메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 425-437

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: Secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Crop suitability; Indirect impacts; Maize; South Africa; Species distribution modelling; Wheat

Indexed keywords

ABANDONED LAND; ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; BUFFER ZONE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION PLANNING; CROP PRODUCTION; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION; FOOD SECURITY; LAND USE CHANGE; MAIZE; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; PRIORITIZATION; PROTECTED AREA; SHIFTING CULTIVATION; SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE; WHEAT;

EID: 84858059504     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00875.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (49)

References (52)
  • 2
    • 84859434703 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anonymous. The National Protected Area expansion strategy 2008-2012: a framework for implementation. South African National Biodiversity Institute; National Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.
    • Anonymous. (2008) The National Protected Area expansion strategy 2008-2012: a framework for implementation. South African National Biodiversity Institute; National Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.
    • (2008)
  • 3
    • 0342441053 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anonymous. South African Department of Agriculture, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • Anonymous. (2009) Abstract of agricultural statistics. p. 115. South African Department of Agriculture, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (2009) Abstract of agricultural statistics , pp. 115
  • 4
    • 33845633261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    • Araujo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22, 42-47.
    • (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution , vol.22 , pp. 42-47
    • Araujo, M.B.1    New, M.2
  • 5
    • 78650001956 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of landscape predictors on climate change modelling of species distributions: a case study with Eucalyptus fastigata in southern New South Wales, Australia
    • Austin, M.P. & Van Niel, K.P. (2011) Impact of landscape predictors on climate change modelling of species distributions: a case study with Eucalyptus fastigata in southern New South Wales, Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 9-19.
    • (2011) Journal of Biogeography , vol.38 , pp. 9-19
    • Austin, M.P.1    Van Niel, K.P.2
  • 7
    • 84859421072 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • South Africa: a Country Study. Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Available at: (accessed 1 May 2011)
    • Byrnes, R.M. (1996) South Africa: a Country Study. Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Available at: (accessed 1 May 2011)
    • (1996)
    • Byrnes, R.M.1
  • 8
    • 70350397840 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change
    • Coetzee, B.W.T., Robertson, M.P., Erasmus, B.F.N., Van Rensburg, B.J. & Thuiller, W. (2009) Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18, 701-710.
    • (2009) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.18 , pp. 701-710
    • Coetzee, B.W.T.1    Robertson, M.P.2    Erasmus, B.F.N.3    Van Rensburg, B.J.4    Thuiller, W.5
  • 9
    • 75749118974 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contested paradigms of 'viability' in redistributive land reform: perspectives from southern Africa
    • Cousins, B. & Scoones, I. (2010) Contested paradigms of 'viability' in redistributive land reform: perspectives from southern Africa. Journal of Peasant Studies, 37, 31-66.
    • (2010) Journal of Peasant Studies , vol.37 , pp. 31-66
    • Cousins, B.1    Scoones, I.2
  • 10
    • 34547518471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions
    • Dormann, C.F. (2007) Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology, 8, 387-397.
    • (2007) Basic and Applied Ecology , vol.8 , pp. 387-397
    • Dormann, C.F.1
  • 11
    • 33645917058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
    • Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P. et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 129-151
    • Elith, J.1    Graham, C.H.2    Anderson, R.P.3
  • 13
    • 84859421073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for projecting ecological change. In, Princeton, NJ.
    • Estes, L.D., Bradley, B.A., Beukes, H., Hole, D.G., Lau, M., Oppenheimer, M., Schulze, R., Tadross, M.A. & Turner, W.R. (2011) Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for projecting ecological change. In, Princeton, NJ.
    • (2011)
    • Estes, L.D.1    Bradley, B.A.2    Beukes, H.3    Hole, D.G.4    Lau, M.5    Oppenheimer, M.6    Schulze, R.7    Tadross, M.A.8    Turner, W.R.9
  • 15
    • 0029478629 scopus 로고
    • Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients
    • Franklin, J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography, 19, 474-499.
    • (1995) Progress in Physical Geography , vol.19 , pp. 474-499
    • Franklin, J.1
  • 17
    • 84859421070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • GTI. Geo Terra Image: South African Crop Field Boundaries. In: National Crop Statistics Consortium Available at: (accessed 1 September 2009).
    • GTI. (2008) Geo Terra Image: South African Crop Field Boundaries. In: National Crop Statistics Consortium Available at: (accessed 1 September 2009).
    • (2008)
  • 18
    • 0034610199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
    • Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
    • (2000) Ecological Modelling , vol.135 , pp. 147-186
    • Guisan, A.1    Zimmermann, N.E.2
  • 19
    • 1842583695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A generic framework for spatial prediction of soil variables based on regression kriging
    • Hengl, T., Heuvelink, G.B. & Rossiter, D.G. (2004) A generic framework for spatial prediction of soil variables based on regression kriging. Geoderma, 120, 75-93.
    • (2004) Geoderma , vol.120 , pp. 75-93
    • Hengl, T.1    Heuvelink, G.B.2    Rossiter, D.G.3
  • 21
    • 33746917488 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa
    • Hewitson, B.C. & Crane, R.G. (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 1315-1337.
    • (2006) International Journal of Climatology , vol.26 , pp. 1315-1337
    • Hewitson, B.C.1    Crane, R.G.2
  • 22
    • 33845270432 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions
    • Hijmans, R.J. & Graham, C.H. (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 2272-2281.
    • (2006) Global Change Biology , vol.12 , pp. 2272-2281
    • Hijmans, R.J.1    Graham, C.H.2
  • 25
    • 0037232266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation
    • Keating, B.A., Carberry, P.S., Hammer, G.L. et al. (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 267-288.
    • (2003) European Journal of Agronomy , vol.18 , pp. 267-288
    • Keating, B.A.1    Carberry, P.S.2    Hammer, G.L.3
  • 26
    • 0032983765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fragmentation of South African renosterveld shrublands: effects on plant community structure and conservation implications
    • Kemper, J., Cowling, R.M. & Richardson, D.M. (1999) Fragmentation of South African renosterveld shrublands: effects on plant community structure and conservation implications. Biological Conservation, 90, 103-111.
    • (1999) Biological Conservation , vol.90 , pp. 103-111
    • Kemper, J.1    Cowling, R.M.2    Richardson, D.M.3
  • 27
    • 77950338779 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Restoration of old fields in Renosterveld: a case study in a Mediterranean-type shrubland of South Africa
    • ed. by V.A. Cramer and R.J. Hobbs. Island Press, Washington, DC.
    • Krug, C.B. & Krug, R.M. (2007) Restoration of old fields in Renosterveld: a case study in a Mediterranean-type shrubland of South Africa. Old fields: dynamics and restoration of abandoned famland (ed. by V.A. Cramer and R.J. Hobbs ), pp. 265-285. Island Press, Washington, DC.
    • (2007) Old fields: dynamics and restoration of abandoned famland , pp. 265-285
    • Krug, C.B.1    Krug, R.M.2
  • 30
    • 33745609520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations
    • Long, S.P., Ainsworth, E.A., Leakey, A.D.B., Nosberger, J. & Ort, D.R. (2006) Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science, 312, 1918-1921.
    • (2006) Science , vol.312 , pp. 1918-1921
    • Long, S.P.1    Ainsworth, E.A.2    Leakey, A.D.B.3    Nosberger, J.4    Ort, D.R.5
  • 31
    • 0036881087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot
    • Midgley, G.F., Hannah, L., Millar, D., Rutherford, M.C. & Powrie, L.W. (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 445-451.
    • (2002) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.11 , pp. 445-451
    • Midgley, G.F.1    Hannah, L.2    Millar, D.3    Rutherford, M.C.4    Powrie, L.W.5
  • 34
    • 1842764872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The threat of transformation: quantifying the vulnerability of grasslands in South Africa
    • Neke, K.S. & Du Plessis, M.A. (2004) The threat of transformation: quantifying the vulnerability of grasslands in South Africa. Conservation Biology, 18, 466-477.
    • (2004) Conservation Biology , vol.18 , pp. 466-477
    • Neke, K.S.1    Du Plessis, M.A.2
  • 36
    • 0037413628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
    • Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , pp. 37-42
    • Parmesan, C.1    Yohe, G.2
  • 38
    • 0141856572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?
    • Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
    • (2003) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.12 , pp. 361-371
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 39
    • 0038738303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating combinations of on-and off-reserve conservation strategies for the Agulhas Plain, South Africa: a financial perspective
    • Pence, G.Q.K., Botha, M.A. & Turpie, J.K. (2003) Evaluating combinations of on-and off-reserve conservation strategies for the Agulhas Plain, South Africa: a financial perspective. Biological Conservation, 112, 253-273.
    • (2003) Biological Conservation , vol.112 , pp. 253-273
    • Pence, G.Q.K.1    Botha, M.A.2    Turpie, J.K.3
  • 40
    • 27944446350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
    • Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
    • (2006) Ecological Modelling , vol.190 , pp. 231-259
    • Phillips, S.J.1    Anderson, R.P.2    Schapire, R.E.3
  • 41
    • 55949114100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimizing dispersal corridors for the cape proteaceae using network flow
    • Phillips, S.J., Williams, P., Midgley, G. & Archer, A. (2008) Optimizing dispersal corridors for the cape proteaceae using network flow. Ecological Applications, 18, 1200-1211.
    • (2008) Ecological Applications , vol.18 , pp. 1200-1211
    • Phillips, S.J.1    Williams, P.2    Midgley, G.3    Archer, A.4
  • 42
    • 0036557940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • People on the land: changes in global population and croplands during the 20(th) century
    • Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A. & Olejniczak, N.J. (2002) People on the land: changes in global population and croplands during the 20(th) century. Ambio, 31, 251-257.
    • (2002) Ambio , vol.31 , pp. 251-257
    • Ramankutty, N.1    Foley, J.A.2    Olejniczak, N.J.3
  • 43
    • 0036275071 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prevalence of household food poverty in South Africa: results from a large, nationally representative survey
    • Rose, D. & Charlton, K.E. (2002) Prevalence of household food poverty in South Africa: results from a large, nationally representative survey. Public Health Nutrition, 5, 383-389.
    • (2002) Public Health Nutrition , vol.5 , pp. 383-389
    • Rose, D.1    Charlton, K.E.2
  • 44
    • 84859434888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methods I: delineation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland into Quinary Carchments
    • WRC Report 1562/1/10 (ed. by R.E. Schulze, B.S. Hewitson, K.R. Barichievy, M.A. Tadross, R.P. Kunz, M.J.C. Horan and T.G. Lumsden). Water Resources Commission, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • Schulze, R.E. & Horan, M.J.C. (2010) Methods I: delineation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland into Quinary Carchments. Methodological approaches to assessing eco-hydrological responses to climate change in South Africa. WRC Report 1562/1/10 (ed. by R.E. Schulze, B.S. Hewitson, K.R. Barichievy, M.A. Tadross, R.P. Kunz, M.J.C. Horan and T.G. Lumsden ). Water Resources Commission, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (2010) Methodological approaches to assessing eco-hydrological responses to climate change in South Africa
    • Schulze, R.E.1    Horan, M.J.C.2
  • 45
    • 84859420155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SIQ. Point frame sampling: producer independent crop estimate system (PICES). Available at: (accessed 1 September 2009).
    • SIQ. (2007) Point frame sampling: producer independent crop estimate system (PICES). Available at: (accessed 1 September 2009).
    • (2007)
  • 46
    • 84859434702 scopus 로고
    • SIRI. Land type series. Memoirs on the Agricultural Natural Resources of South Africa. In. Soil and Irrigation Research Institute, Department of Agriculture and Water Supply, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • SIRI. (1987) Land type series. Memoirs on the Agricultural Natural Resources of South Africa. In. Soil and Irrigation Research Institute, Department of Agriculture and Water Supply, Pretoria, South Africa.
    • (1987)
  • 48
    • 4744352914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions
    • Thuiller, W., Brotons, L., Araujo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. (2004) Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography, 27, 165-172.
    • (2004) Ecography , vol.27 , pp. 165-172
    • Thuiller, W.1    Brotons, L.2    Araujo, M.B.3    Lavorel, S.4
  • 50
    • 79955545366 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria
    • Warren, D.L. & Seifert, S.N. (2011) Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecological Applications, 21, 335-342.
    • (2011) Ecological Applications , vol.21 , pp. 335-342
    • Warren, D.L.1    Seifert, S.N.2
  • 51
  • 52
    • 84859420156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change, carbon dioxide and global crop production: food security and uncertainty
    • in press. (ed. by A. Dinar and R. Mendelson). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
    • Ziska, L.H. (in press) Climate change, carbon dioxide and global crop production: food security and uncertainty. Handbook on climate change and agriculture (ed. by A. Dinar and R. Mendelson ). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
    • Handbook on climate change and agriculture
    • Ziska, L.H.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.