What can we learn about climate feedbacks from short-term climate variations?

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 65, Issue , 2013, Pages 1-17

  Koumoutsaris, Symeon ^a,b  

^a INTERNATIONAL SPACE SCIENCE INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

^b RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; ENSO; Feedbacks; Long term; Radiative kernels

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE FEEDBACK; CLIMATE VARIATION; DATA SET; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; RADIATIVE TRANSFER; GREENHOUSE GAS;

EID: 84882595026     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.18887     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. AchutaRao, K. and Sperber, K. R. 2006. ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better? Clim. Dyn. 27, 1-15.
2. Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M. 2008. CO2 forcing induces semidirect effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04802. DOI: 10.1029/2007 GL032273.
3. Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Forster, P. M. and Webb, M. J. 2011. Cloud adjustment and its role in CO2 radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Surv. Geophys. 33, 619-635. DOI: 10.1007/ s10712-011-9152-0.
4. Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. 2009. On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Clim. Dyn. 36, 419-430. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0680-y.
5. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I. and Roeckner, E. 2005. Storm tracks and climate change. J. Clim. 19, 3518-3543.
6. Bitz, C. M. 2008. Some aspects of uncertainty in predicting sea ice thinning. In: Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, AGU Geophysical Monograph Series (eds. E. deWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay). American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp. 63-76.
7. Boe, J., Hall, A. and Qu, Z. 2010. Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century. Clim. Change. 99, 637-645.
8. Bony, S., Colman, R., Kattsov, V. M., Allan, R. P., Bretherton, C. S. and co-authors. 2006. How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes? J. Clim. 19, 3445-3482.
9. Chung, E.-S., Soden, B. J. and Clement, A. C. 2012. Diagnosing climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Surv. Geophys. 33, 733-744. DOI: 10.1007/s10712-012-9187-x.
10. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P. and co-authors. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 137, 553-597.
11. Dessler, A. E. 2010. A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade. Science. 330, 1523-1527. DOI: 10.1126/science/1192546.
12. Dessler, A. E. 2012. Observations of climate feedbacks over 2000- 2010 and comparison to climate models. J. Clim. DOI: 10.1175/ JCLI-D-11-00640.1.
13. Dessler, A. E. and Sherwood, S. C. 2009. A matter of humidity. Science. 323, 1020-1021. DOI: 10.1126/science.1171264.
14. Dessler, A. E., Zhang, Z. and Yang, P. 2008. Water-vapour climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations 2003-2008. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L20704.
15. Forster, P. M. D. and Gregory, J. M. 2006. The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from earth radiation budget data. J. Clim. 19, 39-52.
16. Glecker, P. J., Taylor, K. E. and Doutriaux, C. 2008. Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D06104. DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008972.
17. Goose, H., Barriat, P. Y., Lefebvre, W., Loutre, M. F. and Zunz, V. 2010. Introduction to Climate Dynamics and Climate Modeling. Online at: http://www.climate.be/textbook
18. Gregory, J. M. and Webb, M. J. 2008. Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component in CO2 forcing. J. Clim. 21, 58-71.
19. Guilyardi, E., Bellenger, H., Collins, M., Ferrett, S., Cai, W. and Wittenberg, A. 2012. A first look at ENSO in CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges. 17, 29-32.
20. Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A., Collins, M., Wang, C. and co-authors. 2009. Understanding El Niño in Ocean- Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 90, 325-340.
21. Hall, A. and Qu, X. 2006. Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L03502. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL025127.
22. Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686-5699.
23. Huybers, P. 2010. Compensation between model feedbacks and curtailment of climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 23, 3009-3018.
24. Joseph, R. and Nigam, S. 2005. ENSO evoluation and teleconnections in IPCC's twentieth-century climate simulations: realistic representation? J. Clim. 19, 4360-4377.
25. Klein, S. A., Soden, B. J. and Lau, N.-C. 1999. Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Clim. 12, 917-932.
26. Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. and Meehl, G. A., 2010. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J. Clim. 23, 2739-2758.
27. Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Allen, M. R. and Stainforth, D. A. 2006. Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. J. Clim. 19, 4224-4233.
28. Lindzen, S. R. and Choi, Y.-S. 2011. On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications. Asia- Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 47, 377-390.
29. Liu, J., Curry, J. A. and Hu, Y. 2004. Recent Arctic sea ice variability: connections to the Arctic oscillation and the ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L09211. DOI: 10129/2004GL019858.
30. Loeb, N. G., Wielicki, B. A., Doelling, D. R., Smith, G. L., Keyes, D. F. and co-authors. 2009. Towards optimal closure of the Earth's top-of atmosphere radiation budget. J. Clim. 22, 748-766.
31. Lu, J., Chen, G. and Frierson, D. M. W. 2008. Response of the zonal mean atmospheric circulation to El Niño versus global warming. J. Clim. 21, 5835-5851.
32. Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B. and co-authors. 2007a. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 88, 1383-1394.
33. Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B. and co-authors. 2007b. Global Climate Projections, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. S. Solomon et al.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
34. Mitas, C. M. and Clement, A. C. 2006. Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01810. DOI: 10.1029/ 2005GL024406.
35. Murphy, D. M., Solomon, S., Portmann, R. W., Rosenlof, K. H., Forster, P. M. and co-authors. 2009. An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D17107. DOI: 10.1029/2009JD012105.
36. Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P. and Stordal, F. 1998. New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2715-2718.
37. Nakićenović , N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J. and co-authors. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. N. Nakićenović and R. Swart). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 599.
38. National Research Council. 2003. Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (UCCF). The National Academy Press, Washington, DC. Online at: http://www.nap.edu/
39. Onogi, K., Tsutsui, J., Koide, H., Sakamoto, M., Kobayashi, S. and co-authors. 2007. The JRA-25 reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 85, 369-432.
40. Pincus, R., Batstone, C. P., Hofmann, R. J. P., Taylor, K. E. and Glecker, P. J. 2008. Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D14209. DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009334.
41. Previdi, M. 2010. Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 025211.
42. Reichler, T. and Kim, J. 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Br. Am. Meteor. Soc. 89, 303.
43. Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P. and Pollack, J. B. 1993. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 22987-22994.
44. Shell, K., Jeffrey, M., Kiehl, T. and Shields, C. A. 2008. Using the radiative kernel technique to calculate climate feedbacks in NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model. J. Clim. 21, 2269-2282.
45. Soden, B. J., Held, I. M., Colman, R., Shell, K., Kiehl, J. T. and Schields, C. A. 2008. Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. J. Clim. 21, 3504-3520.
46. Spencer, R. W. and Braswell, W. D. 2011. On the misdiagnosis of surface temperature feedbacks from variations in earth's radiant energy balance. Remote. Sens. 3, 1603-1613.
47. Stephens, L. G. 2005. Cloud feedbacks in the climate system: a critical review. J. Clim. 18, 237-273.
48. Trenberth, K. E. and Fasullo, J. T. 2010. Simulation of presentday and twenty-first century energy budgets of the southern oceans. J. Clim. 23, 440-454.
49. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., O'Doell, C. and Wong, T. 2010. Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and topof- the-atmosphere radiation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L03702.
50. Turner, J. 2004. Review: the El Niño-southern oscillation and Antarctica. Int. J. Climatol. 24, 1-31.
51. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S. Y. and Collins, M. 2005. El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study. Ocean. Sci. 1, 81-95.
52. Williams, K. D., Ingram, W. J. and Gregory, J. M. 2008. Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs. J. Clim. 21, 5076-5090.
53. Yin, J. H. 2005. A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of the 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18701.
54. Yuan, X. 2004. ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea-ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. Antarct. Sci. 16, 415-425.
55. Zelinka, M. and Hartmann, D. L. 2011. Climate feedbacks and their implications for poleward energy flux changes in a warming climate. J. Clim. 25, 608-624.
56. Zelinka, M., Klein, S. A. and Hartmann, D. L. 2012. Computing and partitioning cloud feedbacks using cloud property histograms. Part II: attribution to the nature of cloud changes. J. Clim. 25, 3736-3754. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLID-11-00248.1.
57. Zhu, P., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J. T. and Bretherton, C. S. 2007. Climate sensitivity of tropical and subtropical marine low cloud amount to ENSO and global warming due to doubled CO2. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D17108. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008174.