Korean endgame: A strategy for reunification and U.S. disengagement

Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages

  Harrison, Selig S ^a  

^a NONE

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References (521)

1. This figure has been compiled primarily from the annual tables from 1972 to 1977 in World Armaments and Disarmament (Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell), the yearbook published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and from the annual tables from 1963 to 1975 in World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, published by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. These estimates were based on intelligence sources and media reports in addition to the limited published Soviet and Chinese data. Credible fragmentary evidence from my own intelligence sources and a wide variety of published sources was also taken into account (e.g., the Defense White Papers of the Republic of Korea, especially those for 1989 and 1990).
2. See Chung Il Kwon, interview by the John Foster Dulles Oral History Project, Princeton University Library, October 12, 1965, p. 3. For the most authoritative historical accounts of this controversial period
3. see Chang Il Oh, "The 1953 Armistice Negotiations," in Korea and the Cold War, ed. K. C. Baum and J. I. Matray (Claremont, Calif.: Regina Books, 1993), pp. 220-225; Foreign Rela tions of the United States, 1952-54, vol. 15: Korea (U.S. Department of State: Washington, D.C., 1984), 1368-69; and Max Hastings, The Korean War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987), p. 325.
4. Foreign Military Sales, Foreign Military Construction Sales and Military Assistance Facts, Department of Defense, September 30, 1998, pp. 53-54. Fiscal year 1998 data provided by the Arms Sales Monitoring Project, Federation of American Scientists. For fiscal year 1999, see the statement of Gen. Thomas A. Schwartz, commander, U.S. forces in Korea, Senate Armed Services Committee, March 7, 2000.
5. R. Jeffrey Smith, "U.S. Accord with North Korea May Open Country to Change," Washington Post, October 23, 1994, p. A36.
6. Jim Hoagland, "The Trojan Horse at North Korea's Gate," Washington Post, August 2, 1995, p. A25.
7. Jim Mann, "U.S. Watches North Korea for Signs of Collapse," Los Angeles Times, February 12, 1996, p. 1.
8. This was recounted in a presentation titled "New Prospects for Dialogue with North Korea" at a meeting of the North Korea Working Group, U.S. Institute of Peace, Washington, D.C., March 31, 1998.
9. James Bennet, "Under the Spotlight in China, Gore Lacked Luster," New York Times, March 30, 1996, p. 14.
10. Tokuma Utsonomiya, Hankyo Ideologie Gaiko o Haisu (I oppose anti-Communist ideological diplomacy) (Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten), 1966, pp. 48, 54.
11. Carter Eckert, "Korean Reunification in Historical Perspective" (paper prepared for a conference on Korean reunification sponsored by Seoul Shinmun, February 3, 1996), p. 7.
12. Callum A. MacDonald, Korea: The War before Vietnam (London: Macmillan, 1986), p. 234.
13. Army Command Reports, 1949-54, cited in Callum A. MacDonald, "'So Terrible a Liberation': The U.N. Occupation of North Korea," Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars 23, no. 2 (1991): 17.
14. W. Karig, M. W. Cagle, and F. A. Manson, Battle Report: The War in Korea (New York: Farrar and Rinehart, 1952), pp. 111-112, cited in MacDonald, "'So Terrible a Liberation,'" p. 16.
15. Cited in Bruce Cumings, "It's Time to End the 40-Year War," The Nation, August 23, 1993, p. 206.
16. Stephen Endicott and Edward Hagemann, The United States and Biological Warfare: Secrets from the Early Cold War and Korea (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1998), esp. pp. 1-26, 88-106.
17. MacDonald, "'So Terrible a Liberation,'" esp. pp. 6-15.
18. Chosun Ilbo, September 27, 1963, p. 1. See also Official Biography, Ministry of Culture and Information, Republic of Korea, April 1969, p. 5.
19. O Yong Jin, Hana ui Chunyon (One witness account) (Pusan: Kungmin Sasang Chidowan, 1952), p. 141.
20. Kyung Hyun Kim, "Fractured Cinema: The Discourse of Nation in Sea of Blood" (University of Colorado, 1997), p. 3.
21. Bruce Cumings, "The Corporate State in North Korea," in State and Society in Contemporary Korea, ed. Hagen Koo (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 213.
22. Han S. Park, "The Nature and Evolution of Juche Ideology," in North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy, ed. Han S. Park (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1996), p. 12.
23. Eckert, "Korean Reunification in Historical Perspective," p. 40.
24. Bernard Krisher, "Report from North Korea," Gekkan Asahi, September 1991, p. 15.
25. Nicholas Kristof, "Great Leader to Dear Leader," New York Times Magazine, August 20, 1989, pp. 45-46.
26. Kim Il Sung, interview by Rev. Kwon H. Hyung, Seoul, May 3, 1998.
27. Kim Il Sung, With the Century: 1 (Pyongyang: Foreign Languages Publishing House, 1992), pp. 106-107.
28. Cumings, "The Corporate State in North Korea," p. 209.
29. K. A. Namkung, "The American Role in Korean Reunification" (an address at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, May 28, 1996).
30. Kim Jong Il, "Our Sovereignty Must Be Our Priority," Korean Central News Agency, October 10, 1998.
31. Thomas Hosuck Kang, Why the North Koreans Behave As They Do (Washington, D.C.: Center for Dao-Confucianism, 1994), p. 123.
32. Gregory Henderson, Korea: The Politics of the Vortex (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1968), pp. 29-32, 312-333.
33. Bruce Cumings, "The Corporate State in North Korea," in State and Society in Contemporary Korea, ed. Hagen Koo (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), pp. 199-200.
34. Masao Maruyama, Thought and Behavior in Modern Japanese Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 1969), p. 36.
35. Cumings, "The Corporate State in North Korea," p. 204.
36. Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76 (July-August 1997): 115-116.
37. George M. McCune, Korea Today (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1950), p. 140.
38. Harrison Salisbury, To Peking-And Beyond: A Report on the New Asia (New York: Quadrangle, 1973), pp. 200, 199.
39. United Nations Development Program, Monthly Report, New York, September 1987, p. 10.
40. Kulloja, Pyongyang, November 1987, p. 8.
41. Frank Zeigler, interview by the author, Koryo Hotel, Pyongyang, September 26, 1987.
42. John Merrill, "North Korea's Halting Efforts at Economic Reform" (paper delivered at the Fourth Conference on North Korea sponsored by the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, and the Korean Association of Communist Studies, Seoul, August 7-11, 1989).
43. Kim Jong U, "North Korea's External Economic Policy" (paper prepared for a conference titled "Korea: Prospects for Economic Development," sponsored by the Sigur Center for East Studies, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., April 22-23, 1996), pp. 3-6.
44. Damon Darlin, "Reporter's Notebook: Pyongyang Lets Visitors Roam Free-Within Limits," Wall Street Journal, May 13, 1992, p. A10.
45. Bradley O. Babson, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., April 3, 1998.
46. Edwin Truman, assistant secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, quoted by Agence France Press, May 7, 2000.
47. "U.S. Denies A.D.B. Visas," Chosun Ilbo, April 29, 2001, p. 10.
48. Bradley O. Babson, "Vietnam and North Korea: Seven C's for Comparison" (paper delivered at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, April 24, 1998), p. 4.
49. UNDP Thematic Roundtable on Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," Pyongyang, May 1998, p. 4, a report prepared for a conference on North Korean agricultural self-sufficiency sponsored by the UNDP, Geneva, May 28-29, 1998.
50. Bradley O. Babson, "The North Korean Economy Today" (paper delivered at the U.S. Institute of Peace, January 4, 1999).
51. "President Says North Korea Taking First Steps toward Openness," Korea Herald, October 1, 1998, p. 2.
52. Lee Ho Chul, "Recent Changes in North Korea and Its Information Technology Revolution" (paper prepared for the Eleventh U.S.-Korea Academic Symposium, "The Korean Peninsula in the Twenty-First Century," sponsored by the Korea Economic Institute of America, Washington, D.C., September 18-19, 2000), p. 20.
53. Yoon Jung Ho, "North Korea Joins Intelsat," Chosun Ilbo, May 29, 2001, p. 2.
54. Li Hyung Cho, "Seoul to Help North Korea Build Satellite-Based Internet Access System," Korea Herald, June 28, 2001, p. 5.
55. Tao Bing Wei, "Some Views on the Question of the Korean Peninsula," (paper delivered at a seminar on North Korea sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, November 26, 1996), p. 46.
56. Erich and Marilyn Weingartner, "North Korea: Is Aid the Answer?" (The Dorothy and David Lam Lecture, University of Victoria, British Columbia, October 15, 1999). See abridged version in NAPSNet, published by the Nautilus Institute, December 13, 1999, p. 2.
57. Ri Dong Gu, "Some Thoughts on the Adjustment of Farmers Market Prices," Kim Il Sung University Gazette 44, no. 33 (1998): 14.
58. Jee Hae Bom, "North Korea to Introduce Farmers' Contract," Chosun Ilbo, March 3, 2001. Datelined Beijing, this report cites Chinese government sources.
59. Adrian Buzo, The Guerrilla Dynasty (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1999), pp. 246-247.
60. Aidan Foster-Carter, ed., North Korea Report, Seoul, October 1996, p. 12.
61. Park Choon Ho, interview by the author, Seoul, May 6, 1999.
62. Kim Mun Song, "The Foreign Economic Policy of the D.P.R.K." (address at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, January 26, 1998).
63. Marcus Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2000), pp. 93-95.
64. For accounts of the negotiations between North Korea and a consortium of Western banks in 1987 and 1988, see Stephen Fidler, "Banks at Odds over North Korean Deal," Financial Times, July 19, 1988, p. 25; and Fidler, "Bank Launches Court Action on North Korea," Financial Times, June 4, 1990, p. 20. The negotiations collapsed when Australian and west European banks split over the terms of the settlement. See also Robert Steiner, "A Few Fund Managers See Value in Pyongyang Debt," Asian Wall Street Journal, November 29, 1993, p. 10.
65. Bruce Cumings, The Origins of the Korean War, vol. 2 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990), pp. 141-52, esp. p. 143.
66. See also Fred Harvey Harrington, God, Mammon and the Japanese (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1966), pp. 144-65; and Cumings, Korea's Place in the Sun (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), pp. 24-27.
67. "Mining in the DPRK: Prospects for Sectoral Opening" (report of a seminar sponsored by the National Mining Association in cooperation with the Atlantic Council of the United States, August 19, 1997), p. 46.
68. Alex Stewart, "Glimmers of Hope Seen in North Korean Basins, Markets," Oil and Gas Journal, January 4, 1999, pp. 62-65. The author has also conducted continuing discussions with Jae Nang Sohn of the Hyundai Engineering and Construction Company, who is concerned with North Korean oil prospects, and Myong In Sung, a Houston-based energy consultant who is assisting North Korea in finding foreign exploration partners.
69. Lee Kyo Kwan, "North Korea Produces Crude Oil," Chosun Ilbo, May 27, 2001, p. 1.
70. Carbohydrate Potential of the DPRK West Bay Basin, a confidential report by Busuph Park, president, Global Oil Survey Company, Beijing. The author wishes to thank Busuph Park for making this report available and sharing his insights on petroleum prospects in North Korea.
71. "Hyundai Sees Oil Prospects," Chosun Ilbo, September 18, 1998, p. 4.
72. Chosun Ilbo, August 17, 2000, p. 2.
73. Doug Struck, "Albright Visit Brings Red Carpet," Washington Post, October 25, 2000, p. 2.
74. Jim Hoagland, "The Week That Was," Washington Post, October 15, 2000, p. A23.
75. Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul, June 14, 2000, p. 5. The luncheon was held on August 12. Translations from the South Korean media were done for the author by Kim Tae Kyung of Hankyoreh Shinmun. A transcript of the luncheon dialogue prepared by the participating editors was reported by the Yonhap News Agency, Seoul, and translated by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service on August 14 (KPP20000814000035).
76. Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 14, 2000, p. 5.
77. See also Chosun Ilbo, June 16, 2000, p. 13.
78. Kookmin Daily, June 24, 2000, p. 6.
79. Shin Dong: A Monthly, Seoul, September 2000, p. 6.
80. John Burton, "Mr. Kim's Dazzling Debut," Financial Times, June 17/18, 2000, p. 19.
81. Antonio Betancourt, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., May 3, 1992.
82. Elaine Sciolino, "Blurred Images of North Korea's 'Junior'," New York Times, July 17, 1994, p. 1. See also an interview with Baeli by Tetsuo Sakamoto in Sankei Shimbun, Tokyo, October 17, 1992, morning edition, p. 4.
83. Nayan Chanda, "Vital Signs," Far Eastern Economic Review, March 14, 1996, p. 16.
84. Li Nam Ok, interview by Maeng Ho Choi, Dong A Ilbo, Seoul, March 20, 1997, p. 20.
85. Li Nam Ok, interview by Ray Suarez, National Public Radio, Talk of the Nation, October 7, 1997.
86. Li Nam Ok, interview by Maeng. See also Flammetta Rocco, "Why I Had to Flee My Country," Daily Telegraph, London, September 30, 1997.
87. Bungei Shunju, Tokyo, February 10, 1998, pp. 274-292.
88. The CIA English-language text made available to me by the author, dated November 30, 1987, never published, was titled The Kingdom of Kim Jong Il. The Korean edition was titled Choguk-un Chohanul Chomolli (Diary: The motherland is beyond the sky and far away) (Pacific Palisades, Calif.: Pacific Artist Corporation, 1988).
89. K. A. Namkung, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., June 8, 1996.
90. I interviewed Hwang at his safe house under the protection of the National Intelligence Service in Seoul on May 1, 1998, and May 3, 1999.
91. Wada Haruki, Kita Chosen: Yugekitai Kokka No Genza (North Korea: The guerrilla unit state) (Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten, 1998), p. 230.
92. "Our Party's Policy of Giving Priority to the Army Is Invincible," joint article published by Rodong Shinmun and Kulloja, organs of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea, in Rodong Shinmun (press release no. 34, DPRK Permanent Mission to the United Nations, June 17, 1999).
93. Hwang Chang Yop's transcript of Kim's speech on December 7, 1996, was published in Chosun Ilbo, October 10, 1997.
94. Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 14, 2000, p. 5.
95. Carter Eckert, "Korean Reunification in Historical Perspective" (paper prepared for a conference on Korean reunification sponsored by Seoul Shinmun [now renamed Pae Han Maeil Shinmun], February 3, 1996), p. 20.
96. Vipin Chandra, Imperialism, Resistance, and Reform in Late Nineteenth Century Korea (Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1995), pp. 43-72.
97. Jane Perlez, "Visit Revises Image of North Korean," New York Times, October 26, 2000, p. A12.
98. Hwang, interview.
99. Li, interview by Suarez.
100. Washington Post, September 26, 1993, p. 16; William Perry, interview on The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, Public Broadcasting System, September 17, 1999.
101. See Selig S. Harrison, The Widening Gulf: Asian Nationalism and American Policy (New York: Free Press, 1978), pp. 210-244.
102. Kim Dae Jung, "The Once and Future Korea," Foreign Policy 86 (spring 1992): 45.
103. Cited in Harrison, The Widening Gulf, p. 20.
104. Erik H. Erikson, Identity: Youth and Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 1968), pp. 21-22.
105. Bernard B. Fall, "Sociological and Psychological Aspects of Vietnam's Partition," Journal of International Affairs (July 1964): 179-180.
106. Cited in Roy Richard Grinker, Korea and Its Futures: Unification and the Unfinished War (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), p. 85.
107. "Socialist Constitution of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," Korea Today, Pyongyang, July 1973, p. 24.
108. Edward J. Baker, "A Glimpse of North Korea," Yenching Institute, Harvard University, November 10, 1988, p. 3, an English version of an article published in Korean in Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul, October 23, 1988.
109. Han made this statement at a symposium in his honor at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., June 5, 1991.
110. "Ten-Point Program of Great National Unity of the Whole Nation for Reunification of the Country," presented at the Fifth Session of the Ninth Supreme People's Assembly, Pyongyang, April 7, 1993 (press release no. 13, DPRK Permanent Mission to the United Nations, April 8, 1993, p. 2).
111. "Observations on Ways of Korea's Reunification Corresponding with the Current International Developments and the Trends of the Times," an undated analysis provided to the author by Kim Byong Hong, policy planning director, Foreign Ministry, on a visit to Pyongyang, September 27, 1995, p. 3.
112. Kim Byong Hong, interview by the author, Pyongyang, May 5, 1998.
113. See also Rodong Shinmun, Pyongyang, February 10 and 23, 1998.
114. U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Report on the Far East, 86th Cong., 2d sess., 1960, p. 7.
115. See the interview with coup leaders in Dong-a-Ilbo, Seoul, May 26, 1961, p. 4.
116. See also Chosun Ilbo, April 26, 1962, p. 1, for a summary of The History of the Korean Revolutionary Trials, a detailed account of the circumstances and attitudes leading to the coup.
117. Selig S. Harrison, "Two-Germany Talks Spur Similar Ideas in Korea," Washington Post, May 12, 1970, p. 4.
118. "Decade of Confidence and Achievement," the president's annual New Year's press conference for 1971 (Ministry of Culture and Information, Republic of Korea), p. 13.
119. "Inaugural Speech by President Park Chung Hee," July 1, 1971, pp. 4-5.
120. Address by President Roh Tae Woo at the opening session of the 147th National Assembly, Seoul, September 11, 1989, reprinted in Dialogue with North Korea (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1990), appendix E (61-63). See also "Korean National Community Unification Formula: An Outline," Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Seoul, September 11, 1989.
121. Kim Dae Jung, "The Once and Future Korea," Foreign Policy 85 (spring 1992): 47.
122. Han Wan Sang, "The Kim Young Sam Government's Unification Policy" (keynote address at the Ninth U.S. Forum on the Problems of the Korean Peninsula, Arlington, Virg. July 16, 1993), p. 6. Han Wan Sang was then the deputy prime minister and minister of national unification of South Korea.
123. Kim Chang Ki, "Kim Young Sam Rejects Unconditional Unification," Chosun Ilbo, July 7, 1993, p. 3.
124. American Embassy cable to the secretary of state, Ref. 3724, R0708 10Z, August 1998. See text reproduced in Bill Gertz, Betrayal (Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, 1999), p. 262.
125. Aesop's Fables (Complete and Unabridged) (New York: Lancer Books, 1968), pp. 130-131.
126. The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, Public Broadcasting System, June 9, 1998.
127. Kim Dae Jung, interview by Tetsuya Chikushi, Tokyo Broadcasting System Television Network, 1354 GMT, February 2, 2000. For an English translation, see FBIS JPP 20000210000029, February 10, 2000.
128. See also Lee Chang Sup, "President Kim Describes Kim Jong Il as a Pragmatist," Korea Herald, February 12, 2000, p. 1, reporting an interview in Der Spiegel, the Germany weekly, in which Kim Dae Jung said that Kim Jong Il is "a pragmatist and appears to be in full control of North Korean affairs.".
129. Conversation with Hajime Izumi, Tokyo, June 10, 2001. Izumi, a professor at Shizuoka University, is an adviser to the Japanese Foreign Ministry and attributed this information to informed Japanese government sources.
130. Kim Dae Jung, interview by the author, Seoul, June 7, 2001.
131. Hwang Won Tak, who participated in the summit as President Kim Dae Jung's national security adviser, used this term in briefing Korea specialists in Washington on June 17, 2000. Kim Dae Jung used it in a dinner meeting with Korea specialists at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel, New York, on September 7, 2000. For the text of the June 14 joint statement by Kim Jong Il and Kim Dae Jung, referring to "common factors," see Associated Press dispatch in the New York Times, June 15, 2000, p. 15.
132. Dinner meeting with Korea specialists, New York, September 7, 2000.
133. "Seoul Says Reunification of Koreas to Take Time," Reuters dispatch published in the Korea Herald, October 1, 2000, p. 3.
134. Reuters, March 7, 2001.
135. David Reardon, senior representative for exploration, British Petroleum, and Kim Chong Ku, commercial counselor, interviews by the author, North Korean Embassy, Moscow, October 17, 2001.
136. Unification Ministry press release, March 10, 2000.
137. "Samsung to Develop Computer Software in North," Korea Herald, April 3, 2000, p. 4.
138. Ko Yun Hee, "North Korean Taedong River Complex Increasing Production," Joongang Ilbo, April 17, 2000, p. 3; "Hanvit Bank Moves North," Korea Times, July 10, 2000, p. 10;
139. and Kim Kwang Ki, "First Delivery of South-North Korea Cigarette Arrives in Inchon," Joongang Ilbo, March 23, 2000, p. 1.
140. Kim Ji Ho, "First Inter-Korean Motor Rally in Mount Kumgang," Korea Herald, April 18, 2000, p. 4.
141. Seo Jang Soo, "Korea-Made Blue Jeans to Be Shipped to North," Joongang Ilbo, December 2, 1999, p. 2.
142. "Republic of Korea: Time to Reform the National Security Law," Amnesty International, International Secretariat, London, February 1999 (AI Index, ASA, March 25, 1999).
143. "Democracy in the Republic of Korea," Korea Information Service, Seoul, June 1999, p. 7.
144. Bae Jin Young, "The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification and Its Impact on South Korea's Macroeconomic Stability" (paper prepared for the U.S.-Korea Academic Symposium, "Economic and Regional Cooperation in Northeast Asia," Seoul, November 1997), p. 199.
145. Yun Kun Young, "Korean Unification and Property Ownership in North Korea" (paper prepared for a conference titled "Two Koreas: Towards One Economy," sponsored by the Korea-America Economic Association and the Korea Society, Washington, D.C., October 4-5, 1999), pp. 14, 16, 18.
146. Marcus Noland, "Some Unpleasant Arithmetic Concerning Unification" (APEC working paper 96-13, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 1996).
147. See also Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li Gang Liu, "The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification" (paper delivered at the Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 1998).
148. Yong Sun Lee, "The Costs and Financing of Korean Unification" (paper prepared for a conference titled "Two Koreas: Towards One Economy," sponsored by the Korea-America Economic Association and the Korea Society, Washington, D.C., October 4-5, 1999), pp. 11-12.
149. Lawrence H. Summers, "The Unified German Economy and Its Implications for a Unified Korean Economy," Newsletter of the Research Institute of National Unification, Seoul, October 1992, p. 9. This is the transcript of a lecture delivered on August 26, 1992, at the institute.
150. Gifford Combs, "Some Economic Factors in German Reunification," Security Dialogue 24, no. 4 (December 1993): 310-320.
151. Helmut Schmidt, "Lessons of the German Reunification for Korea," Security Dialogue 24, no. 4 (December 1993): 402.
152. Kim Dae Jung, interview by Cable News Network, January 2, 2000, reported by Agence France Press, January 3, 2000.
153. Norman Levin, The Shape of Korea's Future (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), p. 10. This is the report of a public opinion poll conducted jointly by the RAND Center for Asia-Pacific Policy and Joongang Ilbo.
154. Roy Richard Grinker, Korea and Its Futures: Unification and the Unfinished War (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1998), pp. 10, 23. See also preface, pp. 11-48, 73-98.
155. Cited by U.S. Ambassador Donald Gregg in an address before the Korean Council on Foreign Relations, Seoul, November 21, 1990.
156. Cho Soon Sung, Korea in World Politics, 1940-50: An Evaluation of American Responsibility (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967).
157. Cho Soon Sung, "Hanguk ui yangdan kwa miguk ui chaegim" (The division of Korea and America's responsibility), Sasanggye (July 1960): 57.
158. Gregory Henderson, Korea: The Politics of the Vortex (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1968), pp. 126-129. For another eyewitness account, see Harold R. Isaacs, No Peace for Asia (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1967), pp. 93-94.
159. Yi Yong Gun, "8/15 Kaiho Zengo no Souru" (Seoul before and after the August 15 liberation), Toitsu Chosen Shimbun, Tokyo, August 15 and 31, 1970.
160. Bruce Cumings, The Origins of the Korean War, vol. 1 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981), pp. 71-91.
161. Cited in Richard E. Lauterbach, Danger from the East (New York: Harper, 1947), p. 201.
162. A former associate of Yo Un Hyong stated that five members of the original seven-man executive committee of the Republic of Korea named on August 17, 1945, were conservatives or non-Communists of other hues: Chairman Yo, Vice Chairman An Chae Hong, General Affairs Chairman Ch'oe Kun U, Finance Chairman Yi Kyu Gap, and Security Director Kwon T'ae Sok. Two of these, Ch'oe and Yi, a former Buddhist priest, were outspokenly anti-Communist. The two other members, Organization Director Chong Paek and Public Relations Director Cho Tong, were described as "moderate Communists." See Yi, "8/15 Kaiho Zengo no Souru," August 15, 1970.
163. Henderson, Korea: The Politics of the Vortex, pp. 126-129. See also pp. 115-119.
164. "South Korea's 'Other Side,'" Far Eastern Economic Review, June 18, 1965, pp. 593-595.
165. Chosun Ilbo, November 6, 1963, p. 4.
166. Hahm Pyong Choon, "Korea's 'Mendicant Mentality'?" Foreign Affairs 43 (October 1964): 169.
167. Cha Chi Chol, "Implementation of the 'Brown Memo,'" Dong A Ilbo, September 20, 1966, p. 2.
168. Lauterbach, Danger from the East, p. 201.
169. Henderson, Korea: The Politics of the Vortex, pp. 336-337, 342.
170. See also Ko Chong Hun, Kun (Army) (Seoul: Tongbang Sowon, 1967).
171. "U.S. May Have Forced Chun to Cancel Summit," Korea Herald, August 20, 1998, p. 2, citing a report in the September issue of Minju Choson quoting Chun as saying, "I suppose there was pressure from the United States." This explanation was also confirmed by Jae Nang Sohn, then an assistant director of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency, in an interview with the author, Seoul, May 10, 2000.
172. Airport arrival statement by Dr. Billy Graham, March 31, 1992, p. 2.
173. "Nobody Can Slander the DPRK's Missile Policy," Korean Central News Agency, June 16, 1998, monitored by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (ID FTS 1998061600035).
174. The verbatim text of the minutes was given to the author by Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Lim Dong Won, then national security adviser to President Kim Dae Jung, Seoul, May 4, 1998.
175. "Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation Secretary General Lim Dong Won Discusses the Four-Party Meeting and Comprehensive Peace Agreement," Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation on Record, no. 3 (July 1996): 6-9, reporting on the Unification Forum of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, June 14, 1996.
176. William Perry, interview by the author, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, May 16, 2000.
177. Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997), p. 306.
178. Richard Halloran, "South Korea, U.S. Draft Deadly Response Plan," Washington Times, November 19, 1998, pp. 1, 13; Halloran, ". . . But Carry a Big Stick," Far Eastern Economic Review, December 3, 1998, pp. 26-28; Halloran, essay published on "Global Beat" website, November 14, 1998.
179. "A Combined PSI Warfare Command," Chosun Ilbo, January 15, 1999, p. 10.
180. See also Korea Herald, January 14, 1999, p. 1; and U.S. Forces, Korea, news release no. 99-01-06, January 13, 1999.
181. For example, see "Right to Preemptive Strike Does Not Rest Entirely with Enemies," Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang, December 6, 1998; and "The United States Must Clearly Know Its Opponent," Rodong Shinmun, Pyongyang, December 4, 1998.
182. Lt. Col. (Ret.) John H. Cushman, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., June 1, 1999.
183. "South Korea Rejects the Idea of Preemptive Strikes on North Korea," Dow-Jones Newswires, March 5, 1999.
184. "Defense Minister Urges Cooperation between ROK, Japan Armed Forces," Korea Herald, March 6, 1999, p. 2.
185. James R. Asker, "Washington Outlook," Aviation Week and Space Technology, March 8, 1999, p. 25.
186. William Perry, interview by the author, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, May 16, 2000.
187. "'Sunshine' or Moonshine?" Wall Street Journal, March 2, 1999, p. A18.
188. Choe Won Ki, "Report on the Assessment of the Fighting Capability of the North Korean Military Prepared by the Intelligence Staff of the Eighth Army," Wolgang Chungang, October 1, 2000, pp. 140-147, translated by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, October 1, 2000 (ID KPP20000921000058).
189. U.S. Department of Defense, 2000 Report to Congress: Military Situation on the Korean Peninsula, September 12, 2000, p. 3; Stephen Fidler, "Threat from North Korea 'Has Grown,'" Financial Times, March 28, 2001, p. 10.
190. Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper, 1999, pp. 69-84.
191. See also "On the Defense," Newsreview, Seoul, October 3, 1998, p. 10;
192. and "Pulling out the Stops," Newsreview, Seoul, October 16, 1999, p. 8.
193. Defense White Paper, 1999. Assistance with respect to U.S. and ROK airpower was provided by Brig. Gen. (Ret.) James F. Grant, a former director of intelligence of U.S. forces in Korea.
194. Lee Sung Yul, "Seoul to Buy Spy Planes to Beef Up Intelligence," Korea Herald, August 8, 1999, p. 1.
195. See also "A.D.D. to Develop Spy Satellite," Chosun Ilbo, November 3, 1998, p. 1.
196. For example, see Edward W. Desmond, "If the Shooting Starts, Who Will Win?" Time, April 4, 1994, pp. 19-21;
197. Lonnie Henley, "A War Scenario: Korea Cataclysm," Washington Post, May 4, 1997, pp. C1-C4;
198. and Col. Trevor N. Dupuy, Future Wars (New York: Warner Books, 1996), pp. 196-205.
199. Michael O'Hanlon, "Stopping a North Korean Invasion: Why Defending South Korea Is Easier Than the Pentagon Thinks," International Security 22, no. 2 (spring 1998): 137-139, 148-53, 159-61.
200. Desmond, "If the Shooting Starts," p. 20.
201. Dupuy, Future Wars, p. 203.
202. Defense White Paper, 1999, p. 83.
203. Kim Tae Woo, "The South Korean Perception of the Nuclear Threat" (paper presented at "The Western Powers and Regional Perspectives on the Nuclear Future" conference sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, December 2, 1999), pp. 8-9.
204. O'Hanlon, "Stopping a North Korean Invasion," pp. 139, 161-166.
205. Brian Cloughley, "The Korean Flashpoint Waits to Be Ignited," Jane's International Defense Review (September 1996): 27.
206. This is based on an interview with General Grant on April 11, 2000, Washington, D.C., and a text of talking points for speeches to defense industry groups provided to the author by General Grant, executive vice president of Zel Technologies.
207. Brig. Gen. (Ret.) John C. Bahnsen, "The Kaleidoscopic U.S. Army," Armed Forces Journal (November 1985): 81-82.
208. Gen. (Ret.) Robert W. Sennewald, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., April 27, 2000.
209. Ministry of National Defense, Yisip Il Se Gi Eui Gugga Ambowa Gukbangbi (National defense in the twenty-first century and the defense budget), March 3, 2000, pp. 43-46. Translated for the author by Lee Gong Soon.
210. See also Kang Seok Jae, "Government Calls for Substitute Force in Event of U.S. Military Pullout," Korea Herald, March 6, 2000, p. 1.
211. Don Kirk, "South Korea: A Record Defense Budget," New York Times, June 20, 2001, p. 10.
212. Nicholas Eberstadt and Judith Bannister, The Population of North Korea (Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1992), p. 30.
213. Robert G. Liotta, "Offset: A Factor in Korean Defense Industry Development" (paper prepared for a conference sponsored by the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies, November 30, 1987), p. 1.
214. Hwang Dong Joon, "South Korea's Defense Industry: An Asset for the U.S.," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder no. 38, December 10, 1985.
215. See also Yong Sook Lee and Ann Markusen, "The South Korean Defense Industry in the Post Cold War Era" (working paper no. 150, Project on Regional and Industrial Economics, Hubert Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, September 1999), p. 13.
216. See also Federation of American Scientists, Arms Sales Monitor, Washington, D.C., October 1999.
217. Lee and Markusen, "The South Korean Defense Industry," p. 14.
218. Guo Hongjun, "ROK Working for Developing and Producing Weapons for Itself," People's Liberation Army Daily, November 28, 1999, p. 5.
219. Chul Hwan Kim, "Defense Industrial Cooperation and Technology Transfer between Korea and the U.S.," June 1999. Dr. Kim is a professor in the Korea National Defense College, Seoul.
220. International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance: 1999-2000 (London: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 176. For 1993 data, see Bae Jin Yong, "The Costs of National Defense" (paper prepared for the U.S.-Korea Academic Symposium, "Economic and Regional Cooperation in Northeast Asia," Seoul, November 10-12, 1997), pp. 5-6.
221. Nicholas Eberstadt and Judith Bannister, "North Korea: A Statistical Glimpse into a Closed Society," Journal of Korean Reunification 2 (March 1993): 54.
222. Selig S. Harrison, "Kim Seeks Summit, Korean Troop Cuts," Washington Post, June 26, 1972, p. 1.
223. Choguk t'ongil e kwanhan widaehan suryong Kim Il-song tongji ui munhon (Documents of the Great Leader Comrade Kim Il Sung on the unification of the fatherland) (Pyongyang: Samhaksa, 1975), p. 144.
224. Kim Il Sung attributed this statement to Lee Hu Rak in a conversation with Japanese Diet member Tokuma Utsonomiya. Cited in "Details of the Meetings between Premier Kim Il Sung and Representative Tokuma Utsonomiya: Second Meeting, North Korea and the United States," August 9, 1974, p. 6.
225. See also Utsonomiya's "The Relaxation of Tensions and Korean Unification" (paper presented at the Conference of Japanese and U.S. Parliamentarians on Korean Problems, Washington, D.C., September 19, 1977), p. 23.
226. For the texts of the 1987 and 1988 proposals, see Selig S. Harrison, Dialogue with North Korea (report of a seminar on tension reduction in Korea) (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1989), appendix B (pp. 47-50). See also "On Easing the Tension on the Korean Peninsula and Creating a Peaceful Climate for National Reunification: Disarmament Proposal for the Korean Peninsula," press release no. 30, DPRK Permanent Observer Mission to the United Nations, June 2, 1990; and "Keynote Speech by Premier Yon Hyong Muk in Seoul," press release no. 41, September 6, 1990.
227. Harrison, Dialogue with North Korea, p. 8.
228. "U.S. Relations with North Korea," a symposium by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., June 5, 1991.
229. Selig S. Harrison, "Get a Food for Peace Deal with North Korea," International Herald Tribune, May 14, 1997, p. 10.
230. Yunjoo Jung, "Minister Han Offers Pullback," Hankyoreh Shinmun, May 15, 1997, p. 1.
231. "Gist of the Opening Statement by Kang Young Hoon, Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea, at the First South-North High Level Meeting on 5 September 1990," Embassy of the Republic of Korea, Washington, D.C., September 8, 1990.
232. Brig. Gen. Jin Kim Ryoo, "Opening Remarks," subcommittee on tension reduction, sixth plenary session, the four-party talks, Geneva, August 6, 1999, p. 4.
233. Lim Dong Won, "Conditions for Arms Control between South and North Korea," Chosun Ilbo, October 10, 1989, esp. pp. 4-5.
234. Lim Dong Won, "Next Steps in Arms Control," in Restarting the Peace Process in the Korean Peninsula," ed. Kongdan Oh and Craig. S. Coleman, report on a conference sponsored by the Korea Times, Los Angeles, June 8, 1994, pp. 135-136, published by the Korea Times, Los Angeles, September 1994.
235. Yong Sup Han, Designing and Evaluating Conventional Arms Control Measures: The Case of the Korean Peninsula (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1993), publication no. N-3411, pp. 120-124. This was previously published as a RAND Graduate School Dissertation no. N-34111-RGSD, July 1991.
236. Lee Chang, "Setting National Priorities: Welfare vs. Defense," Korean Social Science Journal 16 (spring 1990): 27-24
237. Yong, Designing and Evaluating Conventional Arms Control Measures, p. 119.
238. Pedro Almeida and Michael O'Hanlon, "Impasse in Korea: A Conventional Arms Accord Solution?" Survival 41, no. 1 (spring 1999): 58-72, esp. p. 60.
239. "Summary of Nuclear Portion of Conversation between Former President Carter and Then President Kim Il Sung, Pyongyang, North Korea, June 16, 1994: Prepared by Marion Creekmore and Reviewed by President Carter," September 20, 2000, p. 3.
240. "The Future of Inter-Korean Relations" (conference report of the KIDACSIS Study Group on ROK-US Policy toward North Korea, Rapporteur Michael J. Mazarr, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., January 1991), pp. 8-9.
241. "Challenges of Building a Korean Peace Process" (special report of a United States Institute of Peace working group, Washington, D.C., June 1998), pp. 2, 13-14.
242. William Perry, interview by the author, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, May 16, 2000.
243. Gen. Ri Chan Bok, interview by the author, Pyongyang, May 5, 1998.
244. "Nobody Can Slander the DPRK's Missile Policy," Korean Central News Agency, June 16, 1998, monitored by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service.
245. Col. Jack Pritchard, deputy director for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the National Security Council, speaking at a seminar sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., February 19, 1998, said that "our objective is to steer the four-party talks at Geneva back into the model of the North-South Basic Agreement of 1991 so that the armistice can be replaced by an agreement between North and South.".
246. Chang Il Ohn, "The 1953 Armistice Negotiations," in Korea and the Cold War, ed. K. C. Baum and J. I. Matray (Claremont, Calif.: Regina Books, 1993), p. 218.
247. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1952-54, vol. 15: Korea (Washington, D.C.: Department of State, 1984), pp. 1368-1369.
248. Letter from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Gen. John E. Hull, October 10, 1953, JCS Records, RG 218, CCS 383.2, Korea, sec. 137, NA. See also Ohn, "The 1953 Armistice Negotiations," pp. 224-225.
249. Max Hastings, The Korean War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987), p. 325.
250. Bruce Cumings and Jon Halliday, Korea: The Unknown War (New York: Viking/Penguin, 1988), p. 210.
251. Transcript of an interview with Paik Too Chin, Seoul, September 28, 1965, John Foster Dulles Oral History Project, Princeton University Library, pp. 11, 15.
252. See also transcript of an interview with Son Won Il, Seoul, September 29, 1965, pp. 14-15, and an interview with Chung Il Kwon, Seoul, October 12, 1965, p. 3, both in Dulles Oral History Project.
253. Bruce Cumings, Korea's Place in the Sun (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), p. 479.
254. John Barry Kotch, The United Nations Command in Historical Perspective: Anatomy and Legacy of a U.N. Collective Security Enforcement Action (Seoul: Hanyang University Press, 1990).
255. Trygvie Lie, In the Cause of Peace (New York: Macmillan, 1954), p. 334.
256. Patrick M. Norton, "Ending the Korean Armistice Agreement: The Legal Issues," Nautilus Institute Policy Forum Online, March 3, 1997, no. 97-103 (http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/2a-armisticelegal-norton.html). Mr. Norton is special counsel in the law firm O'Melveny and Myers, based in Shanghai.
257. National Security Council Decision Memorandum 251, National Security Council, Washington, D.C., cited by Kotch, The United Nations Command in Historical Perspective, appendix 8, p. 323.
258. "Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation Secretary General Lim Dong Won Discusses 'The Four Party Meeting and a Comprehensive Peace Agreement,'" Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation on Record no. 3 (July 1996), 6-7. This is the text of a presentation at the Unification Forum of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, Seoul, June 14, 1996.
259. Richard Stilwell, "Challenge and Response in the Northeast Asia of the 1980's: The Military Balance," in Strategy and Security in Northeast Asia, ed. R. Foster (New York: Crane Russak, 1979), p. 99.
260. "Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation Secretary General Lim Dong Won Discusses 'The Four Party Meeting and a Comprehensive Peace Agreement,'" p. 8.
261. Lt. Gen. John H. Cushman, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., May 4, 1997.
262. "Memorandum for Ambassador Porter," February 19, 1971, p. 3. Underhill provided a copy of this memorandum to the author on January 10, 1991, following his retirement from the Foreign Service after service as ambassador to Malaysia.
263. Jimmy Carter, interview by the author, Atlanta, June 14, 2000.
264. Robert Gallucci, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., June 16, 2000.
265. Letter to the author from Col. Carl J. Kropf, public affairs officer, headquarters, U.S. forces, Korea, May 11, 1999.
266. Li Hyong Chol, interview by the author, New York, October 29, 1996.
267. William J. Perry, Review of United States Policy toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, U.S. Department of State, October 12, 1999, p. 8.
268. Stephen Bosworth, interview by the author, Seoul, May 4, 1999.
269. "President Kim Reaffirms Kim Jong Il's Approval of U.S. Troops Here," Korea Times, August 17, 2000. See also Hankook Ilbo, Seoul, August 17, 2000, p. 2.
270. John Burton, "Seoul Marks War Anniversary," Financial Times, June 26, 2000, p. 4.
271. Jane Perlez, "Albright Says U.S. Pullout Isn't Planned in South Korea," New York Times, June 24, 2000, p. 6.
272. "Early Bird News Service," Department of Defense, August 10, 2000.
273. Beijing Review, July 24, 2000, reported by Agence France Press, July 26, 2000.
274. Kenneth Quinones, "The Korean Peninsula: Preserve the Past or Move toward Reconciliation?" (paper prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on Managing Change in the Korean Peninsula, Washington, D.C., October 1997-May 1998).
275. William J. Porter, interview by the author, Seoul, April 16, 1971.
276. "Memorandum for Ambassador Porter," February 19, 1971, p. 2. Underhill provided a copy of this memorandum to the author on January 10, 1991, following his retirement from the Foreign Service after service as ambassador to Malaysia.
277. Joel Chandler Harris, The Complete Tales of Uncle Remus (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1983), pp. 6-8.
278. Francis Underhill, interview by the author, Seoul, May 10, 1971.
279. James Laney, interview by the author, Atlanta, June 14, 2000.
280. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Security Agreements and Commitments Abroad: The Republic of Korea, Hearings before the Subcommittee on U.S. Security Agreements and Commitments Abroad, 91st Cong., 2d sess., 1970, pt. 6, pp. 1561-1562, 1592-1594.
281. Korea and the Philippines: November, 1972, staff report prepared for the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, (Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1973), p. 47.
282. House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Defense Appropriations, Department of Defense Appropriation Bill, 1975, 93d Cong. 2d sess., 1974, H. Rept. 93-1255, pp. 33-34, 39-49.
283. Selig S. Harrison, "One Korea?" Foreign Policy no. 17 (winter 1974-75): 35-62.
284. Jimmy Carter, interview by the author, Atlanta, June 14, 2000. See also Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997), p. 103.
285. "It's Time to Loosen the Grip on Korea," Business Week, September 5, 1988, p. 114.
286. Senator Carl Levin, Report on a Trip to Korea, Japan and the U.S. Pacific Command, presented to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, June 2, 1989, p. 5.
287. Mark Clifford and Shim Jae Hoon, "Welcome Wears Thin," Far Eastern Economic Review 145, no. 28 (July 13, 1989): 28.
288. Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim: Looking toward the Twenty-First Century, April 19, 1990, p. 4. See also Charles R. Larson, "An American Umbrella for Asian Storms," Asian Wall Street Journal, April 16, 1993, p. 1.
289. Statement made by President Bill Clinton at a news Conference with President Kim Young Sam of South Korea, Seoul, July 27, 1995.
290. Charles William Maynes, "The Limitations of Force" (paper prepared for the Aspen Strategy Group Conference, Aspen, Colorado, August 1994), pp. 9-10.
291. David E. Brown, "The United States and South Korea" (paper prepared for "South Korea, North Korea and the United States," conference sponsored by Southern Methodist University, Dallas, March 21, 1997), p. 3.
292. James Lilley, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., June 20, 2000. The recreational and other perquisites of life at the ten major U.S. military installations in South Korea are detailed in U.S. Forces Travel Guide to Overseas U.S. Military Installations (Falls Church, Va.: Military Living Publications, 1999), pp. 106-118.
293. Dana Priest, "A Four-Star Foreign Policy?" first in a series of three articles titled "The Proconsuls," Washington Post, September 28, 2000, p. 1.
294. Doug Bandow, Tripwire (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1996), p. 71.
295. Japan Times, October 27, 1989, p. 1.
296. "Target Date 2010," Korea Herald, November 10, 1999, p. 1.
297. Bandow, Tripwire, p. 74.
298. Ted Galen Carpenter, "Ending South Korea's Unhealthy Security Dependence," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis (winter 1995): 181.
299. James Laney, interview by the author, Seoul, May 28, 1994.
300. Lee Sang Hoon, Interview by the author, Seoul, October 10, 1991.
301. Gen. Thomas A. Schwartz, commander, U.S. forces, Korea, testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 6, 2000.
302. "Cutting Unnecessary Military Spending: Going Further and Faster," Defense Monitor 21, no. 3 (1993): 2.
303. See also Stephen Daggett and Kathleen Hicks, "Defense Budget: Alternative Measures of Costs of Military Commitments Abroad," supplement to the Defense Monitor, June 16, 1995, p. 1.
304. Earl C. Ravenal, Designing Defense for a New World Order (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1992), p. 51.
305. Cited in Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997), p. 311.
306. William W. Kaufmann and John D. Steinbruner, Decisions for Defense: Prospects for a New Order (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1991), p. 46.
307. Steve Glain, "Seoul's Weapons Buildup Suffers Loss of Credibility," Asian Wall Street Journal Weekly, January 3, 1994, p. 1;
308. and Glain, "U.S. Officials Question South Korean Readiness to Fight the North: Defense Ministry Fears Japan More than Pyongyang as Long-Term Threat," Wall Street Journal, January 17, 1995, p. 1.
309. U.S. Congress, Moving United States Forces: Options for Strategic Mobility (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Budget Office, 1997), pp. xviii, 25-26, 29-30.
310. Mark Thompson, "What Will Be the Weapons of the Future?" Time, May 22, 2000, p. 102.
311. Selig S. Harrison, The Widening Gulf: Asian Nationalism and American Policy (New York: Free Press, 1978), pp. 377-378.
312. Congress, Moving United States Forces, p. 33.
313. William J. Taylor and Michael J. Mazarr, "R.O.K.-U.S. Defense Cooperation in the Context of Arms Control" (paper presented at "Comprehensive Security in Northeast Asia," conference sponsored by the Center for International Studies and the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis, Seoul, November 5-6, 1990), p. 21.
314. For an extended discussion of the use of Korea as a rationale for U.S. military budgeting, see Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), p. 233.
315. Jim Wolfe, "Powell Sees Opportunity for U.S. to Reduce Military Strength," Defense News, April 8, 1991, p. 1.
316. Nicholas Kristof, "Police and Demonstrators Battle in Seoul." New York Times, July 9, 1987, p. 3.
317. Hyun Hong Choo, "Korean Perceptions of America," Shin Dong A Monthly, (February 1995): 32.
318. Seong Ok Chol, "Prostitution on U.S. Military Bases," Korea Report, Washington (January-February, 1989), pp. 10-11.
319. John Burton, "Koreans Not So Comfortable on America's Sofa," Financial Times, July 15, 2000, p. 4.
320. Sang Hun Choe, "Seoul Gets More Power in Crimes Involving G.I.'s," Washington Post, December 29, 2000, p. 10.
321. Norman D. Levin, The Shape of Korea's Future (Santa Monica, Calif.: Center for Asia-Pacific Policy, RAND Corporation, 1999), pp. 15, 33.
322. For the 1975 findings, see Michael Getler, "Troops in Korea Stir Concern," Washington Post, May 24, 1975, pp. A13-A14. For 1999, see Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy, ed. John Rielly (Chicago: Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1999), fig. 6-4, p. 38. See also figs. 2-5, p. 13, 4-6, p. 28.
323. Conrad C. Crane, "To Avert Impending Disaster: American Military Plans to Use Atomic Weapons during the Korean War," Journal of Strategic Studies 23, no. 2 (June 2000): 79-80. See also Bruce Cumings and Jan Halliday, Korea: The Unknown War (London: Viking/Penguin, 1988), p. 165.
324. Bruce Cumings, Parallax Visions: Making Sense of American-East Asian Relations at the End of the Century (Durham: Duke University Press, 1999), p. 131.
325. Peter Hayes, "American Nuclear Dilemmas in Korea" (paper delivered at a conference sponsored by the U.S. Korea Security Studies Council, December 3, 1987), pp. 14, 43. See also Hayes, Pacific Powderkeg: American Nuclear Dilemmas in Korea (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1990), pp. 123-52.
326. John W. Lewis, then director of the Stanford University Arms Control and Disarmament Program, speaking at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace seminar on October 10, 1993, described his meetings with Soviet nuclear scientists who had received these overtures from North Korea.
327. Edward Seidensticker, "Japan after Vietnam," Commentary (September 1975): 56.
328. Concept for Nuclear Operations in a Nuclear Environment, Defense Nuclear Agency Technical Report DNA-TR-81-133, Washington, D.C., June 1982, p. 19, cited in Hayes, Pacific Powderkeg, p. 91.
329. Michael Getler, "Weinberger, South Korean President Observe Exercises," Washington Post, April 18, 1982, p. 20.
330. David E. Sanger, "North Korea Bars Inspectors," New York Times, March 14, 1993, p. E18.
331. Peter Hayes, "Should the United States Supply Light Water Reactors to Pyongyang?" (paper prepared for a conference on North Korea sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 16, 1993), pp. 3-6.
332. Alexander Zhebin, "A Political History of Soviet-North Korean Cooperation,"in The North Korean Nuclear Program, ed. James Clay Moltz and Alexander Mansourov (New York: Routledge, 1999), p. 35.
333. Adm. William J. Crowe, "North Korea: U.S. Policy Issues" (paper prepared for a conference on Korea sponsored by the Summit Council on World Peace, Washington, D.C., September 11, 1993), p. 2.
334. Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), p. 60.
335. Lim Dong Won, interview by the author, Seoul, April 29, 1998. Stars and Stripes, May 31, 1992, reported General Riscassi's statement, prompting a comment in Dong-A-Ilbo, June 2, 1992, p. 1, that "since General Riscassi's statement may provoke North Korea to assume a hardline position of its own, his words may have the effect of blocking further progress in the inter-Korea relationship.".
336. Cited in Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997), p. 273.
337. Sigal, Disarming Strangers.
338. For example, see "Breaking the Nuclear Impasse: Paths to Cooperative Security in Korea" (paper prepared for a conference on Northeast Asian Security cosponsored by the Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, Washington, D.C., November 1-2, 1993); "The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: From Stalemate to Breakthrough," Arms Control Today (November 1994): 22-25; "Three Myths May Foil Progress," New York Times, June 24, 1994, p. A27; "Package Incentives for Forswearing Nuclear Arms," Washington Post, January 30, 1994, p. A29; and "North Korea and Nuclear Weapons: Next Steps in American Policy," testimony presented before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 26, 1993.
339. Sigal, Disarming Strangers, p. 109.
340. "North Korea's Kim Calls Nuclear Talk 'Fictitious,'" Washington Times, April 19, 1994, p. A17.
341. David Albright, "How Much Plutonium Did North Korea Produce?" in Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International Security, 2000), pp. 114-119.
342. Sigal, Disarming Strangers, pp. 93-94. Chapter 18 The 1994 Compromise: Can It Survive?
343. Jimmy Carter, interview by the author, Carter Center, Atlanta, June 14, 2000.
344. Robert Gallucci, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., June 15, 2000.
345. William Perry, interview by the author, Palo Alto, California, May 16, 2000.
346. Marion Creekmore, interview by the author, Carter Center, Atlanta, May 16, 2000.
347. "Summary of Nuclear Portion of Conversation between Former President Carter and Then President Kim Il Sung, Pyongyang, North Korea, June 16, 1994: Prepared by Marion Creekmore and reviewed by President Carter," September 20, 2000, p. 2.
348. Gallucci, interview.
349. Carter, interview.
350. Leon V. Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), p. 32.
351. "Nobody Can Slander the DPRK's Missile Policy," Korean Central News Agency, June 16, 1998, monitored by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service.
352. Mugunghwa Kk'Och'i P'iossumnida (The Rose of Sharon has blossomed), (Seoul: Haenaem Publishing Company, 1994), sold 1.3 million sets of the complete trilogy and 4.1 million copies of separate volumes. It has not been translated into English.
353. Physics Today (September 1977): 76. Haek Mulli Hakja Lee Hwi So (Nuclear physicist Lee Hwi So) (Seoul: Puri), a biography by Kong Suk Ha, a professor at Doksong Women's College, appeared in 1989. The same author's novel, Lee Hwi So Sosol (Lee Hwi So the novel), also published by Puri, appeared in 1993. Neither work contained factual evidence linking Lee to Park's program. However, Kong stated that he had interviewed Park's family and Lee's family in preparing his novel. The novel depicts Lee as helping the nuclear program, and the biography contains a photo of a National Service Medal posthumously awarded to Lee by Park praising his "contributions to Korean scientific achievement."
354. Press Conference, Foreign Ministry, Tokyo, February 17, 1966.
355. "Nuclear Armament Possible But Unrealistic: Secret Reports," Asahi, November 13, 1994, p. 1.
356. "Nuclearization Possible Technically," Mainichi, July 12, 1968, p. 4.
357. "The Capability to Develop Nuclear Weapons Should Be Kept: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secret Document in 1969," Mainichi, August 1, 1994, p. 1.
358. "Agreed Minute to Joint Communiqúe of United States President Nixon and Japanese Prime Minister Sato Issued on November 21, 1969" (top secret), Washington, D.C., two pages. See Kei Wakaizumi, Tasaku Nakarishi o Shinzemu to Hossu (I want to believe there was no other alternative) (Tokyo: Bungeishunju Limited, 1994).
359. This is based on a tape recording of Sato's comments to business executives at Keidanren headquarters in Tokyo on December 8, 1969, translated for me by Seiji Yamaoka of the Washington Post. See Selig S. Harrison, "Japanese Wary of Nuclear Treaty," Washington Post, December 15, 1969, p. 3.
360. Yasuhiro Nakasone, "The International Environment and the Defense of Japan in the 1970's" (address delivered at the Harvard Club of Japan, June 30, 1970), p. 8.
361. Selig S. Harrison, "Japan To Be 'Medium-Rank' Power," International Herald Tribune, October 21, 1970, p. 1. See also "Gist of White Paper on Defense," Japan Times, October 25, 1970, p. 20.
362. His formal title was acting chairman. The honorific chairmanship is held concurrently by the minister of state for science and technology, a political appointee. Arisawa served under a succession of seven ministers.
363. "Ningen No Chie Nante Asahaka Na Manodesu" (Humanity's wisdom is a shallow thing), Asahi, September 12, 1972, p. 6. Arisawa's revelation was recalled by a columnist on the occasion of his death, "Kyo No Mondai" (Topic of the day), Asahi, March 9, 1988, p. 55.
364. Asahi, October 15, 1980, p. 8.
365. Yasuo Takeyama, "Japan and Its Role in Asia" (address at the 1992 Taipei YPO World Conference, April 27-May 1, 1992), pp. 15-16, 19.
366. "Nichibei Kankei 'Taitoo Na Kankei' to iu Ukareta Hanashi de Wa Nai" (Is 'a normal country' the path toward nuclear armament?), interview with former prime minister Miyazawa, AERA, published weekly by the Asahi Shimbun, March 21, 1994, pp. 18-19.
367. Selig S. Harrison, Japan's Nuclear Future: The Plutonium Debate and East Asian Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 18-21.
368. For example, see J. Carson Mark, "Explosive Properties of Reactor-Grade Plutonium," Science and Global Security 3 (1992): 1-13.
369. Jinzaburo Takagi states in a memorandum dated March 22, 1996, that the Joyo accumulation in the radial blanket was officially reported to have been twenty-two kilograms. He estimates that there are an additional eighteen kilograms in the axial blanket. The blankets are now in storage.
370. Victor Gilinsky, "Fast Breeder Reactors and the Spread of Plutonium," memorandum RM-5148-PR (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1967), pp. 7, 28.
371. The Unlawful Plutonium Alliance: Japan's Supergrade Plutonium and the Role of the United States (Amsterdam: Greenpeace International, 1994), p. 10.
372. Tom Clancy, Debt of Honor (New York: G. P. Putnam's Sons, 1994), esp. pp. 205-218.
373. John Pike, interview by the author, Washington, D.C., January 10, 1996.
374. Gen. Toshiyuki Shikata, "Can Japan Take the Lead in Nuclear Weapons?" (paper prepared for a conference sponsored by the Center for International Strategy, Technology, and Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Hakone, Japan, October 3, 1999), pp. 709.
375. Pike, interview.
376. Harrison, Japan's Nuclear Future, esp. pp. 33-40.
377. Plutonium Watch, Institute for Science and International Security, Washington, D.C., October 2000 issue, p. 6.
378. Gen. Kim Yoon Ho, interview by the author, Seoul, May 2, 1992.
379. Donald Gregg, telephone interview with the author, September 11, 2000.
380. Kapchae Cho, "Nuclear Game on the Korean Peninsula," Wolgang Choson, Seoul, April 1990, pp. 220-255 (translated for the author by Taewoo Kim).
381. Department of State Telegram 048673, Control 859Q, March 4, 1975, 11:40 P.M., secs. 1, 4.
382. Kapchae, "Nuclear Game," p. 14.
383. Mark Hibbs, "Legacy of Secret Nuclear Program Led U.S. to Blunt R.O.K. Cooperation," Nucleonics Week 40, no. 1 (January 7, 1999): 10.
384. Yu Yong Won, "Korea Must Obtain Nuclear Armament Capability," Wolgang Choson, Seoul, October 1991, pp. 222-37 (FBIS-EAS-91-016, October 29, 1991, p. 13).
385. Paul Shin, "U.S. Said to Stop South Korea's Nuke Bomb Plans," Washington Times, March 29, 1994, p. A11.
386. See the letter from Bridget Goodman to British Nuclear Fuels, Greenpeace-United Kingdom, March 15, 1993, provided by Greenpeace.
387. Kim Dae Jung, interview by the author, Seoul, May 1, 1992.
388. "Denuclearization Policy under Fire," Newsreview, Seoul, November 6, 1993, p. 5.
389. Yonhap News Service, October 9, 1993, cited in FBIS-EAS-93-195, October 12, 1993, p. 36.
390. "Denuclearization Policy under Fire."
391. "Korea's Nuclear Dilemmas," Korea and World Affairs (summer 1992): 274.
392. "Korea Must Obtain Nuclear Armament Capability," p. 12.
393. Choi provided a copy of this memorandum to the author in a meeting with a delegation representing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Study Group on Nuclear Weapons and the Security of Korea, Seoul, April 20, 1992.
394. Janne E. Nolan, Trappings of Power: Ballistic Missiles in the Third World (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1991), pp. 49-50.
395. See also Peter Hayes, "The Two Koreas and the International Missile Trade," in The International Missile Bazaar, ed. W.C. Potter and H. W. Jencks (Boulder: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 136-138.
396. Peter Hayes, "Early Indicators: ROK Long-Range Missile Capabilities," NAPSNet, published by the Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, California, November 17, 1999, p. 2.
397. Lee Sung Yul, "U.S. Pressured Chun Doo Hwan to Scuttle Missile Development Program," Korea Herald, June 10, 1999, p. 3.
398. Kim Tae Woo, "ROK-US Missile Accord Should be Scrapped," Korea Post (October 1998): 26-27.
399. See also Kim Tae Woo, "South Korea's Missile Dilemmas," Asian Survey (May/June 1999): esp. p. 19.
400. James Risen, "South Korea Seen Trying to Extend Range of Missiles," New York Times, November 14, 1999, p. A1.
401. "Kim: This Is Basically a Win-Win Policy," Washington Times, October 19, 1999, p. A13.
402. Doug Struck, "As Relations Thaw, Seoul Suspends Arms Plan," Washington Post, June 25, 2000, p. A20.
403. See also Son Key Yong, "U.S. Halts Exports of Missile Parts to Korea," Korea Times, January 12, 2000, p. 3, and Phillip Finnegan, "South Korea, U.S. Slowly Advance to Missile Pact," Defense News, June 5, 2000, p. 1.
404. "'Scrap Nuclear Arsenal,' General Says," Los Angeles Times, July 17, 1994, p. A12.
405. See also the address by Gen. Lee Butler to the State of the World Forum convened by the Mikhail Gorbachev Foundation, San Francisco, October 2, 1996, and An Evolving U.S. Nuclear Posture, report of the project on eliminating weapons of mass destruction sponsored by the Henry L. Stimson Center, December 1995, of which Gen. Andrew J. Goodpaster, former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, served as chairman.
406. Mitchell Reiss, "KEDO and the DPRK: Problems and Prospects on the Road Ahead" (paper presented at "The Perry Report, the Missile Quagmire, and the North Korea Question: The Quest for New Alternatives," conference sponsored by Keio University, Tokyo, October 22, 1999), p. 4.
407. Comments before a conference on Korea sponsored by the Korea Society, Metropolitan Hotel, New York City, June 20, 2001, p. 4. For other discussions of the liability issue, see Steven Mufson, "U.S. Lauds Korean Talks, Says More Work Ahead," Washington Post, June 16, 2000, p. A25.
408. See also General Accounting Office, Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Implementation of the U.S./North Korea Agreement on Nuclear Issues, October 1996, p. 13.
409. Lee Dom Bok, "Beyond Geneva: Risks versus Opportunities" (paper prepared for "Nuclear Non-Proliferation in 1995: Renewal, Transition or Decline," conference sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., January 30, 1995), p. 6.
410. David Albright, Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Science and International Security, 2000), pp. 274-275. For details concerning Model Protocol 540,
411. see Michael May, ed., Verifying the Agreed Framework (Stanford: Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 2001), pp. 24-25.
412. Albright, Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle, pp. 117-126, esp. pp. 124-125.
413. Bradley O. Babson, "The North Korean Economy Today" (paper prepared for a roundtable on the North Korean economy sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Peace, January 4, 1999), p. 7.
414. This statement was made on May 18, 2000, during a debate on amendment no. 3 offered by Cox to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2001, changing the language of section 1205, Congressional Record, p. H3360.
415. Morton H. Halperin, "Let's Close the Nuclear Umbrella," Christian Science Monitor, January 23, 1992, p. 18.
416. The coalition agreement between the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party was concluded at Bonn on October 20, 1998. Joschka Fischer called for a change in NATO policy on the first use of nuclear weapons in interviews with Suddeutsche Zeitung, Munich, November 27, 1998, p. 9, and Der Spiegel, Hamburg, November 23, 1998, p. 84. His speech to the NATO Council presenting his views is reported in David Buchan, "Bonn Doubts over NATO N-Weapons," Financial Times, London, December 9, 1998, p. 3. The Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade, House of Commons, Canada, presented a similar view in Canada and the Nuclear Challenge: Reducing the Political Value of Nuclear Weapons for the Twenty-First Century, December 10, 1998 (see esp. p. 78).
417. George F. Kennan, "Back to the Nuclear Question," Washington Post, December 16, 1998, p. A31.
418. Morning Edition, National Public Radio, December 3, 1998.
419. General Butler and General Horner were among fifty-nine retired senior military officers in the United States and other countries who called for the United States to take the lead in pressing for the global elimination of nuclear weapons in a statement on December 4, 1996 ("Joint Statement on Reduction of Nuclear Weapon Arsenals: Declining Utility, Continuing Risks," Washington, D.C.). See also General Butler's speech at the Henry L. Stimson Center when the center awarded him its 1996 Award for Public Service on January 8, 1997, and General Horner's speech before an audience of journalists specializing in defense issues, reported in the Los Angeles Times, July 17, 1994.
420. Harold A. Feiveson, ed., The Nuclear Turning Point (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), esp. pp. 151-153.
421. Janne E. Nolan, An Elusive Consensus (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1999), pp. 111-122.
422. Feiveson, The Nuclear Turning Point, pp. 35-41, esp. p. 36.
423. Nolan, An Elusive Consensus, p. 100.
424. Feiveson, The Nuclear Turning Point, p. 40.
425. Joo Hong Nam, "U.S. Forces in Korea: Their Role and Strategy," Korea and World Affairs (summer 1987): 275-76.
426. See also Joo, America's Commitment to South Korea: The First Decade of the Nixon Doctrine (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980).
427. Kim Dae Jung, interview by the author, Seoul, May 1, 1992.
428. Kumao Kaneko, "Japan Needs No Umbrella," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (March/April 1996): 46-51.
429. Details of the Endicott effort can be found in the report of a conference sponsored by the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy, University of Georgia, Toward a Limited Nuclear Free Zone in Northeast Asia: Senior Panel's Deliberations on a Draft Initial Agreement, Atlanta, February 24, 1995. The signatories of this statement were Gen. Kim Jaechang, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Republic of Korea Army; Lt. Gen. Toshiyuki Shikata, former commander of the Northern Army, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force; Maj. Gen. V. N. Bunin, former director of Far Eastern affairs, Russian General Staff; and Prof. Xuetong Yan, deputy director, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
430. Selig S. Harrison, "China and the United States in Asia: Putting the 'Threat' in Perspective," in China's Future, ed. Ted Galen Carpenter (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 2000).
431. See also Selig S. Harrison and Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr., Asia after the 'Miracle': Redefining U.S. Economic and Security Priorities (Washington, D.C.: Economic Strategy Institute, 1998), pp. 71-73.
432. "For a Chain of N-Free Zones," Mainichi, December 18, 1995, p. 10.
433. "Lift the Nuclear Umbrella," Asahi, August 27, 1999, p. 13.
434. Morihiro Hosokawa, address to Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C., March 11, 1996.
435. Kobayashi Yosaji, ed., 1970: An Approach to Revisions of the Security Treaty (Tokyo: Yomiuri Shimbun, 1966), pt. 2, chap. 2, pp. 109-110.
436. Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (Washington, D.C.: Systems Planning Corporation, 1998), esp. p. 12.
437. William D. Hartung and Michelle Ciarrocca, Tangled Web: The Marketing of Missile Defense, 1994-2000 (New York: Arms Trade Resource Center Special Report, World Policy Institute, 2000), p. 1. Even at the research stage, Hartung and Ciarrocca show, the missile defense program has been lucrative for defense contractors. The ten contractors receiving the largest share of missile defense spending in 1998 and 1999 alone received $2.87 billion (table A, p. 18).
438. Statement by Mike McCurry, White House spokesman, August 13, 1998.
439. Space Imaging, Inc., of Thornton, Colorado, operated the Ikonos satellite that obtained photos of the North Korean site at Nodong in North Hamgyong province. The Federation of American Scientists study, Nuclear Forces Guide: Nodong, was released on the FAS website on January 2, 2000. See also William J. Broad, "Spy Photos of Korea Missile Site Bring Dispute," New York Times, January 11, 2000, p. 10.
440. Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States.
441. Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System (Cambridge, Mass.: Union of Concerned Scientists and the MIT Security Studies Program, 2000).
442. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kim Jong Il had made another offer to discuss discontinuing missile production in a meeting on July 18, 2000. According to Putin, Kim "voiced an idea under which North Korea is even prepared to use exclusively the rocket equipment of other countries for peaceful space research if they offered it" (Michael R. Gordon, "North Korea Reported Open to Halting Missile Program," New York Times, July 20, 2000, p. 10). Inconclusive efforts to pin down what Kim had in mind and how this idea might fit into a U.S.-North Korea missile settlement were made during Secretary of State Albright's visit to Pyongyang in October 2000 and in subsequent working-level discussions in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, two weeks later.
443. Hajime Izumi, address at a conference on Korean reunification sponsored by Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul, May 5, 1999.
444. For example, in a 1988 poll, 54 percent of Japanese said they disliked Koreans most and 51 percent of Koreans said they disliked Japanese most. R. M. March, "Face to Face," Korea Business World (October 1988): 36.
445. See also Chong Sik Lee, Japan and Korea: The Political Dimension (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, 1985), p. 2.
446. Chong, Japan and Korea, p. 15. Bruce Cumings, in Parallax Visions: Making Sense of American-East Asian Relations at the Turn of the Century (Durham: Duke University Press, 1998), p. 74, shows that "millions of Koreans were forcibly relocated to Japan, Manchuria and northern Korea for hard labor in mines and factories." At the same time, he documents the positive economic role that Japanese colonial economic policy played in initiating Korea's industrial revolution.
447. For an example of this ambivalence, see "'Pride' Highlights Flawed Trials," by Hisahiko Okazaki, a prominent retired diplomat and foreign policy commentator, reprinted from the Japan Times in the Korea Herald, July 15, 1988, p. 1.
448. Robert M. Orr, Jr., "The Rape of History," J.P.R.I. Critique 2 (July 1998): 1.
449. Edward Seidensticker, "Japan after Vietnam," Commentary (September 1975): 56.
450. This is cited in Kwan Ha Yim, "Korea in Japanese Foreign Policy" (paper prepared for the 1973 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans, September 4-8, 1973), p. 12.
451. Kimura's statements and the controversy surrounding them can be found in the Japan Times, Tokyo, August 31, 1974, and Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo, October 2 and December 9, 1974. See also Eiichi Imagawa, "Japan's Peaceful Coexistence Policy toward Korea" (paper prepared for the Conference of Japanese and U.S. Parliamentarians on Korean Problems, Washington, D.C., September 19-20, 1977), p. 29.
452. "Delicate Differences between U.S. and Japan," Nihon Keizai, August 8, 1975, p. 2. See also "We Urge Formulation of Korean Peninsula Policy Which Will Not Leave Behind Roots of Trouble for Future," an editorial in Nihon Keizai, on August 2, 1975. As examples of Japanese press coverage underlining the divergence in the U.S. and Japanese positions on the communiqúe language, see editorials in Mainichi ("U.S.-Japan Summit Talks Leave Doubts") and Tokyo Shimbun ("Different Evaluation of Japan on Japan-U.S. Summit Talks") on August 8, 1975 (translated in U.S. Embassy Press Translations).
453. "'R.O.K. Clause' Changed to 'Korean Clause,'" Sankei, August 7, 1975, p. 2.
454. Pyong Choon Hahm, "Korea's 'Mendicant Mentality'?" Foreign Affairs 43, no. 1 (October 1964): 171.
455. For details concerning Park's relations with the Japanese colonial regime, see Selig S. Harrison, The Widening Gulf: Asian Nationalism and American Policy (New York: Free Press, 1978), pp. 215, 246. The author covered Park's fundraising and political activity as Northeast Asia bureau chief of the Washington Post from 1968 to 1972.
456. Karl Moskowitz, "Korean-Japanese Economic Relations," in Korea's New Challenges and Kim Young Sam, ed. C. J. Sigur (New York: Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs, 1993), p. 60. See also Walter Hatch, "Grounding Asian Flying Geese: The Costs of Depending Heavily on Japanese Capital and Technology," Policy Report no. 3 (April 1998), entirety, published by the National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle.
457. "The Revival of Japanese Militarism," Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang, January 10, 1966. See also Masao Okonogi, "The Political Dynamics of Japan-North Korean Relations," Korea and World Affairs (summer 1989): 333.
458. Akio Watanabe, "Japanese-North Korean Relations and Korean Reunification" (paper prepared for a symposium at Hanyang University, Seoul, September 27, 1994), p. 13.
459. Ichiro Uchiyama, Cabinet Research Office, Japan's counterpart to the CIA National Intelligence Council, interview by the author, Tokyo, September 9, 1988.
460. Watanabe, "Japanese-North Korean Relations and Korean Reunification," p. 15.
461. Denny Roy, "Japan's North Korea Policy," Asian Survey 28, no. 12 (December 1988): 1287-1288.
462. Kei Wakaizumi, "Japan's 'Grand Experiment' and the Japanese-American Alliance" (paper delivered at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, October 9, 1975), p. 33.
463. "Foreign Minister Refers to Inflow of Refugees and Routed Troops as Effect of 'War in R.O.K.' upon Japan's Security," Yomiuri, August 23, 1975, p. 1.
464. Masao Okonogi, "The North Korean Crisis and Japan's Choice" (paper prepared for a conference on Korean reunification sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, March 10, 1997), p. 10.
465. Watanabe, "Japanese-North Korean Relations and Korean Reunification," p. 11.
466. Okonogi, "The North Korean Crisis and Japan's Choice," p. 16.
467. Yoichi Funabashi, "Tokyo's Depression Diplomacy," Foreign Affairs 77, no. 6 (November/December 1998): 30.
468. See also Masao Okonogi, "Beyond the Status Quo: A View from Japan" (paper prepared for "Kim Dae Jung's Sunshine Policy," conference at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., May 17, 1999); and Hajime Izumi, "Recent Developments on North Korea and the Perry Initiative" (paper prepared for "The Future of North-South Relations" conference sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, February 24, 2000).
469. Hae Jong Chun, "Sino-Korean Tributary Relations in the Ching Period," in The Chinese World Order: Traditional China's Foreign Relations, ed. John King Fairbank (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1968), p. 111.
470. Carter J. Eckert, "China and Korea in Historical Perspective," in Historical Perspectives on Contemporary East Asia, ed. Merle Goldman and Andrew Gordon (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. 120-122.
471. Bruce Cumings, Korea's Place in the Sun (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997), p. 100.
472. This figure has been compiled primarily from the annual tables from 1972 to 1977 in World Armaments and Disarmament, the yearbook published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell), and from the annual tables from 1963 to 1975 in World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, published by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. These estimates were based on intelligence sources and media reports in addition to the limited published Soviet and Chinese data. Credible fragmentary evidence from my own intelligence sources and a wide variety of published sources was also taken into account (e.g., the Defense White Papers of the Republic of Korea, especially those for 1989 and 1990).
473. R. Bates Gill, Chinese Arms Transfers (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1992), esp. chap. 2.
474. Chae Jin Lee, China and Korea: Dynamic Relations (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1996), pp. 70-72.
475. Robert Dujarric, Korea: Security Pivot in Northeast Asia (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, 1998), p. 66.
476. Ki Joon Kang, Damul Koe Yuksa Wa Eu Yaksok (Damul and its promise to history) (Seoul: Damul Press, 1997), pp. 48-52.
477. See also Damul Minjok Hagkyo (One who rules East Asia rules the world), a brochure describing the goals of the Damul Institute, and the institute's monthly magazine, Buksori (The sound of the drums). Selections from Ki Joon Kang's book were translated for the author by Jihyun Kim. For a discussion of ethnic Koreans living in China, see Han S. Park, "Koreans in China: Political Implications" (paper prepared for the Korea Seminar, Columbia University, March 15, 1985).
478. Steve Glain, "After 1,300 Years, White-Collar Armies Target Manchuria," Wall Street Journal, October 9, 1995, p. A1.
479. Shunji Taoka, "Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces in the Next Century," Sekai No Kansen (December 1995): 31-37 (translated in FBISEAS-96-068).
480. K. O. Emery, "Geological Structure and Some Water Characteristics of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea," CCOP Technical Bulletin (Bangkok: United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East, 1969), p. 41.
481. Banning Garrett and Bonnie Glaser, "How China Views Korea and Its Future," Asian Survey 35, no. 6 (June 1995): 544. See also "Report on a Study Mission to Beijing," June 10, 1995, p. 4.
482. Banning Garrett, "Chinese Views of the North Korean Situation and U.S. Korea Policy: Key Findings" (discussion outline prepared for a Brookings Institution seminar on January 14, 1999, based on discussions in Beijing, December 8-11, 1998).
483. "Toward Unshakable Japan-ROK Ties," Daily Yomiuri, November 16, 1995, p. 17. See also "Jiang, Kim Hold Joint Press Conference," BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, November 20, 1995 (EE/D2461/D), reporting Korean Broadcasting System radio report, 0500 GMT, November 14, 1995; and John Burton, "Jiang Cements Ties with Seoul," Financial Times, November 15, 1995, p. 4.
484. Tao Bingwei, "Some Views on the Question of the Korean Peninsula" (paper presented at "The North Korea Policies of the U.S., Russia, China and Japan," symposium sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, November 26, 1996), p. 48.
485. Kim Byong Hong, interview by the author, Pyongyang, September 29, 1995.
486. Hwang Chang Yop, interview by the author, Seoul, May 4, 1999.
487. Yang Li Wen, "The Korean Peninsula Situation in the Eyes of the Chinese Media (1978-1988)" (paper prepared for a conference on China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., March 10, 1990), pp. 16-17.
488. For example, see Jia Hao and Zhuang Qubing, "China's Policy toward the Korean Peninsula," Asian Survey 32, no. 12 (December 1992): 1154.
489. For example, see "The United States and Korea," Beijing Review, September 5, 1987, p. 7.
490. Ye Ruan, "The Historical Transformation of the Korean Peninsula and China's Concerns" (paper presented at the Workshop on Security and the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s, Australian National University, Canberra, March 25-27, 1992), p. 8.
491. Morton H. Halperin, "U.S. Security Objectives after Korean Reunification" (paper prepared for a conference sponsored by the Century Foundation, March 3, 1998), p. 3.
492. Paul H. Kreisberg, "Korea and Asia in the Twenty First Century" (paper prepared for a conference at the Naval War College, March 10, 1997), p. 10.
493. Eric A. McVadon, "Chinese Military Strategy in the Korean Peninsula," in China's Military Faces the Future, ed. James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh (Washington, D.C.: M. E. Sharpe for the American Enterprise Institute, 1999), p. 276.
494. Robert A. Scalapino, "Korean Security after Unification" (paper prepared for a conference on Asian security in the twenty-first century, East-West Center, Honolulu, November 1, 1996), p. 21.
495. Vipin Chandra, Imperialism, Resistance and Reform in Late Nineteenth Century Korea (Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1988), p. 46.
496. Cho Soon Sung, Korea in World Politics: An Evaluation of American Responsibility (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967), p. 45.
497. Dimitri Volkogonov, Autopsy for an Empire (New York: Free Press, 1998), p. 418.
498. Richard Nixon, statement at press conference, April 18, 1969.
499. Kim Il Sung, interview by the author, Pyongyang, June 9, 1994.
500. Evgeniy Bajanov, "Russia and North Korea," (paper presented at "The North Korea Policies of Russia, China, Japan and the United States," conference sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, November 26, 1996), p. 68.
501. Evgeniy Bajanov and Natasha Bazhanova, "The Evolution of Russian-Korean Relations," Asian Survey 34, no. 9 (September 1994): 792-793.
502. Stephen J. Blank, Russian Policy and the Korean Crisis (Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), p. 19.
503. Alvin Z. Rubinstein, "Russia's Relations with North Korea," in Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Role in Asia, ed. Stephen J. Blank and Alvin Z. Rubinstein (Durham: Duke University Press, 1997), p. 173.
504. "Joint Declaration, V. V. Putin, President, the Russian Federation, and Kim Jong Il, Chairman, National Defense Commission, Democratic People's Republic of Korea," July 19, 2000, para. 2.
505. Bajanov, "Russia and North Korea," p. 63.
506. Chikahito Harada, Russia and Northeast Asia, Adelphi Paper 310 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1997), p. 70.
507. Keun Wook Paik, "Pipeline Gas in Northeast Asia: Recent Developments and Regional Perspective," briefing paper no. 39, (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), p. 6.
508. Keun Wook Paik, "Revitalizing North Korea's Energy through the Pipeline Gas Option," Financial Times Asia Gas Report, London, September 2000), p. 4.
509. Alessandra Stanley, "Moscow Miffed by U.S. Draft on Korea," New York Times, June 17, 1994, p. 3.
510. Carla Ann Robbins, "An Iran-North Korea Swap?" Wall Street Journal, May 5, 1995, p. 14.
511. Leonid Mlechin, "We Are Being Squeezed Out," Izvestia, October 29, 1994, p. 3.
512. Robert Dujarric, Korea: Security Pivot in Northeast Asia (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, 1998), p. 110.
513. Jun Kwan Hoo, "Year of the Moscow-Seoul Ties," Newsreview, Seoul, January 9, 1999, p. 6.
514. "Russia Must Be Active in the Asia-Pacific Region," Nezavisimaia Gazeta, February 23, 1999, p. 6. For surveys of Russia's response to U.S. policy in Korea, see Dujarric, Korea, pp. 108-12; Rubinstein, "Russia's Relations with North Korea," pp. 175-83; and Ralph A. Cossa, The Major Powers in Northeast Asian Security, McNair Paper 51 (Washington, D.C.: Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, 1966), pp. 41-51.
515. Bruce Cumings, Korea's Place in the Sun (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997), p. 188.
516. James A. Baker, "America in Asia," Foreign Affairs 71 (winter 1991-92): 13.
517. Jonathan D. Pollack and Young Koo Cha, A New Alliance for the Next Century (Santa Monica, Calif.: National Defense Research Institute, RAND, 1996), esp. pp. 68-69.
518. W. E. Odom, Trial after Triumph: East Asia after The Cold War (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, 1996), pp. 134-35. See also Odom, Korean Unification and After: The Challenge for U.S. Strategy (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, 2000), esp. p. 35.
519. Selig S. Harrison, Japan's Nuclear Future: The Plutonium Debate and East Asian Security (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 24-25.
520. Gennady Chufrin, "Korea and Russia: Looking Ahead" (paper presented at "The North Korea Policies of Russia, China, Japan and the United States," conference sponsored by the Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation, Seoul, November 26, 1996), p. 10.
521. Alvin Z. Rubenstein, "Russia's Relations with North Korea," in Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Role in Asia, ed. Stephen J. Blank and Alvin Z. Rubenstein (Durham: Duke University Press, 1997), p. 175.