Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

Atmospheric Environment

Volumn 77, Issue , 2013, Pages 767-780

  Yue, Xu ^a   Mickley, Loretta J ^a   Logan, Jennifer A ^a   Kaplan, Jed O ^b  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b EPFL   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Aerosol concentration; Ensemble projection; Fuel load; Wildfire

Indexed keywords

AEROSOL CONCENTRATION; CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELS; ENSEMBLE PROJECTION; FUEL LOADS; METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES; ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL; PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES; WILDFIRE;

AEROSOLS; ARID REGIONS; CLIMATE MODELS; FORESTRY; PARAMETERIZATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

FIRES;

ORGANIC CARBON;

AEROSOL COMPOSITION; ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION; BLACK CARBON; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ECOREGION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FUTURE PROSPECT; PARAMETERIZATION; SEMIARID REGION; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; VISIBILITY; WILDFIRE;

AEROSOL; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DESERT; FIRE; FOGO SELVAGEM; HUMIDITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TEMPERATURE; UNITED STATES;

AEROSOLS; CLIMATES; FIRES; FORESTRY; MODELS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

CALIFORNIA; NEVADA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84879722025     PISSN: 13522310     EISSN: 18732844     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.06.003     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Andreae M.O., Merlet P. Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2001, 15:955-966.
2. Bailey R., Avers P., King T., McNab W. Ecoregions and Subregions of the United States (Map) 1994, USDA For. Serv., Washington, D. C.
3. Balshi M.S., McGuirez A.D., Duffy P., Flannigan M., Walsh J., Melillo J. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology 2009, 15:578-600. 10.1111/J.1365-2486.2008.01679.X.
4. Bessie W.C., Johnson E.A. The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in subalpine forests. Ecology 1995, 76:747-762.
5. Bond T.C., Bhardwaj E., Dong R., Jogani R., Jung S., Roden C., Streets D.G., Trautmann N.M. Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2007, 21:GB2018. 10.1029/2006GB002840.
6. Christensen J.H., Hewitson B., Busuioc A., Chen A., Gao X., Held I., Jones R., Kolli R.K., Kwon W.-T., Laprise R., Rueda V.M.A., Mearns L., Menéndez C.G., Räisänen J., Rinke A., Sarr A., Whetton P. Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: the Physical Science Basis 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
7. Cooke W.F., Liousse C., Cachier H., Feichter J. Construction of a 1°×1° fossil fuel emission data set for carbonaceous aerosol and implementation and radiative impact in the ECHAM4 model. Journal of Geophysical Research 1999, 104:22137-22162.
8. Crevoisier C., Shevliakova E., Gloor M., Wirth C., Pacala S. Drivers of fire in the boreal forests: data constrained design of a prognostic model of burned area for use in dynamic global vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research 2007, 112:D24112. 10.1029/2006jd008372.
9. Crimmins M.A., Comrie A.C. Interactions between antecedent climate and wildfire variability across south-eastern Arizona. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2004, 13:455-466. 10.1071/Wf03064.
10. Duncan B.N., Martin R.V., Staudt A.C., Yevich R., Logan J.A. Interannual and seasonal variability of biomass burning emissions constrained by satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research 2003, 108:4100. 10.1029/2002jd002378.
11. Easterling D.R., Karl T.R., Mason E.H., Hughes P.Y., Bowman D.P. United States Historical Climatology Network (U.S. HCN) Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Data 1996, ORNL/CDIAC-87, NDP-019/R3, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
12. Flannigan M.D., Harrington J.B. Astudy of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80). Journal of Applied Meteorology 1988, 27:441-452.
13. Flannigan M.D., Logan K.A., Amiro B.D., Skinner W.R., Stocks B.J. Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 2005, 72:1-16. 10.1007/S10584-005-5935-Y.
14. Flannigan M.D., Krawchuk M.A., de Groot W.J., Wotton B.M., Gowman L.M. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2009, 18:483-507. 10.1071/Wf08187.
15. Gillett N.P., Weaver A.J., Zwiers F.W., Flannigan M.D. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letter 2004, 31:L18211. 10.1029/2004gl020876.
16. Guenther A., Karl T., Harley P., Wiedinmyer C., Palmer P.I., Geron C. Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2006, 6:3181-3210.
17. Hansen J., Sato M., Nazarenko L., Ruedy R., Lacis A., Koch D., Tegen I., Hall T., Shindell D., Santer B., Stone P., Novakov T., Thomason L., Wang R., Wang Y., Jacob D., Hollandsworth S., Bishop L., Logan J., Thompson A., Stolarski R., Lean J., Willson R., Levitus S., Antonov J., Rayner N., Parker D., Christy J. Climate forcing in Goddard Institute for space studies SI2000 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research 2002, 107:4347. 10.1029/2001JD001143.
18. Littell J.S., McKenzie D., Peterson D.L., Westerling A.L. Climate and wildfire area burned in western U. S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecological Applications 2009, 19:1003-1021.
19. Lobert J.M., Keene W.C., Logan J.A., Yevich R. Global chlorine emissions from biomass burning: reactive chlorine emissions inventory. Journal of Geophysical Research 1999, 104:8373-8389.
20. Maurer E.P., Brekke L., Pruitt T., Duffy P.B. Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 2007, 88. 10.1029/2007EO470006.
21. McKenzie D., Raymond C.L., Kellogg L.K.B., Norheim R.A., Andreu A.G., Bayard A.C., Kopper K.E., Elman E. Mapping fuels at multiple scales: landscape application of the fuel characteristic classification system. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2007, 37:2421-2437. 10.1139/X07-056.
22. Meehl G.A., Covey C., Delworth T., Latif M., McAvaney B., Mitchell J.F.B., Stouffer R.J., Taylor K.E. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2007, 88:1383-1394. 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383.
23. Mesinger F., DiMego G., Kalnay E., Mitchell K., Shafran P.C., Ebisuzaki W., Jovic D., Woollen J., Rogers E., Berbery E.H., Ek M.B., Fan Y., Grumbine R., Higgins W., Li H., Lin Y., Manikin G., Parrish D., Shi W. North American regional reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2006, 87:343-360. 10.1175/Bams-87-3-343.
24. Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P., Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakicenovic N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.J. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463:747-756. 10.1038/Nature08823.
25. Ottmar R.D., Sandberg D.V., Riccardi C.L., Prichard S.J. An overview of the fuel characteristic classification system - quantifying, classifying, and creating fuelbeds for resource planning. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2007, 37:2383-2393. 10.1139/X07-077.
26. Park R.J., Jacob D.J., Chin M., Martin R.V. Sources of carbonaceous aerosols over the United States and implications for natural visibility. Journal of Geophysical Research 2003, 108:4355. 10.1029/2002JD003190.
27. Park R.J., Jacob D.J., Kumar N., Yantosca R.M. Regional visibility statistics in the United States: natural and transboundary pollution influences, and implications for the Regional Haze Rule. Atmospheric Environment 2006, 40:28. 10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2006.04.059.
28. Pechony O., Shindell D.T. Fire parameterization on a global scale. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114:D16115. 10.1029/2009jd011927.
29. Philippi T.E. Multiple regression: herbivory. Design and Analysis of Ecological Experiments 1993, Chapman & Hall, New York. S. Scheiner, J. Gurevitch (Eds.).
30. Pitchford M.L., Malm W.C. Development and applications of a standard visual index. Atmospheric Environment 1994, 28:1049-1054. 10.1016/1352-2310(94)90264-X.
31. Prichard S.J., Peterson D.L., Jacobson K. Fuel treatments reduce the severity of wildfire effects in dry mixed conifer forest, Washington, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 2010, 40:1615-1626. 10.1139/X10-109.
32. Schoennagel T., Veblen T.T., Romme W.H. The interaction of fire, fuels, and climate across Rocky Mountain forests. BioScience 2004, 54:661-676.
33. Spracklen D.V., Mickley L.J., Logan J.A., Hudman R.C., Yevich R., Flannigan M.D., Westerling A.L. Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114:D20301. 10.1029/2008jd010966.
34. Thonicke K., Spessa A., Prentice I.C., Harrison S.P., Dong L., Carmona-Moreno C. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model. Biogeosciences 2010, 7:1991-2011. 10.5194/Bg-7-1991-2010.
35. Val Martin M., Honrath R.E., Owen R.C., Pfister G., Fialho P., Barata F. Significant enhancements of nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and ozone in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere resulting from North American boreal wildfires. Journal of Geophysical Research 2006, 111:D23s60. 10.1029/2006jd007530.
36. Van Wagner C.E. The Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System 1987, Canadian Forest Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, Canada.
37. Westerling A.L., Gershunov A., Cayan D.R., Barnett T.P. Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western US wildfires by ecosystem province. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2002, 11:257-266. 10.1071/Wf02009.
38. Westerling A.L., Hidalgo H.G., Cayan D.R., Swetnam T.W. Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 2006, 313:940-943. 10.1126/Science.1128834.
39. Wotawa G., Trainer M. The influence of Canadian forest fires on pollutant concentrations in the United States. Science 2000, 288:324-328.
40. Wotton B.M., Flannigan M.D. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. Forestry Chronicle 1993, 69:187-192.
41. Wu S., Mickley L.J., Jacob D.J., Rind D., Streets D.G. Effects of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone in the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 2008, 113:D18312. 10.1029/2007JD009639.