Quantifying the trade-off between parameter and model structure uncertainty in life cycle impact assessment

Environmental Science and Technology

Volumn 47, Issue 16, 2013, Pages 9274-9280

  Van Zelm, Rosalie ^a   Huijbregts, Mark A J ^a  

^a RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DISCRETE CHOICE ANALYSIS; LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT; MODEL STRUCTURE UNCERTAINTIES; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY; PESTICIDE APPLICATIONS; PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION; TRANSFORMATION PRODUCTS; UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT;

DAMAGE DETECTION; DEGRADATION; LINEAR TRANSFORMATIONS; MATHEMATICAL TRANSFORMATIONS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; PESTICIDES;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FRESH WATER; PESTICIDE;

CROP PRODUCTION; DAMAGE; DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP; ECOTOXICOLOGY; FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM; LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS; MAIZE; METABOLITE; NUMERICAL MODEL; PESTICIDE APPLICATION; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; TRADE-OFF; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; DEGRADATION; ECOTOXICITY; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT; MAIZE; METABOLITE; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NETHERLANDS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

NETHERLANDS;

ENVIRONMENT; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PESTICIDES; UNCERTAINTY; WATER POLLUTANTS, CHEMICAL; ZEA MAYS;

EID: 84882584335     PISSN: 0013936X     EISSN: 15205851     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1021/es305107s     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Ascough, J. C.; Maier, H. R.; Ravalico, J. K.; Strudley, M. W. Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making Ecol. Model. 2008, 219 (3-4) 383-399
2. Van der Sluijs, J. P.; Craye, M.; Funtowicz, S.; Kloprogge, P.; Ravetz, J.; Risbey, J. Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model-based environmental assessment: The NUSAP system Risk Anal. 2005, 25 (2) 481-492
3. Funtowicz, S.; Ravetz, J. Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy; Kluwer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990.
4. Walker, W.; Harremoës, P.; Rotmans, J.; Van der Sluijs, J. P.; Van Asselt, M.; Janssen, P.; Krayer von Krauss, M. Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support Integr. Assess. 2003, 4 (1) 5-17
5. Finnveden, G.; Hauschild, M. Z.; Ekvall, T.; Guinée, J.; Heijungs, R.; Hellweg, S.; Koehler, A.; Pennington, D.; Suh, S. Recent developments in Life Cycle Assessment J. Environ. Manage. 2009, 91, 1-21
6. Guinée, J. B.; Heijungs, R.; Udo de Haes, H. A.; Huppes, G. Quantitative life cycle assessment of products: 2. Classification, valuation and improvement analysis J. Clean Prod. 1993, 1 (2) 81-91
7. Consoli, F.; Allen, D.; Boustead, I.; Fava, J.; Franklin, W.; Jensen, A. A.; De Oude, N.; Parrish, R.; Perriman, R.; Postlethwaite, D.; Quay, B.; Séquin, J.; Vigon, B. Guidelines for Life-Cycle Assessment: A "Code of Practice"; Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Pensacola, FL, 1993.
8. Udo de Haes, H. A.; Jolliet, O.; Finnveden, G.; Hauschild, M.; Krewitt, W.; Müller-Wenk, R. Best available practice regarding impact categories and category indicators in life cycle impact assessment Int. J. LCA 1999, 4, 66-74
9. Finkel, A. Toward less misleading comparisons of uncertain risks: The example of aflatoxin and alar Environ. Health Perspect. 1995, 103 (4) 376-385
10. Lloyd, S. M.; Ries, R. Characterizing, propagating, and analyzing uncertainty in life-cycle assessment-A survey of quantitative approaches J. Ind. Ecol. 2007, 11 (1) 161-179
11. Hertwich, E. G.; McKone, T. E.; Pease, W. S. Parameter uncertainty and variability in evaluative fate and exposure models Risk Anal. 1999, 19 (6) 1193-1204
12. U.S. EPA. Guidance on the Development, Evaluation, and Application of Environmental Models; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, 2009; p 99.
13. Hauck, M.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Armitage, J. M.; Cousins, I. T.; Ragas, A. M. J.; van de Meent, D. Model and input uncertainty in multi-media fate modeling: Benzo a pyrene concentrations in Europe Chemosphere 2008, 72 (6) 959-967
14. Ragas, A. M. J. Uncertainty in environmental quality standards. PhD thesis, Katholieke Universiteit Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 2000.
15. McDonald, C. P.; Urban, N. R. Using a model selection criterion to identify appropriate complexity in aquatic biogeochemical models Ecol. Model. 2010, 221 (3) 428-432
16. Warmink, J. J.; Janssen, J.; Booij, M. J.; Krol, M. S. Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models Environ. Modell. Softw. 2010, 25 (12) 1518-1527
17. Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Gilijamse, W.; Ragas, A. M. J.; Reijnders, L. Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling Environ. Sci. Technol. 2003, 37, 2600-2608
18. Hung, M. L.; Ma, H. W. Quantifying system uncertainty of life cycle assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation Int. J. LCA 2009, 14 (1) 19-27
19. Lo, S. C.; Ma, H. W.; Lo, S. L. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in life cycle assessment using the Bayesian Monte Carlo method Sci. Total Environ. 2005, 340 (1-3) 23-33
20. Huijbregts, M. A. J. Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA. Part I: A general framework for the analysis of uncertainty and variability in life cycle assessment Int. J. LCA 1998, 3 (5) 273-280
21. Hertwich, E. G.; McKone, T. E.; Pease, W. S. A systematic uncertainty analysis of an evaluative fate and exposure model Risk Anal. 2000, 20 (4) 439-454
22. De Schryver, A. M.; Van Zelm, R.; Humbert, S.; Pfister, S.; McKone, T. E.; Huijbregts, M. A. J. Value choices in life cycle impact assessment of stressors causing human health damage J. Ind. Ecol. 2011, 15 (5) 796-815
23. Pennington, D. W.; Payet, J.; Hauschild, M. Aquatic ecotoxicological indicators in life-cycle assessment Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2004, 23, 1796-1807
24. Van Zelm, R.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Harbers, J. V.; Wintersen, A.; Struijs, J.; Posthuma, L.; Van de Meent, D. Uncertainty in msPAF-based ecotoxicological effect factors for freshwater ecosystems in life cycle impact assessment Integr. Environ. Assess. Manage. 2007, 3 (2) 203-210
25. Ometto, A. R.; Hauschild, M. Z.; Roma, W. N. L. Lifecycle assessment of fuel ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil Int. J. LCA 2009, 14 (3) 236-247
26. Panichelli, L.; Dauriat, A.; Gnansounou, E. Life cycle assessment of soybean-based biodiesel in Argentina for export Int. J. LCA 2009, 14 (2) 144-159
27. Luo, L.; van der Voet, E.; Huppes, G.; de Haes, H. A. U. Allocation issues in LCA methodology: A case study of corn stover-based fuel ethanol Int. J. LCA 2009, 14 (6) 529-539
28. Van der Linden, A. M. A.; Deneer, J. W.; Luttik, R.; Smidt, R. A. Dutch Environmental Indicator for Plant Protection Products-Description of Input Data and Calculation Methods; 716601009; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment: Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 2004.
29. FAOSTAT. Crops; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAOSTAT), 2011.
30. Van Zelm, R.; Larrey-Lassalle, P.; Roux, P. Bridging the gap between Life Cycle Inventory and Impact Assessment for toxicological assessments of pesticides used in crop production. Chemosphere 2013, submitted
31. Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Struijs, J.; Goedkoop, M.; Heijungs, R.; Hendriks, A. J.; Van de Meent, D. Human population intake fractions and environmental fate factors of toxic pollutants in life cycle impact assessment Chemosphere 2005, 61 (10) 1495-1504
32. Van Zelm, R.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Posthuma, L.; Wintersen, A.; Van de Meent, D. Pesticide ecotoxicological effect factors and their uncertainties for freshwater ecosystems Int. J. LCA 2009, 14 (1) 43-51
33. Van Zelm, R.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Van de Meent, D. Transformation products in the life cycle impact assessment of pesticides Environ. Sci. Technol. 2010, 44, 1004-1009
34. Vermeire, T.; Rikken, M.; Attias, L.; Boccardi, P.; Boeije, G.; Brooke, D.; De Bruijn, J.; Comber, M.; Dolan, B.; Fischer, S.; Heinemeyer, G.; Koch, V.; Lijzen, J.; Müller, B.; Murray-Smith, R.; Tadeo, J. European union system for the evaluation of substances: The second version Chemosphere 2005, 59, 473-485
35. Van Zelm, R.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Van de Meent, D. USES-LCA 2.0: A global nested multi-media fate, exposure and effects model Int. J. LCA 2009, 14, 282-284
36. Payet, J. Assessing toxic impacts on aquatic ecosystems in life cycle assessment (LCA). PhD, Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland, 2004.
37. Posthuma, L.; De Zwart, D. Predicted effects of toxicant mixtures are confirmed by changes in fish species assemblages in Ohio, USA, rivers Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2006, 25 (4) 1094-1105
38. Slob, W. Uncertainty analysis in multiplicative models Risk Anal. 1994, 14, 571-576
39. Rikken, M. G. J.; Van Wijnen, H. J.; Linders, J. B. H. J.; Jager, D. T. Uncertainty Analysis of USES 3.0. Improving Risk Management through Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Agricultural Pesticides; RIVM 601450011/2002; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment: Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 2002.
40. Atkinson, R. Estimation of gas-phase hydroxyl radical rate constants for organic chemicals Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 1988, 7, 435-442
41. Fenner, K.; Scheringer, M.; Hungerbühler, K. Joint persistence of transformation products in chemicals assessment: Case studies and uncertainty analysis Risk Anal. 2003, 23 (1) 35-53
42. Aldenberg, T.; Jaworska, J. S. Uncertainty of the hazardous concentration and fraction affected for normal species sensitivity distributions Ecotoxicol. Environ. Saf. 2000, 46, 1-18
43. Reuschenbach, P.; Silvani, M.; Dammann, M.; Warnecke, D.; Knacker, T. ECOSAR model performance with a large test set of industrial chemicals Chemosphere 2008, 71 (10) 1986-1995
44. Van den Brink, P. J.; Brock, T. C. M.; Posthuma, L. The value of the species sensitivity distribution concept for predicting field effects: (non-)confirmation of the concept using semifield experiments. In Species Sensitivity Distributions in Ecotoxicology; Posthuma, L.; Suter, II, G. W.; Traas, T. P., Eds.; Lewis: Boca Raton, FL, 2002; pp 155-193.
45. Snell, T. W.; Serra, M. Using probability of extinction to evaluate the ecological significance of toxicant effects Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2000, 19 (9) 2357-2363
46. Curran, M.; de Baan, L.; De Schryver, A. M.; van Zelm, R.; Hellweg, S.; Koellner, T.; Sonnemann, G.; Huijbregts, M. A. J. Toward meaningful end points of biodiversity in life cycle assessment Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45 (1) 70-79
47. Rosenbaum, R. K.; Bachmann, T. M.; Swirsky Gold, L.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Jolliet, O.; Juraske, R.; Koehler, A.; Larsen, H. F.; Macleod, M.; Margni, M.; McKone, T. E.; Payet, J.; Schuhmacher, M.; Van de Meent, D.; Hauschild, M. Z. USEtox-The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: Recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment Int. J. LCA 2008, 13 (7) 532-546
48. Fenner, K.; Scheringer, M.; Hungerbühler, K. Persistence of parent compounds and transformation products in a level IV multimedia model Environ. Sci. Technol. 2000, 34, 3809-3817
49. Golsteijn, L.; Hendriks, H. W. M.; Van Zelm, R.; Ragas, A. M. J.; Huijbregts, M. A. J. Do interspecies correlation estimations increase the reliability of toxicity estimates for wildlife? Ecotoxicol. Environ. Saf. 2012, 80, 238-243
50. Hertwich, E. G.; Hammitt, J. K. A decision-analytic framework for impact assessment. Part 2: midpoints, endpoints, and criteria for method development Int. J. LCA 2001, 6 (5) 265-272
51. Escher, B. I.; Fenner, K. Recent advances in environmental risk assessment of transformation products Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45 (9) 3835-3847
52. Larsen, H. F.; Hauschild, M. Evaluation of ecotoxicity effect indicators for use in LCIA Int. J. LCA 2007, 12 (1) 24-33
53. Van Goethem, T.; Preiss, P.; Azevedo, L. B.; Friedrich, R.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Van Zelm, R. European characterization factors for damage to natural vegetation by ozone in life cycle impact assessment Atmos. Environ. 2013, 77, 318-324
54. De Zwart, D. Observed regularities in species sensitivity distributions for aquatic species. In Species Sensitivity Distributions in Ecotoxicology; Posthuma, L.; Suter, II, G. W.; Traas, T. P., Eds.; Lewis: Boca Raton, FL, 2002; pp 133-154.
55. Ramin, M.; Labencki, T.; Boyd, D.; Trolle, D.; Arhonditsis, G. B. A Bayesian synthesis of predictions from different models for setting water quality criteria Ecol. Model. 2012, 242, 127-145
56. Rode, M.; Arhonditsis, G.; Balin, D.; Kebede, T.; Krysanova, V.; Van Griensven, A.; Van der Zee, S. New challenges in integrated water quality modelling Hydrol. Processes 2010, 24, 3447-3461