Changes in seasonal maximum daily precipitation in China over the period 1961-2006

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 33, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 1646-1657

  Yang, Long ^a,b   Villarini, Gabriele ^b,c,d   Smith, James A ^b   Tian, Fuqiang ^a   Hu, Heping ^a  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b Princeton University   (United States)

^c Towers Watson   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

Author keywords

China; East Asia summer monsoon; Extreme rainfall; Generalized extreme value distribution; Stationarity

Indexed keywords

CHINA; EXTREME RAINFALL; GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION; STATIONARITY; SUMMER MONSOON;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; CLIMATOLOGY; ESTIMATION; WATER SUPPLY;

RAIN;

CLIMATE VARIATION; EXTREME EVENT; MONSOON; OROGRAPHY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SEASONAL VARIATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

CHINA; NORTH CHINA PLAIN;

EID: 84878788920     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3539     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke RA, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines RB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM. 2003. Abrupt climate change. Science 299(5615): 2005-2010.
2. Brillinger DR. 2001. Time series: Data Analysis and Theory. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics: Philadelphia, PA.
3. Chen LX, Zhou W, Li Y, Luo YF, Zhu W. 2004. Characteristics of the climate change and its formation mechanism in China in last 80 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 62: 634-646 (in Chinese).
4. Chu PS, Zhao X, Ruan Y, Grubbs M. 2009. Extreme rainfall events in the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48(3): 502-516.
5. Cleveland W. 1979. Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(368): 829-836.
6. Coles S. 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme values. Springer: London.
7. Conover WJ. 1998. Practical Nonparametric Statistics. John Wiley & Sons: New York.
8. Ding Y. 1994. Monsoons over China. Springer: New York.
9. Ding Y, Chan J. 2005. The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89(1-4): 117-142.
10. Dong Q, Chen X, Chen T. 2011. Characteristics and changes of extreme precipitation in the Yellow-Huaihe and Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers Basins, China. Journal of Climate 24(14): 3781-3795.
11. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO. 2000. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289(5487): 2068-2074.
12. Feng S, Nadarajah S, Hu Q. 2007. Modeling annual extreme precipitation in china using the generalized extreme value distribution. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 85(5): 559-613.
13. Ferro C, Hannachi A, Stephenson D. 2005. Simple nonparametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather. Journal of Climate 18(21): 4344-4354.
14. Frei C, Schär C. 2001. Detection Probability of Trends in Rare Events: Theory and Application to Heavy Precipitation in The Alpine Region. American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA, ETATS-UNIS.
15. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM. 1993. Statistical Methods in Water Resources Elsevier: New York.
16. Hosking JRM. 1990. L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 52(1): 105-124.
17. Hu ZZ. 1997. Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(D16): 19403-19412, DOI: 10.1029/97jd01052.
18. Jiang D, Wang K, Li Z, Wang Q. 2011. Variability of extreme summer precipitation over Circum-Bohai-Sea region during 1961-2008. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104(3-4): 501-509.
19. Karl TR, Easterling DR. 1999. Climate extremes: selected review and future research directions. Climate Change 42(1): 309-325.
20. Karl TR, Knight RW. 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 10.
21. Katz RW, Brown BG. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change 21(3): 289-302.
22. Kendall MG. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Charlies Griffin: London.
23. Kottegoda NT, Rosso R. 2008. Applied Statistics for Civil and Environmental Engineers. Blackwell: Oxford, UK.
24. Laio F. 2004. Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling goodness of fit tests for extreme value distributions with unknown parameters. Water Resources Research 40(9): W09308, DOI: 10.1029/2004wr003204.
25. Li J, Zeng Q. 2002. A unified monsoon index. Geophysical Research Letters 29(8): 1274-1277, DOI: 10.1029/2001GL013874.
26. Li J, Zeng Q. 2003. A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20(2): 299-302.
27. Li J, Yu R, Yuan W, Chen H. 2011. Changes in duration-related characteristics of late-summer precipitation over Eastern China in the past 40 years. Journal of Climate 24(21): 5683-5690.
28. Liang L, Li L, Liu Q. 2011a. Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008. Journal of Hydrology 404(1-2): 67-76.
29. Liang F, Tao S, Wei J, Bueh C. 2011b. Variation in summer rainfall in North China during the period 1956-2007 and links with atmospheric circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 28(2): 363-374.
30. Liu X, Sun A. 1995. An inhomogeneity test study of annual precipitation series. Meteorological Monthly 21: 3-6 (in Chinese).
31. Liu Q, Yang Z, Cui B. 2008. Spatial and temporal variability of annual precipitation during 1961-2006 in Yellow River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology 361(3-4): 330-338.
32. Liu X, Xie X, Yin ZY, Liu C, Gettelman A. 2011. A modeling study of the effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation over East Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 106(3-4): 343-354.
33. Mann HB. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3): 245-259.
34. Milly PC, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV. 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438(7066): 347-350.
35. Morrison JE, Smith JA. 2002. Stochastic modeling of flood peaks using the generalized extreme value distribution. Water Resources Research 38(12): 1305-1316, DOI: 10.1029/2001wr000502.
36. Pan A, Hou A, Tian F, Ni G, Hu H. 2012. A hydrologically-enhanced distributed urban drainage model and its application to Beijing City. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 17(6): 667-678.
37. Pegram GGS. 2000. Testing for change in variability and persistence in time series, in Detecting Trend and Other Changes in Hydrological Data, WMO/TD 1013, Kundzewicz Z and Robson A (eds). World Climate Programme: Geneva, Swizerland, 104-109.
38. Peterson TC, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Groisman P, Nicholls N, Plummer N, Torok S, Auer I, Boehm R, Gullett D, Vincent L, Heino R, Tuomenvirta H, Mestre O, Szentimrey T, Salinger J, Forland EJ, Hanssen-Bauer I, Alexandersson H, Jones P, Parker D. 1998. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: a review. International Journal of Climatology 18(13): 1493-1517.
39. Pettitt AN. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Applied Statistics 28(2): 126-135.
40. Potter KW. 1979. Annual precipitation in the Northeast United-States-long memory, short-memory, or no memory. Water Resources Research 15(2): 340-346, DOI: 10.1029/WR015i002 p00340.
41. Qian W, Lin X. 2005. Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 90(3-4): 193-207.
42. R Development Core Team. 2010. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria.
43. Ren F, Wu G, Dong W, Wang X, Wang Y, Ai W, Li W. 2006. Changes in tropical cyclone precipitation over China. Geophysical Research Letters 33(20): L20702, DOI: 10.1029/2006gl027951.
44. Salas JD. 1993. Analysis and modeling of hydrologic time series. In Handbook of Hydrology, Maidment D (ed). McGraw Hill: New York 19: 1-72.
45. Sen PK. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324): 1379-1389.
46. Serinaldi F. 2009. Assessing the applicability of fractional order statistics for computing confidence intervals for extreme quantiles. Journal of Hydrology 376(3-4): 528-541.
47. Swanson KL, Tsonis AA. 2009. Has the climate recently shifted? Geophysical Research Letters 36: L06711, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL 037022.
48. Tu K, Yan Z, Dong W. 2010. Climatic jumps in precipitation and extremes in drying North China during 1954-2006. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 88(1): 29-42, DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2010-103.
49. Villarini G. 2011. Analyses of annual and seasonal maximum daily rainfall accumulations for Ukraine, Moldova and Romania. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3394.
50. Villarini G, Serinaldi F, Smith JA, Krajewski WF. 2009. On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century. Water Resources Research 45(8): W08417, DOI: 10.1029/2008wr007645.
51. Villarini G, Smith JA, Ntelekos AA, Schwarz U. 2011. Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold analyses of daily rainfall accumulations for Austria. Journal of Geophysical Research 116(D5): D05103, DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015038.
52. Voss R, May W, Roeckner E. 2002. Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. International Journal of Climatology 22(7): 755-777, DOI: 10.1002/joc.757.
53. Wang Y, Zhou L. 2005. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 32(9): L09707, DOI: 10.1029/2005gl022574.
54. Wang W, Shao Q, Peng S, Zhang Z, Xing W, An G, Yong B. 2011. Spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in precipitation during 1957-2007 in the Haihe River basin, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 25(7): 881-895.
55. Wu L. 2005a. Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophysical Research Letters 32(18): L18703, DOI: 10.1029/2005gl022937.
56. Wu Z. 2005b. Preliminary analysis of the information on meteorological station historical evolution and its impacts on homogeneity of observational records. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 16(4): 462-267 (in Chinese).
57. Xia X, Chen H, Goloub P, Zhang W, Chatenet B, Wang P. 2007. A compilation of aerosol optical properties and calculation of direct radiative forcing over an urban region in northern China. Journal of Geophysical Research 112(D12):DOI: 10.1029/2006jd008119.
58. Xu X, Du Y, Tang J, Wang Y. 2011. Variations of temperature and precipitation extremes in recent two decades over China. Atmospheric Research 101(1-2): 143-154.
59. Yao C, Qian W, Yang S, Lin Z. 2009. Regional features of precipitation over Asia and summer extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia and their associations with atmospheric-oceanic conditions. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 106(1-2): 57-73.
60. Ying M, Chen B, Wu G. 2011. Climate trends in tropical cyclone-induced wind and precipitation over mainland China. Geophysical Research Letters 38(1): L01702, DOI: 10.1029/2010gl045729.
61. You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Yan Y. 2008. Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D07101, DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009389.
62. You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flügel W-A, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J. 2011. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003. Climate Dynamics 36(11-12): 2399-2417.
63. Yu R, Wang B, Zhou T. 2004. Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L22212, DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021270.
64. Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. 2002. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology 259(1): 254-271.
65. Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z, Chen YD, Liu CL, Lin H. 2008. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. Journal of Hydrology 353(3-4): 215-227.
66. Zhang Q, Xu CY, Becker S, Zhang Z X, Chen YD, Coulibaly M. 2009. Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, China. Atmospheric Science Letters 10(2): 132-144.
67. Zhang Q, Jiang T, Chen YD, Chen X. 2010. Changing properties of hydrological extremes in south China: natural variations or human influences? Hydrological Processes 24(11): 1421-1432.
68. Zhang Q, Liu Y, Yang G, Zhang Z. 2011a. Precipitation and hydrological variations and related associations with large-scale circulation in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrological Processes 25(5): 740-751.
69. Zhang Q, Singh VP, Sun P, Chen X, Zhang Z, Li J. 2011b. Precipitation and streamflow changes in China: changing patterns, causes and implications. Journal of Hydrology 410(3-4): 204-216, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.017.
70. Zhao C, Tie X, Lin Y. 2006. A possible positive feedback of reduction of precipitation and increase in aerosols over eastern central China. Geophysical Research Letters 33(11): L11814, DOI: 10.1029/2006gl025959.
71. Zhou X, Ding Y, Wang P. 2010. Moisture transport in the Asian summer monsoon region and its relationship with summer precipitation in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica 24(1): 59-70.
72. Zhou M, Tian F, Lall U, Hu H. 2011. Insights from a joint analysis of Indian and Chinese monsoon rainfall data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 8(2): 3167-3187.