Analysis of technological progression by quantitative measures: A comparison of two technologies

Technology Analysis and Strategic Management

Volumn 25, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 687-706

  Suominen, Arho ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TURKU   (Finland)

^b VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND   (Finland)

Author keywords

bibliometric; metrics; technology forecasting

Indexed keywords

COMPARATIVE STUDY; DATABASE; FORECASTING METHOD; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 84879511375     PISSN: 09537325     EISSN: 14653990     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2013.802930     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Abraham, B. P. and Moitra, S. D. 2001. Innovation assessment through patent analysis. Technovation, 21: 245 - 52. (doi:10.1016/S0166-4972(00)00040-7)
2. Ayres, R. U. 1969. Technological forecasting and long-range planning, New York: McGraw-Hill.
3. Ayres, R. U. 1989. The future of technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 36: 49 - 60. (doi:10.1016/0040-1625(89)90009-7)
4. Barbir, F. 2005. PEM fuel cells: Theory and practice, 1, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Academic Press.
5. Borgman, C. L. and Furner, J. 2002. Scholarly communication and bibliometrics. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 36: 3 - 72.
6. Cameron, H., Loveridge, D., Cabrera, J., Castanier, L., Presmanes, B. and Vasquez, L. 1996. Technology foresight: perspectives for European and international co-operation, Manchester: Manchester Business School.
7. Chao, C.-C., Yang, J.-M. and Jen, W.-Y. 2005. Determining technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991 to. Technovation, 27: 268 - 79. (doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2006.09.003)
8. Cozzens, S., Gatchair, S., Kang, J., Kim, K.-S., Lee, H. J., Ordonez, G. and Porter, A. L. 2010. Emerging technologies: Quantitative identification and measurement. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 22: 361 - 76. (doi:10.1080/09537321003647396)
9. Cropper, M. A., Geiger, S. and Jollie, D. M. 2004. Fuel cells: A survey of current developments. Journal of Power Sources, 131: 57 - 61. (doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2003.11.080)
10. Daim, T. U., Rueda, G., Martin, H. and Gerdsri, P. 2006. Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73: 981 - 1012. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.04.004)
11. Ding, Y., Chowdhury, G. G. and Foo, S. 2001. Bibliometric cartography of information retrieval research by using co-word analysis. Information Processing & Management, 37: 817 - 42. (doi:10.1016/S0306-4573(00)00051-0)
12. Fisher, J. and Pry, R. 1971. A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3: 75 - 88. (doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7)
13. Gompertz, B. 1825. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115: 513 - 83. (doi:10.1098/rstl.1825.0026)
14. Green, M., Emery, K., Hishikawa, Y. and Warta, W. 2009. Solar cell efficiency table (Version 33). Progress in Photovotaics: Research and Applications, 17: 85 - 94. (doi:10.1002/pip.880)
15. Griliches, Z. 1998. Patent statistics as economic indicators: A survey, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
16. Gupta, V. K. and Pangannaya, N. B. 2000. Carbon nanotubes: Bibliometric analysis of patents. World Patent Information, 22: 185 - 9. (doi:10.1016/S0172-2190(00)00040-5)
17. Holton, G. 1962. Scientific research and scholarship notes toward the design of proper scales. Daedalus, 91: 362 - 99.
18. Huang, L., Guo, Y. and Porter, A. L. 2010. Identifying emerging roles of nanoparticles in biosensors. Journal of Business Chemistry, 7: 15 - 30.
19. Huang, L., Li, J. and Li, X. A bibliometric research on key technologies in the process of solar cell industrialization. Proceedings of the 4th international conference on product innovation management, i and ii, S.H. Hu and H. Thota, 316-22. 4th international conference on product innovation management. August 22-23. Wuhan: Hubei Peoples Press.
20. Järvenpää, H., Mäkinen, S. and Seppänen, M. 2011. Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology's life cycle. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78: 283 - 93. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.020)
21. Joly, P. B. and de Looze., M. A. 1996. An analysis of innovation strategies and industrial differentiation through patent applications: The case of plant biotechnology. Research Policy, 25: 1027 - 46. (doi:10.1016/S0048-7333(96)00891-8)
22. Kajikawa, Y., Takeda, Y. and Matsushima, K. 2010. Computer-assisted roadmapping: A case study in energy research. Foresight, 12: 4 - 15. (doi:10.1108/14636681011035726)
23. Kajikawa, Y., Yoshikawa, J., Takeda, Y. and Matsushima, K. 2008. Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75: 771 - 82. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.05.005)
24. Kamarudin, S., Achmad, F. and Daud, W. 2009. Overview on the application of direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) for portable electronic devices. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34: 6902 - 16. (doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2009.06.013)
25. Karki, M. M. 1997. Patent citation analysis: A policy analysis tool. World Patent Information, 19: 269 - 72. (doi:10.1016/S0172-2190(97)00033-1)
26. Kaufman, L. and Rousseeuw, P. 1990. Finding groups in data: An introduction to cluster analysis, New York: Wiley.
27. Kostoff, R. N. and Schaller, R. R. 2001. Science and technology roadmaps. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48: 132 - 43. (doi:10.1109/17.922473)
28. Kurzweil, P. 2009. " History: Fuel cells ". In Encyclopedia of electrochemical power sources, Edited by: Garche, J., Dyer, C., Moseley, P., Ogumi, Z., Rand, D. and Scrosati, B. 579 - 95. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
29. Lenz, R. C. and Lanford, H. W. Jr. 1973. Trend extrapolation: Workhorse of technological forecasting. Industrial Marketing Management, 3: 57 - 65. (doi:10.1016/0019-8501(73)90020-5)
30. Mann, D. L. 2003. Better technology forecasting using systematic innovation methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70: 779 - 95. (doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00357-8)
31. Martin, B. R. 1995. Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7: 139 - 68. (doi:10.1080/09537329508524202)
32. Meyer, M. 2000a. Does science push technology? Patents citing scientific literature. Research Policy, 29: 409 - 34. (doi:10.1016/S0048-7333(99)00040-2)
33. Meyer, M. 2000b. Patent citations in a novel field of technology what can they tell about interactions between emerging communities of science and technology?. Scientometrics, 48: 151 - 78. (doi:10.1023/A:1005692621105)
34. Moed, H. F., Bruin, R. E. and Leeuwen, T. N. 1995. New bibliometric tools for the assessment of national research performance: Database description, overview of indicators and first applications. Scientometrics, 33: 381 - 422. (doi:10.1007/BF02017338)
35. Moon, J., Tuominen, A. and Suominen, A. 2012. Forecasting a change in technology: Are dye-sensitized solar cells a source of ubiquitous energy?. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 12: 177 - 94. (doi:10.1504/IJTPM.2012.046925)
36. Narin, F. 1994. Patent bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 30: 147 - 55. (doi:10.1007/BF02017219)
37. Narin, F., Noma, E. and Perry, R. 1987. Patents as indicators of corporate technological strength. Research Policy, 16: 143 - 55. (doi:10.1016/0048-7333(87)90028-X)
38. 2 films. Nature, 353: 737 - 40. (doi:10.1038/353737a0)
39. Popper, R. 2008. " Foresight methodology ". In The handbook of technology foresight, Edited by: Georghiou, L., Cassigena Harper, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and Popper, R. 44 - 90. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
40. Porter, A. L. and Newman, N. C. 2011. Mining external R&D. Technovation, 31: 171 - 6. (doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2011.01.001)
41. Porter, A. L., Mason, T. W., Banks, J. and Rossini, F. 1991. Forecasting and management of technology, New York: Wiley-Interscience.
42. Schiebel, E., Hörlesberger, M., Roche, I., Francois, C. and Besagni, D. 2010. An advanced diffusion model to identify emergent research issues: The case of optoelectronic devices. Scientometrics, 83: 765 - 81. (doi:10.1007/s11192-009-0137-4)
43. Suominen, A. and Tuominen, A. 2010. Analyzing the direct methanol fuel cell technology in portable applications by a historical and bibliometric analysis. Journal of Business Chemistry, 7 (3): 117 - 30.
44. Thom, N., Rohrbeck, R. and Dunaj, M. Innovation instruments for translating future insights into managerial actions. The XXI ISPIM conference. June 6-9, Bilbao, Spain.
45. Tijssen, R. J. 2009. Internationalisation of pharmaceutical R&D: How globalised are Europe's largest multinational companies?. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 21: 859 - 79. (doi:10.1080/09537320903182330)
46. Tseng, F.-M., Cheng, A.-C. and Peng, Y.-N. 2009. Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76: 897 - 909. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.02.003)
47. Tseng, Yuen-Hsien, Chi-Jen, Lin and Yu-I, Lin. 2007. Text mining techniques for patent analysis. Information Processing & Management, 43 (5): 1216 - 47. (doi:10.1016/j.ipm.2006.11.011)
48. Van der Eerden, C. and Saelens, F. H. 1991. The use of science and technology indicators in strategic planning. Long Range Planning, 24: 18 - 25. (doi:10.1016/0024-6301(91)90180-V)
49. Vanston, J. H. 1995. Technology forecasting: An aid to effective technology management, Austin, TX: Technology Futures.
50. Watts, R. J. and Porter, A. L. 1997. Innovation forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56: 25 - 47. (doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00050-4)
51. Yoon, B. U., Yoon, C. B. and Park, Y. T. 2002. On the development and application of a self-organizing feature map-based patent map. R&D Management, 32: 291 - 300.
52. Yoon, B., Lee, S. and Lee, G. 2010. Development and application of a keyword-based knowledge map for effective R&D planning. Scientometrics, 85: 803 - 20. (doi:10.1007/s11192-010-0294-5)
53. Young, P. 1993. Technological growth curves: A competition of forecasting models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 44: 375 - 89. (doi:10.1016/0040-1625(93)90042-6)