Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Global Change Biology

Volumn 19, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 2490-2499

  Rabasa, Sonia G ^a   Granda, Elena ^a   Benavides, Raquel ^a   Kunstler, Georges ^b   Espelta, Josep M ^c   Ogaya, Romá ^c,d   Peñuelas, Josep ^c,d   Scherer Lorenzen, Michael ^e   Gil, Wojciech ^f   Grodzki, Wojciech ^f   Ambrozy, Slawomir ^f   Bergh, Johan ^g   Hódar, José A ^h   Zamora, Regino ^h   Valladares, Fernando ^a  

^a MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^b Cemagref   (France)

^c CREAF   (Spain)

^d CSIC   (Spain)

^e UNIVERSITY OF FREIBURG   (Germany)

^f FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Poland)

^g SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^h UNIVERSITY OF GRANADA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Altitudinal gradient; Climate change; Forest; Generalized additive models; Species distribution

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; FOREST COVER; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; JUVENILE; SPECIES DIVERSITY; TAXONOMY; TREE;

ACER; ALTITUDE; ALTITUDINAL GRADIENT; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; EUROPE; FAGACEAE; FOREST; GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; PHYSIOLOGY; PINACEAE; PLANT DISPERSAL; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; TIME; TREE;

ALTITUDINAL GRADIENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; FOREST; GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION;

ACER; ALTITUDE; EUROPE; FAGACEAE; GLOBAL WARMING; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PINACEAE; PLANT DISPERSAL; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TIME FACTORS; TREES;

SPAIN; SWEDEN;

ABIES; ABIES ALBA; ACER; ACER PSEUDOPLATANUS; FAGUS; FAGUS SYLVATICA; ILEX; PICEA ABIES; PINUS SYLVESTRIS; QUERCUS ILEX;

EID: 84880135331     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12220     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Araújo MB, Luoto M (2007) The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 743-753.
2. Beckage B, Osborne B, Gavin DG, Pucko C, Siccama T, Perkins T (2008) A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 4197-4202.
3. Bertrand R, Gégout JC, Bontemps JD (2011) Niches of temperate tree species converge towards nutrient-richer conditions over ontogeny. Oikos, 120, 1479-1488.
4. Bodin J, Badeau V, Bruno E et al. (2013) Shifts of forest species along an elevational gradient in Southeast France: climate change or stand maturation? Journal of Vegetation Science, 24, 269-283.
5. Bond W, Midgley J (2001) Ecology of sprouting in woody plants: the persistence niche. Trends in ecology & evolution, 16, 45-51.
6. Breshears DD, Huxman TE, Adams HD, Zou CB, Davison JE (2008) Vegetation synchronously leans upslope as climate warms. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11591-11592.
7. Cavender-Bares J, Bazzaz FA (2000) Changes in drought response strategies with ontogeny in Quercus rubra: implications for scaling from seedlings to mature trees. Oecologia, 124, 8-18.
8. Collins RJ, Carson WP (2004) The effects of environment and life stage on Quercus abundance in the eastern deciduous forest, USA: are sapling densities most responsive to environmental gradients? Forest Ecology and Management, 201, 241-258.
9. Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR (2011) Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science, 331, 324-327.
10. Danby RK, Hik DS (2007) Evindence of recent treeline dynamics in southernwest Yukon from aerial photographs. Arctic, 60, 411-420.
11. Donovan LA, Ehleringer JR (1994) Carbon isotope discrimination, water-use efficiency, growth, and mortality in a natural shrub population. Oecologia, 100, 347-354.
12. García D, Zamora R (2003) Persistence, multiple demographic strategies and conservation in long-lived Mediterranean plants. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 921-926.
13. Gehrig-Fasel J, Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2007) Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: climate change or land abandonment? Journal of Vegetation Science, 18, 571-582.
14. Gottfried M, Pauli H, Futschik A et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 111-115.
15. Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman & Hall, London.
16. Hättenschwiler S, Körner C (1995) Responses to recent climate warming of Pinus sylvestris and Pinus cembra within their montane transition zone in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Vegetation Science, 6, 357-368.
17. Hegland SJ, Nielsen A, Lázaro A, Bjerknes AL, Totland Ø (2009) How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions? Ecology Letters, 12, 184-195.
18. Hickler T, Vohland K, Feehan J et al. (2012) Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 50-63.
19. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
20. Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15, 56-61.
21. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE), pp. 79-131. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA.
22. Jump AS, Hunt JM, Peñuelas J (2006) Rapid climate change-related growth decline at the southern range edge of Fagus sylvatica. Global Change Biology, 12, 2163-2174.
23. Jump AS, Huang TJ, Chou CH (2012) Rapid altitudinal migration of mountain plants in Taiwan and its implications for high altitude biodiversity. Ecography, 35, 204-210.
24. Kammer A, Hagedorn F, Shevchenko I et al. (2009) Treeline shifts in the Ural mountains affect soil organic matter dynamics. Global Change Biology, 15, 1570-1583.
25. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11823-11826.
26. Kullman L, Öberg L (2009) Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the Swedish Scandes: a landscape ecological perspective. Journal of Ecology, 97, 415-429.
27. Lenoir J, Gégout JC, Marquet PA, de Ruffray P, Brisse H (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science, 320, 1768-1771.
28. Lenoir J, Gégout JC, Pierrat JC, Bontemps JD, Dhôte JF (2009) Differences between tree species seedling and adult altitudinal distribution in mountain forests during the recent warm period (1986-2006). Ecography, 32, 765-777.
29. Lenoir J, Gégout JC, Guisan A et al. (2010) Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate. Ecography, 33, 295-303.
30. Lenoir J, Graae BJ, Aarrestad PA et al. (2013) Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. Global Change Biology, 19, 1470-1481.
31. McCullagh P, Nelder JA (1989) Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall, London.
32. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N et al. (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology, 12, 1969-1976.
33. Moiseev PA, Shiyatov SG (2003) Vegetation dynamics at the treeline ecotone in the Ural high lands, Russia. In: Alpine Diversity in Europe- A Europe-Wide Assesment of Biological Richness and Change (eds Nagy L, Grabherr G, Körner C, Thompson DBA), pp. 423-435. Ecological studies, 167. Springer, Berlin.
34. Nicotra B, Atkin OK, Bonser SP et al. (2010) Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate. Trends in Plant Science, 15, 684-692.
35. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 637-669.
36. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
37. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Grabherr G (1996) Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems-upward shifting of alpine plants. World Resource Review, 8, 382-390.
38. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Dullinger S et al. (2012) Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits. Science, 336, 353-355.
39. Peñuelas J, Boada M (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain). Global Change Biology, 9, 131-140.
40. Peñuelas J, Filella I (2001) Phenology. Responses to a warming world. Science, 294, 793-795.
41. Peñuelas J, Filella I, Comas P (2002) Changed plant and animal life cycles from 1952 to 2000 in the Mediterranean region. Global Change Biology, 8, 531-544.
42. Peñuelas J, Ogaya R, Boada M, Jump AS (2007) Migration, invasion and decline: changes in recruitment and forest structure in a warming-linked shift of European beech forest in Catalonia (NE Spain). Ecography, 30, 829-838.
43. Peñuelas J, Canadell JG, Ogaya R (2011) Increased water-use efficiency during the 20th century did not translate into enhanced tree growth. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 597-608.
44. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R foundation for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at: http://www.R-project.org (accessed August 2012).
45. Rosenzweig C, Casassa G, Karoly DJ et al. (2007) Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE), pp. 79-131. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA.
46. le Roux PC, Heikkinen RK, Virtanen R, Luoto M (2012) Biotic interactions affect the elevational ranges of high-latitude plant species. Ecography, 35, 1048-1056.
47. Savolainen O, Pyhäjärvi T, Knürr T (2007) Gene flow and local adaptation in trees. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 38, 595-619.
48. Scherrer D, Körner C (2011) Topographically controlled thermal-habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 406-416.
49. Stone H, Carlson JH (1979) Atmospheric lapse rate regimes and their parameterization. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 36, 415-423.
50. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 8245-8250.
51. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB et al. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 9, 137-152.
52. Tylianakis JM, Didham RK, Bascompte J, Wardle DA (2008) Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecology Letters, 11, 1351-1363.
53. Van der Putten WH, Macel M, Visser ME (2010) Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 365, 2025-2034.
54. Vitasse Y, Hoch G, Randin CF, Lenz A, Kollas C, Körner C (2012) Tree recruitment of European tree species at their current upper elevational limits in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Biogeography, 39, 1439-1449.
55. Walther G, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
56. Wood SN, Augustin NH (2002) GAMs with integrated model selection using penalized regression splines and applications to environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 157-177.
57. Woodall CW, Oswalt CM, Westfall JA, Perry CH, Nelson MD, Finley AO (2009) An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 1434-1444.
58. Zhu K, Woodall CW, Clark JS (2012) Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change. Global Change Biology, 18, 1042-1052.