메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 22, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 1007-1018

Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: Implications for ecological forecasting

Author keywords

Abundance; Ecological niche model; Empirical model; Habitat suitability model; Intercomparison; Maize; Mechanistic model; South Africa; Species distribution model

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CROP PRODUCTION; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; MAIZE; MAXIMUM ENTROPY ANALYSIS; NDVI; NICHE; PRODUCTIVITY;

EID: 84880043838     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12034     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (119)

References (52)
  • 1
    • 70349326537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall in arid zones: possible effects of climate change on the population ecology of blue cranes
    • Altwegg, R. & Anderson, M.D. (2009) Rainfall in arid zones: possible effects of climate change on the population ecology of blue cranes. Functional Ecology, 23, 1014-1021.
    • (2009) Functional Ecology , vol.23 , pp. 1014-1021
    • Altwegg, R.1    Anderson, M.D.2
  • 2
    • 33845633261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    • Araújo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 42-47.
    • (2007) Trends in Ecology and Evolution , vol.22 , pp. 42-47
    • Araújo, M.B.1    New, M.2
  • 3
    • 84856292226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using expert knowledge to satisfy data needs: mapping invasive plant distributions in the western United States
    • Bradley, B.A. & Marvin, D.C. (2011) Using expert knowledge to satisfy data needs: mapping invasive plant distributions in the western United States. Western North American Naturalist, 71, 302-315.
    • (2011) Western North American Naturalist , vol.71 , pp. 302-315
    • Bradley, B.A.1    Marvin, D.C.2
  • 5
    • 84880046351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • South Africa: a country study. Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, Washington, DC.
    • Byrnes, R.M. (1996) South Africa: a country study. Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, Washington, DC.
    • (1996)
    • Byrnes, R.M.1
  • 7
    • 84880035929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crop Estimates Committee, Crop estimates. Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Pretoria, South Africa.
    • Crop Estimates Committee (2011) Crop estimates. Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (2011)
  • 8
    • 34547518471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions
    • Dormann, C.F. (2007) Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology, 8, 387-397.
    • (2007) Basic and Applied Ecology , vol.8 , pp. 387-397
    • Dormann, C.F.1
  • 9
    • 33645917058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
    • Elith, J.H., Graham, C.P., Anderson, R. etal. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 129-151
    • Elith, J.H.1    Graham, C.P.2    Anderson, R.3
  • 10
    • 79952401260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using species distribution models to identify suitable areas for biofuel feedstock production
    • Evans, J.M., Fletcher, R.J. & Alavalapati, J. (2010) Using species distribution models to identify suitable areas for biofuel feedstock production. GCB Bioenergy, 2, 63-78.
    • (2010) GCB Bioenergy , vol.2 , pp. 63-78
    • Evans, J.M.1    Fletcher, R.J.2    Alavalapati, J.3
  • 11
    • 84880035113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • FAO, FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Available at: (accessed 27 May 2010).
    • FAO (2009) FAO Statistical Yearbook 2009. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Available at: http://www.fao.org (accessed 27 May 2010).
    • (2009)
  • 12
    • 0030953391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models
    • Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (2002) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
    • (2002) Environmental Conservation , vol.24 , pp. 38-49
    • Fielding, A.H.1    Bell, J.F.2
  • 13
    • 77953167567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography
    • Franklin, J. (2010) Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 321-330.
    • (2010) Diversity and Distributions , vol.16 , pp. 321-330
    • Franklin, J.1
  • 14
    • 0034610199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
    • Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
    • (2000) Ecological Modelling , vol.135 , pp. 147-186
    • Guisan, A.1    Zimmermann, N.E.2
  • 15
    • 84880042951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • LANDIS, a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession-LANDIS 2.0 users' guide. Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
    • He, H.S., Mladenoff, D.J. & Boeder, J. (1996) LANDIS, a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession-LANDIS 2.0 users' guide. Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
    • (1996)
    • He, H.S.1    Mladenoff, D.J.2    Boeder, J.3
  • 16
    • 33845270432 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions
    • Hijmans, R.J. & Graham, C.H. (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 2272-2281.
    • (2006) Global Change Biology , vol.12 , pp. 2272-2281
    • Hijmans, R.J.1    Graham, C.H.2
  • 20
    • 77953939943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Species distribution models do not account for abundance: the case of arthropods on Terceira Island
    • Jiménez-Valverde, A., Diniz, F., de Azevedo, E.B. & Borges, P.A.V. (2009) Species distribution models do not account for abundance: the case of arthropods on Terceira Island. Annales Zoologici Fennici, 46, 451-464.
    • (2009) Annales Zoologici Fennici , vol.46 , pp. 451-464
    • Jiménez-Valverde, A.1    de Diniz, F.2    Azevedo, E.B.3    Borges, P.A.V.4
  • 22
    • 0038025698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055
    • Jones, P.G. & Thornton, P.K. (2003) The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change, 13, 51-59.
    • (2003) Global Environmental Change , vol.13 , pp. 51-59
    • Jones, P.G.1    Thornton, P.K.2
  • 23
    • 0037232266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation
    • Keating, B.A., Carberry, P.S., Hammer, G.L. etal. (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 267-288.
    • (2003) European Journal of Agronomy , vol.18 , pp. 267-288
    • Keating, B.A.1    Carberry, P.S.2    Hammer, G.L.3
  • 25
    • 42049101227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools
    • Kremen, C., Cameron, A., Moilanen, A. etal. (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools. Science, 320, 222 -226.
    • (2008) Science , vol.320 , pp. 222-226
    • Kremen, C.1    Cameron, A.2    Moilanen, A.3
  • 26
    • 79955532530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species: application to the common carp
    • Kulhanek, S.A., Leung, B. & Ricciardi, A. (2011) Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species: application to the common carp. Ecological Applications, 21, 203-213.
    • (2011) Ecological Applications , vol.21 , pp. 203-213
    • Kulhanek, S.A.1    Leung, B.2    Ricciardi, A.3
  • 27
    • 0028975546 scopus 로고
    • The niche concept revisited - mechanistic models and community context
    • Leibold, M.A. (1995) The niche concept revisited - mechanistic models and community context. Ecology, 76, 1371-1382.
    • (1995) Ecology , vol.76 , pp. 1371-1382
    • Leibold, M.A.1
  • 29
    • 84880041898 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MA, Millennium ecosystem assessment: Ecosystems and human well-being - synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. Available at:(accessed 24 February 2011).
    • MA (2005) Millennium ecosystem assessment: Ecosystems and human well-being - synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.MAweb.org (accessed 24 February 2011).
    • (2005)
  • 30
    • 84880041515 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eastern area (2005/2006; 2006/2007; 2007/2008; 2008/2009). ARC Grain Crops Institute, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
    • Ma'ali, S.H., Bruwer, D.de.V. & Prinsloo, M.A. (2006-2009) Eastern area (2005/2006; 2006/2007; 2007/2008; 2008/2009). ARC Grain Crops Institute, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
    • (2006)
    • Ma'ali, S.H.1    Bruwer, D.2    Prinsloo, M.A.3
  • 31
    • 66149110788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing niche-and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change
    • Morin, X. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Comparing niche-and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology, 90, 1301-1313.
    • (2009) Ecology , vol.90 , pp. 1301-1313
    • Morin, X.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 32
    • 17044419637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can models of presence-absence be used to scale abundance? Two case studies considering extremes in life history
    • Nielsen, S.E., Johnson, C.J., Heard, D.C. & Boyce, M.S. (2005) Can models of presence-absence be used to scale abundance? Two case studies considering extremes in life history. Ecography, 28, 197-208.
    • (2005) Ecography , vol.28 , pp. 197-208
    • Nielsen, S.E.1    Johnson, C.J.2    Heard, D.C.3    Boyce, M.S.4
  • 33
    • 1242344212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
    • Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 53-67.
    • (2004) Global Environmental Change , vol.14 , pp. 53-67
    • Parry, M.L.1    Rosenzweig, C.2    Iglesias, A.3    Livermore, M.4    Fischer, G.5
  • 34
    • 0031743237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability of NDVI and its relationship to climate for North American shrublands and grasslands
    • Paruelo, J.M. & Lauenroth, W.K. (1998) Interannual variability of NDVI and its relationship to climate for North American shrublands and grasslands. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 721-733.
    • (1998) Journal of Biogeography , vol.25 , pp. 721-733
    • Paruelo, J.M.1    Lauenroth, W.K.2
  • 35
    • 0035116909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning: a case study
    • Pearce, J. & Ferrier, S. (2001) The practical value of modelling relative abundance of species for regional conservation planning: a case study. Biological Conservation, 98, 33-43.
    • (2001) Biological Conservation , vol.98 , pp. 33-43
    • Pearce, J.1    Ferrier, S.2
  • 36
    • 0141856572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?
    • Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
    • (2003) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.12 , pp. 361-371
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 37
    • 27944446350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions
    • Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
    • (2006) Ecological Modelling , vol.190 , pp. 231-259
    • Phillips, S.J.1    Anderson, R.P.2    Schapire, R.E.3
  • 38
    • 79961135005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Core Development Team, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at:(accessed 21 January 2012).
    • R Core Development Team (2011) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at: http://www.R-project.org (accessed 21 January 2012).
    • (2011) R: a language and environment for statistical computing
  • 39
    • 0036740078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change
    • Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A., Norman, J. & McSweeney, K. (2002) The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 377-392.
    • (2002) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.11 , pp. 377-392
    • Ramankutty, N.1    Foley, J.A.2    Norman, J.3    McSweeney, K.4
  • 41
    • 84859434888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methods 1: delineation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland into quinary catchments
    • ed. by R.E. Schulze, B.C. Hewitson, K.R. Barichievy, M.A. Tadross, R.P. Kunz, M.J. Horan and T.G. Lumsden ) -. WRC Report 1562/1/10. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • Schulze, R.E. & Horan, M.J.C. (2010) Methods 1: delineation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland into quinary catchments. Methodological approaches to assessing eco-hydrological responses to climate change in South Africa (ed. by R.E. Schulze, B.C. Hewitson, K.R. Barichievy, M.A. Tadross, R.P. Kunz, M.J. Horan and T.G. Lumsden ), pp. 63-74. WRC Report 1562/1/10. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (2010) Methodological approaches to assessing eco-hydrological responses to climate change in South Africa , pp. 63-74
    • Schulze, R.E.1    Horan, M.J.C.2
  • 42
    • 84880035254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SiQ, Point frame sampling: producer independent crop estimate system (PICES). Available at:(accessed 11 February 2011).
    • SiQ (2007) Point frame sampling: producer independent crop estimate system (PICES). Available at: http://www.siq.co.za (accessed 11 February 2011).
    • (2007)
  • 43
    • 27644512193 scopus 로고
    • SIRI, Soil and Irrigation Research Institute, Department of Agriculture and Water Supply, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • SIRI (1987) Land type series. Memoirs on the agricultural natural resources of South Africa. Soil and Irrigation Research Institute, Department of Agriculture and Water Supply, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (1987) Land type series. Memoirs on the agricultural natural resources of South Africa
  • 45
    • 33646253574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale
    • Thuiller, W., Richardson, D.M., Pyšek, P., Midgley, G.F., Hughes, G.O. & Rouget, M. (2005) Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology, 11, 2234-2250.
    • (2005) Global Change Biology , vol.11 , pp. 2234-2250
    • Thuiller, W.1    Richardson, D.M.2    Pyšek, P.3    Midgley, G.F.4    Hughes, G.O.5    Rouget, M.6
  • 46
    • 84880037064 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulnerability of maize production to climate change and adaptation assessment in South Africa. Climate Change Impacts in Southern Africa Report to the National Climate Change Committee. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • du Toit, A.S., Prinsloo, M.A., Durand, W. & Kiker, G. (2000) Vulnerability of maize production to climate change and adaptation assessment in South Africa. Climate Change Impacts in Southern Africa Report to the National Climate Change Committee. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (2000)
    • du Toit, A.S.1    Prinsloo, M.A.2    Durand, W.3    Kiker, G.4
  • 48
    • 70149121500 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance
    • VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L.P., Johnson, C.N. & Williams, S.E. (2009) Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. The American Naturalist, 174, 282-291.
    • (2009) The American Naturalist , vol.174 , pp. 282-291
    • VanDerWal, J.1    Shoo, L.P.2    Johnson, C.N.3    Williams, S.E.4
  • 49
    • 0029539987 scopus 로고
    • Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya
    • Wafula, B.M. (1995) Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya. Agricultural Systems, 49, 399-412.
    • (1995) Agricultural Systems , vol.49 , pp. 399-412
    • Wafula, B.M.1
  • 50
    • 38949178138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa
    • Walker, N.J. & Schulze, R.E. (2008) Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 124, 114-124.
    • (2008) Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , vol.124 , pp. 114-124
    • Walker, N.J.1    Schulze, R.E.2
  • 51
    • 33746614322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relations between NDVI, grassland production, and crop yield in the central great plains
    • Wang, J., Rich, P.M., Price, K.P. & Kettle, W.D. (2005) Relations between NDVI, grassland production, and crop yield in the central great plains. Geocarto International, 20, 5-11.
    • (2005) Geocarto International , vol.20 , pp. 5-11
    • Wang, J.1    Rich, P.M.2    Price, K.P.3    Kettle, W.D.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.