIP AICT, vol. 413, pp. 11-22. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)
26. Stallman, R.M.: Viewpoint: Why "open source" misses the point of free software. Commun. ACM 52(6), 31-33 (2009)
27. Rodriguez Aseretto, D., Di Leo, M., de Rigo, D., Corti, P., McInerney, D., et al.: Free and Open Source Software underpinning the European Forest Data Centre. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 15, 12101 (2013)
28. Richardson, L.A., Champ, P.A., Loomis, J.B.: The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in southern California. J. For. Econ. 18(1), 14-35 (2012)
29. Herrando, S., Brotons, L., Llacuna, S.: Does fire increase the spatial heterogeneity of bird communities in Mediterranean landscapes? Ibis 145(2), 307-317 (2003)
30. Torre, I., Díaz, M.: Small mammal abundance in Mediterranean post-fire habitats: a role for predators? Acta Oecologica 25(3), 137-142 (2004)
31. Estreguil, C., Caudullo, G., de Rigo, D., Whitmore, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Reporting on European forest fragmentation: Standardized indices and web map services. IEEE Earthzine 5(2), 384031 (2012); 2nd quarter theme: Forest Resource Information
32. Estreguil, C., Caudullo, G., de Rigo, D., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: Forest landscape in Europe: pattern, fragmentation and connectivity. EUR-Scientific and Technical Research 25717(JRC 77295) (2013)
33. Moreira, F., Russo, D.: Modelling the impact of agricultural abandonment and wildfires on vertebrate diversity in Mediterranean Europe. Landsc. Ecol. 22(10), 1461-1476 (2007)
34. Di Piazza, G.V., Di Stefano, C., Ferro, V.: Modelling the effects of a bushfire on erosion in a mediterranean basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 52(6), 1253-1270 (2007)
35. Moody, J.A., Martin, D.A., Haire, S.L., Kinner, D.A.: Linking runoff response to burn severity after a wildfire. Hydrol. Proces. 22(13), 2063-2074 (2008)
36. Candela, A., Aronica, G., Santoro, M.: Effects of forest fires on flood frequency curves in a Mediterranean catchment. J. Hydrol. Sci. 50(2), 193-206 (2005)
37. Rulli, M.C., Rosso, R.: Hydrologic response of upland catchments to wildfires. Adv. Water Resour. 30(10), 2072-2086 (2007)
38. Ice, G.G., Neary, D.G., Adams, P.W.: Effects of wildfire on soils and watershed processes. J. Forestry 102(6), 16-20 (2004)
39. Shakesby, R., Doerr, S.: Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent. Earth Sci. Rev. 74(3-4), 269-307 (2006)
40. Smith, H.G., Sheridan, G.J., Lane, P.N.J., Nyman, P., Haydon, S.: Wildfire effects on water quality in forest catchments: a review with implications for water supply. J. Hydrol. 396(1-2), 170-192 (2011)
41. Smith, H.G., Blake, W.H., Owens, P.N.:Discriminating fine sediment sources and the application of sediment tracers in burned catchments: a review. Hydrol. Proces. 27(6), 943-958 (2013)
42. Krawchuk, M.A., Moritz, M.A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., Hayhoe, K.: Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4), e5102 (2009)
43. Pautasso, M., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Holdenrieder, O., Pietravalle, S., Salama, N., et al.: Plant health and global change some implications for landscape management. Biol. Rev. 85(4), 729-755 (2010)
44. Nijhuis, M.: Forest fires: Burn out. Nature 489(7416), 352-354 (2012)
45. Hou, Y., Burkhard, B., Müller, F.: Uncertainties in landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment. J. Env. Manag. (2013)
46. Spangenberg, J.H., Settele, J.: Precisely incorrect?Monetising the value of ecosystem services. Ecol. Complex. 7(3), 327-337 (2010)
47. de Rigo, D.: Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management: minimal redefinition of a known challenge for environmental modelling. Excerpt from the Call for a Shared Research Agenda Toward Scientific Knowledge Freedom, Maieutike Research Initiative (2012)
48. Hollingsworth, A., Engelen, R., Textor, C., Benedetti, A., Boucher, O., et al.: Toward a monitoring and forecasting system for atmospheric composition. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 89(8), 1147-1164 (2008)
49. Bouttier, F.: The Météo-France NWP system: description, recent changes and plans. CNRM (2010)
50. Perry, G.L.W.: Current approaches tomodelling the spread of wildland fire:Areview. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 22(2), 222-245 (1998)
51. Andrews, P., Finney, M., Fischetti, M.: Predicting wildfires. Sci. American 297(2), 46-55 (2007)
52. Countryman, C.M.: The concept of fire environment. Fire Manag. Today 64(1), 49-52 (2004)
53. Viegas, D.X.: Parametric study of an eruptive fire behaviour model. Int. J. Wildland Fire 15(2), 169 (2006)
54. Rodriguez Aseretto, R., Cortés, A., Margalef, T., Luque, E.: An Adaptive System for Forest Fire Behavior Prediction. In: 11th IEEE Int. Conf. on Computational Science and Engineering, CSE 2008, pp. 275-282 (2008)
55. Bellman, R., Kalaba, R.: On adaptive control processes. IRE Transactions on Autom. Control 4(2), 1-9 (1959)
56. Wang, F.-Y., Zhang, H., Liu, D.: AdaptiveDynamic Programming: An Introduction. IEEE Computational Intell. Mag. 4(2), 39-47 (2009)
57. Lara, M., Doyen, L.: Sustainable Management of Natural Resources: Mathematical Models and Methods. Springer (2008)
58. Rani, D., Moreira, M.: Simulation-Optimization Modeling: A Survey and Potential Application in Reservoir Systems Operation. Water Resour. Manag. 24(6), 1107-1138 (2010)
59. Ferreira, L., Constantino, M.F., Borges, J.G., Garcia-Gonzalo, J.: A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach to Optimize Short-Rotation Coppice Systems Management Scheduling: An Application to Eucalypt Plantations under Wildfire Risk in Portugal. Forest Sci. 58(4), 353-365 (2012)
60. Minas, J.P., Hearne, J.W., Handmer, J.W.: A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management. Int. J. Wildland Fire 21(3), 189 (2012)
61. Lee, J.M., Lee, J.H.: Approximate dynamic programming strategies and their applicability for process control: a review and future directions. Int. J. Control Autom. Syst. 2(3), 263-278 (2004)
62. de Rigo, D., Rizzoli, A.E., Soncini-Sessa, R., Weber, E., Zenesi, P.: Neuro-dynamic programming for the efficient management of reservoir networks. In: Proceedings of MODSIM 2001, Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation Held in Canberra, Australia, vol. 4, pp. 1949-1954 (2001) ISBN: 0-867405252
63. de Rigo, D., Castelletti, A., Rizzoli, A.E., Soncini-Sessa, R., Weber, E.: A selective improvement technique for fastening neuro-dynamic programming in water resources network management. IFAC-PapersOnLine 16, 7-12 (2005)
64. de Rigo, D.: Applying semantic constraints to array programming: the module "check_is" of the Mastrave modelling library. Mastrave Project Technical Report (2011)
65. Bevins, C.D.: FireLib user manual and technical reference. Systems for Environmental Management (1996)
66. Rothermel, R.: How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden (1983)
67. Neteler, M., Bowman, M.H., Landa, M., Metz, M.: GRASS GIS: A multi-purpose open source GIS. Environmental Modelling & Software 31, 124-130 (2012)
68. Xu, J., Lathrop, R.G.: GRASS GIS manual: r. spread. In: GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2006)
69. Xu, J.: GRASS GIS manual: r. ros. In: GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2009)
70. Andrews, P., Lloyd, P.: Fire modeling and information system technology. Int. J. Wildland Fire 10(4), 343-352 (2001)
71. Certini, G.: Effects of fire on properties of forest soils: A review. Oecologia 143, 1-10 (2005)
72. DeBano, L.F.: The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wildland environments: A review. J. Hydrol. 231-232, 195-206 (2000)
73. Letey, J.: Causes and consequences of fire-induced soil water repellency. Hydrol. Processes 15, 2867-2875 (2001)
74. Swanson, F.J.: Fire and Geomorphic Processes. In: Gen. Tech. Rep. USDA For. Serv. WO-26. Washington DC. pp. 401-420 (1981)
75. Pack, R.T., Tarboton, D.G., Goodwin, C.N.: The SINMAP Approach to Terrain Stability Mapping. In: 8th Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1998)
76. Pack, R.T., Tarboton, D.G., Goodwin, C.N., Prasad, A.: SINMAP 2. A Stability Index Approach to Terrain Stability Hazard Mapping, technical description and users guide for version 2.0. Utah State University (2005)
77. Bosco, C., de Rigo, D., Dewitte, O., Montanarella, L.: Towards the reproducibility in soil erosion modeling: a new Pan-European soil erosion map. In: Wageningen conference on applied soil science: 'Soil Science in a Changing World, p. 209 (2011)
78. Panagos, P., Jones, A., Bosco, C., Senthil Kumar, P.S.: European digital archive on soil maps (EuDASM): preserving important soil data for public free access. Int. J. of Digital Earth 4(5), 434-443 (2011)
79. Myneni, R.B., Williams, D.L.: On the relationship between FAPAR and NDVI. Remote Sensing of Environment 49(3), 200-211 (1994)
80. Kinnell, P.I.A.: Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review. Journal of Hydrology 385, 384-397 (2010)
81. Angima, S.D., Stott, D.E., O'Neill, M.K., Ong, C.K., Weesies, G.: Soil erosion prediction using RUSLE for central Kenyan highland conditions. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 97, 295-308 (2003)
82. Bosco, C., Rusco, E., Montanarella, L., Panagos, P.: Soil erosion in the Alpine area: risk assessment and climate change. Studi Trent. Sci. Nat. 85, 117-123 (2009)
83. Cerdá, A., Doerr, S.H.: The effect of ash and needle cover on surface runoff and erosion in the immediate post-fire period. Catena 74, 256-263 (2008)
84. Barbosa, P., Camia, A., Kucera, J., Libertà, G., Palumbo, I., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Schmuck, G.: Assessment of Forest Fire Impacts and Emissions in the European Union Based on the European Forest Fire Information System. Developments in Environmental Science 8, 197-208 (2008)