Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

Theoretical Ecology

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 255-264

  Boettiger, Carl ^a   Ross, Noam ^b   Hastings, Alan ^b  

^a University of California Santa Cruz   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Bifurcation; Critical slowing down; Early warning signals; Regime shifts

Indexed keywords

BIFURCATION; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; NUMERICAL MODEL; THEORETICAL STUDY;

EID: 84880698596     PISSN: 18741738     EISSN: 18741746     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12080-013-0192-6     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. The Resilience Alliance (2010) Assessing resilience in social-ecological systems: workbook for practitioners. Version 2. 0.
2. Anderies JM, Janssen MA, Walker BH (2002) Grazing management, resilience, and the dynamics of a fire-driven rangeland system. Ecosystems 5: 23-44.
3. Bailey RM (2010) Spatial and temporal signatures of fragility and threshold proximity in modelled semi-arid vegetation. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences.
4. Barnosky AD, Hadly EA, Bascompte J, Berlow EL, Brown JH, Fortelius M, Getz WM, Harte J, Hastings A, Marquet PA, Martinez ND, Mooers A, Roopnarine P, Vermeij G, Williams JW, Gillespie R, Kitzes J, Marshall C, Matzke N, Mindell DP, Revilla E, Smith AB (2012) Approaching a state shift in earth's biosphere. Nature 486: 52-58.
5. Bel G, Hagberg A, Meron E (2012) Gradual regime shifts in spatially extended ecosystems. Theor Ecol 5: 591-604.
6. Boerlijst MC, Oudman T, de Roos AM (2013) Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. PLoS ONE 8: 62033.
7. Boettiger C, Hastings A (2012a) Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy. Proc Royal Soc Biol Sci 279: 4734-4739.
8. Boettiger C, Hastings A (2012b) Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. J R Soc Interface R Soc 9: 2527-2539.
9. Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2010) Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings. Ecol Monogr 80: 353-367.
10. Brock WA, Carpenter SR (2012) Early warnings of regime shift when the ecosystem structure is unknown. PLoS ONE 7: 45586.
11. Carpenter SR (2011) Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92: 2196-2201.
12. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9: 311-318.
13. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2010) Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform. Ecosphere 1: 10.
14. Carpenter SR, Kitchell JF (1996) The trophic cascade in lakes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
15. Carpenter SR, Ludwig D, Brock WA (1999) Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change. Ecol Appl 9: 751-771.
16. Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Cole JJ, Kitchell JF, Pace ML (2008) Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecol Lett 11: 128-138.
17. Carpenter SR, Cole JJ, Pace ML, Batt R, Brock WA, Cline T, Coloso J, Hodgson JR, Kitchell JF, Seekell DA, Smith L, Weidel B (2011) Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332: 1079-1082.
18. Chisholm RA, Filotas E (2009) Critical slowing down as an indicator of transitions in two-species models. J Theor Biol 257: 142-149.
19. Cimatoribus AA, Drijfhout SS, Livina V, van der Schrier G (2013) Dansgaard-Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system. Clim Past 9: 323-333.
20. Costantino RF, Desharnais RA, Cushing JM, Dennis B (1997) Chaotic dynamics in an insect population. Science 275: 389-391.
21. Dai L, Vorselen D, Korolev KS, Gore J (2012) Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse. Science 336: 1175-1177.
22. Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105: 14308-14312.
23. Dakos V, Nes EH, Donangelo R, Fort H, Scheffer M (2009) Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theor Ecol 3: 163-174.
24. Dakos V, Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011a) Slowing down in spatially patterned ecosystems at the brink of collapse. Am Nat 177: 153.
25. Dakos V, van Nes EH, D'Odorico P, Scheffer M (2011b) Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down. Ecology 93: 264-271.
26. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, Ives AR, Kéfi S, Livina V, Seekell DA, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PLoS ONE 7: e41010.
27. Di Lorenzo E, Ohman MD (2013) A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110: 2496-2499.
28. Ditlevsen PD, Johnsen SJ (2010) Tipping points: early warning and wishful thinking. Geophys Res Lett 37: 2-5.
29. Doney SC, Sailley SF (2013) When an ecological regime shift is really just stochastic noise. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110: 2438-2439.
30. Drake JM, Griffen BD (2010) Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467: 456-457.
31. Fischer J, Peterson GD, Gardner TA, Gordon LJ, Fazey I, Elmqvist T, Felton A, Folke C, Dovers S (2009) Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 24: 549-554.
32. Gandhi A, Levin S, Orszag S (1998) Critical slowing down in time-to-extinction: an example of critical phenomena in ecology. J Theor Biol 192: 363-376.
33. Grebogi C, Ott E, Yorke JA (1983) Crises, sudden changes in chaotic attractors and transient chaos. Phys D Nonlinear Phenom 7: 181-200.
34. Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2008a) Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems. Theor Ecol 2: 3-12.
35. Guttal V, Jayaprakash C (2008b) Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecol Lett 11: 450-460.
36. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47: 103-145.
37. Hastings A (1998) Transients in spatial ecological models. In: Bascompte J, Solé RV (eds) Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics in ecology. Springer, Berlin, pp 189-198.
38. Hastings A, Wysham DB (2010) Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol Lett 13: 464-472.
39. Hastings A, Hom CL, Ellner S, Turchin P, Godfray HCJ (1993) Chaos in ecology: is mother nature a strange attractor?Annu Rev Ecol Syst 24: 1-33.
40. Hirota M, Holmgren M, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 334: 232-235.
41. Holling CSS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4: 1-23.
42. Jackson JB, Kirby MX, Berger WH, Bjorndal KA, Botsford LW, Bourque BJ, Bradbury RH, Cooke R, Erlandson J, Estes JA, Hughes TP, Kidwell S, Lange CB, Lenihan HS, Pandolfi JM, Peterson CH, Steneck RS, Tegner MJ, Warner RR (2001) Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science (New York) 293: 629-637.
43. Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, Alados CL, Pueyo Y, Papanastasis VP, Elaich A, de Ruiter PC, Alados L, Ruiter PCD (2007) Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems. Nature 449: 213-217.
44. Kéfi S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M (2012) Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions. Oikos 122: 641-648.
45. Lade SJ, Gross T (2012) Early warning signals for critical transitions: a generalized modeling approach. PLoS Comput Biol 8: e1002360.
46. Lenton TM, Myerscough RJ, Marsh R, Livina VN, Price AR, Cox SJ, Team G (2009) Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 367: 871-884.
47. Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 370: 1185-1204.
48. Lewontin RC (1969) The meaning of stability. In: Woodwell GW, Smith HH (eds) Brookhaven symposia in biology. Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, pp 13-25.
49. Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP, Gårdmark A, Kornilovs G, Otto SA, Möllmann C (2012) Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. PLoS ONE 7: e38410.
50. Litzow MA, Urban JD, Laurel BJ (2008) Increased spatial variance accompanies reorganization of two continental shelf ecosystems. Ecol Appl 18: 1331-1337.
51. Ludwig D, Jones DD, Holling CS (1978) Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: the spruce budworm and forest. J Anim Ecol 47: 315-332.
52. May RM (1977) Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states. Nature 269: 471-477.
53. Melbourne BA, Hastings A (2008) Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity. Nature 454: 100-103.
54. Mumby PJ, Hastings A, Edwards HJ (2007) Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Nature 450: 98-101.
55. Perretti CT, Munch SB (2012) Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems. Ecol Appl 22: 1772-1779.
56. Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Keeler B (2011) Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol Evol 26: 398-404.
57. Renne PR, Deino AL, Hilgen FJ, Kuiper KF, Mark DF, Mitchell WS, Morgan LE, Mundil R, Smit J (2013) Time scales of critical events around the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Science 339: 684-687.
58. Rietkerk M, van de Koppel J (2008) Regular pattern formation in real ecosystems. Trends Ecol Evol 23: 169-175.
59. Rietkerk M, van de Koppel J, Dekker SC, de Ruiter PC (2004) Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Science 305: 1926-1929.
60. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-596.
61. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.
62. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Lenton TM, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Dakos V, van de Koppel J, van de Leemput IA, Levin SA, van Nes EH, Pascual M, Vandermeer J (2012) Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338: 344-348.
63. Schooler SS, Salau B, Julien MH, Ives AR (2011) Alternative stable states explain unpredictable biological control of Salvinia molesta in Kakadu. Nature 470: 86-89.
64. Schreiber SJ (2003) Allee effects, extinctions, and chaotic transients in simple population models. Theor Popul Biol 64: 201-209.
65. Schreiber SJ, Rittenhouse S (2004) From simple rules to cycling in community assembly. Oikos 93: 430-358.
66. Schreiber S, Rudolf VHW (2008) Crossing habitat boundaries: coupling dynamics of ecosystems through complex life cycles. Ecol Lett 11: 576-587.
67. Seekell DA, Carpenter SR, Pace ML (2011) Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts. Am Nat 178: 442-451.
68. Staver AC, Archibald S, Levin S (2011) Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states. Ecology 92: 1063-1072.
69. Veraart AJ, Faassen EJ, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Lürling M, Scheffer M (2012) Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system. Nature 481: 357-359.
70. Walker BH (1993) Rangeland ecology - understanding and managing change. Ambio 22(2-3): 80-87.
71. Walters C, Kitchell JF (2001) Cultivation/depensation effects on juvenile survival and recruitment: implications for the theory of fishing. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58: 39-50.
72. Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon PG, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature 492: 419-422.
73. Williams JW, Blois JL, Shuman BN (2011) Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary. J Ecol 99: 664-677.
74. Wissel C (1984) A universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds. Oecologia 65: 101-107.