Regional variation in the impact of climate change: Evidence that bottom-up regulation from plankton to seabirds is weak in parts of the Northeast Atlantic

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 488, Issue , 2013, Pages 11-22

  Lauria, Valentina ^a,e   Attrill, Martin J ^b   Brown, Andrew ^c   Edwards, Martin ^d   Votier, Stephen C ^b  

^a Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^c NATURAL ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^d THE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^e NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND   (Ireland)

Author keywords

Pelagic food web; Regional variability; Seabirds; Trophic linkages

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BIODIVERSITY; BOTTOM-UP APPROACH; CLIMATE CHANGE; FISH; FOOD WEB; GLOBAL CHANGE; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; PLANKTON; PREDATOR-PREY INTERACTION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEABIRD; TROPHIC LEVEL;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTHEAST);

EID: 84882314264     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps10401     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Aebischer NJ, Coulson JC, Colebrook JM (1990) Parallel long-term trends across four marine trophic levels and weather. Nature 347: 753-755
2. Ainley DG, Ford RG, Brown ED, Suryan RM, Iron DB (2003) Prey resources, competition, and geographic structure of kittiwake colonies in prince William Sound. Ecology 84: 709-723
3. Arnott SA, Ruxton GD (2002) Sandeel recruitment in the North Sea: demographic, climatic and trophic effects. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 238: 199-210
4. Arrhenius F (1996) Diet composition and food selectivity of 0-group herring (Clupea harengus L.) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in the northern Baltic Sea. ICES J Mar Sci 53: 701-712
5. Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2003) Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate. Glob Change Biol 9: 801-817
6. Beaugrand G, Reid PC, Ibanez F, Lindley JA, Edwards M (2002) Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296: 1692-1694
7. Beaugrand G, Edwards M, Brander K, Luczak C, Ibanez F (2008) Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic. Ecol Lett 11: 1157-1168
8. Beaugrand G, Luczak C, Edwards M (2009) Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Glob Change Biol 15: 1790-1803
9. Borer ET, Seabloom EW, Shurin JB, Anderson KE and others (2005) What determines the strength of a trophic cascade? Ecology 86: 528-537
10. Brander K (2010) Impacts of climate change and fisheries. J Mar Syst 79: 389-402
11. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY
12. Chivers LS, Lundy MG, Colhoun K, Newton SF, Reid N (2012) Diet of black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) feeding chicks at two Irish colonies highlights the importance of clupeids. Bird Study 59: 363-367
13. Cury PM, Boyd IL, Bonhommeau S, Anker-Nilssen T and others (2011) Global seabird response to forage fish depletionone-third for the birds. Science 334: 1703-1706
14. Cushing D (1982) Climate and fisheries. Academic Press, London
15. Drinkwater KF, Myers RA (1987) Testing predictions of marine fish and shellfish landings from environmental variables. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 44: 1568-1573
16. Dulvy NK, Rogers SI, Jennings S, Stelzenmüller V, Dye SR, Skjoldal HR (2008) Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. J Appl Ecol 45: 1029-1039
17. Durant JM, Stenseth NC, Anker-Nilssen T, Harris MP, Thompson PM, Wanless S (2004) Marine birds and climate fluctuation in the North Atlantic. In: Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Belgrano A (eds) Marine ecosystems and climate variation: the North Atlantica comparative perspective. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 95-105
18. Edwards M, Johns DG, Licandro P, John AWG, Stevens DP (2006) Ecological status report: results from the CPR survey 2004/2005. SAHFOS Tech Rep 4: 1-8, Plymouth
19. Frederiksen M, Wanless S, Harris MP, Rothery P, Wilson LJ (2004) The role of industrial fisheries and oceanographic change in the decline of North Sea black-legged kittiwakes. J Appl Ecol 41: 1129-1139
20. Frederiksen M, Wright PJ, Harris MP, Mavor RA, Heubeck M, Wanless S (2005) Regional patterns of kittiwake Rissa tridactyla breeding success are related to variability in sandeel recruitment. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 300: 201-211
21. Frederiksen M, Edwards M, Richardson AJ, Hallyday NC, Wanless S (2006) From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels. J Anim Ecol 75: 1259-1268
22. Frederiksen M, Edwards M, Mavor RA, Wanless S (2007) Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 350: 137-143
23. Frederiksen M, Daunt F, Harris MP, Wanless S (2008) The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird. J Anim Ecol 77: 1020-1029
24. Furness RW, Greenstreet SPR, Walsh PM (1996) Spatial and temporal variability in the breeding success of seabirds around the British Isles: evidence for distinct sandeel stocks? In: Hunt GL, Furness RW (eds) Seabird/fish interactions, with particular reference to seabirds in the North Sea. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 216. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen, p 63-65
25. Furness RW, Tasker ML (2000) Seabird-fishery interactions: quantifying the sensitivity of seabirds to reductions in sandeel abundance and identification of key areas for sensitive seabirds in the North Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 202: 253-264
26. Hátún H, Sandø AB, Drange H, Hansen B, Valdimarsson H (2005) Influence of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre on the thermohaline circulation. Science 309: 1841 -1844
27. Hátún H, Payne MR, Beaugrand G, Reid PC and others (2009) Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: from the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales. Prog Oceanogr 80: 149-162
28. Henderson PA (2007) Discrete and continuous change in the fish community of the Bristol Channel in response to climate change. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 87: 589-598
29. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bruno JF (2010) The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems. Science 328: 1523-1528
30. Hogan CM (2011) Sea of the Hebrides. National Council for Science and the Environment, Washington, DC
31. Holligan PM (1981) Biological implications of fronts on the northwest European continental shelf. Philos Trans R Soc Lond A 302: 547 -562
32. Holligan PM, Harris RP, Newell RC, Harbour DS and others (1984) Vertical distribution and partitioning of organic carbon in mixed, frontal and stratified waters of the English Channel. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 14: 111-127
33. Hunter JR (1980) The feeding behavior and ecology of marine fish larvae. In: Bardach JE, Magnuson JJ, May RC, Reinhart JM (eds) Fish behaviour and its use in the capture and culture of fishes. ICLARM Conf Proc, International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management, Manila, p 287-330
34. ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) (2007) Report of the Working Group for Regional Ecosystem Description (WGRED). ICES CM 2007/ACE: 02, Copenhagen
35. ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) (2010) Report of the Herring Assessment Working Group for the area south of 62N (HAWG). 15-23 Mar 2010, ICES, Copenhagen
36. Irons DB, Anker-Nilssen T, Gaston AJ, Byrd V and others (2008) Fluctuations in circumpolar seabird populations linked to climate oscillations. Glob Change Biol 14: 1455-1463
37. JNCC (Joint Nature Conservation Committee) (2012) Blacklegged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla. http: //jncc.defra.gov. uk/ page-2889, accessed 18 April 2013
38. Lauria V, Attrill MJ, Pinnegar JK, Brown A, Edwards M, Votier SC (2012) Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea. PLoS ONE 7: e47408
39. Llope M, Licandro P, Chan KS, Stenseth NC (2012) Spatial variability of the plankton trophic interaction in the North Sea: a new feature after the early 1970s. Glob Change Biol 18: 106-117
40. Mann KH, Lazier JRN (1996) Dynamics of marine ecosystems. Biological-physical interactions in the oceans. Blackwell Science Publications, Oxford
41. Mavor RA, Parsons M, Heubeck M, Pickerell G, Schmitt S (2003) Seabird numbers and breeding success in Britain and Ireland, 2002. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough (UK Nature Conservation, No. 27)
42. McGinty N, Power AM, Johnson MP (2011) Variation among northeast Atlantic regions in the responses of zooplankton to climate change: Not all areas follow the same path. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 400: 120-131
43. Mitchell PI, Newton SF, Ratcliffe N, Dunn TE (eds) (2004) Seabird populations of Britain and Ireland, T & AD Poyser Ltd (A & C Black), Totnes
44. Olson DB (2002) Biophysical dynamics of ocean fronts. In: Robinson AR, McCarthy JJ, Rothschild, BJ (eds) The sea, Vol 12: biological-physical interactions in the sea. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, p 187-218
45. OSPAR (2002) Quality status report 2000 region III -Celtic seas. OSPAR Commission, London
46. Ottersen G, Stenseth NC (2001) Atlantic climate governs oceanographic and ecological variability in the Barents Sea. Limnol Oceanogr 46: 1774-1780
47. Ottersen G, Alheit J, Drinkwater K, Friedland K, Hagen E, Stenseth NC (2004) The response of fish populations to ocean climate fluctuations. In: Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Belgrado A (eds) Marine ecosystems and climate variation. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 73-94
48. Overland JE, Alheit J, Bakun A, Hurrell JW, Mackas DL, Miller AJ (2010) Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations. J Mar Syst 79: 305-315
49. Priede G, Miller PI (2009) A basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) tracked by satellite together with simultaneous remote sensing II: New analysis reveals orientation to a thermal front. Fish Res 95: 370-372
50. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
51. Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS (2004) Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. Science 305: 1609-1612
52. Richardson AJ, Walne AW, John AWG, Jonas TD and others (2006) Using continuous plankton recorder data. Prog Oceanogr 68: 27-74
53. Riou S, Gray CM, Brooke MdL, Quillfeldt P, Masello JF, Perrins C, Hamer KC (2011) Recent impacts of anthropogenic climate change on a higher marine predator in western Britain. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 422: 105-112
54. Russell FS (1976) The eggs and planktonic stages of British marine fishes. Academic Press, London
55. Sandvik H, Coulson T, Saether BE (2008) A latitudinal gradient in climate effects on seabird demography: results from interspecific analyses. Glob Change Biol 14: 703-713
56. Sathyendranath G, Cota V, Stuart H, Maass T, Platt J (2001) Remote sensing of phytoplankton pigments: a comparison of empirical and theoretical approaches. Int J Remote Sens 22: 249-273
57. Schneider DC (1990) Seabirds and fronts: a brief overview. Polar Res 8: 17-21
58. Shurin JB, Borer ET, Seabloom EW, Anderson K and others (2002) A cross-ecosystem comparison of the strength of trophic cascades. Ecol Lett 5: 785-791
59. Toresen R, Østvedt OJ (2000) Variation in abundance of Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae) throughout the 20th century and the influence of climatic fluctuations. Fish Fish 1: 231-256
60. Trenkel VM, Pinnegar JK, Dawson WA, du Buit MH, Tidd AN (2005) Spatial and temporal structure of predator-prey relationships in the Celtic Sea fish community. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 299: 257-268
61. Videau C (1987) Primary production and physiological state of phytoplankton at the Ushant tidal front (west coast of Brittany, France). Mar Ecol Prog Ser 35: 141-151
62. Votier SC, Hatchwell BJ, Beckerman A, McCleery RH and others (2005) Oil pollution and climate have wide scale impacts on seabirds demographics. Ecol Lett 8: 1157-1164
63. Votier SC, Birkhead TR, Oro D, Trinder M and others (2008a) Recruitment and survival of immature seabirds in relation to oil spills and climate variability. J Anim Ecol 77: 974-983
64. Votier SC, Heubeck M, Furness RW (2008b) Using intercolony variation in demographic parameters to assess the impact of skua predation on seabird populations. Ibis 150: 45-53